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НАУЧНЫЙ
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Yaskevitch Ya.S. Socio-cultural and geopolitical risks in modern society // Сетевой журнал «Научный результат». Серия «Социология и управление». - Т.1, №4(6), 2015.
95
UDC 316.3
DOI: 10.18413/2408-9338-2015-1-4-95-98
Yaskevich Ja.S.
SOCIO-CULTURAL AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS IN MODERN SOCIETY
Doctor of Philosophical Sciences, Professor, the Director of Social and Humanitarian Education Institute, Belarusian State Economic University, Nezavisimosti avenue, 4, Minsk, 220030, Republic of Belarus.
E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract. The specifics of political and socio-cultural risks in the context of globalization is revealed, the formation factors of geopolitical and local risks are described and the content models of contemporary geopolitical scenarios are analyzed.
Keywords: geopolitics; globalization; geopolitical risk; risk factors; sociocultural risk.
Яскевич Я. С.
СОЦИОКУЛЬТУРНЫЕ И ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ РИСКИ В СОВРЕМЕННОМ ОБЩЕСТВЕ_______________
доктор философских наук, профессор, директор Института социально-гуманитарного образования Белорусский государственный экономический университет, пр. Независимости, 4, Минск, 220030,
Республика Беларусь Электронный адрес: [email protected]
Аннотация. Выявляется специфика геоплитического и социокультурного риска в условиях глобализации, описываются факторы формирования геополитических и локальных рисков, рассматриваются содержательные модели современных геополитических сценариев.
Ключевые слова: геополитика; глобализация; геополитический риск; факторы риска;
социокультурный риск.
The radical transformations natural of the modern world economy, politics, social and cultural space increase the likelihood of unforeseen events, initiate the growth of socio-cultural and geopolitical scenarios and risks with such their threatening components and consequences as the risk of a state conquest, the risk of a state disintegration under the influence of external forces, at least the risk of a state sovereignty reduction as its ability to defend its interests at the international arena, triggering internal risk mechanisms [4, p. 212]. The globalization of the world history, accompanied by the aggravation of the social and political risks, the crises in economic, financial, social, political, environmental, social and spiritual spheres of modern civilization development highlights the problem of natural process regulation for mankind survival within the new conditions of existence [12, pp. 6-7].
The patterns that put before the subjects of the government some theoretical and practical issues, causing thereby their thoughtfulness, rationality and restraint in political decision-making and risk
behavior were revealed in the classical geopolitics [14, p. 153-154]. Geopolitics as a science determined in its relation to authorities that sometimes the benefits are provided for the subject that controls the key geostrategic points of space, and the strength and weakness of a geostrategic subject depends on its risk appetite, the degree of its self-sufficiency and the ability to control some key points. Space control is lost by the geopolitical subjects that do not have the necessary and sufficient opportunities to win and retain the territories which do not show the required signs of self-sufficiency [9, pp. 63-68]. The post-classical models of geopolitics expand the problematic field of scenarios and strategies for global development, complementing eurocentrism by the idea of interaction, interdependence, the unity of modern world in the context of globalization processes. According to the concept of civilizational and cultural synthesis developed by an American scholar Samuel Huntington, the world after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union will
Серия СОЦИОЛОГИЯ И УПРАВЛЕНИЕ SOCIAL STUDIES AND HUMANITIES Series
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РЕЗУЛЬТАТ
Yaskevitch Ya.S. Socio-cultural and geopolitical risks in modern society // Сетевой журнал «Научный результат». Серия «Социология и управление». - Т.1, №4(6), 2015.
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be determined not by an ideological confrontation but by interaction (competition and struggle) of 7-8 different civilizations [11, pp. 33-57]. The main axis of international relations will be between the West and the rest of the world, the Western countries will play a lesser role at the same time. Jacques Attali shares Huntington's ideas in respect to the idea that the Pacific civilization countries will move away the United States soon, which «steadily decreased their market share at mechanical engineering market» during the last 30 years and nothing new was invented except for a microprocessor [1, p. 64].
Classical geopolitics was not accidently called the geopolitics of power, because it was born in the era of the world redistribution between imperialist states. With this in mind, Huntington figuratively notices that the West has conquered the world not because of its ideas, values or religion superiority, but rather by the superiority of organizational violence application. In contrast to the doctrine of a new world order development and the concept of «controlled chaos» announced by Washington after the tragic events of September 11, 2001, nonclassical geopolitics is transformed into a global (civilization) geopolitics at the present stage. It should be based on the postulates about a single historical and cultural space, the diversity of geocivilizations, the tolerance of ideologies, political cultures, religions, the transition from the logic of confrontations and understanding of war as a continuation of political relations to the logic of compromise and cooperation [3, pp. 11-15].
The socio-cultural, civilizational and anthropological matrix of post-classical geopolitics is developed in response to regional rhythms, being the basis of an agreed cooperative interaction of a supersystem social, political, economic and sociocultural institutions. Today, the so-called Bialowieza geopolitical era (1991, Post-Cold-War era), which came after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the world socialist system, marking the end of «cold war» with the US claim for a unipolar world, should be transformed for the survival of humanity into globally communicative geopolitical era of the world history with the models of dialogue of cultures and civilizations, peoples and religions, a non-force model of decision-making at a national and a global level, in spite of still realistic scenarios and the forecasts regarding the configuration of the modern multi-polar world with economic, political, military and civilization «poles» and «power centers» [5, p. 112]. Considering that during the era of instability and permanent changes experienced by contemporary humanity, the prerequisites for making the influence on
the future world structure are developed, it is important to «fit» the ideals of mutual respect and tolerance, harmony and cooperation in the non-classical geopolitical picture of the world.
National interests are represented fairly fundamental at national and state level. The way of the problem solution concerning the relation of security at mega, macro and micro levels, taking into account civilizational-cultural dynamics and human interests - such issues require a rationally balanced position from modern geopolitical entities based on the ideas of global unified world history, the preservation of national self-sufficiency and consent. The harmonic combination of global and national aspects is particularly necessary in the current situations of globalization and permanent risks. In this respect, the arguments of advanced analysts noteworthy, the analysts who emphasize the radical changes in the system of international relations, such as the relations associated with the dynamic development of China, thus creating a kind of «faults» along East-West line, actualizing the phenomenon of so-called «diplomatic revolution». The reason for it is an economic rise of China and the rise of its military power, which began during the last years [6, p. 5-18].
The «faults» along the East-West line are revealed in the transformation of other countries. Thus, the modernization of India in the first half of the twentieth century was carried out mainly according to the model of Western artifacts with a significant preservation of traditional structures, the formation of the local bourgeoisie and the establishment of democratic institutions. However, the westernization of India did not lead to the interruption of traditions. Previously unknown forms of Indian civilization and the values of democracy, for which Congress acted «fit» through the archetypes of national consciousness, the Indian religious and philosophical heritage, and in particular through the concept of Mahatma Gandhi non-violence.
The panoramic picture of East countries and other countries transformation shows that the preservation of traditional values, their way of life, cultural and religious priorities that are inconsistent with globalism and mass culture are exposed to a real risk today. This is evidenced by regional conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and other countries (during the Cold War), the US armed intervention under the auspices of NATO in Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya (after the breakup of the Soviet Union), the «color revolutions» and similar scenarios of «regime change» in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine (the former Soviet Union), the events during the «Arab Spring» (the Middle East), in the course of
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Yaskevitch Ya.S. Socio-cultural and geopolitical risks in modern society // Сетевой журнал «Научный результат». Серия «Социология и управление». - Т.1, №4(6), 2015.
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the protest movements in Venezuela, Argentina (Latin America), etc. To minimize the global and local risks, their management and security provision in risk society, the recognition of self-sufficiency and the sovereignty of individual countries is important first of all, and secondly, understanding of the impossibility concerning a complete lack of risk in society; an organized social interaction of managing and managed entities, mediated by social norms, value regulatives and specific social conditions is necessary; the formation of governance mechanisms and the leveling of risks, an expert evaluation of risk level within a particular society and its security [2, p. 4-9].
Risk taking situations created at the present stage by the geopolitical strategies of the United States, give an impetus to the development of various models concerning the future world order. A unipolar vector of world development is not possible within these models. This statement is quite clearly stated in the report «Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds», prepared by the National Intelligence Council, which notes: «Due to the rapid growth of other countries a «unipolar moment» ended and the era of Pax-Americana - the era of American dominance in world politics, which began in 1945 is rapidly moving towards its conclusion» [15]. In the situations of an imminent choice of its historical path, many countries have to overcome sometimes manifested uncertainty, indecision, an economic and political instability, and to carry out a civilizational entry into the world economic and political space, focusing on the multivector nature of a national policy.
The cultural, historical, socio-political, economic and ethno-religious relations in the country are the essential components of national strategies. The adoption of adequate temporary solutions, the provision of public security at the national level aimed at the predictability of foreign economic relations development increase and the security of the external operation stability within individual and national corporations. In terms of unavoidable risk management an urgent need appears in a reasonable assessment of the national economy, the construction of a long-term economic strategy of the country, taking into account the imperatives, trends and the driving forces of the global economic system evolution in a globalized world, the real and potential resources of the national economy transformation, based on the world market conditions, the role and the place of the innovation policy in the knowledge economy formation [13, p. 9]. In this context, researchers pay attention to the potential risk groups: the risk of
nationalization and expropriation without an adequate compensation; The transfer risk associated with the possible restrictions on the conversion of local currency; the risk of a contract breach because of the country authority acts where a contracting company is located; the risk of a war and a civil unrest [8].
In modern world, the emergence and projecting of macro risks is carried out in the context of geostrategy of the leading countries. Thus, the concept of the Greater Middle East, stated in the Washington geo-strategy of the 1990s includes the richest countries of the Caspian basin and Arabian Peninsula (Iran, Turkey, Iraq) in terms of energy in the spheres of influence, the perimeter of which has military bases, and the economic and political development of which is influenced significantly.
The complex dynamics of some global processes of economic and political issues, the functioning of the global capital and energy market, the global banking system and the global exchange of goods and services, the trend towards the synchronization of international economic processes necessitate the need in analysis scenarios concerning the development of geopolitical risks. Today, the center of power offset in the Asia-Pacific region, the end of the «American» historical period (B. Bzezinski), gives rise to such geopolitical turns, which may threaten the security of most countries in the world, the protection of their national interests and independent existence.
The reasons of geopolitical and local risks are presented by economic factors related to the fact that the cause of political risks could be the lack of necessary financial resources for the performance of some reforms, the absence of a developed and a stable economic infrastructure, the illiquidity of state-owned shares of enterprises, the lack of a clear economic program, the lack of direct investments in the country, an unreasonable monetary policy, etc. They include also information factors that indicate the absence of clear and complete information about all current political processes, the lack aof analisys concerning a political situation in general, an inadequate response of the authorities to it, the lack of a clear calculation of gains and losses, the misunderstanding and ignoring of other participant interests in a political action, the struggle for dominance in the information space and «cyber wars», etc. Social factors are initiated by instability, aggression and the radicalism of a political course, the activity of separate political institutions, a low public support policy, political, ethnic and other conflicts, unemployment and a difficult economic
Серия СОЦИОЛОГИЯ И УПРАВЛЕНИЕ SOCIAL STUDIES AND HUMANITIES Series
Yaskevitch Ya.S. Socio-cultural and geopolitical risks in modern society // Сетевой журнал «Научный результат». Серия «Социология и управление». - Т.1, №4(6), 2015.
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situation, the presence of many unresolved social problems, etc. which may serve as a «detonator» for the escalation of national risks and conflicts into geopolitical ones (similar to modern Ukraine).
As the part of a modern risk-taking geostrategies, inter-civilizational models of world governance development the doctrines of power and influence growth of certain countries, such as China in Southeast Asia are hardly relevant. These are the doctrines launched by Barack Obama administration, combating the Eurasian integration process, the activities of the BRICS (as the implementation of a «silk» way new concept of five countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), the scenario of «regime change» and civil wars in some countries. In order to analyze the assessment of a political risk in international business practice different applied models are developed that differ from each other in terms of the study (mega, macro and microrisks) and in vector (oriented to a greater or lesser extent on the economic or political environment), etc. The task of applied risk research is performed to decrease the uncertainty, provide for possible negative and positive effects of it. The monitoring of a political risk is aimed at company foreign investment protection by the prediction of possible risks arising from the socio-political space [10]. A mixed (combined) approach synthesizes the information from experts and objective data, thus ensuring the formation of the most optimal model for a political risk study. Comparative rating systems, using similar methodologies are developed by the consulting firms Frost & Sullivan (the World Political Risk Forecast), Business International and Data Resources Inc. (Policon). Podkolzina I.A. specifies two financially-oriented rating systems: Institutional Investor's Country Credit Rating and Euromoney's Country Risk Index, covering 109 and 116 countries respectively. According to Euromoney model the country risk rating is made by combining a set of indicators such as the London interbank offer rate of interbank loans (LIBOR), the initial pricing, interbank loans, etc. [7].
The methodological analysis of modern geopolitical scenarios and risks should be carried out in the context of of national state integration into the world economic and political space, into the mechanisms of the global division of labor, in a close solid connection with the economic policy strategy, the development of market relations, the influence of national governments, as well with various political forces as domestic ao as abroad ones, making an impact on economic entity activities.
Currently the search for new socio-cultural and political scenarios of modern risk-taking society is aggressively manifested by the search for ways to overcome the negative trends of modern civilization and the implementation of the geopolitical strategy of a unipolar world, the ways of the world and a man humanization are substantiated, the attempts to joint efforts of the public for the prevention of the third world war are performed, the termination national disputes, the preservation of the environment, the overcoming of a human person alienation and its preservation is carried out.
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