CC BY
21УДК 332.02(470+510):616.9-036.2 DOI: 10.24412/2308-264X-2021-1-133-139
ЧЖУ ДАПЭНГ
К ВОПРОСУ О СОДЕЙСТВИИ СИНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОМУ РАЗВИТИЮ СЕВЕРОВОСТОЧНОГО КИТАЯ И ДАЛЬНЕГО ВОСТОКА РОССИИ В УСЛОВИЯХ COVID-19
Ключевые слова: китайско-российское сотрудничество, торговые отношения, модернизация, коронавирус, СевероВосточный Китай, Дальний Восток России, синергетическое развитие.
В статье рассмотрены проблемы активизации и эффективного использования резервов сотрудничества Северо-Восточного Китая и российского Дальнего Востока в сложных условиях пандемии коронавируса Covid-19. Показано, что пандемия создала объективно неблагоприятную ситуацию развития для исследуемых регионов, обладающих превосходными географическими преимуществами, богатыми ресурсами, прочным политическим взаимным доверием и созвучной философией развития. Ситуация осложняется тем, что вспышка Covid-19 сильно ударила по мировой экономике, породив ряд проблем, таких как дисбаланс в структуре глобальной торговли, разорванные производственные цепочки и деглобализация. Отмечается, что в этой ситуации Китай и Россия должны работать вместе, чтобы проложить путь к синергетическому развитию и создать новый механизм регионального синергетического развития. Кроме того, им следует развивать логистические и транспортные возможности в регионе, совместно стимулировать строительство китайско-российских пограничных портов и укреплять сотрудничество в высокотехнологичных областях с целью получения взаимной выгоды и взаимовыгодного взаимодействия. Таким образом можно поднять экономику Китая и России на более высокий уровень.
ZHU, DAPENG
TO THE QUESTION ON THE STUDY ON ASSISTANCE TO THE SYNERGETIC DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHEAST CHINA AND THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF COVID-19
Key words: Sino-Russian cooperation, trade relations, modernization, Covid-19, Northeast China, the Russian Far East, Synergetic Development.
In the article considers the problems of activating and effectively using the reserves of cooperation between Northeast China and the Russian Far East in the difficult conditions of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is shown that the pandemic has created an objectively unfavorable development situation for the studied regions, which have excellent geographical advantages, rich resources, strong political mutual trust and a consonant philosophy of development. The situation is complicate by the Covid-19 outbreak has hit the global economy hard, creating a range of problems such as imbalances in global trade patterns, disrupted production chains and de-globalization. It is noted that in this situation, China and Russia must work together to pave the way for synergistic development and create a new mechanism for regional synergetic development. In addition, they should develop logistics and transport capabilities in the region, jointly stimulate the construction of Sino-Russian border ports, and strengthen cooperation in high-tech areas in order to obtain mutual benefits and mutually beneficial interaction. In this way, the economies of China and Russia can be raised to a higher level.
The world economy has been savaged by the COVID-19, as many countries are confronted with a range of crises including the domestic economic downturn, external demand weakness, capital flow reversals, and slump in commodity prices. In this situation, China and Russia, striving to expand bilateral cooperation, need to develop a system of effective measures designed to decisively improve the situation in the sphere of bilateral cooperation. Moreover, China's Strategy of Revitalizing the Old Industrial Base in the Northeast [1] is in tune with Russia's Strategy of Developing the Far East, which also brings crucial opportunities for regional synergetic development.
1. The Impact of the Epidemic on the World Economy.
1.1. Broken global industrial chains. Today's world economy is featured with fragmentation in production across borders. As the COVID-19 rages on, the production capacity of all countries has been crippled. How the epidemic influences the world economy is manifested by its spreading along industrial chains. Bearing the brunt of the pandemic, many industries are threatened by broken industrial chains, given the sudden collapse of both their supply and demand end. In this sense, not only is the demand side unable to resume work and production in time, but the supply side has to stack their finished products in warehouses or on docks. The global industrial chain has magnified the impact of the epidemic on various economies, transforming all countries into a community of common destiny.
1.2. Structural disequilibrium of global trade and demand contraction. Most of the countries where the epidemic has not yet been brought under control are the Western countries, whose annual goods imports account for a large proportion of the world's total exports. The sharp decline in demand due to the spread of the epidemic and related prevention and control measures will undoubtedly take a toll on global trade [2]. Alongside the shrinking global demand, structural disequilibrium has become increasingly severe problems. Although the export of medical products with the function of stemming the
epidemic has seen unprecedented explosive growth, other foreign trade industries are overwhelmingly negative.
1.3. Growing de-globalization. The ongoing epidemic has led to the emergence of de-globalization as well as the shift of production chains. In the face of Covid-19, since de-industrialization policies have been carried out for a long time, many developed countries cannot produce sufficient anti-epidemic products. For instance, the US government formulated policies to transfer the medical industry back to the United States, so that they can work out anti-epidemic products independently without relying on other countries. This phenomenon indicates that countries will readjust their industrial layout and bolster self-reliance to better cope with emergencies. Specifically, this is manifested by relocating the production of critical raw materials and intermediate products back to their own countries, thereby forming domestic value chains controlled by the local governments. Manufacturing industries moving back to where they originally were might have become a trend, and meanwhile, localization and regional division of production will become the mainstream within a certain period.
2. Advantages of Synergistic Cooperation between Northeast China and the Russian Far
East.
2.1. Both Northeast China and the Russian Far East have relatively brought the epidemic under control.
The Russia Far East borders Northeast China. They both achieved remarkable results in the prevention and control of Covid-19. According to the real-time data from Johns Hopkins University, as of January 19, 2021, a total of confirmed cases in the nine regions of the Russian Far East was 162,919, the current number of confirmed cases was 21,548, while a total of confirmed cases in China was 98,164, so they both have kept the epidemic down to relatively manageable proportions. Comparatively, German, as the core of the Eastern European production network, had cumulatively 2,059,382 confirmed cases, and the figure in other G7 countries in Europe was also large, so the overall epidemic was quite serious. The United States, as the core of the North American production network, is the most hard-stricken area in the world, with 24,078,772 confirmed cases. The copious confirmed cases in Europe and North America give a huge blow to its production network. In terms of the increment of confirmed cases, despite the resurgence of the epidemic, the number has stayed low in Northeast China and the Russian Far East, providing a realistic ground for expanding collaboration as well as economic and trade exchanges between the two regions [3].
2.2. Superior geographical advantages.
The 3,300-kilometer boundary line between China and Russia is where Northeast China borders the Russian Far East, which offers superior geographical advantages. For the Russian Far East, such geographic advantages with Northeast Asian countries facilitate its trade cooperation with other countries. However, geopolitically, South Korea and Japan are pro-West, so they tend to conduct economic and trade cooperation with the Western countries [4]. Under such circumstances, China is its most suitable partner for cooperation. Among the three provinces in Northeast China, Heilongjiang Province has always been a critical window for opening China to Russia; Jilin Province, situated in the middle of Northeast China, has more frequently carried out exchanges with Russia, as the border cities progress considerably in recent years. For example, Hunchun Port has gained strong momentum in trades with Russia. Liaoning Province, though does not directly border the Russia Far East, is the only coastal province among the three, hence figuring prominently in Northeast China for trades with Russia thanks to its advantageous port resources. Its port advantage complements the backland preponderance of the other two provinces. Northeast China and the Russia Far East are bordered by land and connected by ports. These convenient natural conditions bring them together, constituting a paramount prerequisite for synergetic development.
2.3. Complementary advantages.
Northeast China and the Russia Far East not only possess superior geographical locations for collaboration but also have complementary advantages, that is, the complementarity of production factors. This complementarity gives impetus to the cross-border flow of resource endowments and production factors between the two regions, thus forming a synergistic effect [5].
The advantage of Northeast China lies in the abundant agricultural resources and is somewhat competitive in processing grains such as soybeans and corn, and livestock products including meat and dairy products [6]; the resource endowment advantages of the Russia Far East are the rich natural resources including oil, metal minerals, natural gas, coal, iron ore and lignite. Such differences between
the two sides in resource endowments have formed complementarity. From the perspective of human resources, the Russia Far East is abundant in land resources but sparsely populated. The growth rate of its population has been negative for many years, leading to an acute shortage of labor in the agricultural industry. Whereas the Northeast region is not only agriculturally significant but also has relatively ample labor. Therefore, the two sides have a certain degree of complementarity in agricultural labor resources
[7].
2.4. Consonant philosophy for development.
Northeast China had advanced rapidly when the People's Republic of China was initially found. After the reform and opening up, the Northeast region, affected by the economic system and structure, has lagged behind that of the eastern coastal areas in terms of economic growth rate, when imbalance appeared in regional economic development. In order to solve the above problems, the Strategy of Revitalizing Northeast China was promulgated in 2003, followed by a series of related policies supporting the development of the Northeast. In recent years, Russia has also put forward major initiatives to drive the economic development of the Far East. The national policy of active cooperation with the East, Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) strategy and development strategies in various stages have all benefited the Far East. The superimposed effect of these strategies emerges progressively in the Far East [8]. It can be observed that one of the primary orientations for the development of the Far East is to face the Asia-Pacific region and expand economic ties and cooperation with Asia.
Northeast China and the Russian Far East are confronted with the same development problems. They need to adjust their industrial structure internally, and meanwhile, open wider to the outside world, leveraging international resources to nourish regional economics. Sharing a consistent philosophy for development, they cover overlapped areas and implement those strategies simultaneously, which serves as a perpetual engine for cross-border cooperation between the two regions.
China and Russia have maintained sound political mutual trust, as exchanges of visits among leaders are frequent, and regular consultation and meeting mechanisms have been established in various departments and fields. Rapport political relations have laid a solid foundation for economic cooperation and development. People-to-people exchanges between China and Russia are increasingly deepened. Recent years have seen China successfully holding several "Sino-Russian Cultural Years" exchange activities and "Confucius Institutes" set up in Russian universities. The deepened cultural exchange activities allow both sides to know each other. The exchanges between think tanks in the Northeast and the Far East are also proliferating, and those think tanks have communicated regarding how to promote the transnational cooperation, thus forming a benign interaction. The political mutual trust and active interaction between the governments, non-governmental organizations and think tanks of the two countries offer an essential guarantee for their synergetic development.
3. Opportunities and Weaknesses for the Synergetic Development of Northeast China and the Russian Far East.
3.1 Opportunities for the synergetic development of Northeast China and the Russian Far
East.
The first is that the experience of fighting the epidemic together has transformed into a new impetus for the synergetic development of China and Russia. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, General Secretary Xi Jinping has communicated with President Putin many times by phone to develop coordinated approaches to jointly prevent and control the epidemic, from which we can see high-level strategic communication and cooperation between China and Russia. When China hit the tough times of combating the epidemic, Russia has helped and supported Chinese people sincerely. When the epidemic spread globally, China also provided Russia with medical material assistance within its capacity and has facilitated its procurement of short-run supplies in China. Particularly, in the face of unreasonable attacks and smears by some countries that distort facts, and wantonly fabricate and spread rumors, China and Russia support mutually and speak up for each other. That's how a firm and the cooperative front was built to fight both the epidemic and rumors. This shows that their shared experience of fighting the epidemic is transforming into a new driving force for the high-level development of China-Russia comprehensive and cooperative relations. At present, Russia is making every effort to prevent and control the epidemic, while China is also bearing pressures from the resurgence of the epidemic. Both sides should exchange more frequently, learn from each other's successful experience, share epidemic information, and collaborate in the research and development of drugs and vaccines. In this way, anti-epidemic cooperation
could be employed as an opportunity to continuously promote the comprehensive and synergetic development of cooperation between China and Russia.
The second is the opportunity brought by the eastward shift of Russia's economic center. In October 2014, Vladimir Putin, Russia's President, underscored the need to increase exchanges and cooperation with China, the BRICS, Latin American countries and countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Russia's development focus has shifted to both the East and West. Internally, Russia's policy of active cooperation with the East is beneficial for the economic development of the Far East; Externally, it can solve the problem of regional economic development imbalance, and ease the tension between Russia and Europe. In November 2018, China and Russia jointly compiled the China-Russia Cooperation and Development Program in the Russian Far East (2018-2024), after which they introduced preferential policies in the Russian Far East to support foreign investors, key regions and fields for attracting capital, and supporting policies for infrastructure and funds, etc. The advancement of Russia's policy of active cooperation with the East renders a rare strategic opportunity for the further pragmatic cooperation between China and Russia, as well as the synergetic development of revitalizing Northeast China and developing the Far East.
The third is the connection between the "Belt and Union". Jointly docking the "Belt and Road" initiative with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is becoming a new engine for regional economic development and cooperation. Since President Xi Jinping and President Putin jointly signed the Joint Statement on Cooperation of Connection Between the Silk Road Economic Belt and Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) [9] in 2015, the collaboration of the "Belt and Road" initiative and EEU have been continuously deepened. In key areas such as energy, agriculture, transportation, communications, digital economy, and finance, fruitful results have been achieved, laying a solid foundation for establishing highlevel economic partnerships in Eurasia. The Trade and Economic Cooperation Agreement between the People 's Republic of China and the Eurasian Economic Union [10] officially came into effect in October 2019, providing an important institutional guarantee for the two sides to carry out mutually beneficial cooperation and constructive dialogue in the economic and trade field. The connection provides greater strategic opportunities for China and Russia to conduct synergetic development in an all-round way.
3.2 . Weaknesses in the cooperation between Northeast China and the Russian Far East.
First, the overall scale of the Sino-Russian trade is small. As the Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation deepens, the bilateral trade has also been scaling up. In 2018, the trade volume exceeded 100 billion dollars for the first time. In 2020, the number reached 107.765 billion dollars. Although Sino-Russian trade has grown steadily, there is still a big gap compared with the volume of trade between China and other countries. Take Japan, South Korea, and the United States as examples. In 2020, the bilateral trade volume between China and Japan is 317.537 billion dollars, that between China and the US is 586.72 billion dollars, and that between China and South Korea is 285.264 billion dollars. Compared with the profound political foundation of the two sides, the economic ties between China and Russia are far from optimal. Although the scale of Sino-Russian trade has increased from 95.285 billion dollars in 2014 to 107.765 billion dollars in 2020, its proportion in China's total foreign trade has not increased significantly. In 2014, its proportion was 2.28%, while in 2020, it was merely 2.32% (see the table below). The lack of trade scale will also limit the synergistic development effect of the Sino-Russian regional economy.
Sino-Russian Trade Volume and China's Foreign Trade Volume _(Unit: Billions of Dollars)_
Year Total Bilateral Trade Volume Total Volume of China's The Sino-Russian Trade
(China and Russia) Foreign Trade Proportion (%)
2014 982.85 43015.27 2.28
2015 680.61 39530.33 1.72
2016 695.63 36855.57 1.89
2017 840.95 41071.38 2.05
2018 1070.57 46228.71 2.32
2019 1107.94 45761.26 2.42
2020 1077.65 46462.57 2.32
Data Source: collated according to China Customs Database
Second, the Sino-Russian trade structure is single. The trade structure between China and Russia is seriously solidified. China's exports to Russia are mainly concentrated in electromechanical products,
textiles, shoes and hats, and light industrial products. In 2020, China's exports of electromechanical products to Russia accounted for 41.38%, and textile products for 10.68%. These two categories have occupied more than half of China's export trade with Russia. These products are low-tech and laborintensive. From Russia's side, the products China imports from Russia are mainly resource-based products, such as fossil fuels, wood products, and metal products. In the long run, this unreasonable trade structure is disadvantageous for both parties [11].
Third, their forms of cooperation are outmoded. Sino-Russian regional economic cooperation has long focused on one form, that is, trade in goods. Besides, trade in technology and service accounts for a small proportion, and direct investment is even less. As far as China and Russia are concerned, not only is the investment scale limited but also the regional economic cooperation is uncoordinated. All these factors hinder their economic cooperation. Although the current Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation is promising, to reach a higher level, it entails pushing forward the economic and trade cooperation between the two sides, instead of being limited by trade in goods. We should develop more high-tech and transnational industrial cooperation and actively explore new cooperation approaches [12].
4. Countermeasures and Suggestions for Expanding the Synergetic Development of Northeast China and the Russian Far East.
4.1. Clear the way for trade activities.
First, cooperate in the whole industry chain. Consolidate intra-industry trade, coordinate industrial and investment policies, and eliminate trade barriers. Formulate cooperation plans targeting the whole industry chain, covering aspects including resources, technology, capital, manpower, benefit distribution, etc., encourage investment in the superior links of the other party's industry chain with strong market demand and high-tech industries, so as to give play to the strengths of all parties, complement each other, and extend the industry chain in the region. It is necessary to strengthen scientific and technological cooperation, and elevate industrial technology level, especially in the fields of high-tech and green technology, with attempts to boost the adjustment and upgrading of their respective industrial structures, and enhance the competitiveness of products in the international arena.
Second, step up efforts in optimizing the Sino-Russian cross-border e-commerce platform. Cultivate and enlarge cross-border e-commerce business entities with Russia, encourage traditional Russian trading companies to transform and upgrade, motivate e-commerce service companies to build cross-border e-commerce platforms, and provide various related services to Russian e-commerce application and traditional companies. Based on the principle of facilitation, we shall establish a complete information sharing database for keeping enterprises on records, unify information standards and specifications, information record-keeping certification, and information management services, breaking information barriers. Moreover, establish cooperation and sharing mechanisms in the fields of customs, inspection and quarantine, taxation, foreign exchange management, so as to achieve information interconnection among various departments and provide data technical support for the further development of cross-border e-commerce with Russia. Integrate credit data from multiple portals and bolster the credit evaluation system of cross-border transactions with Russia, through which an ecommerce credit evaluation system with complete credit records, sound systems, and convenient services is formed. Furthermore, it is essential to improve cross-border e-commerce credit databases, credit supervision and negative list systems.
Third, reinforce the construction of Sino-Russian border ports. In order to solve the shortcomings of border ports, it is indispensable to optimize the layout based on the actual characteristics of each port. Ports shall be promoted as a key node in the interconnection of logistics channels. Under the premise, build more sophisticated infrastructure in ports, accelerate the construction of gateways and cross-border passages between China and Russia, and combine port infrastructure and resource allocation with the innovation of port management model, allowing fitted port specifications, service functions and customs clearance inspection mode. Therefore, the overall efficiency of the port can be lifted to meet the actual needs of port development. Take the initiative in exploring the development model of the port franchise, and increase the role of border ports as a driver of the local economy. Strengthen the construction of port operation mechanism, improve the synergetic mechanism of customs, strengthen cooperation between administrative departments and regional law enforcement, and establish an intermodality transport supervision system for customs.
4.2. Establish a win-win cooperation mechanism.
The first is the policy communication mechanism. It should be guided by high-level visits, based on which strengthen intergovernmental communication, focus on promoting bilateral and multilateral cooperation, actively build a multi-level intergovernmental policy exchange and linkage mechanism. In addition, hold more policy dialogue and consultation, deepen economic cooperation, and increase political mutual trust, with a view to reaching a new consensus on cooperation. Corresponding departments and institutions should actively establish committees based on Sino-Russian cooperation in energy, information technology, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, chemicals, wood processing, shipbuilding, transportation machinery manufacturing, non-ferrous metallurgy, agriculture, finance, and investment. At the same time, communication and coordination among local governments should also be energized within Northeast China, so that new growth poles can take shape with its unique advantages and competitiveness.
The second is the supervision and accountability mechanism. In the joint development of Northeast China and the Russian Far East, cooperation and supervision mechanisms should be set up and constantly refined. Oriented on the overall strategy, regional economic cooperation should be adjusted by monitoring the behavior of cooperative groups. In the market-led joint development, guarantee and improve the executive power of enterprises and relevant participants; regarding establishing and optimizing rules and regulations as well as quality management systems, relevant departments of China and Russia should communicate and cooperate with each other adequately. On the premise of mutual trust and win-win results between China and Russia, establish and improve the supervision and accountability system. Found relevant supervision agencies in the relevant fields of Sino-Russian cooperation, enabling Chinese and Russian personnel to supervise the establishment, implementation, completion, and follow-up of Sino-Russian cooperation projects, and manage the execution, operation, production, and major decision-making.
The third is the risk pre-warning mechanism. The joint development of Northeast China and the Russian Far East requires the government to build a platform to facilitate the process, but more importantly, it entails market-led economic organizations and individuals to take part in. At the microlevel, various economic entities (enterprises and individuals), for their own interests, carry out various economic activities, participate in and promote the joint development of Northeast China and the Russian Far East, but their activities are limited to economy, culture, law, technology, management, and organization, where there are uncertainties and risks. Therefore, the two countries should establish a risk pre-warning mechanism to spot such signs, by which timely warning is available and information is fed back ahead of time, so as to control and prevent the occurrence of risk in time and effectively mitigate the loss caused by risk.
4.3. Complete relevant policies, laws and regulations.
The systems of China and Russia differ, especially embodied in corresponding policies and regulations, which also has an impact on the strategic interaction between China and Russia. A sound policy is a crucial bedrock for the cooperation between Northeast China and the Russian Far East. In this process, the two sides should actively introduce various policies to drive the coordination based on mutual benefit and win-win cooperation.
To reach the above strategic targets, China and Russia must form a unified understanding and coordinated actions at the national level. Reach a consensus in ideology, and carry out unified coordination at the strategic and planning levels. China and Russia should negotiate and organize relevant departments and experts to study and determine the objectives of coordinated regional economic development, find reasonable synergetic points around the two countries' national and regional development strategies, and introduce guiding planning plans. Besides, through effective paths and appropriate channels, we shall transfer the guiding plan to the two countries and the two regions, and meanwhile, the plan is served as a guiding document for cooperation between the Northeast and the Far East. After that, study and formulate corresponding supporting policies as well as support and safeguard measures.
4.4. Conduct cooperation in high-tech fields.
At present, China-Russia economic and trade cooperation has been booming. The bilateral trade volume has exceeded 100 billion dollars, covering increasingly extensive areas, among which the hightech field should be highlighted. Compared with traditional industries, high-tech industries focus on the integration of knowledge and technology, whose types of products can be accommodated in tune with
market needs. The industrial structure of Northeast China is akin to the Russia Far East. The development of high-tech industries can make up for the shortcomings of traditional industries, extending the industrial chain and realizing the effective division of labor in regional industries. In the theory of international trade, inter-industry trade is a type where trade diversion occurs frequently. Besides, with the low-tech and low basic intensity of products, intermediate trade and intra-industry trade have a multiplier effect of total trade. The Northeast region boasts superior conditions for cultivating scientific and technological talents and transforming their achievements. In the traditional industries, the equipment manufacturing industry in the Northeast region has comparative advantages. It is suggested to rely on traditional industries for upgrading and transformation. We shall take into account the reality of the Northeast, rather than unilaterally pursue "high-end" technological products while ignoring the original technological advantages. In addition, the need for the Russia Far East for scientific and technological cooperation should be considered. Through the analysis of the Sino-Russian industrial structure, we found that Russia has a high demand for Chinese electromechanical equipment and electronic products, which are the potential key fields in future cooperation. The cooperation in the high-tech field, on the one hand, put the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries in motion and phase out the backward industries; on the other hand, can effectively stretch the chain of Sino-Russian industrial cooperation, from interindustry cooperation to intra-product cooperation and industrial cooperation.
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ЧЖУ ДАПЭНЬ - научный сотрудник Института экономики Хэйлунцзянской академии социальных наук ([email protected]) ZHU, DAPENG - Research Assistant, Institute of Economics, Heilongjiang Academy of Social Sciences ([email protected]).
УДК 336.276 DOI: 10.24412/2308-264X-2021-1-139-146
МАТЮНИНА М.В., ДЫРЧЕНКОВА Ю.А. АНАЛИЗ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОГО ДОЛГА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ
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Ключевые слова: государственный долг, дефицит бюджета, государственная гарантия, заимствования, профицит бюджета, эффективность управления.
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