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КАНДАЛИНЦЕВ ВИТАЛИИ ГЕННАДЬЕВИЧ - кандидат экономических наук, старший научный сотрудник Института востоковедения РАН ORCID 0000-0002-7500-4589. ([email protected]).
KANDALINTSEV, VITALY G. - Ph.D. in Economics, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of RAS, ORCID 00000002-7500-4589 ([email protected]).
УДК 339.56.055(510+520) DOI: 10.24412/2308-264X-2020-6-212-216
ЛЯН СЮЕЦЮ
ВЛИЯНИЕ COVID-19 НА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ И ТОРГОВОЕ СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО КИТАЯ И ЯПОНИИ: КОНТРОЛЬНЫЕ МЕРЫ1
Ключевые слова: COVID-19, Китай, Япония, торгово-экономическое сотрудничество, макроэкономика, зона свободной торговли.
Экономическое и торговое сотрудничество между Китаем и Японией неуклонно развивалось в течение почти сорока лет и, в целом, сохраняло растущую динамику. Обе стороны имеют хорошую взаимодополняемость и широкие перспективы сотрудничества в сфере экономики и торговли. Вспышка COVID-19 оказала большое влияние на торгово-экономическое сотрудничество между Китаем и Японией. Цепочка промышленных поставок между Китаем и Японией была нарушена, и объем торговли значительно сократился. Чтобы противостоять этим проблемам, Китаю и Японии следует укрепить систему сотрудничества, как, впрочем, и систему управления общественным здравоохранением. Сегодня настоятельно необходимо смягчить деструкции механизма офлайн-сотрудничества между Китаем и Японией, внедрив новаторскую модель делового взаимодействия, создать специальный институт переговоров для Зоны свободной торговли CJK, расширить сферу экономики
1 Project 1: 2020 Youth Project of Heilongjiang Academy of Social Sciences (No. 2020-Q14); Project 2: 2017 Youth Project of National Social Science Fund (No. 17CGJ023)
и торговли Китая и Японии. сотрудничества и продолжать углублять механизмы работы двустороннего сотрудничества, чтобы уменьшить потери, которые имеют место в сфере экономического и торгового сотрудничества между двумя сторонами.
LIANG, XUEQIU
THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CHINA-JAPAN ECONOMIC AND TRADE COOPERATION AND
COUNTERMEASURES
Key words: COVID-19, China, Japan, Economic and Trade Cooperation, macroeconomics, free trade zone.
The economic and trade cooperation between China and Japan has experienced nearly forty years of development and generally maintained a rising momentum. Both sides enjoy good complementarity and broad prospects for cooperation in economy and trade. The outbreak of COVID-19 has a great impact on the economic and trade cooperation between China and Japan. The industrial supply chain between China and Japan has broken down, and trade has declined significantly. To resistance the disease, China and Japan can strengthen the cooperation system and public health governance system. At the same time, it is necessary to cushion the interruption of the offline cooperation mechanism between China and Japan by innovating the business cooperation model, build a special negotiation institution for the CJK Free Trade Area, expand the scope of China-Japan economic and trade cooperation, and continue to deepen the third-party cooperation working mechanism to reduce the losses of economic and trade cooperation between the two sides.
Geographically, Japan and China are neighbors. In terms of economic and trade cooperation, China is an important economic partner of Japan, and China-Japan Trade has basically maintained a relatively stable growth trend. In recent years, Japan has become more dependent on China's economic development, which further illustrates the complementarity between the two countries in economic development. At the same time, with the continuous adjustment of China's economic policies and the expansion of the share of high-end products, China-Japan trade relations are competitive to a certain extent, which requires the two countries to eliminate the disadvantages between the two countries in trade and jointly promote the long-term maintenance of the friendly relations of cooperation between the two countries.
1. The impact of COVID-19 on China-Japan relations.
At the beginning of the New Year in 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic hit China and spread rapidly. With the spread of the epidemic around the world, the world has entered a rare state of isolation by the continuous upgrading of prevention and control measures. The industrial chain has suffered unprecedented damage, and the world economy has plunged into recession. In this situation, the economic and trade relations between China and Japan and their domestic economy, have also been hit hard. Two countries facing new challenges and the cooperation opportunity, it is necessary to strengthen the epidemic prevention and control cooperation, further deepen the bilateral economic and trade relations, promote to build the regional cooperation mechanism of normalized, jointly safeguard and promote the steady development of the two economies.
The global spread of COVID-19 not only exposes the deficiencies of the traditional state-centric approach, but also confirms the law of survival of "All the glory, all the damage" among geopolitical neighbors. In the face of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, the Japanese from all walks of life overcame the difficulties immediately and offered timely and extensive assistance by donating money and materials. According to Chinanews.com: On January 23, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed his full support for China's fight against COVID-19 and strengthened cooperation with the Chinese government in a plenary session of the Lower House of parliament. On January 26, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Mogi expressed their willingness to work together with China to deal with the epidemic threat and provide all-round support and assistance to China. The cardboard boxes of medical supplies donated by Japan's Chinese Language Proficiency Test (HSK) bureau has been written "Exotic mountains, same moon and same sky". On February 11, the package of supplies sent to Dalian by the Government of Kyoto, has been written "Castle peak together with the clouds and rain, the moon had been two townships". Mayor Of Kyoto said he was "very worried about the epidemic and will continue to raise medical masks and protective suits".
In 2012, the "purchase" of the Diaoyu Islands caused the serious deterioration of China-Japan relations, which led to the continuous decline of Japanese investment in China until 2017, but the cooperation between the two countries did not fully resume. The resumption of high-level economic dialogue and strategic dialogue between China and Japan is the internal factors, while the common impact of trade protectionism and anti-globalization is the external factors. The combined impact of these factors has injected positive factors into the transformation of bilateral relations. The outbreak epidemic in China
has warmed relations between the two countries. Japan's goodwill and the friendly attitude of its citizens have won the hearts and minds of the Chinese people. The Chinese government and people have expressed sincere gratitude to Japan.
2. The impact of COVID-19 on China-Japan economic and trade cooperation.
The sudden public health event caused the world economy to fall into recession in 2020, and also disrupted the economic and social order and the original plan, with extensive impacts. With the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, the measures taken by China, such as sealing off cities and villages and banning people from gathering and walking, made Japan's economy into a temporary recession and affected the economic and trade cooperation between China and Japan in many aspects.
First of all, the epidemic has dealt a heavy blow to the service trade between China and Japan. Take tourism as an example, the decrease in the number of Chinese tourists to Japan has led to a significant decrease in consumption. China is an important source of foreign tourists to Japan, and every year the Spring Festival is the peak of the number of tourists and the peak sales to Japan. As a large number of international flights are suspended and entry restrictions increasing between countries and regions, the number of mainland tourists to Japan drops sharply, affecting the consumption of catering, accommodation and other related industries and shopping. The epidemic has also hindered the business exchanges between China and Japan and the export of labor services from China to Japan. Only in the agricultural sector, about 1,200 Chinese skills interns could not enter the country. In Japan, there is a shortage of labor force in spring ploughing season and a shortage of labor for small and medium-sized enterprises. During the epidemic prevention period, a large number of people gathering at a high density also means the existence of potential high risks, and it will be difficult to avoid a straight decline in cross-border tourism in the coming year. As a result, the decline in the proportion of Chinese tourists to Japan will inevitably affect related industries, such as aviation industry, hotel industry and the retail industry represented by department stores and duty-free stores, whose profit space will be smaller, and the recession will be faced with layoffs, closures, unemployment and other embarrassing situations.
Secondly, the Chinese lockouts have disrupted supply chains. Disruptions in logistics have disrupted supply chains which focused on Chinese companies, and car factories in Kyushu, Japan, have also been shut down. The economy of China and Japan is highly dependent on each other, and the epidemic inevitably leads to the simultaneous impact of many physical factories in Japan. Due to the destruction of industrial chains between China and Japan, the development of production and consumption is also affected to a certain extent. At the same time, it also means that China and Japan need to strengthen cooperation to jointly repair and build the resilience of industrial chains.
In addition, the consumption mode was shift from offline to online consumption transformation. The difficulty in identifying asymptomatic infected persons, inbound infection and local cross-transmission have become triple superimposed threats faced by the states. During the prevention and control period, the "quarantine system" and "home order" not only greatly reduced people's daily consumption expenditure, but also significantly reduced their travel enthusiasm, resulting in a substantial reduction in physical consumption. Many services have shifted from offline to online, and many new online formats such as online teaching and video conferencing have emerged. The epidemic has had a subtle impact on people's way of life in the short term. After the epidemic, whether there will be retaliatory consumption or not, the new forms of business online are quietly changing people's lifestyle.
3. Countermeasures and Suggestions for China and Japan to the epidemic prevention and the economic and trade cooperation development.
China is the most promising market in the world. Taking advantage of China's economic development has become the consensus of the Japanese economic circle. After a period of economic development, Japan's dependence on exports became more and more obvious. At the same time, this has become a major hidden danger for Japan's economy. The main cause of this problem is that in addition to the decline in the level of Japanese national consumption, the economy of the island countries is an economic imprint that Japan has been unable to get rid of. There is no reason that Japan should give up pandering to the Chinese market. Therefore, to actively plan regional cooperation and build east Asia economic circle with China has become the route one must take for Japan's economic development and conforms to the fundamental interests of its economic development. In recent years, Japan has made constant practical moves in the pursuit of regional economic cooperation. It has not only participated in
the Regional Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Partnership Agreement, but also made active explorations in the construction of the CJK Free Trade Area.
First of all, in the context of coexisting COVID-19 between China and Japan, the ability of the joint response to the outbreak need to strengthen between the two countries, especially in the disease resistance cooperation system and public health management system need to conduct all-round cooperation, such as strengthening the construction of the mechanism of outbreak response between the two countries, focusing on improving coordination and emergency mechanism for health and epidemic prevention, strengthen joint research and development transnational joint prevention and control mechanism, exploration to develop transnational zone spreading mechanism. At the same time, China and Japan should build a public health governance system with deep participation, strengthen the handling system of public health emergencies, improve the cooperation system of public health security, and build a common sharing of big data information network, so as to strengthen the epidemic response capacity of China and Japan.
Secondly, on the premise of epidemic prevention, China and Japan should take corresponding measures to establish and improve the economic and trade cooperation system, such as conducting intergovernmental dialogue on epidemic control and resolving political differences. Official political weathervanes between the two countries always influence the progress of civilian diplomacy. The epidemic prevention is a top priority. Strengthening the meeting between the heads of state of China and Japan on epidemic prevention is conducive to sending signals of goodwill, promoting the establishment of a model of political mutual trust and even achieving mutual compromise in sensitive areas. To a certain extent, the consolidation of bilateral diplomatic relations is conducive to the epidemic prevention and control. The prevention and control cooperation is also conducive to the relief of bilateral historical contradictions, which promote and influence each other. Base on the current situation, the two countries should carry out practical cooperation to jointly combat the epidemic and safeguard the long-term interests of the region, on the premise of maintaining the achievements of the fight against the epidemic.
In addition, based on the offline cooperation interrupt two sides during the outbreak, and reduced turnover and the circumstances of the limited production capacity of the enterprise, the two sides can innovation business mode of cooperation, that is, the online mode is given priority to the timely communication between the enterprise, through the remote office to deal with matters of economic and trade cooperation, thus effectively enhance the efficiency of trade and economic cooperation under the outbreak. Secondly, based on the goodwill and friendship shown between China and Japan over the epidemic, the two sides can take this opportunity to speed up the negotiation process of the CJK Free Trade Area and conduct online negotiation and communication, so as to maximize the complementarity between the industries of China and Japan.
Furthermore, in order to reduce the loss of economic and trade cooperation between China and Japan, we can continue to deepen the working mechanism of third-party cooperation, and it will not be interrupted due to the epidemic. The third-party market cooperation has become a new path for the pragmatic development of Sino-Japanese trade and economic cooperation, which is determined by the complementarity between China and Japan. Complementary advantages have laid the foundation for China and Japan to jointly expand cooperation in the third market. The outbreak of the epidemic has a great impact on the normal economic and trade cooperation between China and Japan, but it does not have the same impact on the two countries in the third market. Therefore, strengthening the cooperation in the third market can effectively reduce the loss due to the epidemic. Besides, the two sides of the third party cooperation in many areas has huge potential, the two countries with their respective comparative advantages, for example, the Japanese companies have technology, equipment.etc, Chinese companies control the cost and integration services, construction cycle and so on, and they set up the "third-party market mechanism of cooperation between China and Japan,". The cooperation agreement involves widely, especially in high-speed rail project cooperation, it is also present a win-win situation, provides a basic condition for the follow-up mutual holding and joint development of cooperation. Therefore, China and Japan need to pay more attention to the cooperation in the third market to reduce the loss caused by the epidemic. In addition, there is broad space for future cooperation between China and Japan in areas such as digital economy, electronic payment, artificial intelligence and environmental protection. Despite the prospect of Sino-Japanese economic and trade cooperation is broad, uncertainties still remain. Therefore, in the context of global changes, the two sides still need to make joint efforts to cope with
various challenges. The COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 has profoundly affected the traditional international political systems operation. In the future, the virus knows no borders, and because COVID-19 is highly contagious, rapidly spreading and has asymptomatic infections, it will be difficult for any country or region to stop and control the epidemic on its own. At the same time, the epidemic has caused industrial supply chains to break down, and world trade and economy have plunged. Only by strengthening cooperation can countries and regions effectively respond to the epidemic and shake off the economic recession as soon as possible. The joint epidemic prevention among region can not only increase the collective identity and political cohesion of member states, but also enhance their capacity for rapid mobilization in response to emergencies. Cooperation in epidemic prevention can also drive the establishment of cooperation mechanisms in traditional and non-traditional fields in Northeast Asia, and continuously extend and expand their functions to higher levels. As China and Japan are both east Asian powers, they shoulder the important task of promoting regional development. In the face of major crises, they need to work together to fight the fierce epidemic, maintain the continuity of the regional industrial chain, and promote the recovery of normalization of regional economic. The outbreak of the epidemic in China and Japan has brought the friendly relations into a better situation. The economic and trade cooperation between the two countries will develop at a higher speed along with the elimination of the epidemic, and the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries will also tend to be continuously upgraded. Therefore, in the context of global changes, the two sides still need to make joint efforts to cope with various challenges.
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ЛЯН СЮЕЦЮ - научный сотрудник Еврейского института Хэйлунцзянской академии социальных наук, магистр (КНР, Харбин).
LIANG, XUEQIU - Research Assistant, Jewish Institute, Heilongjiang Academy of Social Sciences, Master Degree (Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China) ([email protected]).
