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6UDC 338.2(476)+316.42(476) JEL classification: H10, J58, P35, Z13
THE CONTENT OF THE FORECAST OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS
©Shvaiba D., ORCID: 0000-0001-6783-9765, Ph.D., Minsk regional organization of the Belarusian Trade Union of workers of chemical, mining and oil industries;
Belarusian national technical University, Minsk, Belarus, shvabia@tut.by
СОДЕРЖАНИЕ ПРОГНОЗА СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО СЕКТОРА РЕСПУБЛИКИ БЕЛАРУСЬ
©Швайба Д. Н., ORCID: 0000-0001-6783-9765, канд. экон. наук,
Минская областная организация Белорусского профсоюза работников химической, горной и нефтяной отраслей промышленности;
Белорусский национальный технический университет, г. Минск, Беларусь, shvabia@tut.by
Abstract. The structural complexity of the industrial sector is noticeable in the presence of a large number of interrelated, but not homogeneous components that potentially have all the chances to be used as objects of the forecast. Based on the circumstances of the implementation of socio-economic security — achieving the stability of the industrial sector — these objects makes sense to classify, noting the symptoms of status properties: industrial facilities (industry) and non-industrial (outdoor facilities that affect the position and formation of the industrial sector). Industry the industrial sector shape the circuitry in the industrial sector are responsible for the quality of its formation. At the same time, the position and formation of the component parts of the industrial sector is largely dependent on the situational changes in the external environment. But the various components of the industrial sector are not equally sensitive to external influences. In accordance with this, external influences are also required to be "covered" by the monitoring of socioeconomic security and integrated into its facilities
Аннотация. Структурная сложность промышленного сектора заметна в наличии большого количества взаимосвязанных, но не однородных составляющих, которые потенциально имеют все шансы быть применены в качестве объектов прогноза. Исходя из обстоятельств реализации социально-экономической безопасности — достижение стабильности промышленного сектора — данные объекты имеет смысл классифицировать, отметив по симптомам статусного свойства: отраслевые объекты (отрасли промышленности) и внеотраслевые (объекты наружной среды, которые воздействуют на положение и становление промышленного сектора). Отрасли промышленного сектора формируют элементную базу всего промышленного сектора и обусловливают качество его становления. В то же время, положение и становление составных частей промышленного сектора во многом находится в зависимости от ситуационных перемен наружной среды. Но различные составляющие промышленного сектора не идентично чувствительны к наружным влияниям. В соответствии с этим наружные влияния тоже обязаны быть «охвачены» мониторингом социально-экономической безопасности и интегрированы в состав его объектов.
Keywords: socio-economic security, government, society, enterprise, employee, threat, security, interests, economics, analysis, system.
Ключевые слова: социально-экономическая защищенность, государство, общество, предприятие, работник, угроза, защищенность, интересы, экономика, анализ, система.
As established in the study, the socio-economic security of the industrial sector is guaranteed if structural and dynamic stability is preserved in its development and change, and the coma of this impact of internal and external hazards. In order to answer the question of how the industrial sector is resistant to destructive influences, evolutionary and transformational changes at any time, it is necessary to conduct periodic monitoring and study of its state (monitoring of socio-economic security) [1, p.8; 2, p. 39; 3, p. 173; 4, p. 25].
The structural complexity of the industrial sector is noticeable in the presence of a large number of interrelated, but not homogeneous components that potentially have all the chances to be used as objects of the forecast. Based on the circumstances of the implementation of socioeconomic security — achieving the stability of the industrial sector — these objects makes sense to classify, noting the symptoms of status properties: industrial facilities (industry) and non-industrial (outdoor facilities that affect the position and formation of the industrial sector). Industry the industrial sector shape the circuitry in the industrial sector are responsible for the quality of its formation. At the same time, the position and formation of the component parts of the industrial sector is largely dependent on the situational changes in the external environment. But the various components of the industrial sector are not equally sensitive to external influences. According to this external influence must also be "covered" monitoring socio-economic security and integrated part of its objects [5, p. 12; 6, p. 109].
Non-industrial objects are represented by processes that are implemented in the environment of the industrial sector and relate to certain components of the industrial sector on the basis of direct and backward linkages, and in many cases mediate their functioning. Taking into account these individuals, the likely composition of the non-sectoral objects of the forecast is determined by the processes of the environment of the industrial sector (Table 1).
The table is based on the processes that directly affect the position and formation of the constituent parts of the industrial sector, but their impact is diverse. As demonstrated by the analysis, these processes can both cause danger to the industrial sector, and be a specific stabilizing and maintaining its steady state moment in positive variants. For example, the modification of the sectoral structure or implementation of targeted measures of state aid to the industrial sector has the ability to cause negative trends for the socio-economic security of the industrial sector, if the proportionality in the development of economic sectors is violated and as a result there will be a lack of resources. As a consequence of this certain period of time, it is important to prove not only the important for socio-economic security non-industrial objects, but also the subject segment, which will provide an opportunity to correctly interpret the information.
In General, the forecast of socio-economic security of the industrial sector is determined by the emerging environment, the formation of which provides a basis for negative or positive assessments. However, as the spent material demonstrates, there are certain patterns of situational changes in the external environment, which provide an opportunity to more clearly note the subject segment of the forecast of socio-economic security of the industrial sector. Among the more important laws of modification of the external environment are: the change of sources of financial development of the state and the limitation of industrial growth.
The revealed results make it possible to determine that the change of the stage of competitive growth leads to the transformation of both the properties of the development of the components of the industrial sector and the data of non-industrial objects of the forecast of socio-economic security. In particular, changes: cheaper in a certain period of time resource (factor) and the tension of its demand by the industrial sector; the structure of the formed production capacity.
Бюллетень науки и практики /Bulletin of Science and Practice http ://www.bulletennauki.com Т. 4. №8 2018
NON-INDUSTRIAL OBJECTS OF MONITORING OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR * Table 1
Ownership of the monitoring object Irresistible object monitoring
Outdoor environment Country aspect Industrial cycle;
stages of competitive growth of the state; the structure of technological orders Global aspect The global trend of industrial development;
activities of transnational entities Internal environment
The transformation of the sectoral structure of the industrial sector;
implementation of targeted measures of state support for the industrial sector;
_realization of personalized economic interests_
Note* Economic and organizational processes that determine the possibility of threats to the industrial sector are referred to the non-sectoral objects of monitoring the socio-economic security of the industrial sector. Source: elaboration of author.
This can be explained by the fact that the involvement in the economic turnover of the resource of an innovative property is justified by the probability of using the provided resource. For example, the size of the existing production capacities, the level of advanced manufacturing technologies, the ability to attract the appropriate staff and ensuring its interests by using the respective values of the wage and extra benefits [7-8]. Any stage of competitive recovery is guaranteed not only by the predominant resource, but also by the specific configuration of other resources and sources, which affects the duration of similar stages at different periods of time and the structure of production capacity. Means, including in case Santen size of the dominant resource is quite difficult to predict the duration of the stage. As a result, it is proposed to include in the subject of the forecast of socio-economic security of the industrial sector for a certain period of time the characteristics of the constituent elements of the industrial sector, taking into account the development of the further stage of competitive growth. Stage change and other important situational configurations that are natural (for example, industrial cycles), ask for revision and adjustment of the composition of non-sectoral objects of socio-economic security forecast for any change. The execution of the given circumstances imply the system security forecast and instrumental support. Based on this, in the forecast can be noted such organizational periods (Table 2).
The effectiveness of the forecast of socio-economic security of the industrial sector is largely dependent on how its tools correspond to the content and objectives of the stages presented in the table. In particular, at the preliminary stage, the introduction of such a tool as segmentation of the components of the industrial sector by the symptom of interaction with the internal and external environment, will allow the main objects of the forecast (industries) to put in the ratio the processes generated by the environment of the industrial sector and situational qualify the nature of the impact on its structure (threat or positive factor). The classification of parametric data and their preparatory generalization are carried out at the measuring boundary. It is expected that the negative impact on certain elements of the industrial sector aggravates or does not change the meaning of their characteristics, which reduces the effectiveness of the industrial sector as a whole. It follows that 1 of the leading tasks of the forecast of socio-economic security at this turn is to observe the characteristics of the functioning of the industrial sector, which indicate the degree of stability of its
structure in the implementation of the dangers, and to introduce a basis for the deterioration or immutability of the parameter, i. e. to prove the presence of danger or its unavailability.
Table 2.
THE MAIN PERIODS OF THE FORECAST OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR AND THEIR CONTENT
Forecast period
The content of the forecast periods
Forecast tools
Preparatory
Measuring
Final
Situational assessment of the internal and external environment of the industrial sector based on the characteristics of non-industrial objects of the forecast; the choice of the main objects of the forecast and the formation of its subject area; the formation of an information base for parametric observations that make up the subject of the forecast
Registration of current values of parameters of the main objects and characteristics of non-industrial objects (parametric data); level measurements of socio-economic security
Systematization of results of the forecast
Segmentation of the industrial sector on the basis of interaction of its branches with the external and internal environment; identification of the stage of competitive growth of the state; correlation of the emerging industry proportions and practices of industrial policy
Documenting results in a parametric forecast map;
differentiation of level measurements and identification of the current level of socio-economic security of the industrial sector
Determination of the level of socioeconomic security of the industrial sector; the formation of "parametric map forecast of socio-economic security" and "threat map of the industrial sector"
Source: elaboration of author.
More necessary and difficult in the forecast of socio-economic security is considered to be its final period, because its result is considered to be a description of the updated in the current period of industrial sector hazards. As established in the study, the problem is that the danger is not homogeneous for the nature, scale, effects, sources, etc. In consequence of this when they register it is necessary to identify, divided by origin into subjective and objective. This is necessary in order to symbolically consolidate the specific state of the industrial sector, which would have the opportunity to show the presence and specificity of the danger, and even to detect and identify the type of financial and economic dependence.
Moreover, it is important to note the dangers of situational nature (situational threats), which, unlike objective dangers, are local in nature and have all chances to influence only certain sections of the industrial sector, worsening the characteristics of their functioning. To identify the situational hazards of the forecast tools, it makes sense to note the characteristics of the segments of the industrial sector, the indicators of which are largely dependent on incentives (subsidies, preferences, various benefits and other forms of economic support). This requirement is met by the characteristics of competitiveness, financial and economic results and production volumes, the motivation of the labor collective in the final results of labor. In case the individual segments will realize functional foreign economic activity, to an array of observable characteristics have to be related characteristics that reflect the export and import operations. Subjective risks caused by the imbalance of inter-subject financial interests, affect the characteristics of the sectors of the economy, usually indirectly through the system of market regulation of financial processes. The negative impact of the imbalance of inter-subject financial interests is characterized by violations in the proportionality of the formation of segments of the industrial sector.
Based on the results of the study, the following methodological approach to the implementation of the forecast of socio-economic security of the industrial sector, based on the division of objects, subject area and the results of the forecast (Figure). The logic of the forecast, as it was noted, justified by its stages and the sequence of analysis of the above circumstances of socio-economic security of the industrial sector. Based on this, the main provision of the proposed methodological approach to the forecast is considered to be its "horizon", which is understood as a dynamic series of fixing the values of the characteristics and data of the observed objects. The interpretation of the noted values of the characteristics of the industrial sector can be implemented taking into account the impact of industrial recovery constraints.
Figure. General scheme of the forecast of socio-economic security of the industrial sector Source: elaboration of author.
The essence of this problem is that the performance characteristics of the industrial sector at a certain period of time is determined by the composition and structure of sources that provide industrial growth, which cannot be regarded positively or negatively. Compilation of these sources is formed on the basis of available resources for use, covering those that are considered the result of scientific and technological progress (innovative). Since the sources of industrial growth are limited by the size (quantity) and qualitative composition of the resources that create them, the indicators of the characteristics of the industrial sector functioning, giving the idea of development in safety, are specified at a level determined by similar limits. This means that the quantitative and qualitative description of the boundaries (range) of socio-economic security, due to the limitations of industrial growth, will give the results of the forecast certainty in relation to the stages of the financial and economic recovery of the state and objectively assess the degree of socio-economic security of the industrial sector.
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Работа поступила Принята к публикации
в редакцию 18.07.2018 г. 21.07.2018 г.
Cite as (APA):
Shvaiba, D. (2018). The content of the forecast of socio-economic security of the industrial sector of the Republic of Belarus. Bulletin of Science and Practice, 4(8), 177-182.
Ссылка для цитирования:
Shvaiba D. The content of the forecast of socio-economic security of the industrial sector of the Republic of Belarus // Бюллетень науки и практики. 2018. Т. 4. №8. С. 177-182. Режим доступа: http://www.bulletennauki.com/shvaiba-8 (дата обращения 15.08.2018).
