CC BY
6UDC 338.2(476)+316.42(476) JEL classification: H10, J58, P35, Z13
METHODS OF SUBSTANTIATION OF THE SUBJECT AREA OF THE FORECAST OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
©Shvaiba D., ORCID: 0000-0001-6783-9765, Ph.D., Minsk regional organization of the Belarusian Trade Union of workers of chemical, mining and oil industries;
Belarusian national technical University, Minsk, Belarus, shvabia@tut.by
МЕТОДИКА ОБОСНОВАНИЯ ПРЕДМЕТНОЙ ОБЛАСТИ ПРОГНОЗА СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО СЕКТОРА
©Швайба Д. Н., ORCID: 0000-0001-6783-9765, канд. экон. наук,
Минская областная организация Белорусского профсоюза работников химической, горной и нефтяной отраслей промышленности;
Белорусский национальный технический университет, г. Минск, Беларусь, shvabia@tut.by
Abstract. The reliability of the results of any forecast is dependent on the validity of the selection of objects and the definition of its subject area. Suppose that in the total number of objects of the forecast it makes sense to exclude the signatures of the industrial sector (industrial objects) and non-industrial objects, which, despite the relation to the external environment, have a specific impact on the position and formation of the industrial sector. To clarify the selection of the objects and the subject of the forecast of socio-economic security of the industrial sector, the following methodological approach is proposed. The forecast objects are oriented by the location of the sources of industrial sector hazards — "internal environment — external environment" — by the scheme of interelement connections in its structure and the importance of communications outside the structure (to distinguish objects it is proposed to mark them symbolically in accordance with the "industry objects" and "non-industry objects"). The subject field of the forecast is formed by the qualitative and quantitative properties of the objects of study. The task is to identify those objects from a large number of probable objects and their data that will allow to identify negative phenomena and processes capable of implementation in the current period (updated threats).
Аннотация. Достоверность итогов любого прогноза находится в зависимости от обоснованности выбора объектов и определения его предметной области. Предположим, что в общее количество объектов прогноза имеет смысл включить сегменты промышленного сектора (отраслевые объекты) и внеотраслевые объекты, которые, несмотря на отношение к наружной среде, оказывают конкретное воздействие на положение и становление промышленного сектора. Для уточнения выбора состава объектов и предмета прогноза социально-экономической безопасности промышленного сектора предлагается нижеследующий методический подход. Объекты прогноза ориентируются по местоположению источников опасностей промышленного сектора — «внутренняя среда — наружная среда» — по схеме межэлементных связей в его структуре и важности коммуникаций за пределами структуры (для различия объектов предлагается символически
их отметить в соответствии с тем как «отраслевые объекты» и «внеотраслевые объекты»). Предметное поле прогноза формируют качественные и количественные свойства объектов исследования. Задача сводится к тому, дабы из большого количества вероятных объектов и их данных выявить те, которые разрешат выделить отрицательные явления и процессы, способные к реализации в текущем периоде (актуализированные угрозы).
Keywords: socio-economic security, government, society, enterprise, employee, threat, security, interests, economics, analysis, system.
Ключевые слова: социально-экономическая защищенность, государство, общество, предприятие, работник, угроза, защищенность, интересы, экономика, анализ, система.
The result of the forecast of socio-economic security is systematized information that is used to assess the resistance of the industrial sector to threats and saving properties of its development, taking into account the individuality of the emerging criteria of functioning. Based on this, the object of the forecast is obliged to meet these requirements: recordability (quantitative certainty), exposure to evolutionary changes under the influence of external (positive or negative) influence, reactivity in relation to the overall dynamics of the industrial sector (variability in agreement with the emerging direction of industrial dynamics).
In relation to industrial facilities, these requirements are largely met by the characteristics of the industrial sector segments, which are in many positions as characteristics of the industrial sector and characteristics of the production potential. Characteristics of the industrial sector constitute the largest share of the subject area of the forecast and are designated as "main parameters". In particular, the characteristics of the industrial sector segments are considered to be quantitatively measurable (the registration requirement), largely justified by changes in the external environment (for example, a decrease or increase in effective demand linked to the income of the population), which corresponds to the second requirement. This means that it makes sense to apply them to determine the reactivity of the industrial sector structure to internal and external influences (the third requirement). In turn, on the principle of feedback, the main characteristics affect the processes occurring in the external environment. So, the subject field of the forecast of socioeconomic security is not limited to the characteristics of the segments of the industrial sector and the production potential, but also includes the properties of non-industrial facilities, reflecting the interaction of the industrial sector with the external environment.
Together with that, we must indicate that the selection of the data irresistible objects associated with the task their correlation with parameters of the segments of the industrial sector and productive capacity (the problem of establishing the type of dependence) and interpretations of the results of the forecast (the problem of definable results). This can be explained as follows. According to the properties of large systems, the complexity and uncertainty of the external environment of the industrial sector as a system of greater order will exceed its structural complexity. As a result, the mutual influence on the position and formation of sectoral and non-sectoral objects is dependent on the interrelations of non-sectoral objects related to a more complex system. In accordance with this, the difficulty in describing the mechanism of the impact of changes in these non-industry objects on the characteristics of industry and unambiguous interpretation of the consequences of this impact in relation to socio-economic security. For example, it is impossible to assess the positive communication with the external environment for the segments of the industrial sector, which by the symptom of interaction with the global aspect have all the chances to be at the same time attributed to both export-oriented and import-dependent. To
determine the subject area of the forecast of socio-economic security of the industrial sector, the following method is proposed [1-2].
The task of the methodology is to specify the subject field of the socio-economic security forecast and to solve the problem of the certainty of the interpretation of its results. The method is based on the theoretical provisions on the destabilization of the industrial sector structure and the criteria of its dynamic stability. Its implementation in the system of public administration will provide an opportunity to qualify more important characteristics for the activation of transformation processes in the structure of the industrial sector.
The technique is able to implement the presented algorithm.
1. Selection of characteristics included in the subject field.
The subject field of the socio-economic security forecast consists of the number of characteristics of the industrial sector (main parameters), production capacity data and data of non-industrial facilities. Non-industrial objects and their properties are selected on the basis of the progressive structure of the industrial sector and the dynamic foreign economic work in the segments of the industrial sector.
2. Requests for characteristics included in the subject field of the forecast.
The main characteristics play a stabilizing role in the functioning of the industrial sector. They meet the financial and economic indicators of the sectors of the economy, which occupy the largest share in the mass of industrial products. The choice of financial and economic characteristics is formed in coordination with the indicators used in determining and assessing the degree of financial and economic dependence. Stabilization resistance is confirmed by the indicators of production capacity. The properties of the volume and structure of the production potential are formed on the basis of quantitative characteristics of the size of the elements of its particular potentials. Properties of non-industrial objects are dependent on the type of segment (external- or intra-oriented) and the purpose of the products. The circumstances of selection are presented in Table 1.
Table 1.
CONDITIONS FOR THE SELECTION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF NON-INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES IN THE CONTEXT OF INDUSTRIAL SECTOR SEGMENTS
Segments of the industrial sector The terms "power" industries in the composition of the segment Out-of-industry facilities Characteristics of non-industrial facilities
Communicative (externally oriented) Representing the main commodity groups in the structure of export and import of industrial products Suppliers of imported products; Buyers of exported products Reliability of partnership relations; financial solvency of contractors; competitiveness of the supplied products
Intra-oriented, including sub-segments:
Feasibility-technological Belonging to the "core" of progressive technological structure Innovative development leaders The technological structure of the economy of the States-leaders of innovative development; the Composition of the "core"
Social Production of socially significant products Suppliers of the product group "critical import" emerging progressive technological structure Reliable partnerships
Source: elaboration of the author based on data [3-15].
3. Estimation of the progressivity and adaptability of the structure of the industrial sector.
The progressiveness of the structure is marked by the fact that it has a large part of the sectors of the economy belonging to the industry favorites in the global industrial development and specialization of the state in the global division of labor. To assess the evolutionary stability, the choice of economic sectors is based on the symptom of communication. The segments of the industrial sector are divided into basic sectors: communicative (external) and intra-oriented. The communication sector is dedicated to highlight a group of sectors of the economy that interact with the global aspect of the outdoor environment. The intra-oriented sector demonstrates a group of sectors of the economy that determine communication with the state aspect of the external environment, as well as inter-sectoral interaction in the internal environment of the industrial sector. Dynamic foreign economic work is specified by communications with the external environment based on the structure of exports and imports of the leading commodity groups. To assess the dynamics of foreign economic work (communication), it is proposed to rank groups of exported and imported goods, emphasizing the dominant rule: the greater the share of the product in the structure of exports or imports, the greater the rank (i). The rank number varies from 1 (highest) to n (lowest). The designation of ranks by commodity groups and the circumstances of the assessment of the communicativeness of economic sectors are given in Table 2.
Table 2.
CONDITIONS FOR ASSIGNING TO SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY THE ASSESSMENT
OF "HIGH COMMUNICATION"
Commodity group The notation (i-number of rank) Conditions of evaluation "high communication"
Exported products to CIS countries Ei E1; E2; E3;
Exported products to other countries Ci C1; C2; C3;
Imported products from CIS countries Ii I1; I2; I3;
Imported products from other countries CIi CI1; CI2; CI3;
Source: elaboration of author.
Evaluation of "high communication" allows to note the sectors of the economy, the functioning of which is largely determined by external causes, which in a negative scenario in the first-place leads to a violation of stabilization stability (equilibrium).
4. Assessment of stabilization and evolutionary stability of the industrial sector structure. To assess the sustainability of the industrial sector (i. e. the possibility of not aggravating the value of characteristics with changes in the external environment), the characteristics of the sectors of the economy that make up the intra-oriented sector are used. The role of this sector is to guarantee the functioning of other sectors of the national economy (the national aspect of the external environment) and to support inter-element interaction in the structure of the industrial sector. Depending on the purpose of intra-oriented segments of the industrial sector in the financial and economic system of the state and the structure of the industrial sector, it makes sense to note them by the symptom of the financial and economic purpose of the product ("means of production" or "consumer goods", i. e. the group of economic sectors "A" or "B"). Evaluation of the significance of the characteristics of the sectors of the economy that form these sub-segments is carried out by the size and dynamics of the modification of their ranks in the industrial sector structure. The ranking is executed according to the rule: the greater the specific volume of production of the Sigma in industrial production, the higher the rank (UI). The rank number (i) varies from 1 (highest) to n
(lowest). The circumstances of estimating the significance of the segment in providing evolutionary stability are given in Table 3.
Table 3.
CRITERIA CONDITIONS FOR ASSESSING STABILIZATION STABILITY
The value of the rank for the industries segment The trend in the Stabilization stability
Technical and technological Social rank level
U1; U2; U3 unchanged high
U1; U2; U3 reduction medium
U4; U5; U6 increase medium
U4; U5; U6 unchanged medium
U4; U5; U6 unchanged low
U4; U5; U6 reduction low
U7; U7 unchanged low
Source: elaboration of author.
5. The assessment of the evolutionary sustainability of the industrial sector is carried out according to the following scale (Table 4).
Table 4.
SCALE OF ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Subject area Condition of stability The result of the verification conditions
Stabilization stability
Main parameters The degree of economic dependence for the dominant industrial sectors in the structure of the industrial sector With a minimum degree of economic dependence, the estimate is "stable"; with a high degree, the estimate is "unstable".
Evolutionary sustainability
Characteristics of production capacity The ratio of sources of accumulation of production capacity and possible types of economic dependence in each specific period of time according to the criteria: "minimum economic dependence" and "maximum value of production potential". If the ratio satisfies the condition, the estimate is "stable". Otherwise — "unstable"
Main characteristics of non-industrial facilities Comparison of the technological structure of the economy of the Republic of Belarus If the technological structure of the compared countries changes in
and the leading countries of economic development
Comparison of the sectoral composition of the emerging "core" of the progressive technological structure in the economy of the Republic of Belarus and the countries-leaders of economic development_
one direction, the assessment is "stable"
If the industry composition is basically the same — the assessment is "stable"
Source: elaboration of the author based on data [16-27] (https://goo.gl/NyUaLM).
The lowest level of financial and economic dependence is manifested if there is no investment and economic dependence in the dominant segment. In accordance with this, the limit level is fixed in the presence of all types of financial and economic dependence.
References:
1. Shvaiba, D. (2018). Structural stability and socio-economic security of the hierarchical system. Bulletin of Science and Practice, 4(6), 233-239.
2. Shvaiba, D. (2018). Socio-economic security of the hierarchical system. Bulletin of Science and Practice, 4(6), 248-254.
3. Nikitenko, P. G., Ivanova, E. V., & Markov, A. V. (2002). Forecasting of scientific and technological development in Belarus. Minsk, BIP-S, 93.
4. Nikolaev, A. N. (2015). Influence of ethnic migrations on the social and economic security of the region. Uchenye zapiski Severo-Kavkazskoi akademii gosudarstva, (3). 108-111.
5. Nekhorosheva, L. N. (1996). Scientific and technological development and market: regulation, venture activity, infrastructure. Minsk, Belarusian State Economic University, 212.
6. Nikitenko, P. G. (2000). Model of sustainable socio-economic development of Belarus: problems, formation, evolution. Minsk, Law and Economics, 300.
7. Nikitenko, P. G. (2006). Noosphere economy and social policy: the strategy of innovative development. Minsk, Belarusian Science, 479.
8. Vashchekin, N. P., Dzliev, M. I., & Ursul, A. D. (1998). Security and sustainable development of Russia. Moscow, Moscow State University of Commerce, 446.
9. Getalo, O. Yu. (2001). Economic Security of Russia in the Sphere of Foreign Economic Activity. Foreign Economic Bulletin, (1), 46-48.
10. Plotnitskii, M. I. (2000). The economic theory. The system course. Minsk, New knowledge, 661.
11. Nikitenko, P. G. (2005). Prospects, problems and directions of export development in the context of Belarus' accession to the WTO. Management problems, (4), 47-56.
12. Plotnitskiy, M. I. (2003). The course of economic theory. Minsk, Interpresservice: Misanta, 494.
13. Nesterenko, A. N. (2001). The Economy. Moscow, Prospekt, 784.
14. Radaev, V. V. (1995). The Economy of the Transition Period. Moscow, Izd-vo Mosk. University, 415.
15. Bakosh, G. (1997). Technological policy in Japan: lessons for Eastern Europe. Issues of economics, (9), 27-31.
16. Kolupaev, V. A. (2002). Formation of the concept of national economic security in foreign countries. Belarusian economy: analysis, forecast, regulation, (12), 2-9.
17. Gitin, A. (2006). The activities of European industrial TNCs in CEE and CIS. World Economy and International Relations, (9), 41 -49.
18. Myasnikovich, M. V. (2003). Economic security of the state: problems of evaluation and management. Socio-economic security of the state: assessment, provision: materials of the International. scientific-practical. conference, Minsk, 11-12 December. 2001: Minsk, V. 1. 5-22.
19. Pinigin, V. V. (2000). Methodological approaches to the assessment of country investment risks. Belarusian Economy: analysis, forecast, regulation, (5), 35-48.
20. Shimov, V. N. (2005). National economy of Belarus: potentials, economic complexes, directions of development. control mechanisms. Minsk, Belarusian State Economic University, 843.
21. Tikhonov, A. O. (2002). The policy of economic transformation from the position of the macrodynamic approach. Belarusian economic journal, (1), 54-59.
22. Binko, I. F., Bazylyuk, Ya. B., & Kovalenko, S. O. (1997). Protectism policy as a component of Ukraine's economic security. Kiev, National Institute for Strategic Studies, 78.
23. Volkov, L. V. (2003). Problems of scientific and technical safety of the Russian economy. Finance and credit, (18), 21-25.
24. Grachev, N. (2016). Foreign Direct Investments in CEE Countries: Attractive Mechanisms. Belarusian Bank Bulletin, (5), 50-53.
25. Efremov, K. I., & Georgadze, E. I. (2002). Questions of assessing the economic security of the region. Problems of Statistics, (2), 57-59.
26. Zakharov, A. P. (2004). Actual aspects of the international economic security of Russia. Foreign economic bulletin, (8), 43-46.
27. Korotkov, E. M., & Belyaev, A. A. (2001). Management of economic security of the state. Management in Russia and abroad, (6), 9-25.
Список литературы:
1. Shvaiba D. Structural stability and socio-economic security of the hierarchical system // Бюллетень науки и практики. 2018. Т. 4 №6. С. 233-239.
2. Shvaiba D. Socio-economic security of the hierarchical system // Бюллетень науки и практики. 2018. Т. 4. №6. С. 248-254.
3. Никитенко П. Г., Иванова Е. В., Марков А. В. Прогнозирование научно-технического развития в Беларуси. Минск: БИП-С, 2002. 93 с.
4. Николаев А. Н. Влияние этнических миграций на социально-экономическую безопасность региона // Ученые записки Северо-Кавказской академии государственной службы. 2015. №3. С. 108-111.
5. Нехорошева Л. Н. Научно-технологическое развитие и рынок: регулирование, венчурная деятельность, инфраструктура. Минск: Белорусский государственный экономический университет, 1996. 212 с.
6. Никитенко П. Г. Модель устойчивого социально-экономического развития Беларуси: проблемы, формирование, эволюция. Минск: Право и экономика, 2000. 300 с.
7. Никитенко П. Г. Ноосферная экономика и социальная политика: стратегия инновационного развития. Минск: Белорусская наука, 2006. 479 с.
8. Ващекин Н. П., Дзлиев М. И., Урсул А. Д. Безопасность и устойчивое развитие России. М.: Изд-во Моск. гос. ун-та коммерции, 1998. 446 с.
9. Гетало О. Ю. Экономическая безопасность России в сфере внешнеэкономической деятельности // Внешнеэкономический бюллетень. 2001. №1. С. 46-48.
10. Плотницкий М. И. Экономическая теория. Системный курс. Минск: Новое знание, 2000. 661 с.
11. Никитенко П. Г. Перспективы, проблемы и направления развития экспорта в контексте вступления Беларуси в ВТО // Проблемы управления. 2005. №4. С. 47-56.
12. Плотницкий М. И. Курс экономической теории. Минск: Интерпрессервис; Мисанта, 2003. 494 с.
13. Нестеренко А. Н. Экономика. М.: Проспект, 2001. 784 с.
14. Радаев В. В. Экономика переходного периода. М.: Изд-во Моск. ун-та, 1995. 415 с.
15. Бакош Г. Технологическая политика в Японии: уроки для стран Восточной Европы // Вопросы экономики. 1997. №9. С. 27-31.
16. Колупаев В. А. Формирование концепции национальной экономической безопасности в зарубежных странах // Белорусская экономика: анализ, прогноз, регулирование. 2002. №12. С. 2-9.
17. Гитин А. Деятельность европейских промышленных ТНК в ЦВЕ и СНГ // Мировая экономика и международные отношения. 2006. №9. С. 41 -49.
18. Мясникович М. В. Экономическая безопасность государства: проблемы оценки и управления // Социально-экономическая безопасность государства: оценка, обеспечение:
материалы Междунар. науч.-практ. конф., Минск, 11-12 дек. 2001 г.: в 2 т. Минск, 2003. Т. 1. С. 5-22.
19. Пинигин В. В. Методические подходы к оценке страновых инвестиционных рисков // Белорусская экономика: анализ, прогноз, регулирование. 2000. №5. С. 35-48.
20. Шимов В. Н. Национальная экономика Беларуси: потенциалы, хозяйственные комплексы, направления развития. механизмы управления. Минск: Белорусский государственный экономический ун-т, 2005. 843 с.
21. Тихонов А. О. Политика экономической трансформации с позиции макродинамического подхода // Белорусский экономический журнал. 2002. №1. С. 54-59.
22. Бинько И. Ф., Базивлюк Я. Б., Коваленко С. О. Политика протекционизма как составная экономической безопасности Украины. Киев: Национальный институт стратегических исследований, 1997. 78 с.
23. Волков Л. В. Проблемы научно-технической безопасности Российской экономики // Финансы и кредит. 2003. №18. С. 21-25.
24. Грачев Н. Прямые иностранные инвестиции в страны ЦВЕ: механизмы привлечения // Белорусский банковский бюллетень. 2016. №5 (160). С. 50-53.
25. Ефремов К. И., Георгадзе Е. И. Вопросы оценки экономической безопасности региона // Вопросы статистики. 2002. №2. С. 57-59.
26. Захаров А. П. Актуальные аспекты международной экономической безопасности России // Внешнеэкономический бюллетень. 2004. №8. С. 43-46.
27. Коротков Э. М., Беляев А. А. Управление экономической безопасностью государства // Менеджмент в России и за рубежом. 2001. №6. С. 9-25.
Работа поступила Принята к публикации
в редакцию 15.07.2018 г. 18.07.2018 г.
Cite as (APA):
Shvaiba, D. (2018). Methods of substantiation of the subject area of the forecast of socioeconomic security of the industrial sector. Bulletin of Science and Practice, 4(8), 169-176.
Ссылка для цитирования:
Shvaiba D. Methods of substantiation of the subject area of the forecast of socio-economic security of the industrial sector // Бюллетень науки и практики. 2018. Т. 4. №8. С. 169-176. Режим доступа: http://www.bulletennauki.com/shvaiba-8-2018 (дата обращения 15.08.2018).
