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21UDC 338.2(476)+316.42(476) JEL classification: H10, J58, P35, Z13
APPROBATION OF THE METHOD OF SUBSTANTIATION OF THE SUBJECT AREA OF THE FORECAST OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
©Shvaiba D., ORCID: 0000-0001-6783-9765, Ph.D., doctoral student, Belarusian trade Union of workers of chemical, mining and oil industries, Belarusian national technical University,
Minsk, Belarus, [email protected]
АПРОБАЦИЯ МЕТОДИКИ ОБОСНОВАНИЯ ПРЕДМЕТНОЙ ОБЛАСТИ ПРОГНОЗА СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО СЕКТОРА
©Швайба Д. Н., ORCID: 0000-0001-6783-9765, канд. экон. наук, докторант, Белорусский профсоюз работников химической, горной и нефтяной отраслей промышленности, Белорусский национальный технический университет, г. Минск, Беларусь, [email protected]
Abstract. The current structure of the industrial sector of the Republic of Belarus, statistical data on the dynamics of the sectoral structure, the structure of exports and imports of the main commodity groups in the context of the CIS countries and other countries were used for testing the methodology. At the same time, their sectoral identification was carried out for the exported commodity group in order to guarantee the unity of the method of post-segment evaluation. For industry dispersal, a method of ranking is used and the purpose of the product is provided, determined by the content of each segment. The rank of individual sectors of the economy in the sectoral structure of the industrial sector is established on the principle of a greater share in the output of the industrial sector.
Аннотация. Для апробации методики применена существующая на текущий момент структура промышленного сектора Республики Беларусь, статистические данные о динамике отраслевой структуры, структуре экспорта и импорта основных товарных групп в разрезе государств СНГ и иных государств. При этом по экспортируемой товарной группе проведена их отраслевая идентификация с тем, дабы гарантировать единство способа посегментной оценки. Для отраслевого рассредоточивания применен способ ранжирования и предусмотрено предназначение продукции, определяемое содержанием каждого из сегментов. Ранг отдельных секторов экономики в отраслевой структуре промышленного сектора установлен по принципу большего удельного веса в выпуске продукции промышленного сектора.
Keywords: socio-economic security, government; society, enterprise; employee, threat, security, interests, economics, analysis, system.
Ключевые слова: социально-экономическая защищенность, государство, общество, предприятие, работник, угроза, защищенность, интересы, экономика, анализ, система.
The current structure of the industrial sector of the Republic of Belarus, statistical data on the dynamics of the sectoral structure, the structure of exports and imports of the main commodity
groups in the context of the CIS countries and other countries were used for testing the methodology. At the same time, their sectoral identification was carried out for the exported commodity group in order to guarantee the unity of the method of post-segment evaluation (Tables 1-2). For industry dispersal, a method of ranking is used and the purpose of the product is provided, determined by the content of each of the signatures. So, in table 1. the rank of individual sectors of the economy in the sectoral structure of the industrial sector is established on the principle of a greater share in the output of the industrial sector and is indicated by Ui.
Table 1.
THE DYNAMICS OF THE SECTORAL STRUCTURE OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS FOR THE PERIOD 1990-2017
Industrial sectors
Specific weight ofproducts of individual Rank of individual industries by
1990 1998 2005 2017 Index of change 1990 to 2017 1990 1998 2005 2017
Industrial sector, total 100 100 100 100 X
Electric power and fuel 7.2 18.1 26.2 29 4.02 U4 U2 U1 U1
segment
Ferrous metallurgy 0.9 2.4 2.9 4,2 4.4 U8 U8 U8 U5
Chemical and 9.0 14.3 12.5 10.1 1.12 U5 U4 U4 U4
petrochemical
Mechanical engineering 34.2 23.3 20.5 21 0.61 U1 U1 U2 U2
and metal working
Forest, woodworking 4.4 5.3 5.0 3.0 0.68 U6 U6 U6 U8
and pulp and paper
segment
Building Material 3.7 5.1 3.4 3.1 0.83 U7 U7 U7 U7
Segment
Light industry 17.2 8.0 8.4 4,0 0.23 U2 U5 U5 U6
Food segment 14.9 17.9 17.3 14 0.94 U3 U3 U3 U3
Source: author's development based on data (1-2).
Table 1. it is possible to determine that during the stage of 1990-2017 in the sectoral structure of the industrial sector of the Republic of Belarus there was a change of dominant segments. In particular, the higher rank (U1) since 2005, received the fuel and energy segment. Belarusian researchers explain this situation by the fact that due to the use of internal resources of the state and measures to increase production capacity in the fuel and energy segment, the production of fuel and energy resources has increased [1]. But the main change is caused by the price point — the rise of tariffs for these resources on the global market. By 2017, the grade of metallurgy increased from U8 to U5. The rank of machine-building and metal-working segments decreased (from U1 to U2), while the remaining segments retained the rank. The invariability of the rank of a number of segments can be explained by the demands of the domestic market, the stability of consumers and state regulation of tariffs for socially important products. The results of the ranking of export-oriented segments of the industrial sector of the Republic of Belarus are given in Table 2.
Analysis of the table shows that the rank of economic sectors exporting products to the CIS and other countries does not match. In particular, the maximum rank of exporting products to the CIS countries is machine-building and Metalworking (SE1), metallurgy (SE2), petrochemical and chemical segments (SE3). The rank by the years of the period of these economic sectors remains
constant. The maximum rank of sectors of the economy exporting products to other countries is assigned to the sectors of the extractive segment (DE1), petrochemical and chemical segment (DE2), metallurgy (DE3). It remained constant during the period 2000-2017.
Table 2.
DYNAMICS OF THE STRUCTURE OF EXPORTS OF THE MAIN COMMODITY GROUPS OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS, % FOR THE PERIOD 2000-2017 AND ITS INDUSTRY RANKING
Export product Identification of the In CIS countries, Rank In other countries, Rank
industrial sector segment by year (SEi) by year (DEi)
2000 2008 2017 2000 2008 2017
Mineral product Electric power and fuel 10.7 5.0 6.4 SE 6 34.5 59.4 65.7 DE1
complex
Chemical segment Chemical and 11.4 9.3 9.9 SE 3 22.2 15.8 13.0 DE 2
products petrochemical
Wood and wood Forest, woodworking and 4.1 3.8 3.4 SE 7 4.6 3.2 2.2 DE 6
products pulp and paper segment
Textiles and Light industry 10.8 7.8 7.2 SE 5 10.2 4.3 3.3 DE 4
textile products
Base metals and Ferrous metallurgy 6.2 8.9 9.0 SE 4 8.8 6.4 7.0 DE 3
articles thereof
Machinery and Mechanical engineering 15.5 17.9 17.8 SE 2 3.7 1.9 1.5 DE 7
equipment and Metalworking
Means of transport Mechanical engineering 18.8 19.0 20.1 SE 1 4.5 3.6 2.9 DE 5
and Metalworking
Source: elaboration of the author based on data (2, c. 257).
Industry identification of imported products and ranking are presented in Table 3.
Table 3.
DYNAMICS OF THE STRUCTURE OF IMPORTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS, % FOR THE PERIOD 2000-2017 AND ITS INDUSTRY RANKING
Import group
Identification of the
In CIS countries, Rank To other States, by Rank
industrial sector by year (SIi) year (DIi)
2000 2008 2017 2000 2008 2017
Mineral product The power and fuel 43.2 50.1 53.2 SI1 1.1 0.9 1.0 DI5
Chemical industry segment Chemical and 10.8 8.0 8.2 SI3 21.5 19.1 19.5 DI2
products Base metals and petrochemical Ferrous metallurgy 14.3 14.4 14.1 SI2 8.1 5.2 4.3 DI4
articles thereof
Machinery, Mechanical engineering 8.2 8.8 7.7 SI4 24.4 28.9 29.2 DI1
equipment and mechanisms and Metalworking
Means of transport Mechanical engineering and Metalworking 3.0 2.7 2.6 SI5 7.5 12.0 13.1 DI3
Source: elaboration of the author based on data (2, c. 242).
According to the table, a higher rank in imports from the CIS countries in 2017 contains products of the mining segment and metallurgy (SI1), which is caused by the demands of many sectors of the economy in natural resources and metal. First of all, this applies to mechanical engineering and metal processing, producing metal-intensive products. Imports of products related to mechanical engineering and metal processing, in 2017 was awarded the rank of SI4, and products
of petrochemical and chemical signatures — the rank of SI3. Among the imports in 2017 from other countries, the rank DI1 (the highest) belongs to the products of engineering and Metalworking. For the state, which is actively carrying out the modernization of the technical base of the production process, this precedent is considered as a positive phenomenon, provided that the imported equipment is considered modern. Products of petrochemical and chemical segments were awarded the rank of DI2. A significant grade of products of this segment is explained by the need for foreign raw materials for the work of chemical economic entities and other industries of the Republic of Belarus.
The assessment of dispersion of characteristics of the industrial sector of the Republic of Belarus allows to perform their segmentation in this way (Table 4).
Table 4.
SEGMENTATION OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR ON THE BASIS OF THE GRADES OF THE SEGMENTS OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR IN 2017
Integrated segments of the industrial complex
Segments of the industrial sector
The grade of the segment
Ui
SEi
DEi
SIi
DIi
Technical and technological
Social
Communication
The power and fuel segment U1
Mechanical engineering and U2 Metalworking *
Chemical and petrochemical U4
Ferrous metallurgy U5
Food segment U3
Light industry U6
The power and fuel segment SE6 DE1 SI1 DI5
Mechanical engineering and SE1 DE5 SI4 DI1
Metalworking
Chemical and petrochemical SE3 DE2 SI3 DI2
Ferrous metallurgy and mining SE4 DE3 SI2 DI4
segment
Light industry SE5 DE4 X X
Note. * In addition to the segments that produce consumer goods. Source: elaboration of the author based on data [2-14].
The table is made in the context of the considered segments on the basis of the generality of the industrial composition of the core of technological structures of 4 and 5 values. A significant rank of these sectors of the economy in the industrial structure of the industrial grid of the Republic of Belarus and the possibility of increasing the rank presented an opportunity to note the technical and technological sector of industry, which is integrated components of the fuel and energy, engineering and Metalworking, petrochemical and chemical segments and metallurgy. The technical and technological sector of the industry stands out for its scale, because it is formed by segments that make a great contribution to the creation of industrial sector products. The public sector consists of segments that are aimed at the production of socially important products, have an end customer and maintain a stable rank in the industry structure: light, food, forestry, wood and pulp and paper industry. Without paying attention to the fact that the sector stands out for the smallest scale, a set of sectors of its components forms the basis for the formation of internal sources of maintaining the independence of the state and significantly determines the food security. In accordance with this, the communication sector includes segments of engineering and metal processing, petrochemical and chemical segments, metallurgy and mining segment, as well as light
industry. The study of the composition of the sectors of the economy of the provided section and their ranks allows us to see that the sectors of the economy of mechanical engineering and metal processing, as well as mining sectors of the economy and metallurgy have the greatest ability to "include" in the system of world economic relations. This is explained by the resulting specialization of the industrial sector of the Republic of Belarus. It should be noted that the products of individual sub-sectors of engineering stands out for the highest knowledge intensity (instrument-making, radio engineering, electrical, optical-mechanical, electronic) [15-16]. As a result, its significant rank in export operations is considered as an additional probability of using competitive advantages for the modern development of the Republic of Belarus. At the same time, the presence of the same rank of steel products and mining sectors of the economy in import operations reflects the emerging dependence of the raw material base segments of the industrial sector of the country on imports.
Comparison of data development groups, economic sectors, distributed according to the stages of competitive lifting have shown that promptly develop segments attributable to both financial and inventive stage. Thus, in 2017, the mass index of fuel and metallurgy products amounted to 109%, petrochemical and chemical segments 107%, engineering and metal processing — 115%, production of building materials — 108%. But the mass index of the basic product — the electric power industry — was 99.7%. This suggests that there is a possibility of a "narrowing of security" in the near future. In other words, the resource factors in the Republic of Belarus are guaranteed and maintained a rational degree of protection. At the same time, the assessment of the resistance parameter of the provided value shows that the indicator is considered conditional, because the state does not have enough internal sources for long-term assistance of the formed industry ratios. An additional indicator in the assessment of the stabilization stability of the structure of the industrial sector is the coefficient of structural changes. Calculations of this coefficient for the industrial sector of the Republic of Belarus are given on the basis of (1). His assessment indicates a decrease in the intensity of structural changes and the direction to the stabilization of the structure. The more distinct trend is noticeable in the dynamics of the generalizing coefficients, for the calculation of which the number of industrial and production personnel is used. The intensity of structural changes was reduced throughout the study period [17-18].
Valuation based on the price of fixed assets is the least correct, which is explained by the imperfection of methods for revaluation of fixed assets.
Thus, as of 2017, stability in the industrial sector was insufficient. The evolutionary stability was partly recorded by comparing the sectoral composition of the emerging "core" of the modern technological structure in the economy of the Republic of Belarus and the leading countries of financial and economic development.
Sources:
(1). Industry of the Republic of Belarus, 2011-2016. Minsk, Minstat, 2017. 214.
(2). Commonwealth of Independent States in 2017: stat. yearbook. interstate. stat. com. Commonwealth of Independent States. Moscow, Statistical Committee of the CIS, 2018. 377.
Источники:
(1). Промышленность Республики Беларусь, 2011-2016 гг. Минск: Минстат, 2017. 214 с.
(2). Содружество Независимых Государств в 2017 году: стат. ежегодник / межгос. стат. ком. Содружества Независимых Государств. М.: Статкомитет СНГ, 2018. 377 с.
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Работа поступила Принята к публикации
в редакцию 15.08.2018 г. 19.08.2018 г.
Cite as (APA):
Shvaiba, D. (2018). Approbation of the method of substantiation of the subject area of the forecast of social and economic security of the industrial sector. Bulletin of Science and Practice, 4(9), 253-259.
Ссылка для цитирования:
Shvaiba D. Approbation of the method of substantiation of the subject area of the forecast of social and economic security of the industrial sector // Бюллетень науки и практики. 2018. Т. 4. №9. С. 253-259. Режим доступа: http://www.bulletennauki.com/shvaiba-9 (дата обращения 15.09.2018).
