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Vasili Belozerov,
D. Sc. (Politics), Head of the Chair of Political Sciences, Moscow State Linguistic University SPECIFIC FEATURES OF THE GEOPOLITICAL PICTURE OF THE MODERN WORLD
The present development stage of civilization is characterized by the constant emergence of new trends and phenomena. One can fully agree with the words of Sergei Lavrov, Minister of foreign affairs of the Russian Federation, that "the problem of determining the present stage of world development is one of the most fundamental questions in the international relations of our day."
At the same time the world processes of our epoch have definite geopolitical determinants. This is why the perception of the present-day processes cannot be full enough without understanding the geopolitical picture of the world. Indeed, it is the system of scientific knowledge of the geopolitical structure of the world which has taken shape to date. This picture cannot be characterized fully enough due to a shortage of time and space. At the same time it is possible to make note of the basic components - phenomena, processes and problems as its elements.
First of all, its is necessary to take into account the fact that the generalized characteristic and initial point of the perception of the changes going on in the world is globalization, the formation of information society and the problems connected with these processes.
Among the most important characteristics of these processes are the growing spatial and time generality and their interdependence. The deepening and expanding of globalization is a contradictory process, inasmuch as increasing financial-economic and political interdependence is taking place along with the economic and political processes slipping from under the control of national states. Due to this, and also to some other reasons, the confrontation between a state as an institution created on a definite territory and transnational structures becomes the main contradiction of the present epoch. As is known, transnational structures have their own value orientations.
The following features can be singled out as the most important characteristics of our epoch.
1. The high dynamics of socio-economic and political processes, suddenness and ineffective predictability of events of a political, economic and military nature, including those of a global scope.
2. The events and processes taking place in a separate state (and within the framework of a local cultural medium) can rapidly acquire a global character. Practically any event provoked or organized by interested subjects can transform into an event of worldwide significance. An armed conflict, initially limited to the boundaries of any one country, can become regional or even global.
3. Political changes and technical innovations touched on the broadest popular masses.
4. The interconnection and interdependence of the various spheres of society's life result in that a transformation of one of them leads to significant consequences for others.
The reverse side of globalization and information society is the possibility for practically unlimited access of people to any information, including one which used to be restricted previously. Thereby all can have access to technologies, including the most destructive ones.
The consequences of the explosive development of the means of mass information and communication are well known to all.
The wide use of the results of the development of science presents serious challenges to humanity. Russian scientists assert that now man has the possibility to change his natural properties and interfere with his genetic nature. Longevity and the state of health become increasingly dependent on financial possibilities. In these conditions it can so happen that the world's population will become divided into two non-crossing branches.
The challenge, which is understood by very few people, is the absence of an adequate theory of the development of human society and instruments for forecasting the future.
The modern epoch is also characterized by the unequal development of the world against the backdrop of the selfish desire of a comparatively small number of advanced countries and transnational structures to ensure their own prosperity, disregarding others.
The exhaustion of natural resources, primarily, hydrocarbons, is one of the determining factors of world development. In case of the expansion and growth, in one way or another, of the so-called golden billion at the expense of other rapidly developing economies of a number of countries (for instance, China, India, Russia, Brazil, Iran), it would practically be impossible to satisfy the growing requirements on the basis of natural resources existing in the world.
Having broad opportunities the advanced countries are striving to preserve the existing economic inequality, which is now coming out as a new form of colonialism. As soon as new deposits of fuel-and-energy resources are found in any region of the planet, political stability is undermined, radical and extremist organizations step up their activity, and a change of "undemocratic regime" takes place there... Besides, a
military infrastructure of the United States is developed near a given state, and military force is used at the concluding stage.
The struggle for fresh water resources increases, which has been noted by President Putin in one of his articles written on the eve of the last presidential elections.
The global demographic crisis, which has regional and ethnic specific features, also contributes to the uneven world development. As is known, birth rate in the developed countries, above all, in West European ones, is on decline steadily, whereas the population in the Third World countries is rapidly growing. These processes inevitably increase demographic unbalance between the regions of the planet.
Evidently, uneven development is a basis for conflicts between advanced countries and practically the rest of the world. It would be quite appropriate to remember Samuel Huntington's views on the implacable contradiction between the interests of the West (the "Westerners") and the remaining nations (the "Non-Westerners")."
Experience shows that the subjects which oppose states, peoples and civilizations, have their own strategies and actively resort to geopolitical operations with a view to strengthening their might, establishing a new world order and ensuring free access to the natural resources of the world. Such situation does not, and cannot, suit ethno-cultural civilizations, including Russia.
A distinguishing feature of our time is a considerable lowering of the level of manageability of socio-political processes at the global and intrastate levels.
This process can be observed especially clearly:
a) in the change of the role of traditional international institutions in regulating global processes;
b) in the wider practice of "color revolutions";
c) in the emergence of the so-called failing states.
We should note that in the present conditions the risks and threats to national and international security acquire an ever greater and more comprehensive character, which makes it difficult to forecast them.
This comprehensive character can be seen in the simultaneous aggregate influence of several factors and their various combinations. We mean intrastate and regional crises and conflicts, anatomy of states, struggle for natural resources, terrorism, organized crime, slave trade, illegal arms trade, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and means of their delivery, mass migration (primarily, illegal migration), smuggling operations, money laundering, ethnic and religious radicalism and extremism, drug production and trafficking, etc.
Predictability becomes still more difficult because in most cases there are no borders and any territorial bounds for the emergence of risks and threats due to which they are easily spreading beyond the boundaries of any country and acquire regional or international character. As a result, threats to security can emerge at any time in any place of the world and can be directed against any state or persons.
It should be noted that a number of structures of extremist and terrorist nature are ably using the situation. As is known, many important infrastructures in modern advanced countries are very vulnerable.
In the present conditions, in contrast to previous historical periods, non-state and non-governmental actors become full-fledged participants in geopolitical processes. The global subjects of world politics, economics and culture are formed on the basis of coordinating the activities of a multitude of participants.
Among the consequences of the existing situation one can single out the following:
Violation of the traditional balance of forces and stability on the global scale, which were connected with the establishment of the Westphalian system of international relations and the results of World War II. The present standards of international relations and the existing international institutions are a reflection of the status quo of that period;
Possession of weapons was one of the conditions for the emergence of many new non-state and non-governmental geopolitical subjects which received an opportunity to present their conditions to the traditional subjects;
Abolition of the monopoly of national states and their coalitions on military force and weapons of mass destruction. This gave rise to "demonopolized violence", according to the American futurologist E. Toffler.
Apparently, the modern epoch is transitory, and after it another development stage of the world will begin. Adaptation to a new situation demands considerable efforts on the part of all participants in geopolitical processes.
First of all, we will come across a weaker management of world processes and a further growth of chaotic elements in them in the near future.
Then the role of external factors in the internal development of individual states will be growing and along with it the real possibilities of a state in the implementation of its sovereign rights and fulfillment of obligations will diminish.
Finally, the demands to the quality of state management at a national and international level will also grow.
In these conditions the geopolitical subjects will have to evolve adequate mechanisms and instruments to react to these challenges. Simultaneously, the states, peoples and civilizations should avail
themselves of the opportunity to become the subjects capable to assume global responsibility.
The position of Russia on these issues and its strategy should become clear-cut and known to the international community.
The geopolitical picture of the world and the place of Russia in it are outlined but briefly in this article. Many important characteristics need to be more thoroughly described.
Report at an academic conference called "Russia in the Geopolitical Structure of the World in the 21st century " held at the Moscow State Linguistic University on October 18, 2012.
Yuri Dorokhov,
Political analyst (Astrakhan State University) THE ROLE OF INFORMATION POLICY IN DERADICALIZATION OF DAGESTAN SOCIETY
The modern world is manifested in a multitude of ethno-political conflicts demanding, in each individual case, the creation of effective means to overcome them. Russia entered this century with the heavy burden of sharp contradictions and problems. One of them is terrorism disguised by radical and religious motives, which is ripe in some of the North Caucasian republics. After the well-known events in the Chechen republic, the wave of extremism and terrorism has swept over Dagestan, one of the most religious North Caucasian republics, which is inhabited by more than 30 basic nationalities.
Dagestan continues to remain an object of subversive desires of various international organizations, which are trying to realize their long-term plans to wrest first Dagestan and then the entire North Caucasian region from Russia. The state and development trends of the
