CC BY
8DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2023-24-3-2 EDN: QIZOVA JEL classification: F51, L63, O32
Jun Li University of Science and Technology Liaoning, Anshan, China
Irina S. Pylaeva Washington, USA
Maria V. Podshivalova South Ural State University, Chelyabisnk, Russia
Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology:
A benefit or a harm?
Abstract. The issues of Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology are the subject of the studies by both Russian and Chinese economists. However, there are still few works that systematise the main science and technology indicators (MSTI) of both countries and the impact of sanctions on the science and technology development. Filling this research gap is the goal of the present contribution. Methodologically, the paper is based on macroeconomic analysis. The methods include retrospective and comparative analysis, grouping, as well as SWOT analysis. The data were sourced from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the World Bank, and the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The paper identifies success factors behind China and Russia's science and technology development and reveals that the common factor for both countries is high quality of human capital. The MSTI analysis of each country for the period of 2010-2021, such as the share of R&D expenditure in GDP, the ratio of patents issued on inventions to country's working-age population, the share of high-tech exports and imports in GDP, international publication activity, etc. demonstrates national differences in their scale. The SWOT analysis of the Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology shows that the main threat to the cooperation is the sanctions pressure. The authors conclude that such cooperation does not promote Russia's science and technology development; moreover, it may itself put the country in jeopardy as it could turn into a resource appendage of the PRC. The findings can be useful in the development of road maps and strategies for the implementation of cooperation in science and technology between China and Russia.
Keywords: science and technology development; Sino-Russian cooperation; sanctions; export; import; high technologies; Russia; China.
Acknowledgements: The research is funded by the Liaoning province social science planning fund (project no. L21AGJ001).
For citation: Li J., Pylaeva I. S., Podshivalova M. V. (2023). Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology: A benefit or a harm? Journal of New Economy, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 22-45. DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2023-24-3-2. EDN: QIZOVA.
Article info: received February 15, 2023; received in revised form April 7, 2023; accepted April 17, 2023
Introduction
China is rightfully considered Russia's biggest international business partner [Syryamkin, Yan, Vaganova, 2021]. In 2021, the trade turnover between Russia and China amounted to more than 146 billion US dollars, which is 36 % more than in 20201. This fact confirms that it is expedient to deepen cooperation between the two countries in science and technology.
The past two years witnessed the emergence of unprecedented opportunities and radical challenges for both countries. In this context, there was a significant increase in the role of global interaction in science and technology, which is an "interlacing of cooperation and competition" [Li, 2021, p. 94]. This interaction has a long history, a solid ground and shared goals of integrating economy and science. Both the PRC and the Russian Federation are facing similar difficulties, namely the growing technological competition and the suspended cooperation with developed countries, primarily with the United States. According to Chinese experts, with the development of science and technology in the PRC, especially in some particular areas, there started to emerge the benefits from Sino-Russian cooperation reinforced by the proximity of scientific and technological potential [Gao, 2021; Li, 2021; Li, Li, 2021]. As is commonly known, the cooperation between the USSR and China played a key part in forming the PRC's industry, establishing research institutions in the country and nurturing scientific and technical talents [Lavrikova, Andreeva, Ratner, 2018; Isaev, 2021; Gao, 2021].
In 2020, China announced the implementation of a new economic model in line with the 'dual circulation' strategy. Its main idea is to make the most of the advantages of China's immense domestic market and simultaneously attract foreign investment into the economy. This strategy centres on reducing the dependence on foreign markets and technologies. Due to the changing global political situation, Russia faced similar fundamental challenges in 2022. The leaders of both countries believe that the Sino-Russian relations have entered a new era of "support, deep integration, innovation, and mutual benefit" [Gao, 2021, p. 97].
With this background, the relevance of studies on Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology has increased in terms of threats and opportunities, as well as strengths and weaknesses of the participating countries.
Closing this gap in studies was the purpose of the current research, which was attained by accomplishing the following objectives:
- to identify success factors in the development of China and Russia in science and technology;
1 The General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. http://www.customs.gov.cn/cus-toms/xwfb34/302330/4124672/index.html.
- to select scientific and technological development metrics and analyse their dynamics in the countries under review in 2010-2021;
- to perform SWOT-analysis of Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology.
Success factors in the science and technology development
of Russia and China
Before the beginning of 2022, China and Russia had slightly different goals in the sphere of science and technology. Russia strived to reduce its dependence on energy exports and solve the problem of import substitution that emerged after the events of 2014, while China planned to switch its status of the world product assembly centre to a high-tech economy [Voronova, 2019; Zhou et al., 2021]. For many years, in terms of science and technology, the PRC has focused primarily on cooperation with the United States [Isaev, 2021], which allowed the country to introduce new manufacturing technologies [Huang, Wu, 2012; Yu et al., 2021]. According to Lavrikova, Andreeva, Ratner [2018], China made significant progress in innovative development in 2006-2018 and is now outstripping the Russian economy in many respects; China's scientific and technological advances are beyond doubt as well.
What the two countries have in common is a strategic focus on promoting economic development through technological innovation. The key priorities of the science and technology development and industrial policy in Russia and China are quite analogous.
The priority of China's development until 2035 is strengthening the national strategic potential in science and technology. According to the country's leadership, this will require further structural reform. A new roadmap for economic development embraces measures to enhance the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, launching projects to reengineer production capacities, stimulating a large number of specialised enterprises within the framework of Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology. At the end of 2022, China designed a 10-year fundamental research development programme to restructure key public laboratories, reform activities of research institutions, strengthen the dominant role of innovative enterprises, and bring teaching closer to research.
Table 1 presents the decisive factors in the success of the PRC's science and technology development.
As shown in Table 1, the key factors of the PRC's success today are accessible funding, highly qualified research staff, a developed scientific and technological infrastructure, and access to the world's repository of knowledge and expertise. It is obvious that in the future China plans not only to rely on these advantages, but also to strengthen them [Zhou, Du, 2021; Zhang, Song, 2022].
Table 1. Success factors in China's science and technology development
No. Factor Success indicators
1 Human capital of high quality Researchers from China made up 12 % of Clarivate Analytics' list of Highly Cited Researchers 2020. China produces the world's second-largest number of highly cited research papers and ranks first in the number of patents for inventions
2 Rise in R&D investment The average annual growth rate of China's actual investment in scientific research in comparable prices between 1990 and 2018 was 14.4 %, which is 1.5 times the GDP growth rate over the same period. In 2019, national spending on R&D amounted to 2.21 trillion yuan (the world's second result), of which corporate spending in this field was 76.4 %. In 2020, the share of R&D expenditure in GDP reached 2.4 %. The PRC's multi-level capital market provides strong support for technological innovation. According to the 2019 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard, 507 of the 2,500 companies investing the largest sums in R&D in the world originated from China
3 Science and technology infrastructure A number of large scientific and technological infrastructures have been established in the country, as well as numerous national key laboratories and national engineering research centres. Regional innovation clusters are flourishing. As estimated by the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO), in 2019, 18 regions of China ranked among the top 100 global innovation clusters, and 3 regions -among the top 10 clusters
4 Integration in the global innovation network China has established government-level collaboration agreements on science and technology with 114 countries and regions, has become a member of more than 200 international organisations and multilateral scientific and technological mechanisms
Source: Own compilation based on [Chang, Lee, 1998; Feng, 2014; Lavrikova, Andreeva, Ratner, 2018; Hernández et al., 2020; Gao, 2021; Li, Li, 2021]; Cornell University, INSEAD, and WIPO (2019). The Global Innovation Index 2019: Creating healthy lives - The future of medical innovation. Ithaca, Fontainebleau, and Geneva. P. 61. https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/userfiles/file/reportpdf/gii-full-report-2019.pdf.
The priorities of the science and technology development of the Russian Federation, as stipulated by the corresponding Strategy1, are the transition to Industry 4.0 technologies and environmentally friendly (green) energy. This transition allows obtaining new scientific and technological results, which are, in particular, significant for the innovative development of the country's domestic market. At that, the document provides for two scenarios: import of technologies with partial development of R&D and targeted leadership in new technology markets.
1 On the Strategy for scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation: Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of December 1, 2016, no. 642. http://kremlin.ru/acts/bank/41449/page71. (In Russ.)
Table 2 presents the core factors that determine the success of Russia's science and technology development.
Table 2. Success factors in Russia's science and technology development
No. Factor Success indicators
1 Human capital of high quality The 6th position in the international ranking of the number of fulltime equivalent researchers per million inhabitants (among the top 5 are China, the USA, Japan, Germany and South Korea). There are 22 Nobel Prize laureates in the history of Russia, with 13 of them who received the award for fundamental research*
2 High level of fundamental research development A high share of fundamental research in R&D investment (about 1020 %). Russia is among the world's leaders in the field of fundamental theoretical studies on mathematics, physics, chemistry, and materials science
3 Active development of digital technologies in the economy at large There have been created 6 "Factories of the Future", 6 specialised competence centres for end-to-end technologies of the Technet direction within the National Technology Initiative. The Russian telecommunications infrastructure is among the world's most developed and extensive ones. The country has the cheapest prices on mobile Internet among developed economies and ranks fourth in the world**. According to Digital Banking Maturity by Deloitte Digital, at the end of 2018, Russian banks ranked second in terms of digital maturity in the EMEA region (Europe, Middle East and Africa)***
4 Experience in implementing scientific and technical projects on a global scale Russia is one of the few countries capable of implementing breakthrough scientific discoveries and projects in various industries and science fields (traditionally, this is the IT sector, the defence and nuclear industries, rocket science, and aviation). Among the projects of the last three years are the Akademik Lomonosov floating nuclear power plant, the NICA (Nuclotron based Ion Collider Facility) mega-science class project at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research; the world's first registered COVID-19 vaccine Sputnik-V, the creation of an unrivalled device for full communication with deaf-blind-mute people; the launch of the thermonuclear installation Tokamak T-15MD (a unique toroidal chamber with magnetic coils)
Source: Own compilation based on The Technet Roadmap: Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of March 29, 2019 no. 377 "On approval of the state programme of the Russian Federation Scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation" (revised on October 22, 2021 no. 1814) (In Russ.); [Feng, 2014; Lavrikova, Andreeva, Ratner, 2018; Lapochkina et al., 2020; Gao, 2021; Li, Li, 2021].
Notes: * Nobel Prize laureates (the USSR included). http://nobeliat.ru/countries.php; ** Content-Review. http://www.content-review.com/articles/47174/; *** Digital Banking Maturity 2020. https://www2. deloitte.com/ce/en/pages/financial-services/articles/digital-banking-maturity-2020.html.
The key success factors in Russia are slightly different from those in China. The factor that is common for both countries is the presence of highly qualified researchers, while the main distinguishing feature is the persistence of the fundamental science in the Russian Federation, established during the time of the USSR, as well as the breakthrough technological developments taking place in the country. It is worth noting that China has significant experience in solving the difficulties facing the RF, such as the insufficient investment in science and innovation, and the problems of the relationship between science and production [Vinogradova, 2014].
It is hardly possible to independently develop all aspects of the scientific and technological sphere in each of the countries under study, therefore, the intensification of Sino-Russian cooperation should be recognised as timely and expedient [Isaev, 2021, p. 57]. If the main goal of this cooperation is believed to be "building an innovation ecosystem" capable of consolidating not only technological chains, but also the economies of the two countries [Li, 2021, p. 94], then the identified success factors are sufficient and complementary for achieving this goal. Moreover, according to Gudjionsson and Nielsson [2017], in a number of areas, such as the development of the Arctic, Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology is as important for Eurasia, as it is for Western Europe.
Forming these mutually beneficial relationships in practice cannot be successful without established science and technology development trends in the two countries taken into account. In addition, such a cooperation definitely has its own strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that should be identified.
Materials and methods
The research methodology of the study is macroeconomic theory. The research data were mainly retrieved from the publicly available statistical resources in the countries under consideration and a review of the scientific literature on relevant topics. The results obtained are summarised using SWOT analysis, since it allows one, from a strategic perspective, to link the strengths and weaknesses of Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology, as well as to identify the major threats and opportunities for this interaction.
Using this logic, the study was conducted in several stages: - selecting scientific and technological development metrics based on the results of the analysis of legal documents, roadmaps for cooperation and statistical publications. The following set of indicators was selected: dynamics of R&D expenditures in GDP; dynamics of the share of invention patents in relation to the country's working-age population; international publication activity (the number of papers indexed in the Web of Science database per researcher); change in the share of research personnel in the total working-age population; dynamics of the number of postgraduate
students and researchers with candidate degrees in engineering sciences; dynamics of the share of high technologies exports and imports in GDP; data on the amount of mutual direct investments; data on exports and imports of high-tech products of both countries;
- studying the nature of changes in the indicators associated with the scientific and technological revolution of the RF and the PRC through a descriptive analysis of the two counties' statistical data for 2007-2021. Empirical evidence was obtained from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), HSE University, SPARK database, the Federal Customs Service, and the Bank of Russia, as well as the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC, and the World Bank;
- performing a SWOT analysis based on the entire array of the retrospective analysis results, analysis of legal documents, and scientific publications of Chinese and Russian experts. This made it possible to reflect the way in which experts and public authorities in both countries see the current state of science and technology cooperation, its opportunities and threats;
- identifying common directions for mutually beneficial technological cooperation between Russia and China based on systematisation of restrictions on high-technology exports against the two countries and comparison of the lists obtained.
Results and discussion
The new scientific and technological revolution and digital transformation of industry provide unprecedented opportunities to close the gap with technologically advanced countries. In 2014, China's Premier Li Keqiang stated that "the combination of China's industrial, capital and market advantages with Russia's advantages in resources, technology and talents will produce an aggregation effect and ignite the fire torch of innovation" [Li, Li, 2021, p. 54]. According to China's experts, the technology cooperation between the RF and the PRC will combine their strengths and compensate for the existing shortcomings in the shortest possible time [Gao, 2021]. Similar ideas have long been put forward by Russian scientists (cf.: [Kuzyk, Titarenko, 2006; Sokolov et al., 2017]).
R&D expenditures are a classic indicator of the science and technology development of the countries in question. For this reason, we started our analysis with this indicator and found that R&D expenditures in China grow annually (albeit with a slowdown), while in Russia they remain approximately at the same level (about 1 % of GDP) (Figure 1). It should be noted that the RF Government has taken measures to gradually increase spending on R&D and raise it to a level of at least 2 % of GDP1. Further to the implementation of the programme's activities, the Strategy for scientific
1 On approval of the state programme of the Russian Federation "Scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation": Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of March 29, 2019 no. 377 (revised on October 22, 2021 no. 1814). (In Russ.)
and technological development of the Russian Federation and the national project "Science and universities"1, Russia should enter the top 102 world powers in terms of R&D volumes. Nevertheless, in 2020, the gap in the relative value of R&D expenditures between the countries increased from 1.5 to 2.5 times.
It is noteworthy that a certain positive tendency in Russian R&D financing has yet still emerged: this is an upward trend in the share of business sector funds in domestic R&D spending (from 25.5 % in 2010 to 30.2 % in 2019) and a downward trend in the share of state funds (from 70.3 to 66.3 %)3.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
R&D expenditures in GDP China ■ Russia
R&D expenditures growth -China -Russia
Fig. 1. R&D expenditures in Russia and China, 2010-20204
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Both countries exhibit a similar dynamics of the working-age population: there is a steady decline in their numbers (Figure 2). In general, the decline rates are the same, but the indicated number in China is more than half of the population, and in Russia it is less than half (55.6 % and 48.3 % in 2020, respectively). An increase in the share of the working-age population in Russia was recorded only in 2015, which was most likely due to the accession of Crimea. Further, due to demographic problems associated with the population aging, this share continued decreasing.
In both countries, the dynamics of the share of patents issued in relation to the number of the working-age population over 11 years is similar to the dynamics of R&D spending (Figure 3). Over these years, the indicator of patent activity in China has increased 4 times (from 0.17 to 0.68 %), while in Russia it remained unchanged at the level of 0.04 %. Interestingly, however, that the quantitative indicator does not reflect the quality of innovations. In particular, researchers note that Russian
1 On the Strategy for scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation; Summary of the national project "Science and universities". https://ipfran.ru/files/10591/new_np_sci_uni.pdf. (In Russ.)
2 The country ranks ninth at the moment.
3 Gokhberg L. M., Ditkovsky K. A., Evnevich E. I., ... Fursov K. S. (2021). Science indicators: Statistical Yearbook 2021. Moscow: HSE Publishing house. 352 p. https://issek.hse.ru/mirror/pubs/share/456275228.pdf. (In Russ.)
4 Source: Own compilation based on Target indicators for the implementation of the Strategy for innovative development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020. https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/14477; National Bureau of Statistics of China. http://www.stats.gov.cn/; EPS database. http://olap.epsnet.com.cn/data-resource.html.
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developments are of a higher quality, but are not widespread, while Chinese ones are broadly implemented and applied, but can be of medium-tech level [Lavrikova, Andreeva, Ratner, 2018]. Moreover, Western analysts express doubts about the technological significance of patent applications in the PRC growing, pointing out that this process is partly driven by political decisions, which makes patenting a goal in itself [Kroll, 2016].
As shown in Figure 3, the ratio of publications indexed in the Web of Science (WoS) and the number of research staff in Russia and China remains approximately
1 Source: Own compilation based on the Federal State Statistics Service. https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/media-bank/Eh1jZ6YK/innov6.xls. (In Russ.), https://rosstat.gov.ru/labour_force. (In Russ.); National Bureau of Statistics of China. http://www.stats.gov.cn/; EPS database, http://olap.epsnet.com.cn/data-resource.html.
2 The Russian Statistical Yearbook: 2021: Statistical Yearbook. Moscow, Rosstat. 692 p. https://rosstat.gov.ru/ storage/mediabank/Ejegodnik_2021.pdf; Rosstat. https://rosstat.gov.ru/labour_force; Science Indicators 2021: Statistical Yearbook; National Bureau of Statistics of China. http://www.stats.gov.cn/; EPS database. http://olap.epsnet. com.cn/data-resource.html.
the same. Nonetheless, each researcher in China produces 4 scientific works indexed in the WoS database, while in Russia this rate equals 0.1. In part, this can be due to the fact that Russian scientists has only recently been advised to submit their research papers in international periodicals rather than those prescribed by the Higher Attestation Commission (the so-called 'VAK journals list').
In 2010-2019, the total number of publications by Russian authors indexed in Scopus increased almost 3 times (from 40.7 thousand to 115.9 thousand units), and the country's contribution to the global flow of publications increased from 1.6 to 3.5 %x. Additionally, according to Elsevier, in 2021 there was an 11.4 % increase in the number of papers by Russian researchers in Q1 scholarly journals in CiteScore2.
The advantage of Russian science over Chinese one is the high proportion of research staff in the working-age population, which is about 1 % and 0.07%, respectively (see Figure 3). At the same time, during the period under study, China demonstrated a slight increase in this indicator (from 0.04 to 0.07 %), while Russia showed a decrease (from 1.09 to 0.96 %).
We believe that the main reason for this gap is still not the size of population, which differs in the two countries with a ratio of approximately 1:10. If China's population was 10 times smaller, the share of research personnel would reach 0.7 %, which is still lower than the rate for the Russia. In our opinion, a higher proportion of researchers in Russia is associated with the legacy of the Soviet period, when the national scientific school was actively developed and supported. The positive trends in the growing number of scientists in the PRC are associated with the prestige of this profession, which implies stable and high salaries and employment in government institutions. However, one of the crucial problems for China's learned society is the lack of talented researchers and world-class experts in the field of science and technology. As a result, the PRC has a small number of its own breakthrough innovative products that can compete internationally [Mazilov, Sheng, 2018].
We have also analysed the data on the number of postgraduate students and researchers who defended their candidate dissertations in engineering sciences in Russia (Figure 4).
In the last 8 years, their numbers have been declining annually: in general, the figures have decreased from 8.5 to 4.5 thousand and from about 2 thousand to 500 persons, respectively. The share of graduates who defended their candidate dissertations halved from 20 % in 2012 to almost 10 % in 2020. However, there have been positive changes as well. Over the past decade, the number of researchers aged 30-39 has increased 1.6 times, and the share of scientists of this age group has increased from 16.2
1 Science Indicators 2021: Statistical Yearbook.
2 Russia ranked 10th in the world in terms of the number of indexed scientific publications. RIA News Agency. https://ria.ru/amp/20220208/nauka-1771479284.html. (In Russ.)
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to 27.4 %2. According to the experts from HSE University, this can be attributed to the increase in the birth rate in Russia in 1980-1985 and state support measures for promising highly qualified personnel.
According to the Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China3, in 2010-2021 the total number of postgraduate students in all scientific fields doubled (from 62 thousand to 125.8 thousand people). The percentage of graduates who defended their candidate dissertations, on the contrary, decreased - from 79 % in 2010 to 55 % in 2021 (to compare: in 2010-2020, the number of all postgraduates in Russia decreased 2.4 times - from 33.8 to 14 thousand people; the percentage of those who defended their theses also fell from 28 to 8.9 %). Data on the number of postgraduate students in the field of engineering sciences was obtained only for 2018-2020. During this period, their numbers increased by almost a third - from 37.2 thousand people in 2018 to 47.9 thousand people in 2020.
High technology is the foundation of countries' economies in the future, and this is why close Sino-Russian cooperation in this area is of high importance [Chistyako-va, Kolpakova, 2015]. We examined, therefore, the dynamics of the share of high-tech exports and imports in GDP of the countries under consideration (Figure 5).
The dynamics is obviously multidirectional: while China is reducing the share of high-tech exports and imports in GDP, Russia is increasing it. Until 2015, there was a clear downward trend in this indicator in China, however, between 2016 and 2020 there was somewhat stabilisation of the shares of imports and exports at the level of 4-5 %. This indicates the PRC striving to move from a catching-up technological development to leadership. At the same time, over the past 10 years, the share of exports/imports in the Russian Federation did not exceed 0.3 %, which illustrates the technological development system being relatively isolated.
1 The Russian Statistical Yearbook 2021: Statistical Yearbook. Moscow, Rosstat. 692 p. https://rosstat.gov.ru/ storage/mediabank/Ejegodnik_2021.pdf; Rosstat. https://rosstat.gov.ru/labour_force; Science Indicators 2021: Statistical Yearbook.
2 Science Indicators 2021: Statistical Yearbook.
3 Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_sjzl/moe_560/2020/.
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Data on the dynamics of mutual direct investment and trade is presented in Figure 6. The evidence for Chinese investment was retrieved from official data sources of the two countries - Rosstat (data are given according to the Bank of Russia's methodology2) and the statistical authorities of the PRC. There are some discrepancies between the PRC and the RF data in absolute values3, but in general, the nature of the changes is similar. The differences are primarily related to the methodology of data specification. The trend in Chinese investing in the Russian economy is cyclical: following a sharp peak in investments in 2014 (2015), there was a steady years-long decline reaching in 2020 the level of 2010. The indicated peak of investments is associated with the coordination of programmes for the Silk Road economic belt construction [Tszou, 2021]. Despite these investments being relatively large-scale, direct investments from the PRC still play an insignificant role for the scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation due to the fact that their sectoral breakdown is dominated by the extractive industry (41 %) and agriculture (23 %). The R&D sector accounts for no more than 5 %4. However, there has emerged some tendency towards expanding the scope of investment: in 2019, investments were
1 Source: Own compilation based on Science Indicators 2021: Statistical Yearbook; World Bank. https://data-bank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.MKTP.CD&country=; National Bureau of Statistics of China. http://www.stats.gov.cn/; EPS database. http://olap.epsnet.com.cn/data-resource.html.
2 Methodology for official statistics of direct investments. https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/svs/meth-kom-di/. (In Russ.)
3 In particular, the Bank of Russia uses a combined method of data collection: for financial institutions, the quarterly survey is total, while for non-financial institutions, it is selective.
4 National Bureau of Statistics of China. https://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01&zb=A0N0L&sj=2021.
mainly aimed at IT services and software, in 2020 - at 70 large non-energy projects, including those in the electronics industry and chemical production [Tszou, 2021].
Direct investments from the RF into the PRC can be considered unstable and relatively insignificant. Over the past 15 years, this indicator's values have ranged between 2 million and 63 million US dollars, which is several times less than the amount of direct investment from China to Russia (which, by the PRC's standards, are not categorised as large-scale ones, since in the total volume of direct investments by countries they account for only 0.4 %1).
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Investments:
— From Russia to China — From China to Russia (Rosstat data) — From China to Russia (PRC data)
Fig. 6. Direct mutual investments between Russia and China, 2006-20212
To assess mutual trade from the perspective of science and technology cooperation between both countries, data from the Federal Customs Service on exports and imports of key types of high-tech products of the RF and the PRC were examined. Due to the lack of information on the turnover of specific high-tech products, we analysed the available data by selecting those groups of goods that, according to the Russian classification, are associated with the Russian Classification of Economic Activities (OKVED) of high-tech industries (Figure 7): 'Pharmaceutical products' (Code 30 according to Foreign Economic Activity Commodity Nomenclature (TN VED), 'Electrical machines and equipment, their parts; sound recording and reproducing devices, equipment for recording and reproducing television images and sound, their parts and accessories' (Code 85), 'Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments and equipment; their parts and accessories' (Code 90).
1 2020 Statistical Bulletin of China's Outbound Direct Investment. http://russian.mofcom.gov.cn/; China Statistical Yearbook. http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2021/indexeh.htm.
2 Source: Own compilation based on Statistical Bulletin of Foreign Direct Investment of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (http://russian.mofcom.gov.cn/) and the Central Bank of the RF (https:// www.cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/svs/).
2019
2020
2021
0.001 0.09
0.001
0.003
0.27
0.26
Trade turnover, billion US dollars
2019
2020
2021
5.12
4.27
4.75
2019 "
97.66
17.87
2020 63'T7
2021
212.01
54.42
Weight of trade turnover, million kg
a) Pharmaceutical products (Code 30)
Cost of 1 kg in commodity exchange, US dollars
2019
2020
0.49
0.24
0.22
14.37
15.04
19.28
2021
Trade turnover, billion US dollars
2019
2020
1.36
0.82
869.99
952.80
1.18
1 050.84
2021
Weight of trade turnover, million kg
2019
2020
362.00
16.52
294.55
15.78
181.79
18.35
2021
Cost of 1 kg in commodity exchange, US dollars
b) Electrical machines and equipment, their parts; sound recording and reproducing devices, ... (Code 85)
2019
2020
2021
1.23
1.78
1.73
Trade turnover, billion US dollars
2019
2020
2021
59.24
65.39
73.26
Weight of trade turnover, million kg
2019
20.75
220.97
2020
360.59
2021
27.29
f
368.77
23.56
Cost of 1 kg in commodity exchange, US dollars
Export ■ Import
c) Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, ... or surgical instruments, ... (Code 95) Fig. 7. Russia-China trade turnover by categories of goods, 2019-20211
As shown in Figure 7, imports from the PRC prevail in all types of high-tech products under consideration, both in value and weight terms. In terms of cost of 1 kg of the transferred products (far right figure), the RF exports much smaller volumes (by weight), but more expensive goods. Perhaps this is due to the fact that customs
1 Source: Own compilation based on data from the Federal Customs Service of the RF (https://customs.gov.ru) and the PRC (http://english.customs.gov.cn/).
statistics are based on data disclosed in customs declarations, which means that they can be deliberately marked down.
All the results of the analysis of Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology were supplemented with qualitative data (expert opinions obtained as part of a scientific literature review on the topic under discussion) and systematised in the form of a SWOT matrix (Table 3). In the matrix, we attempted to correlate the strengths of the two states in the studied area with the weaknesses that can be overcome due to the corresponding advantages (in particular, through sharing experiences).
As follows from Table 3, the main opportunities for cooperation between the two countries are associated with the construction of an innovative ecosystem that encourages full-fledged collaboration in the selection of projects, resource docking, market promotion, and industrial transformation. According to researchers, such an ecosystem will allow one to jointly create and develop valuation and consulting agencies [Li, 2021], providers of scientific and technical information, legal intermediaries in the field of intellectual property [Andriyanova, Andriyanova, Kornienko, 2019], as well as provide systematic professional services for technological innovation. Among the most promising domains are innovative technologies focused on the implementation of aerospace projects, including new materials and information and communication solutions [Danilin, 2020]1.
Table 3. SWOT analysis of Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology
Strengths of the participating countries Weaknesses of the participating countries
1. Growing demand for the services of research companies in the field of natural and engineering sciences in the RF. 2. Growing numbers of researchers in the field of natural and engineering sciences in the PRC. 3. China's huge and diversified market demand, successful R&D commercialisation experience, an advanced industrial system. 4. Russia has advantages in military technologies, aerospace technologies, nuclear industry technologies. 5. China's intense patent and publication activity. 6. China's extensive financial opportunities. 7. High rates of the PRC's exports and imports of advanced technologies. 1. Decreasing numbers of researchers in the field of natural and engineering sciences in the RF. 2. Weak commercialisation of technological innovations in the RF, low rate of technology transfer in the RF. 3. Minor exports of Russian high-tech civilian products. 4. Low patent and publication activity in the RF. 5. Low share of R&D expenditures in GDP of the RF, predominance of state participation in these expenditures. 6. Low level of self-sufficiency in key parts, components and high-tech equipment in industry of both countries. 7. China's inability to solve industrial problems on its own due to insufficient investment in basic research. 8. Low level of digitalisation of the Russian industry.
1 The Russia-China Dialogue: The 2020 Model: A report no. 58/2020. 254 p. https://russiancouncil.ru/papers/ Russia-China-2020-Report58.pdf. (In Russ.)
Table 3 (concluded)
Strengths of the participating countries Weaknesses of the participating countries
8. Russia's developed scientific-fundamental school. 9. China has a comparative advantage in information and communication technology, satellite navigation technology, UAV technology and supercomputing 9. Lack of highly qualified foreign language experts, lack of information about markets and opportunities in both countries
Opportunities for cooperation Threats to cooperation
1. Creation of joint scientific funds and funds for technological development, of joint technology parks. 2. Establishment of joint industry-specific research institutes, scientific schools, R&D commercialisation centres, corporate ecosystems. 3. Launch of single digital platforms for aggregating data necessary for enterprises to successfully commercialise R&D and patent inventions. 4. Personnel exchange programmes. 5. Joint design of new technologies and co-production of high-tech products. 6. Using the opportunities of the international multilateral BRICS STI Framework Programme 1. Previously neutral countries joining the sanction policy. 2. The PRC's ban on high-tech exports. 3. Developed countries strengthening restrictions on high-tech exports. 4. Differences in corporate culture and incompatibility of national mentalities of China and Russia. 5. A new global economic crisis unfolding. 6. Refusal by the USA of the plans to confront the PRC and the subsequent rapprochement of these countries. 7. The policy of double standards on the part of both countries. 8. Intellectual property theft, fraud, corruption. 9. Small-scale, shallow and unsystematic relationships. 10. Poor protection of national interests
Source: Own compilation based on [Feng, 2014; Denisov, Sun, Liu, 2018; Rudenko, 2018; Voronova, 2019; Davydov, 2020; Lapochkina et al., 2020; Gao, 2021; Li, Li, 2021; Li, 2021; Isaev, 2021; Lavrikova, Andreeva, Ratner, 2021; Kozyrskaya, Yan, 2021; Popova, 2021].
It is worth noting that while Chinese publications address Sino-Russian cooperation in science and innovation demonstrating positive development trends [Feng, 2021; Li, Li, 2021], the Russian researchers express some doubts that such cooperation can produce sufficient economic benefits for both countries [Makarova, 2016; Lepa, 2017; Malkina, Ovchinnikov, Gorbunova, 2017]. The general public shares a similar view on the prospective joint development of Russia and China in science and technology. For example, according to the opinion poll "Public opinion about China and Russia - 2021"1 conducted by the China Media Corporation, the vast majority of respondents believe that over the past years, the Sino-Russian relations have become closer, and the degree of good-neighbourly ties has continuously deepened. Over 91 % of respondents from Russia and more than 98 % of respondents from
1 Results of the opinion poll "Public opinion about China and Russia - 2021" CGTN. https://russian.cgtn. com/n/BfJIA-EA-HEA/EIedEA/index.html. (In Russ.)
China said that they expect the Sino-Russian interaction to evolve. However, when answering the question of whether it is worth further strengthening comprehensive strategic cooperation, the Russians were more cautious: only 72.6 % of respondents answered in the affirmative, while among the Chinese citizens surveyed this value amounted to 87 %.
Among the key threats to the development of the two nations in science and technology are export sanctions from developed countries resulting in the economic slowdown in the PRC and the RF. We paid special attention to this threat as the most serious one by comparing the scale and range of the relevant restrictions.
Threats of high-tech export restrictions
Technological innovations as the basis for strengthening the competitiveness of national economies have now become a strategic factor in building up advantages in the geopolitical sphere. According to Russian scientists, the negative impact of the sanctions imposed until 2022 by the leading countries of Europe, Asia, and the United States on Russia and China turned out to be stronger than the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [Sharaldaev, Sharaldaeva, Badmaev, 2021]. By contrast, Popo-va [2021] highlights the positive influence of sanctions, namely, the reorientation of the economy from the production of raw materials to the production of goods with a high level of value added. However, the real consequences of the sanction pressure have yet to be assessed. Table 4 and Table 5 present data on the types of high-tech products currently banned from being supplied to the Russia and China.
Table 4. Export restrictions on high-tech products in relation to Russia
Restrictions
Types of products USA Canada EU Japan South Korea
Semiconductors and components + + + +
Electronic devices and components (including microprocessors) + + + + +
Computers + + + + +
Software + +
C/5 Controllers, lasers, sensors + + + +
Optical fibre and material for its manufacture + +
i-l Ol Oil refining equipment + +
Navigation equipment + + + + +
Telecommunication equipment + + + + +
Optical materials +
Information security (hardware and software) + +
Cameras and optics + +
Table 4 (concluded)
Types of products Restrictions
USA Canada EU Japan South Korea
Products Aviation and shipping technologies (engines, measuring equipment) + + + + +
Cryptographic equipment +
Equipment for the production of electronic parts, components and materials + +
Vessels, underwater surveillance equipment and components for them +
Industries (OKVED) Manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products (26), including: + + + + +
- semiconductors and microprocessors (26.11) + + + + +
- computers (26.20) + + + + +
- communication equipment (26.30) +
- navigation equipment (26.5) + +
- optical instruments (26.7) +
Production of fibre optic cables (27.31) +
Manufacture of engines and turbines, except for aircraft, automobile and motorcycle engines (28.11), Manufacture of other general-purpose machinery and equipment not included in other groups (including oil refining equipment) (28.29) +
Manufacture of aircrafts, including spacecrafts, and related equipment (30.30) (except for supplies to civil aviation) + + +
Marine and aerospace equipment (30.40) +
Source: Own compilation based on U.S. Department of Commerce. https://www.commerce.gov/ news/press-releases/2022/02/commerce-implements-sweeping-restrictions-exports-russia-response; Government of Canada. https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-rela-tions_internationales/sanctions/goods_gechnologies-marchandises_technologies.aspx?lang=eng; European Commission. https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/index.cfm?id=2371; https://ec.europa.eu/ info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/stronger-europe-world/eu-solidarity-ukraine/eu-sanctions-against-russia-following-invasion-ukraine_en; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan). https://www. meti.go.jp/press/2021/03/20220311002/20220311002.html.
Notes: Data on the bans that came into force in 2014-2022 are provided. + marks the countries that banned the export of the relevant products.
Russia faced export sanctions in 2014, somewhat earlier than China. Export controls in relation to the latter was launched by the USA in August 2018, when the Department of Commerce was authorised by the law to regulate the export, re-export or transfer of a total of 47 domestic technologies, including artificial intelligence,
synthetic biology, quantum computing, and quantum sensing. A list of high-tech products banned by the United States from exporting to China are given in Table 5.
Table 5. Export restrictions on high-tech products imposed by the USA in relation to China
Types of products Restrictions
Semiconductors and components +
Electronic devices and components (including microprocessors) +
Computers +
Software
Controllers, lasers, sensors +
Optical fibre and material for its manufacture
Oil refining equipment
u Navigation equipment +
O 0 i-l 01 Telecommunication equipment +
Optical materials
Information security (hardware and software)
Cameras and optics +
Aviation and shipping technologies (engines, measuring equipment) +
Cryptographic equipment
Equipment for the production of electronic parts, components and materials +
Vessels, underwater surveillance equipment and components for them +
Aviation and astronautics +
Semiconductors and microprocessors +
Computers +
Communication equipment +
« (U • >—1 i-l Navigation equipment +
« Optical instruments +
Ö M Production of fibre optic cables
Manufacture of engines and turbines, except for aircraft, automobile and motorcycle engines +
Manufacture of aircrafts, including spacecrafts, and related equipment +
Marine and aerospace equipment +
Source: Own compilation based on the list of Chinese enterprises in the real sector of the economy that fell under US sanctions in 2018-2022 (Zhihu. https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p7486630848). Note: + marks the types of products that have fallen under the ban.
As seen from Tables 4 and 5, microelectronics and computers are banned from exporting to both countries. And this is no coincidence. These types of high-tech products are at the core of digital transformation since they enable optimisation and
interoperability of electronic devices. Moreover, the economic miracles of some Asian countries are associated with this particular industry.
In the short term, the problem of sanctions in the industries under review can be partially solved through mutually beneficial cooperation between China and Russia: the former has strong advantages in microelectronics technologies, while the latter possesses the resources required for production (including neon and helium, which are scarce in the world). In addition, China is experienced in import substitution in this industry as it successfully implements a relevant programme1, which implies the production of a full range of necessary equipment. However, the PRC's recent decision to ban the supply of its own processors2 to the RF is alarming. Notwithstanding that analysts believe this ban is of a rather formal nature, the very fact of its appearance confirms the presence of the threat identified as part of the SWOT analysis.
Conclusion
The study allows us to arrive at the following conclusions:
- there is a potential for Sino-Russian cooperation in science and technology [Troshin, Xu, 2020; Syryamkin, Yan, Vaganova, 2011], but the countries' joint development in these areas has not yet occurred. On the one hand, this is partly due to the PRC's focus on collaboration with the United States and Western Europe that has developed in previous years. On the other, this due to the fact that the PRC is investing in the areas meeting its strategic interests within the framework of the Silk Road economic belt that in most cases are not related to Russia's high-tech industries;
- Russia's high-tech export and import strategy is more conservative than the one of China, which in past decades has actively followed the path of imitating innovation, thereby reaching a significant innovative potential. As a result, Russia and China differ in a number of indicators to the levels that are sometimes incomparable;
- sanctions pressure is more considerable and lasts longer in relation to Russia. The PRC, despite the restrictions imposed by the United States, retains significant financial strength and developed production capacity, as well as effective international ties. In this situation, Russia's turn to the East has weaker positions that can turn it into a kind of supplier of resources (talents, energy resources, scientific developments) for a strong neighbour.
It is still expedient for Russia to develop cooperation with China in science and technology, however, we cannot but agree with a number of researchers that one should not expect a boom in joint scientific and technological projects, since relations
1 How the global microcircuit market is developing and what to expect now in Russia. RBC News. https://trends. rbc.ru/trends/industry/626bd1459a7947f2a2d25227. (In Russ.)
2 China has banned the supply of its own processors to Russia, media reports. https://ria.ru/20221213/protses-sor-1838246395.html. RIA News Agency. (In Russ.)
in this area are developing step by step, taking into account a realistic assessment of intermediate results, including an assessment of economic benefits [Permyakova, 2009; Kostyunina, 2016; Davydov, 2020; Isaev, 2021].
Importantly that the basis for mutually beneficial cooperation between Russia and China has been laid and can be clearly identified. Next, all the bottlenecks in each area of interaction should be thoroughly studied and strategies for the development of scientific and technical relations between the two countries formulated, which will make it possible to realise all the opportunities and benefits, while neutralising external threats.
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Information about the authors
Jun Li, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Sr. Lecturer. University of Science and Technology Liaoning, Anshan, China. E-mail: vadimli521@yandex.ru
Irina S. Pylaeva, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), business consultant. Washington, USA. E-mail: iren-pylaeva74@gmail.com
Maria V. Podshivalova, Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Associate Prof., Prof. of Economics and Finance Dept. South Ural State University, Chelyabisnk, Russia. E-mail: podshivalovamv@susu. ru
© Li J., Pylaeva I. S., Podshivalova M. V., 2023
