Risk management in the system of strategy of the security environment: public-management aspect Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

UDC : 35:172.4

https://doi.org/10.32689/2617-2224-2020-3(23)-92-105

Dmytruk Sergey Fedorovych,

Postgraduate Student, Department of Public Administration, Interregional Academy of Personnel Management, 03039 Kyiv, Str. Frometivska, 2, tel .: 044 503 63 29, e-mail: [email protected], https// or-cid.org / 0000-0002-0574-8208

Дмитрук Сергш Федорович,

асшрант, кафедра публгчного адмШ-стрування, Мгжрегюнальна Академгя управлтня персоналом, 03039, м. Кигв, вул. Фрометгвська, 2, тел.: 044 503 63 29, e-mail: [email protected], https// orcid.org/0000-0002-0574-8208

Дмитрук Сергей Федорович,

аспирант, кафедра публичного администрирования, Межрегиональная Академия управления персоналом, 03039, г. Киев, ул. Фрометовская, 2, тел.: 044 503 63 29 e-mail: [email protected], https// orcid. org / 0000-0002-0574-8208

RiSK MANAGEMENT iN THE SYSTEM OF STRATEGY OF THE SECURiTY ENViRONMENT: PUBLiC-MANAGEMENT ASPEcT

Abstract. The National Security Strategy of Ukraine and the Concept of Development of the Security and Defense Sector of Ukraine envisage the need to find scientific approaches to the strategy of environmental security in order to minimize risks and counter national security threats. Particular attention needs to be paid to the problem of the unpredictability of the security environment, which is associated with the asymmetry of threats and actions. Methods and models developed for describing the future security of the environment, shaping their vision and models of the security of the state in which Ukraine will develop in the Environmental Security Strategy will depend on the development of further political and strategic documents (state-management decisions), in which the purpose, goals will be declared and commitments.

To do this, it is necessary to develop appropriate effective tools in the form of a mechanism for developing effective strategies and procedures for their implementation, as well as requirements for working teams and a coordination (inte-

grated) situational center to solve the problems of forecasting the future security environment of Ukraine. This will improve the basics of the public administration and administration knowledge industry.

The article elaborates an improved model of public administration in the security and defense sector of Ukraine, which is based on the mechanisms and principles proposed above to develop and implement an effective public administration strategy in the field of national security of Ukraine. Namely: the scheme of passing information flows through the stages of risk management and threat prevention and the algorithm of functioning of the information system is presented. In addition, the author presents a structural and functional scheme of decision-making on risk management in the information system strategicization of the security of the environment of Ukraine and an improved overall model of public administration in the security and defense sector of Ukraine. Based on the above study, the author proposed to create in the system of the apparatus of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine — the United Situation Center.

Practical recommendations are offered to help improve and improve the efficiency of forecasting the security environment.

Keywords: risk management procedure, security environment, Joint Situation Center environment security strategying, national security, military security.

УПРАВЛ1ННЯ РИЗИКАМИ В СИСТЕМ1 СТРАТЕГУВАННЯ БЕЗПЕКОВОГО СЕРЕДОВИЩА: ДЕРЖАВНО-УПРАВЛ1НСЬКИЙ

АСПЕКТ

Анотащя. Стратепя нацюнально! безпеки Украши та Концепщя роз-витку сектору безпеки i оборони Украши передбачае необхщшсть пошуку наукових пiдходiв до стратегування безпекового середовища задля мiнiмiза-ци ризиюв та протидп загрозам нащональнш безпещ. Особливо! уваги по-требуе проблема непередбачуваносп безпекового середовища, яка пов'язана з асиметрiею загроз i дш. Розроблено методики та моделi опису майбутньо-го безпекового середовища, формування ïx бачення та моделi того безпекового стану, в якому буде розвиватись Украша в стратегуванш безпекового середовища, залежатиме вщ розроблення подальших пол^ичних та страте-пчних докуменпв (державно-управлшських ршень), в яких буде задекла-ровано мета, цш та зобов'язання.

Для цього необхщно розробити вщповщний дiевий шструментарш у виглядi мехашзму з розроблення ефективних стратегш та процедур здшс-нення ïx, а також вимог до робочих команд i координацшного (об'еднаного) ситуацшного центру для виршення завдань прогнозування майбутнього безпекового середовища Украши. Це надасть можливють удосконалити засади галузi знань "Публiчне управлшня та адмшютрування".

Розроблено удосконалену модель державного управлшня у секторi безпеки i оборони Украши, яка Грунтуеться на запропонованих вище мехашз-мах i принципах розробки та здшснення ефективно! стратеги державного

управлшня у сферi нацiональноí безпеки Украши, а саме: представлено схему проходження iнформацiйних потокiв за етапами управлшня ризиками та запобтанню загроз i алгоритм функцiонування iнформацiйноí системи стратегування безпекового середовища Украíни. Крiм того, представлено структурно-функцiональну схему прийняття ршень з управлiння ризиками в шформацшнш системi стратегування безпекового середовища Украши та вдосконалено загальну модель державного управлшня у секторi безпеки i оборони Украши. Виходячи з проведеного дослщження, запропоновано створити в системi Апарату Ради нацюнально'1' безпеки i оборони Украши — Об'еднаний ситуацiйний центр.

Запропоновано практичш рекомендацií, що сприятимуть удосконаленню та шдвищенню ефективностi стратегування безпекового середовища.

Ключовi слова: процедура управлiння ризиками, безпекове середовище, Об'еднаний ситуацiйний центр стратегування безпекового середовища, на-цюнальна безпека, военна безпека.

УПРАВЛЕНИЕ РИСКАМИ В СИСТЕМЕ СТРАТЕГИРОВАНИЯ СРЕДЫ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ: ГОСУДАРСТВЕННО-УПРАВЛЕНЧЕСКИЙ АСПЕКТ

Аннотация. Стратегия национальной безопасности Украины и Концепция развития сектора безопасности и обороны Украины предусматривает необходимость поиска научных подходов к стратегированию среды безопасности для минимизации рисков и противодействия угрозам национальной безопасности. Особого внимания требует проблема непредсказуемости среды безопасности, которая связана с асимметрией угроз и действий. Разработанные методики и модели описания будущего безопасности среды, формирования их видения и модели того безопасного состояния, в котором будет развиваться Украина в стратегировании безопасной среды, будет зависеть от разработки дальнейших политических и стратегических документов (государственно-управленческих решений), в которых будет задекларировано цель, цели и обязательства.

Для этого необходимо разработать соответствующий действенный инструментарий в виде механизма по разработке эффективных стратегий и процедур осуществления их, а также требований к рабочим команд и координационного (объединенного) ситуационного центра для решения задач прогнозирования будущего среды безопасности Украины. Это позволит усовершенствовать основы отрасли знаний "Публичное управление и адми-нистрование".

Разработана усовершенствованная модель государственного управления в секторе безопасности и обороны Украины, которая основывается на предложенных выше механизмах и принципах разработки и осуществления эффективной стратегии государственного управления в сфере национальной безопасности Украины, а именно: представлена схема прохождения информационных потоков по этапам управления рисками и предотвращения

угроз и алгоритм функционирования информационной системы стратеги-рования безопасности среды Украины. Кроме того, представлена структурно-функциональная схема принятия решений по управлению рисками в информационной системе стратегирование безопасности среды Украины и усовершенствованная общая модель государственного управления в секторе безопасности и обороны Украины. Исходя из проведенного исследования, предложено создать в системе Аппарата Совета национальной безопасности и обороны Украины — Объединенный ситуационный центр.

Предложены практические рекомендации, способствующие совершенствованию и повышению эффективности прогнозирования среды безопасности.

Ключевые слова: процедура управления рисками, среда безопасности, Объединенный ситуационный центр стратегирования безопасности среды, национальная безопасность, военная безопасность.

Formulation of the problem. The

analysis of the views of the leading experts on the future security environment of Ukraine in the conditions of globalization of V. Hurkovsky [1], V. Kuybida [2], M. Orel [3], G. Po-cheptsov [4], H. Sytnik [5] allows to make the conclusion that the security environment is now characterized by diversity, complexity, transience and unpredictability. Particular attention needs to be paid to the unpredictability of the security environment, which is related to the asymmetry of threats and actions. Methods and models for the description of the future security environment, the formation of their vision and the model of the security state in which Ukraine will develop in the security environment strategy will depend on the development of further political and strategic documents (state-government decisions), which will state the purpose, goals and objectives, obligations. To do this, appropriate action tools should be developed in the form of a mechanism for develo-

ping effective strategies and procedures for implementing them, as well as requirements for working teams and a coordination (joint) situation center to address the challenges of forecasting Ukraine's future security environment.

Analysis of the recent research and publications. Modern scientists have carried out a number of basic researches, among which the tasks were first of all to identify the laws and tendencies of formation and development of the national security system, its constituent functions, tasks; functioning evaluation, etc.

The interest of domestic scientists in certain aspects of security environment strategy emphasizes the social importance of these aspects. At the same time the research on these issues generally seems to be insufficient. The analysis of the development of the security situation in Ukraine shows that a set of measures is needed that would allow not only to identify and neutralize the threats to the national security in a timely manner, but would create

conditions for efficient and dynamic development of the domestic economy. It is about ensuring the effectiveness of the components of the political and legal mechanisms of the national security, which integrate all the elements of the system in order to implement a strategy of such security as a concept defining one of the directions of the state security policy, defense. Particularly valuable for the study were the works of such scientists as: V. D. Ba-kumenko [6], V. I. Hurkovsky [7,11], V. Kovbasyuk [8], N. R. Nyzhnyk [9], and others.

The purpose of the article is to justify on the basis of the modern scientific approaches the formation of a new organizational structure — the Joint Situation Center, the formation of a new improved general model of the public administration in the security and defense sector of Ukraine, the presentation of a structural and functional decision-making scheme for risk management in the information system of security environment strategic planning of Ukraine.

Presentation of the main material. In the public administration the risks include disruptions in IT services, delays, unforeseen costs, excess commitments, and political, diplomatic, economic, etc. "failures". These are the areas in which issues of power and knowledge are most acute. The state very often seeks to show that it fully controls the internal processes, although in reality its power is substantially limited. The heads of the ministries and departments may face obstruction or follow erroneous advice. Some government officials or politicians may try to hide their mistakes or minimize the problems.

In practice, the last resort in terms of risk liability remains to the state (for example, in the event of the bankruptcy of a private contractor), as most attempts at risk transfer fail. As a rule, such transfer is carried out in transparent, predictable and not long-term investment projects. The expected result is indisputable and not long-lasting in the field of services. In addition, if the transfer of financial risks to a third party does not cause complications, then the transfer of reputational costs is much more difficult. After all, the society has every reason to expect that the state does take responsibility for the services provided on its behalf.

The state is obliged to overcome risks at three levels: strategic, programmatic and operational. The strategic level is the political agreement with the citizens and the consistency of the program of action of the government as a whole. Critical decisions taken at this level include the formulation of strategic goals, cost allocation and policy changes in case of success or failure.

At the programmatic level the government deals with the detailed directions of the public policy, what plans will be implemented and by whom. The major risks include large cost overruns, insufficient attention to the operating environment, and resistance from powerful influencers.

The operational (project) level decisions are closely related to technical issues, resource management, schedules, service providers, partners, and infrastructure. Most often, at this level, one has to deal with the problem of lack of proper attention to the situational planning and development of backup

plans, with excessive optimism about the timing of projects, etc.

At each of the three levels the state has a choice: bring the case to a close or try to streamline the approach taken to the risks. Probably the most important question for any state is: "Who makes the risk decisions?", "Are the executants and responsible persons properly selected or not?"

Undoubtedly, government officials must have a deep understanding of the real interconnections and mechanisms — whether it is a country's military security, the competence of a policy-making agency, or the normalization of the computer systems. At the same time, the most important decisions in the state are made in the absence of the society, really understanding their possible actions and future consequences.

The place in the hierarchy and legal status are the factors that are always on top of direct experience. Therefore, one should not be surprised at the huge number of emergencies and catastrophes in many countries around the world. Not surprisingly, in many cases, the councils of society have even worse consequences than they were before.

Indeed, strategically, the state does not shy away from risks: it tries to take into account all the facts because it has systems for detecting and counteracting threats. However, the condition for maintaining the resilience of the system to risks is the ability of the state, along with society and business, to understand the existing risks. It should be based on the common experience of many people and institutions in the real world of coping failures and disaster relief. Borderline centralization, where the system relies primarily on formal

risk monitoring and analysis mechanisms, weakens its ability to respond to unexpected shocks in a timely and correct manner. The same can be said of infrastructure critical to the state and society. One of the most important lessons of the 21st century is that the most resilient are those systems and infrastructures that can be disaggregated.

In addition to performing their core functions, the institutions designed to deal with risks have urged the government officials of all levels to constantly consider the need for sustainability, as they have helped the central government to get a proper idea of what the country is expecting in the near future.

Based on the above study, it is proposed to create a new organizational structure for the Office of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine — Joint Situation Center.

Using a specific approach to solving the task of strategizing the future security environment and under the guidance of a specialist practitioner, it is necessary to involve carefully selected employees of different structures from within the government and from outside for the work at the Joint Situation Center. Give the employees the right to use the financial resources of several ministries, as well as compete with the non-governmental organizations operating in the field. Transfer the function of coordinating the activities of the existing intelligence and security agencies, which operate autonomously and often compete with each other.

The new version of the Law of Ukraine "On National Security of Ukraine" of 21.06.2018 № 2469-VIII (last amended on March 04, 2020) [10] defines and delimits the powers of the

state bodies in the fields of national security and defense, creates the basis for the integration of policies and procedures of the public authorities, other state bodies whose functions are related to national security and defense, security and defense forces, the system of command, control and coordination of the operations of security and defense forces is defined, a comprehensive national security and defense planning approach is being implemented, thus ensuring democratic civilian control over the security sector's bodies and entities.

In accordance with Articles 106 and 107 of the Constitution of Ukraine, the President of Ukraine exercises control over the security and defense sector both directly and through the National Security and Defense Council headed by him and, where necessary, by advisory, consultative and other auxiliary bodies and services.

The security and defense sector of Ukraine has four interrelated components: security force; defense forces; defense-industrial complex; citizens and civic associations voluntarily involved in the national security. The functions and powers of the components of the security and defense sector are determined by the legislation of Ukraine.

The security and defense sector includes: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Armed Forces of Ukraine, State Special Transport Service, Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, National Guard of Ukraine, National Police of Ukraine, State Border Service of Ukraine, State Migration Service of Ukraine, State Emergency Service of Ukraine, Security Service of Ukraine, External Intelligence Service of Ukraine, State Secu-

rity Service of Ukraine, State Service for Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine, Apparatus of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, the intelligence agencies of Ukraine, the central executive authority that provides for the formation and implementation of the state military-industrial policy.

However, notwithstanding the novelty and updating of the Law of Ukraine "On National Security of Ukraine", there is no current mechanism of the public administration in the field (sector) of Ukraine's security and defense.

The author proposes an improved model of the public administration in the security and defense sector of Ukraine, which is based on the above mechanisms and principles for the development and implementation of an effective public administration strategy in the field of national security of Ukraine, which is highlighted in Fig. 1-4. Namely:

1. The flow diagram of information flows by stages of risk management and threat prevention is presented in Fig. 1.

2. The algorithm of functioning of the information system of strategic planning of the security environment of Ukraine, Fig. 2.

3. Structural and functional scheme of decision-making on risk management in the information system of strategizing the security environment of Ukraine, Fig. 3.

4. Improved overall model of the public administration in the security and defense sector of Ukraine, Fig. 4.

Among other things, the tasks of the Joint Situation Center may be:

• a thorough analysis of the international indicators to compare the

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ПЛАНУВАННЯ

ЧДШСНЕННЯ УПРАВЛЯЮЧОГО ВПЛИВУ

1нформацшна

система стратегування безпекового середовища Украши

Система забезиечення иацюнальнсн безиеки Украши

Fig. 2. Algorithm of functioning of the information system of strategic planning of the security environment of ukraine

Fig. 3. Structural and functional scheme of decision-making on risk management in the information system of strategizing the security environment of ukraine

performance of the government of Ukraine and other countries, examples of lessons to be learned;

• analysis of the key policy areas to identify effective directions and areas in need of change (e.g., new defense-industrial policy);

• a thorough study of the conditions of functioning of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other security structures;

• preparation for future changes, including attempts to determine the expected moment of political actualization of certain issues.

In this way, the Joint Situation Center achieves the greatest success

when it is set with clear goals, when it fulfills functional obligations, and at lower levels viable integrated structures with strong cooperative traditions. Equally important to success is the alignment of key motivating activities — money, prestige, promotion and tasks.

The Joint Situation Center is more than just an administrative structure. Its activities are highly dependent on interaction. To understand its dynamics is by constantly improving the tools of analysis of the future security environment. At the same time, it is unlikely that in the future the go-

Fig. 4. improved overall model of the public administration in the security and defense sector of Ukraine

vemment will move to predominantly horizontal principles of organization instead of vertical ones. Even if this happens, the amount of interagency tasks will remain unchanged. Most likely, in the future, the government will be a combination of vertical hierarchies focused on the long-term tasks of the state and horizontal structures aimed at defining strategy and solving short-term issues.

As a result, this will mean a further evolution of the government, in particular in the direction of:

• more project-oriented activities, when temporary teams of employees of different departments are formed to solve certain tasks;

• increasing the level of interagency cooperation at the stage of implementation of a particular strategy with the involvement of practitioners;

• increasing the share of financial allocations related to the results of particular programs and the consistent allocation of funds between the ministries and agencies, depending on their return;

• transfer to departments some vertical governmental functions while reducing the number, but increasing the degree of integration of the staff of the central apparatus;

• automation, data digitization of access to services, that are mostly aimed at improving the needs of the citizens rather than for the convenience of suppliers;

• giving more importance to professional associations that go beyond limited fields of activity.

Conclusion. The proposed approach to risk management, based on the one proposed for the creation of

a new organizational structure at the Office of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine — Joint Situation Center, provided that it is implemented in the practice of the public administration, will contribute to improving the effectiveness of the security policy. Taking this approach into account, one of the promising areas for further research should be to develop practical recommendations for the public administration bodies in the field of national security of Ukraine to manage risks and threats to the national security.

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