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Section 3. Demography
Tojieva Zulhumor Nazarovna, DcS., associate professor, National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirza Ulugbek Faculty of Geography E-mail: [email protected] Sabirova Muazzam Shuhratbek qizi, Saipov Ulugbek Muratovich, researchers of the National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirzo Ulugbek. (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)
REPRODUCTION OF THE POPULATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN AND ITS TERRITORIAL DIVISIONS
Abstract: The article discusses the features of birth rates of the population in the Republic of Uzbekistan. The main purpose of the article is to consider tendencies of birth rate of the population and analyses a complex of indicators of fertility and reproductive behavior. A comparative analysis of the population's reproductive behavior was carried out using the system of demographic coefficients. An assessment of births contribution ofvarious sequences to indicators of total birth rate is carried out.
Keywords: fertility, reproductive behavior, total fertility rate, the order of birth.
Over the past 25 years, birth and death rates among the second and third is increasing steadily. For example, the share
of children born in families who were third-born in total births in children was 18.8 per cent in 1989, whereas last year it was 19.2 per cent. The proportion of children born in the fifth and subsequent years in the family declined from 15.3 to 2.1 per cent in 1989-2015. Of the 5240.0 thousand families in the republic, 25.4% of the total number of children, 23.9% of families with one child, 25.6% of children with two children, and 16.5% - have 3 children.
The periodic decline in the overall birth rate among the population has specific features at the provincial level. In 1991, the overall birth rate of population in the provinces was 29.0-42.5%o, and in 2017, it was 21.3-27.3%o. The overall birth rate in Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, Samarkand and Jizzakh provinces ranks first in the country in terms of birth rate over the years 1989-2017 above the national average. The difference between the largest and lowest birth rates [1; 3] was almost the same in 1989-2017. In the demographic transition, not only the employment of women in the country, but also the level of education, the dramatic change in the attitude towards the number of children born in the family began to emerge. For this reason, 14.3% of infants in recent years are women of 30-34 age group, 34.1% are women of 25-29 years, and
Uzbekistan population have led to a decrease in natural movement rates. Nevertheless, the population growth is rising every year due to the natural population growth. Because of the mechanical increase of the population, it has already become a negative factor for the country. Between the years 1950-1991, the population of Uzbekistan has been steadily developing, and from the 91st birth rate of babies has gradually dropped. Nowadays, it is mainly through the limitation of the number of children born in families to live in a culturally sound way, to seek a better life, and to create the necessary conditions for the present and future lives of children. In particular, the population of the republic was 723.4 thousand in 1991, and in 2017 it was 726.1 thousand, or 1.4 times more. The annual average birth rate was negative in 1991-1995, ie -1.3 percent, in 1995-2000,-4.90 percent, followed by 0.25 percent in 20002005 and 2.90 percent in 2005-2010 - changed to 2.50% in the year 2015. The total coefficient of births per thousand people was 34.5 in 1991, 22.8 in 2017 or the total birth rate in that period declined by 11.2%. This is due to the fact that the birth of the fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, or even tenth births of children in families belonging to the former Soviet regime was rising. On the contrary, the proportion of births born first,
Section 3. Demography
42.5% are women of 20-24 age group. Of these, 65.0 percent of firstborn babies belong to women aged 20-24. The share of the first child in the 40-44 age group is only 0.1%. In contrast to this age group, most third-born babies comprise 25-29 years (45.7%) and women aged 30-34 (34.4%). Naturally, as the age of women grows, the number of births is fourth, fifth, and even more. The majority of children born to 5 years of age or more in the family fall to women aged 30-39, accounting for only 4% of all births. In Uzbekistan, the overall birth rate decreased by 1.5 times in comparison with 1989, in urban areas - by 1.3 and in rural areas - by 1.9 times. At the same time, this ratio of births in total population dropped to 4.0 in 1989, having dropped to 2004, from 2005 to 2.4% in 2017. In the regions of the country, this indicator exceeded the national average by 1.0-1.3 times in the population of Surkhandarya, Kashkadarya, Jizzakh, Namangan, Andijan and Samarkand regions in 1996-2017.
There were no changes in the role and status of these regions during the transition period, but the number of children in a single reproductive age was lower. The cumulative birth rate in the rural population of the Republic is always relatively high, ie in 1989 the average fertility age was 5.4 children, and last year it was 2.6. In rural areas, a single reproductive age has a relatively high proportion of urban population, despite the rapid decline in birth rates. In the years under review, the population aggregate birth rate declined almost 2 times. For example, the urban population of the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Kashkadarya, Navoi, Namangan, Surkhandarya, Syrdarya and Ferghana regions and the city of Tashkent were 2.2-2.4, while in Bukhara, Jizzakh, Samarkand, Khorezm and Tashkent provinces it was smaller than the national average.
The coefficient of the population re-establishment was reduced to Rb = 2.049 in 1989 and 1.77 in 2017 to Rb = 1.147. Thus, by 2017, every 1.000 women in Samarkand region will receive 1204, Kashkadarya region - 1254, Khorezm region -1135, Surkhandarya region - 1225, Jizzakh province - 1135, In Tashkent region 1061, in Fergana region, 1131 girls have been resettled, indicating that the population in these areas is still being rebuilt. On the contrary, the population of Bukhara, Navoi and the city of Tashkent (with a coefficient of 1027-1085) is re-established. In rural areas, every 1.000 women leave their place of residence in 2437 in 1991 and 1257 in 2015, suggesting that the effective population is rebuilding. This will lead to a rapid decline in the population population, which increases the demographic potential and capacity. In rural areas, especially in Jizzakh, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, Andijan and Samarkand regions, this coefficient of 1299-1387 provides a high level of population growth in these regions. The ratio of Brutto's coefficient to total and
the decline in the rural population suggests that urban areas are rapidly approaching demographics.
In the urban population of the Republic, this coefficient was approached closer together, and even less than Rb < 1 than in 2001. In 1989, the urban brutto's coefficient Rb = = 1.483, in 1991 it was 1.527, Rb = 0.969 in 2005, 1.039 in 2017, ie again growing. This means that in the urban population of the republic there is a rebirth of ordinary population. At the same time, women in Bukhara, Surkhandarya, Kashkadarya, Syrdarya and Ferghana regions are very small. If the demographic situation in the urban areas continues to be similar, it is expected that soon the entire population will be rebuilt. However, the proportion of young people in the age structure of the population of the republic helps to increase the birth rate and decrease the number of population in the near future. From this point of view, the demographic potential of Uzbekistan can be considered high. Because of the high demographic potential, the population will continue to increase as a result of the age structure of the population. There is an absolute increase in birth rates, but there is no significant change in the gross and net.
The net ratios of the popula- tion represent the population of Rn > 1.0, which has been expanded to a size greater than 1.0. For example, in 1989, every 1.000 women left their 1867-year-old mate, and in 2017 this figure was 1092. In 2000-2006, the net population indices were smaller than < 1.0, in other words, the decline of the popula- tion was observed in this territorial structure, ie 961 girls out of every 1.000 women in 2000, 916 in 2005, And in 2017, 976 had lived up to their mother's age. In these years, the nettoy factor Rn < 1 indicates that the girls born during those years will not be replaced. RN = 1169 (2017) is the peak of population re-establishment in rural areas, and the overall population is high in re-establishing. However, the fact that these regions dropped to 1.8 times between 1989 and 2017 once again proves that the enlarged population has been completely transformed into a weakened species.
The decline in birth rates among the population is not significant due to the negative demographic factors (population sex, mortality rate, marriage, divorce rate). Today, there are no significant changes and differences in these demographic factors. The reason is that the sex composition of the population directly affecting birth is almost equal. The proportion of men and women in all age groups is proportionate. In addition, women aged 15-49 who include a childbearing age account for 27.6% of the total Uzbekistan population, more than half the total number of women, ie 55.4% (2017). It is estimated that the population of this age population in the country has grown by 169.6% in 1989-2017, and that 56% of the total population in the provinces is involved in the re-establishment of the population. In the period under
review, the growth rate of reproductive age population in Namangan, Surkhandarya, Khorezm and Kashkadarya regions was 188.8; 208.5; 198.8 and 205.2 percent, and the birth rate is high. In the case of a high birth rate, stable marriage relationships play an important role. Correlation between marriage and birth is therefore stronger than the spiral correlation coefficient, R = 0.77. The link between them has a strong, straight line link.
The results of the research once again show that the demographic process in Turkey has started not only the transition, but also the modernization process. For this process, the transition from traditional to modern type of population has become a turning point. This modern type of reestablishment of population in the current socio-economic and demographic development of the country is effective.
However, it is necessary to take into consideration the fact that this type of re-establishment of population after a certain period of time can create demographic danger in the country's socio-demographic situation.
Due to the decline in birth rates among the population, the decline in the number of young people, the low age of the elderly and the elderly, the working age population and the favorable demographic opportunities for the development of the country's economy. Consequently, the territorial characteristics of the current population of Uzbekistan show that «demographic opportunity doors» are now open. Therefore, it is crucial to set up and establish effective and efficient use of these demographic opportunities in the socioeconomic development of the republic and its regions, in the stabilization of the economy.
