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Section 8. Population Economics
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20534/EJEMS-17-2-76-81
Alijonov Utkirjon Makhamadalievich, (PhD Student)
Tashkent State University of Economy, Faculty of Economy,
Republic of Uzbekistan Lutfullo [email protected]
The evaluation of the effect of birth fertility to the labour market in the republic of Uzbekistan
Abstract: This article shows the distinctive process of fertility rate in the Republic of Uzbekistan. With the help of the statistic information provided by State Statistics Centre the number of the birth fertility dynamics including the coefficient of born and overall birth fertility rate was accounted by the author. The process of the birth in all the regions of Uzbekistan was evaluated. The effect of the process of birth fertility to forming the labor market was based on scientifically. In addition, the article suggests ways to decrease the number of population who is passive economically in Uzbekistan.
Keywords: population, birth rate, coefficient of birth, labor resource, labor market, economically passive population.
Introduction. The social demographic situation occurring in Uzbekistan is complex and crucial. On one hand, Uzbekistan is considered one ofthe countries whose demographic climate gives comfort in UNC and maintained the increase of the labor resource. On the other hand, Uzbekistan is the place where the labor supply is exceeded and since 1991 the employment has been in crucial situation. Despite the shortage of the job vacancies, on the one hand, the country economy is running out of professionals, as well as on the other hand, it knows the high responsibility of the non-engaged population.
Literature review. The several issues in recreation of the population was investigated scientifically by many foreign scientists such as Vishenevskiy, A., Valentey, D., Kvasheva, A., Baxmetova, G., Boyarskiy, A, Urlanis, B., Vasileva, E., Bedniy, M., Guzovatiy, Y, Arab-Ogli, E., Kildeshev, G [1]. In Uzbekistan Karakhanov, M., Mulla-jonov, I., Ata-Mirzaevm, B., Ubaydullaev, R., Burieva, M, Komilova, K and etc., have done research on the features of the development of the demographic population [2].
Ethical scientist M. K. Korakhonov has done some research on the history of the increase of the population of the Central Asia. A. B. Ata- Mirzaev's research on urbanization and his insights into problems of development of demography should be emphasized. The
research done by M, Burieva looked into studying the birth and family issues. Above mentioned research investigated particularly the process of recreating the population (birth and death) in Uzbekistan and the factors which effect it and the regional features until the transforming towards the market economy [3].
The result of the research is valuable to study the history of the demography of that area. Consequently, the changes occurred during the transforming to market economy period of Uzbekistan has not been studied thoroughly and it requires to do research on it.
Data Analysis. According to the State Statistic centre, 2015 showed the highest birth fertility in the republic of Uzbekistan (Table 1).
The analysis of the information above shows that from 1991-2015 the birth fertility grew by 1,4 percent. This upward trend is not true for all regions of Uzbekistan. For example, during that period Surkhandarya (11,3%), Kashkadarya (10,6%), and Andijan (9,4%) cited highest trends. However, the birth fertility showed downward trends in the Republic of Karakalpakstan (13,4%), Sirdarya (12,9%), Navoi (12,6%), Tashkent region (9,2%) and Bukhara (3,3%). Dividing the birth fertility period to (1991-2000 and 2005-2015) shows that it has not been stable all the time. Particularly from 1991-2000 in
all regions of the republic the birth fertility declined significantly. Taking the whole republic, the birth fertility declined to 27, 1%, in regional case Navoi showed 33,9, Tashkent region 32,3, Fergana - 31,7, Namangan - 31,5, Andijan - 31.0 percent reduction in birth fertility. In the
next period (2005-2015) the fertility trend increased constantly. In republic case it increased by 36,7 and in regional trend the highest fertility was experienced in the following regions; Surkandarya (54%), Kashkadarya (47,3%), Namangan (46,5%), Andijan (46,4%).
Table 1. - Change of the birth in Republic of Uzbekistan
Territories Years Changes in1991-2015 (+, -)
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Republic of Uzbekistan 723420 677999 527580 533530 634810 734141 101,4
For instance:
Republic of Karakalpakistan 47732 36039 36408 32456 37942 41345 86,6
Andijan 63589 62262 43897 47522 59953 69562 109,4
Bukhara 40709 36227 28618 30119 34597 39352 96,7
Jizzakh 31277 30100 24049 24157 25942 31887 101,9
Kashkadaryo 70988 70511 57681 53317 63861 78543 110,6
Navoi 23165 19880 15305 16230 18409 20259 87,4
Namangan 59487 58642 40772 42309 50799 61980 104,2
Samarqand 84143 82287 61266 63147 75213 88649 105,3
Surkhandaryo 57841 58389 44834 41847 51103 64424 111,3
Sirdaryo 20503 17122 14315 14365 16260 17862 87,1
Tashkent 64597 57254 43820 46335 54830 58692 90,8
Fergana 77889 76346 53168 56701 70622 79241 101,7
Khorezm 38997 35439 32114 31362 35965 39543 101,4
Tashkent city 42503 37501 31333 33663 39314 42802 100,7
Source: Demographic Yearbook of Uzbekistan 1991-2002, Statistical Yearbook 2005, Population of Uzbekistan 2014, Uzbekistan Demographic Yearbook, Social development and living standards in Uzbekistan, The social development and the living standards of the population
Such reduction was seen in all part of the country. In particularly, Samarkand and Kashkadarya which experienced the highest birth fertility in 1991 declined twice. The criteria for estimating the total coefficient of the birth fertility of the world was established.
The changes occurring in the trend of the birth are including some particular areas over the time. In our opinion, it shows that it is possible to differentiate the demographic surge. For instance, the drop in the coefficient of the population birth, initially, starts in some regions and it slowly spreads to other parts of the country and it takes much more time until it reaches to a particular part of the area. Particularly, the natural increase on the population and the drop in the coefficient of the birth in Uzbekistan started firstly in Tashkent and Tashkent region, it slowly reached to Navoi, Sirdarya and Fergana. After that this situation was seen in Bukhara, Jizzakh, Namangan, Samarkand and Andijan. Finally, after some considerable amount of time, it "ended" in
Surkhandarya and Kashkadarya. The data provided in the table also proves it.
Statistic information states that the country experienced the highest birth fertility among 20-29 age group women. Precisely, in 1991 child bearing in this group women cited 65.1% and in 2015 it reached to 71.7% which is an increase by 6.6%. If we estimate the demographic condition of Uzbekistan according to birth ratio, the birth ration was high in 1991 and 1995, and in the rest years it is accounted as average. The birth is carried out by mostly the at reproductive age group women.
Data analysis shows that the women who had lower birth giving at certain age showed a significant rise. For example, in 2015 the 20-24year old women contained 39,1% increased to 31,8%, 25-29 year old women which contained 32,6% of total population grew to71,0%. The unfortunate trend was given by 40-44 year old women whose fertility rate rose to 2,4 and among45-49 year olds to just 3,7 times. During the process of urbanizing and industrializing the
society, the role of offspring in the family is much altered, and the need to have children has been slowly looked over. This has been justified due to the following reasons [4].
Firstly, due to the development ofpension system, elderly people do not have a need for their children's caring.
Secondly, the economic role of a child has been changed. During the feudal system a child was considered the one who helped in the agriculture and household. During the capitalism period, they were considered as hired workers. However due to nowadays the highly developed industry and science technology time and the high demand to the professionalism and information made the need for child labor much less. Law, which forbids the child labor was adopted.
Thirdly, Children became consumers from producers, and this led to the increase of the family budget ex-
penses to bring up and care children, and this caused to lowering the willingness to give a birth and birth fertility.
The development of the industry and manufacture caused more engagement of women to labor work outside of their household and this led to have more freedom from giving birth at some point. In addition educational level influenced to have a recreation, as well. The time spent on getting general and professional education led to the growth of the marriage age. Mostly marriage age is delayed until gaining financial independence. The marriage age affects the fertility rate features. The lowest limit of the marriage age is usually considered to be ready physically, yet in many countries the social achievements (graduation of higher institutions, having a proper job, stable income, having opportunities and etc) indicate the marriage age.
Figure 1. According to statistic information the dynamics of total fertility rate was done
Source: The figure was done based on the information provided by the Uzbekistan State Statistics Centre by the author
The increase of the total fertility rate in the country is due to the increase of the birth of the first and second child in the family. The effect of the marriage to the total fertility rate is as following:
Because of the variety degree of the birth between male and female in some years the number of the same type generation is not appropriate to each other. In this case, it is difficult to identify the number of the married couple who are at the same age, because the age difference between the married man and women is average 5 years. Therefore, it is possible to identify the sexual ratio of female and male as well as the difference considering the average age of them into first marriage.
Secondly, the intensive marriage can also effect to the total sum of the fertility measurement, because most of
the children are born only after marriage. However, the unmarried couples, especially if the women who are at the age of giving birth increase and the increase of the age which is appropriate for the first marriage and delaying the marriage cause the drop of the total fertility rate.
Thirdly, the boost in the number of divorce rate, the age difference between wife and husband and long- lasting marriage also effect significantly to the birth fertility. This group of factors mark the possibility of a second marriage. However, this is much lower in terms of women comparing to those of men as they get older.
In addition to the factors related to marriage it is worth stating one more factor which is remaining widow, the reason behind it, firstly, due to the death of men at the reproductive age. All these factors (sexual rate, marriage
assumption, first marriage age, intensive marriage, the the table 7 proves a dramatic change in the fertility rate.
widowing scale) mark one of the most important fea- During the given period the mortality of the first child
tures of fertility rate which is being in long term mar- birth increased and the fertility of the fifth and the rest
riage. According to the sequence of the data provided on children is decreased.
Table 2. - The age of the mother and the number of the alive child birth (2015)
Group of age AH kids Order of the birth
1 kid 2 kids 3 and more kids
Total 718036 284362 242836 190838
15-19 34922 32620 2235 67
20-24 305670 185018 107736 12916
25-29 244529 53745 106884 83900
30-34 102728 10554 21531 70643
35-39 26524 2102 3914 20508
40-44 3430 319 483 2628
45-49 209 4 44 161
50-54 18 0 6 12
55 and older than it 6 0 3 3
Source: The table was done based on the information provided by the Uzbekistan State Statistics Centre by the author.
The analysis of the trend of the stable childbirth after another shows that the increase of the birth fertility is mainly owing to the fist child birth out of the total new born children. It also shows that the average age of the mothers who give a birth to their first has increased.
Therefore the social demographic climate which is formed in Uzbekistan is described as disproportionate. On one hand, decrease of the birth fertility rate in rural areas, the increase of the age for marriage and giving a birth among women, the decrease of the fourth and other
Table 3. - The division of the labor resource
children's birth indicate the low trend of the fertility. On the other hand, Uzbekistan has an appropriate demographic situation comparing to other countries, so in the 80s of XX century there was a high fertility rate. The high growth in fertility and low in mortality caused to the increase of the labor resources. It should be stated that 58,4% of the total population contain the labor resource. In recent years the number of labor resource is increasing considerably faster than the number of total population (Table 8).
in the Republic of Uzbekistan (1000 people)
Indices Years Changes In 2015 than 2010,%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total number of working resurses 16726,0 17286,4 17564,3 17814,1 18104,8 18277,1 109,3
Of it:
Economically active population 12286,6 12541,5 12850,1 13163,0 13505,4 13767,7 112,1
Economically inactive population 4439,4 4744,9 4714,2 4651,1 4599,4 4509,4 101,6
Share of Economically inactive population,% 26,5 27,4 26,8 26,1 25,4 24,7 -
Source: The table was done based on the information provided by the Uzbekistan State Statistics Centre by the author
Between 2010-2015 the number ofpeople in the country rose by 8,4% and the labor resource by 9,3%. Comparing to the total amount ofpopulation, the dramatic increase ofla-bor sources (35-42%o) indicate that the ones who were born during the period 1960-1990 where the highest fertility rate occurred were the ones who were the capable for labor.
As the result of social and economic reformations occurring in the country, the economic active part of the population is increasing. Particularly, the percentage of population who is actively seeking for employment cited 73,4% in 2010 and this reached to 75,3% in 2015. 4509.4 economically non active people who are included in labor
resource cite 24.7% oftotal and this trend is higher in rural areas which is 27,9%. On active people are the ones who are not contributing the economic situation of the country and its high percentage is considered a crucial situa-
tion. Economically non active people are those who are studying, the women who are at maternity leave, and the people who are unwilling to work or who are unable to start work in short time (Table 9).
Table 4. - Economically inactive people of the republic of Uzbekistan, thousand people
Indices Years Changes In 2015 than 2010,%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total number of economically inactive population 4439,4 4744,9 4714,2 4651,1 4599,4 4509,4 101,6
Of it:
Pupils and students who are studying and have no means of earning 1793,6 1876,7 1904,3 1836,3 1797,7 1807,9 100,8
Housewives and women who are not working but caring of their kids 1521,9 1438,9 1463,1 1520,8 1588,5 1541,0 101,3
Willingly unemployed and people who get profit from movable and immoveble property 1123,9 1429,3 1346,8 1294,0 1213,2 1160,5 103,3
Source: The table was done based on the information provided by the Uzbekistan State Statistics Centre by the author
As it is seen from the table, majority of the economically inactive people (40,9%) are students, which is 1,8 million people. This contains considerable amount of 16-20 year old population in total (20,5%). Moreover, the number of people are studying is increasing year by year. For instance, the number of students at secondary specialized institutions was 896,0 thousand in 2005 (Social development, 2007) while this trend reached to 1626,9 thousand people in 2014. As the result of the social and economic reformation in the development of education involving many students to newly constructed academic lyceums and vocational colleges is leading to the increase of the economically inactive people.
Due to existence of the complex demographic situation in Uzbekistan, 34,1% of economically inactive people contain housewives and women who are unemployed but looking after children. This could be the reason to high fertility rate. For example, in 2010 the number of born people was 634810 and in 2015 it was 734141 people. It should be emphasized, although the contribution of the women to population, labor resource and economic activity is weighty, they consist of large number in economically inactivity, as well. It is essential to involve women into social labors and become active people of the society. As we know, engaging women with job is distinguished with two important factors comparing with men.
Reduction of the number of economically inactive people is the main issue in all countries. It is connected with the following positive consequences:
- As the result of the increased number of employment, the gross domestic product will increase and the living conditions improve;
- The employment of the most population reduces the expenses of the government as well as social organizations which is spent on some economically inactive people;
- The demand and need in labor market will be equal, in order to provide the employers with the right personnel, the growth in economically active people is important.
Suggestions. In our opinion, in order to decrease the number of economically inactive people, the following actions should be taken. The women, which contain the majority number of economically inactive people, should be taken out of the household chores and be involved in production. This could be done in three ways.
- the engagement ofwomen into labor market is slower than men, and this is the national uniqueness, which means that women are mostly involved in household chores and childcare. By creating highly paid workplaces for women in both rural and urban areas, the official work places for men and women should be divided equally;
- by implementing the experiences of the developed countries, the tasty ingredients which can be prepared in short time or ready meals at reasonable price for rural and urban place people as well as delivering them to the consumers should be organized.
To involve as many people who are searching for jobs independently as possible to use the service of the centers who provide assist to find jobs, thus the number
of establishments which serves for the efficiency of the labor market should be increased, the cooperation between local headquarters and labor resource establishments should be strengthened. Activities which help people who are at hidden economy to be engaged with official jobs should be introduced.
Conclusion. The demographic situation in Uzbekistan, especially the fertility effects to the development of the labor market and this effect forms the quantity and contain of the suggestions of the workforce. The high
level of the fertility rate during 1960-1990 results the great number of workforce in the labor market. In addition, the increase of the fertility rate led to the growth of the economically inactive population, as well. Birth effects the age and sex of the population. After gaining the independence the decrease in birth caused to the reduction of the people who are capable of working. In conclusion, provision of the people who are at the age of working capability and running such programs could be an incentive to the increase of the suggestions by the labor market.
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