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9Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences 4 (2009 2) 549-559
УДК 947(571) + 314
The Birth Rate of the Townsfolk of Krasnoyarsk Territory in the Context of All-Russian Demographic Trends (1990th-2000th)
Ludmila N. Slavina and Anna V. Tolmacheva*
The Krasnoyarsk State Teachers' Training University
Named after V.P. Astafjev, 89 Lebedeva st., Krasnoyarsk, 660049 Russia 1
Received 6.11.2009, received in revised form 13.11.2009, accepted 20.11.2009
In the article the main trends of the birth rate development in post-soviet period in Russia are considered on example of the town population Krasnoyarsk territory, we also try to give characteristics of the changes in the fertility behavior of the townsfolk and to find out the answer to the question - how much the reproductive standards of the western countries get implanted in Russian society. In the article all territorial processes is shown in all-Russian context. The search is based on the census data and current demographic and social statistics.
Keywords: renewal of population, displacement of generations, modernization of birth rate, birth rate, reproductive process, aging of fertility, fertility behaviour, second demographic transition, « contraceptive revolution», illegitimate birth rate, common-law marriages.
Introduction
The Attempts of Russia in 1990-2000 to move to the west model of the development put a question - how much the west standards spread in a base sphere of Russian society -in a reproductive one. There isn't a faithful representation about it although the problems to birth rate in modern Russia have found extensive coverage in literature. However many of them were not considered fully or were not studied at all. Thus for answering to this question it's necessary to analyze both the dynamics of all-Russian characteristics and differentiations at the different groups of population and in different territories of the country so far as it's known that in Russia there is a great regional difference of the demographic development. The choice of the
* Corresponding author E-mail address: [email protected]
1 © Siberian Federal University. All rights reserved
article's subject is caused its poorly readiness in all-Russian scale and at the level of separate regions, needs in overcoming of misrepresentation in its interpretation which were made under the influence of the political conjuncture, as well as there is necessity of the objective elucidation of the processes of fertility for forming adequate view about modern society and warning against mistake in case of designing the social and demographic policy for the territory.
This work is about the analysis of fertility in the towns of Krasnoyarsk territory. We choose urban population as an object for search because on the one hand the townsfolk amount to three fourth of Krasnoyarsk territory population and in this case they define the situation in this sphere. On the other hand processes of fertility in the
cities are needed in special studying because they have differences in comparison with countryside's one. The lower temporary border of the study - a border of 1980th-1990th - is the time of the ending of soviet period and the beginning of a new history epoch and the upper border - 20062007 - is the time of activations of state policy to stimulate the fertility. In this period the fertility sphere developed in terms of internal stimulus mainly and was left of state interference in it. The aim of the article is to determine the main trends and particularities of the development of fertility in the towns of the Krasnoyarsk territory, to analyze the character of changes in fertility behavior in new history conditions and to understand the degree of the assimilation of western reproductive standards.
Material and methods
The source of the information in the work is the census data and current statistics published in «Demographic yearbook» of Russia and Krasnoyarsk territory. Unfortunately we have not data of the fertility behaviour of townsfolk except the results of the 1994 population microcensus. Such research was not held and these questions were struck off an all-Russia population census 2002 program. Therefore we estimate the results of reproductive views, motives and people's plans in terms of population census data and current fertility statistics. The nature of the sources makes for the choice of the demographer-statistical methods as main.
Points
It is logical to expect that parameters of the fertility process changed in a new historical condition as far as fertility behavior of Russian had to reform according to those models of birth rate realization which in the last one third of XX age in industrial developed country has got the name of the second demographic transition. Its
main features are: 1) fertility declines in early ages - before 25 years - in the first place because women before 20 years begin their sexual life early and increasing of the contribution 30-40-year mothers in the general birth rate; 2) the interval between marriage and childbearing and following birth increases, it is possible by reason of using perfect contraceptives and planning family; 3) the average age of mothers for the firstbirths also increases; 4) widening of marriage's scope and quick growing a number of children to be born in not registered marriage; 5) growing number of never given birth women at age senior 35 years that is connected with increased infertility and, the main, with spreading conscious refusal of parenthood. The statistics allows to check this standpoint on example of Krasnoyarsk's citizens.
Reproductive potential of urban population on the epochs' border
The sources show that main trends of the fertility development in cities of Krasnoyarsk territory in XX century were the same like in another Russian cities and the having particularities played the secondary role. Like all Russian citizens during the century Krasnoyarsk population adopted to the modernization reproductive standards and following to inhabitant of the western countries realized the demographic transition to modern type of reproduction of population. The first sign of fertility modernization became the reduction of its level which as far back as the soviet period lowered below borders of simple substitution of generations in cities. They use the total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime, and she were to survive from birth through the end of her reproductive life. In 1991 TFR was 1,505 children in Krasnoyarsk
cities against 1,531 in Russian one1. It means that the substitution of generations was ensured 70 per cent only as far as for the replacement of generation needs women are to born 2,122,15 children. The net reproduction rate (NRR) means that each generation of mothers is having exactly enough daughters to replace itself in the population, it was also below 1 - the border of renewal of population - and in 1990 it was 0,781 for Krasnoyarsk's cities (against 0,866 in Russia)2.
Stages of the fertility development in the post-soviet period
There are two stages of the birth rate process in the cities of the territory in post-soviet period. The first - 1990-2000 years - was marked by stable fertility decline and the second - 2001 -up-to-day - is marked by the rotation of its rise and decline (Table 1).
Russia has entered in the post-soviet period on the wave of the fertility decline which in Krasnoyarsk cities began in 1987 when TFR was equal 2,0163. In 1991 it was lowered a quarter and continued to decline. Its changes, in percent to previous year, was following: 1991 - (-13,0); 1992 - (-13,0); 1993 - (-10,7); 1994 - (+10,0); 1995 - (-4,5); 1996 - (-5,9); 1997 - (-5,4); 1998 - (+2,3); 1999 - (-6,2) (is calculated according data of tabl. 1). It's seen the beginning of reforms in 1992 has not caused the shock in the reproductive sphere. There was not a collapse fertility decline in 1993, when were born children planned in previous year. In 1994 the birth rate increased and reached the 1992 level. The decline of fertility continued in 19951997 at a slower pace than at the beginning of the decade. Probably townsfolk adapted to the
1 The demographic yearbook of Krasnoyarsk territory.
2007. Krasnoyarsk, 2007. P. 43.
2 Ibid. P. 44.
3 About demographic processes in Krasnoyarsk territory.
Krasnoyarsk, 1988. P. 62.
changers and reproductive process returned in the natural development.
The reaction to the 1998 crisis of Krasnoyarsk townsmen was rather soft. Fertility decline in 1999 was intensified by its unexpected growth during previous year. So we can state a fact that social and economical crisis wasn't the sole reason of fertility decline but it became a accelerant of the process only. In Krasnoyarsk territory the birth rate was the lowest in post-soviet period and the process of fertility decline progressed slower than in Russia. From 1991 till 1999 the intensity of birth lowered a 30,3 % (against 31,7 % in Russia)4 and it cut by half from 1987.
The short period of the birth rate growing began in 2000. By 2003 TFR increased 18 % in comparison with 1999 but then it began to lower. All in all since 1991to 2006 the birth rate reduced 22,3 % in Krasnoyarsk against 21,7 % in Russia5. In 2006 when government brisk the demography policy up and there were pro-natality national projects which stimulate the fertility the birth rate of the cities of Krasnoyarsk territory ensured the displacement of generations with 55,2 % only (56,6 % in Russia). It was lower than in developed countries including western countries where the cumulative rate was from 1,3 (in Japan) to 2,0-2,1 (in France and the USA)6.
Main factors of the fertility's development in new condition
It is well-known that the birth rate is primary provided with the reproductive (procreative) behaviour of the population which changes under the influence of the complex of factors. According to opinion of some scientist (Zaharov, Ivanova: 75) in demographic sphere of the Russia in 1990th there were three «powers» caused changes of
4 Calculated by: The demographic yearbook of Krasnoyarsk territory. 2007. P. 43
5 Calculated by: Ibid.
6 The demographic yearbook of Russia. 2008. M., 2008. P. 549 - 550
Table 1. The trends of the fertility rates in Krasnoyarsk cities (1991-2007)
Year Fertility rate TFR NRR Year Fertility rate TFR NRR
1991 11,6 1,505 2000 8,9 1,072 0,502
1992 10,0 1,309 2001 9,7 1,136 0,535
1993 8,9 1,169 0,557 2002 10,6 1,218 0,585
1994 9,8 1,286 0,603 2003 10,9 1,238 0,581
1995 9,5 1,228 0,578 2004 10,9 1,218 0,572
1996 9,1 1,155 0,549 2005 10,6 1,166 0,555
1997 8,7 1,093 0,504 2006 10,7 1,170 0,551
1998 9,0 1,118 0,529 2007 11,4 1,235 0,588
1999 8,6 1,049 0,490
The demographic yearbook of Krasnoyarsk territory. 2007. P. 28, 43, 44.
statistical indicators of the birth rate: a) the results of permanent trend; b) the medium-term effects of surging in 1980th; c) the forming of the new image of the demographic behaviour as a result of the adapting people to changed social conditions. The Action these «powers» distinctly appeared in Krasnoyarsk's cities. Long before the end of the soviet period the specific model of a family with one child or rarely two children was formed there. It seemed this process flew like in Europe where one or two-children families prevailed. But the trends were different. In the west from the end of 1960th there was process of the fertility displacement from early ages to older one while in Russia and in Krasnoyarsk territory there was inverse process. In 1981 the state interference in reproductive process led to deformation in this sphere there was a displacement in birth timing when parents gave birth earlier planning time but they didn't want to give birth more than one or two children. All in all the baby-boom of the first part of 1980th changed to fertility decline at the beginning of 1990th.
After USSR collapse there was the third force - the adaptations people to new living conditions led the decline of birth rate. It was proved that the transformation of basic principles when a family and children lose their first-priority position is the main cause of fertility
decline. Russian population began to show it in soviet period when the value to have children was excluded by another values. In post-soviet period radical changes in economy and social sphere incited the process of review living principles and strategies of procreative behavior. The government stopped to fulfil obligations - the benefits and family allowances were reduced, commercialization of social infrastructure reduced to cutback of free services' volume, young families lost possibility to receive help from parents which were in difficult economical situation. Decline of guarantee of labor and social protectability, uncertainty in future and appears of new perspectives for self-actualization led to the situation when youth began to develop their human and social funds but the family and children needs were moved away. Thus the evolution of procreative behaviours of the population first of all youth started to define the reduction of well-being, on the one hand, and growing of the life claims on another. Growing of tension in household relations and marriage dissatisfactions, the deterioration of reproductive health of the women and men, connected with complex of the reasons, typical for connecting period promoted the reduction of the children's number in families. The huge role in adjustment of sexual and reproductive behaviour of the
population played contraceptives which were wide spread that time.
Reproductive attitudes of townsfolk and their realization
Microcensus of the populations in 1994 has fixed reproductive «preferences» and plans of Krasnoyarsk women entered in new life, which has taken into account the number of given birth, desired and expected children by women at age 18-44. It has shown that 30,6 % women gave birth to one child, 36,2 % - two and only 14,7 % - three and more children1. So each of polled women averagely gave birth to 1,561 child. These data were a resume of the reproductive activities of townsfolk at soviet period. For us it is more interesting to research data of desired and expected children2 because it is an indicator of demography future of Russia. First rate showed needs in children at all and the second one told on real reproductive plans updated with provision for the individual possibilities of their execution.
Microcensus data has also shown that social-economical cataclysm didn't influence to reproductive sphere. Each town family had children. The number of married women which didn't give birth - 8,4 % - was up-to-date of the physiological sterility (3-7 % as it is estimated)3. In future only 3,9 % women didn't expect to have a child (Table 2). Thus Krasnoyarsk territory differed from western countries much where women hadn't children voluntarily - there were about 20 % of women under 35 years old which hadn't children while there were only 2,6 % of such women in our territory. At the same time the data fixed rather modest reproductive plans (1,4-1,7 child) that promised depopulation in 10-15 years. It is well known that for simple
1 Marriage status and fertility in Russia (according to microcensus 1994). M.,1995. P. 132.
2 There are already born children in the category of expected children.
3 Marriage status ... P. 145.
reproduction of population it is necessary more than a half of families must have 3 children. In our cities only 3-4 % of women under 18-30 years old expected to have three children and less than 1,0 % wanted to have four and more children.
Thus procreative plans of Krasnoyarsk women differed from their reproductive ideals a little. In ideal conditions women wanted to have 1,834 child but expected 1,666 one. This difference is shown that there was a chance to raise birth rate with help of arrangements of social policy. But the size of the difference (0,20,3 child) showed that first of all there was a little opportunity to rise fertility by traditional methods and it was a fact that the material factor (living conditions) little influence to realization of needs in children.
In 1990th townsfolk of Krasnoyarsk territory realized their reproductive plans fixed in microcensus 1994. The resume of their reproductive activities was fixed by All-Russia Population Census 2002. Comparison of the number planned in 1994 children and received result in 2002 is obstructed because between two censuses passed only 8 years and to use the method of replacement of ages (five-year cohorts) isn't correct. Therefore using it shows the average number of planned children in 1994 was rather similar to average their fact number in 2002 (Table 2,3) so the majority of women even in difficult conditions gave birth to planned children. Been going to give birth at the average on 1,386 child 18-19-year girls in 1994, which were in 2002 in group of 25-29-year, had 0,943 child, 30-34-year townsfolk gave birth to 1,311 child except of 1,418 planned 8 years ago. But they must give birth to children in future. 35-39-year women have given birth to 1,600 children instead of expected 1,565, 40-44-year women - 1,776 instead of 1,740. The census also showed that each cohort of women which were born after 1932 did not provide the
Table 2. Age group and number of planned and desired children distributions of the women in cities of Krasnoyarsk territory, according to microcensus 1994
Women's age, years From 1000 of women expect children average number of children
none one two three four five and more planned desired
18-44 39 382 486 75 11 7 1666 1834
including
18-19 91 480 394 31 2 2 1386 1648
20-24 52 518 404 22 2 2 1418 1692
25-29 31 450 464 45 6 4 1565 1793
30-34 27 343 525 87 11 7 1740 1904
35-39 26 282 548 117 17 10 1855 1938
40-44 36 301 521 109 20 13 1824 1904
Marriage status ... P. 253; Borisov: 41.
Table 3. Age group and number of born children distributions of the women in cities of Krasnoyarsk territory and Russia according to All-Russia population census 2002
Number of born children to 1000 women at age, years
9 4 ^ 9 ^ 4 m 9 4 9 4 in 9 4 VO 9 VO d § Ö
-5 -8 0 2 5 2 -0 3 -5 3 -0 4 -5 4 -0 5 -5 5 -0 6 -5 6 o 2 7o
Krasnoyarsk 15 74 404 943 1311 1600 1776 1847 1810 1759 1830 1924 2297
territory
Russia 16 71 383 901 1263 1524 1685 1733 1697 1636 1676 1736 1950
Fertility. The resume of All-Russia population census 2002. Vol.12. M., 2005. P. 6-7, 140-141.
displacement of generations in town population of the territory.
Change the age patterns of childbearing
The dynamic of age-specific birth rates gives the most exact notion about changers in reproductive behavior of women in cities (Table 4). The different velocity of the reduction (and growing) factors in different women cohort is evidence of significant change in the age patterns of childbearing this period. It is important to define which attributes we can interpret as a sings of «west direction» in fertility transform and which ones - as their absence.
Countries where the second demographic transition was the changes began from the decline of intensity of birth of girls at 15-19 years old. In Krasnoyarsk territory this trend began in 1992
and ended in 2000th. The cause of such dynamic is clear. In 1960th-1980th the rise of fertility at this cohort of women was connected with sexual revolution and contraceptive illiteracy. But now we can see the process of soul-searching. It means that now young girls choose the number of children they want to have and plan the time of child-bearing.
The reduction of birth rate among young townsfolk marked the aging of reproductive process. There was the same dynamic at the 2024 years-old women. The birth rate of this cohort was rather stable last decade of soviet period (in 1959-149,3, in 1986-1987 - 151,9'). But in 19871999 it decline to 45,1 %, in 2000th - 10,0 % and finally it was reduced in 1,7 in 1991-2006.
1 About demography process in Krasnoyarsk territory.
P. 62.
Table 4. Age-specific birth rate in cities of Krasnoyarsk territory 1986-2007
Years Live births per 1000 women at age, years
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 15-49
1986-1987 49,4 151,9 104,8 64,7 26,8 5,5 0,1 64,5
1991 51,0 125,2 70,7 36,8 14,9 2,7 0,2 43,0
1992 46,0 110,1 60,2 30,5 12,4 3,1 0,2 36,9
1993 45,2 100,1 52,3 24,8 9,6 2,2 0,1 32,4
1999 27,2 83,9 57,7 28,9 10,2 1,7 0,1 29,2
2000 24,1 85,2 61,0 31,9 10,2 2,0 0,1 30,0
2003 24,4 89,6 74,9 42,8 14,8 2,2 0,1 36,2
2004 24,6 85,2 75,4 42,0 15,0 2,6 - 36,2
2005 24,7 78,0 71,1 42,7 16,4 2,4 0,1 35,2
2006 24,7 75,5 74,3 43,2 16,7 2,4 0,1 35,9
2007 23,7 75,7 78,7 49,9 19,5 3,2 0,1 38,3
1999 by 1991, % 53,3 67,0 81,6 78,5 68,5 63,0 50,0 67,9
2006 by 1999, % 90,8 90,0 128,8 149,5 163,7 141,2 100,0 122,9
2006 by 1991, % 48,4 60,3 105,1 117,4 112,1 88,9 50,0 89,1
The demographic yearbook of Krasnoyarsk territory. 2
We dare say that there are two causes of the decline. Firstly it was a conscious reorientation to western standards but it also was a reaction to bad living conditions. Although the living conditions were better in 2000th the birth rate didn't rise. So we can interpret it as the aging of fertility.
There was the same dynamic at other age groups in 2000th. At cohort of 25-29 year-old townsfolk the fertility declined less than at others ages and in 2000th it even rise to 5,1 %. Due to aging of fertility the birth rate in the 20-24 and 25-29 groups became equal whereas in 1991 there was a difference (1,8).
The indicators of birth rate among 30 and even 40-year-old townsfolk show the moving of births to medium and senior ages. In 1990th the fertility of these cohorts declined but in 2000th it rose in 1.4-1.6 points. It's difficult to predict the stability of this trend. It was cause with force-majeure - in 2000th the townsfolk used the last chance to realize delayed child-bearing. But due to women older 25 the birth rate began to increase in the cities of our territory and the mothers'
7. P. 70.
average age of childbearing rose to 26,73 years1. This item is less than in Russia - 27,0 years2. As far as Russia began the second demographic transition late the fertility in Russia is younger than in industrial countries.
Due to aging of reproductive process the contribution to total fertility by women of different ages changed. Although the women of young ages carried the main reproductive load there is the rise contribution of 30-40-year-old women: in 2000 17,9 % of mothers were under 30 years old but in 2006 - 23,0 %3. This process depends on structure factor (drop in strength of cohort). Thus in 2000th the rise of contribution of 30-40-year-old women was stopped by numerous 20-24 year-old girls were born after 1981 (there was a baby-boom) which gave a birth more than one third of newborns (35,8 %)4 and it helped to create illusion of fertility increase last years.
1 The demographic yearbook of Krasnoyarsk territory. 2007. P. 75.
2 The demographic yearbook of Russia. 2008. P. 169.
3 Calculated by: The demographic yearbook of Krasnoyarsk territory. 2000. Krasnoyarsk, 2001. P. 60; Ibid. 2007. P. 79.
4 Calculated by: Ibid.
The attribute of western reproductive process is the increase of the mean age of women at childbearing for first orders. In western countries the childbearing period usually began at 25 but Siberian women first gave a birth at early ages as in soviet period. There is a moving to western standards now: in 2000 - 31,2 % of firstborns were born by women under 25, in 2006 - 37,9 %!.
Changers in reproductive views of young and using contraceptives fluctuated the basic Russian custom - don't use contraceptives in family before the birth of the first child. The fact is the level of marriage quantity among young townsfolk is rather high but the birth rate is rather low. It means that spouses postpone the birth of first children and they don't hurry with the second one. The Census of 2002 fixed this phenomenon. According to census 39,1 % of townsfolk under 20- 24 years old didn't give a birth any children; 53,8 % of them had one child; 6,4 % had two children and only 0,7 % had three and more children. Among women at 25-29 years old 15,3 % hadn't any child, 61,5 % gave a birth to one child, 20,9 % had two children. But there isn't a sign of spreading the voluntary childlessness. 6,9 % women under 35-39 years old (including 3,6 % married women) hadn't children (in Russia 8,2 % and 4 % respectively)2.
Due to the fertility decline and the retention of overall of having children the percentage of firstborns increase. In this way our citizen differ from citizen of western countries: in the USA the relative density of firstborns was about 40 % at the beginning of 2000th, in Sweden - 45 %, in Russia - about 60 % (by Vishnevsky: 2). In 1991 in Krasnoyarsk territory the relative density of firstborns was 55,6 % and in 2006 - 61,9 %. The relative density of second children was
Calculated by: Ibid.
Calculated by: The Fertility. P. 6-7, 140-141, 180-181, 314-315.
low - 30-32 % and the relative density of third children declined from 12,5 % in 1991 to 8 % in 20063. Thus third and fourth births stop to play substantial role in forming birth rate in cities.
Non-marital fertility
If the ageing of cities fertility was a result of post-soviet development the non-marital births as the second sign of the second demographic transition was inherited from earlier epoch (Table 5). There is considerable difficulty in identifying this trend. There are a lot of questions. What was a cause of this boom in post-soviet period? Why its level in Krasnoyarsk cities was higher than in countryside and in Russia? Why its growth stopped in 2000th? What are the demographic and social consequences of non-marital births? This phenomenon has not studied yet but it shows the deepest changers in people life. Ex facte the increase of non-marital births looks like the results of the «stretching of marriage borders», family modernization and forming of the model of social liberalism as a type of marriage (Rimashevskaya: 13-14).
Non-marital fertility of Krasnoyarsk townsfolk isn't a western fashion trend. During the second half of XX century it exceeded All-Russia level and in new conditions saved its trend. On the contrary the proportion of non-marital births among townsfolk increased in 1.7 items and reached 30 % as in Europe.
It's hard to identify how many children were born as a result of «sexual freedom» of their mothers and who was born in real (not registered) marriage which were widespread among Krasnoyarsk citizen. According to microcensus 1994 9,3 % of women living in cities were in real marriage against of 5,8 % in Russia4. In 2002 this
The demographic yearbook of Krasnoyarsk territory. 1996. Krasnoyarsk, 1997. P. 79; Ibid. 2006. Krasnoyarsk, 2006. P. 79.
The marriage status... P. 46-47.
Table 5. Proportion of births by unmarried women in cities of Krasnoyarsk territory and Russia in 19602007, %
Proportion of children were born in not registered marriage in total births, in year
1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1991 1999 2005 2006 2007
Krasnoyarsk territory 16,8 12,1 13,9 12,8 15,0 18,6 31,5 33,4 31,8 31,8
Russia 11,5 9,6 9,3 9,6 11,3 15,5 27,3 28,4 27,5 26,5
Calculated by: Population size, composition and moving in RSFSR. M.,1990. P. 157; The demographic yearbook of Russia. 2008. P. 171; The demographic yearbook of Krasnoyarsk territory. 2007. P. 79
Table 6. The dynamics of abortion in Krasnoyarsk territory and in Russia (1990-2006).
Abortions number Territory 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006
Per 1000 women at 15-49 years old Krasnoyarsk territory 126,6 94,3 71 59 56
Russia 113,9 72,8 54 44 41
Per 100 births Krasnoyarsk territory 220,1 259,6 214 158 147
Russia 205,9 169 169 121 107
The demographic yearbook of Russia. 2008. P. 179, 181; The economy of Krasnoyarsk territory in 1999 (statistic yearbook). Krasnoyarsk, 2000. P.168.
percentage increased to 15,6 % in our territory against 9,0 % in Russia1.
Data about the children were registered by declaration of mother (means non-marital birth) and by mutual declaration of parents (means real marriage) help to identify the both categories. But it doesn't mean that every child of the second category is a result of real marriages. Some fathers avouched their children having another family. Though in 2006 only 52,0 % of such children were registered by mutual declaration of parents2. Others were real non-marital born.
method of birth control and has also played a role in concentrating women's reproductive activity because contraceptives have been unavailable. Only in recent years, as the availability of effective contraceptives has increased and the negative effects of abortion have been openly reported by the media, has the number of abortions begun to decline. But so far Russia is the only industrial country where the number of abortion exceeds the number of birth. Krasnoyarsk territory is distinguished by higher level of abortion and slower speed of its decline (Table 6).
Methods of birth control
Clarifying the common and the particular in reproductive behavior of Krasnoyarsk townsfolk it's necessary to notice the fact of the overuse of abortion for fertility regulation. The incidence of abortion in Russia is the world's highest. In soviet period the abortion has become Russia's main
1 Calculated by: Population by age groups and marriages. The resumes of All-Russia census 2002. Vol.2. M., 2004. P. 303, 385.
2 Calculated by: The demographic yearbook of Krasnoyarsk territory. 2006. P. 83.
Discussions
The analysis of changing in main trends of fertility follows to the conclusion.
Though in this period there is no regulation of reproductive processes by federal government the fertility of Krasnoyarsk territory continued to develop in All-Russia trends like in the soviet period. The dynamic of reproductive process was changeable. Although there are positive tendency in 2000th the fertility rates of Krasnoyarsk cities
remain lower than in Russia and the lowest than it's necessary for simple reproduction of population. The birth rate in Krasnoyarsk cities (1,235) and in Russia (1,283) in 2007 ensured only a half of displacement of generations (58,2 and 60,5 % respectively).
Adapting to new reality townsfolk of Krasnoyarsk territory corrected their reproductive behavior according to western standards. It is difficult to say either it is a result of modernization or westernization (copying of another's experience). Though the outward signs of changing in townsfolk reproductive sphere correspond to our concept. In 2000th there is a second demographic transition. Its main signs are a low level of birth rate, wide spread occurrence of real marriages, increase of non-marital births, ageing of reproductive process. The pronatality policy of the government strengthened this trend. The ageing of fertility is interpreted as the welfare as far as young have to decide other tasks besides childbearing. There are negative trends of developing of reproductive sphere such as a great number of firstborns but scarcity of second and follow births and high rate of abortion. The positive trend is almost each family has children.
The procreative behavior of townsfolk in Krasnoyarsk and Russia rather flexible responds to changing living conditions and pronatality policy of the government. The totals
The demographic yearbook of Russia. 2008. P. 98.
of 2007 confirm this fact when there were the first resumes of national project «Demography» which had to stimulate the second births. The youngest women and 20-24 years old townsfolk didn't respond to this policy. But there were a positive reaction by women under 25-44 years old. Due to this cohort the TFR increased to 5,6 % in 2007 (against 7,0 % in Russia) and number of newborns increased from 54,4 to 57,82.
Conclusions
The research shows that reproductive behavior of townsfolk under 20 years old was not stable and still depended on external conditions. There is a chance to increase the birth rate in cities when the living conditions are better and the beginning of realization of national demographic project fixed it. The changing of age-specific birth rates gives recommendations for those who design the demographic policy. Now it is clear that the supporting of young families and incentives of their reproductive activities are not determinant factor of increasing of fertility in cities. However the fluctuation of reproductive behavior of townsfolk complicates any prognosis of further development and obliges to watch over all changes as far as to know new trends of fertility and its factors facilitates successful pronatality policy.
Ibid. P. 95, 101.
References
Borisov V.A. The desired number of children in Russian families on data microcensus 1994. Vestnik MSU. Set 18 Social and political science, 2 (1997). p.30-64.
Vishnevsky A.G. Specific of Russian fertility. Population and society, 100 (2006). p.1-4. Zaharov S.V., Ivanova E.I. Fertility and nuptiality in Russia. Social Reseach, 7 (1997), №7. p.75. Zaharov S.V. Fertility outlook in Russia: the second demographic transition. Domestic notes, 3 (2005), 13-20.
Rimashevskaya N.M. Family in demographic processes. Population, 4 (2008), 9-19.
Resources
Russian demography internet-weekly Demoskope-weekly http://demoscope.ru The demographic yearbook of Russia. 2008. M., 2008. http://demoscope.ru
