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Большая сумма переплаты. высокая процентная ставка 22
Наличие собственных средств/отсутствие необходимости в кредитах э
Большое количество документов для оформления кредита 2 Необходимость представления документов об официальной зарплате 1
Рисунок 4 - Основные барьеры на российском рынке автокредитования, %,
Из данных следует, что основными препятствиями служат большая сумма переплаты, высокая процентная ставка. Это очевидно, так как многие не располагают таким объемом денежных средств, который был бы необходим при получении автомобиля на условиях кредитования.
Использованные источники:
1. Агеева Н. А. Основы банковского дела: Учебное пособие / Н.А. Агеева. -М.:ИЦ РИОР: НИЦ ИНФРА-М, 2014. - 274 с.
2. Жукова Е.Ф. Потребительский кредит: спасение или кабала? // Человек и закон. - 2012. - № 7. - С. 63-65.
3. Лобов С.А. Альтернатива автомобильного кредитования / Банковские услуги. - 2010. - №32 (320). - c.17.
4. Мамонова И.Д. Финансы. Денежное обращение. Кредит: учеб. пособие для студентов вузов /М.: Финансы и статистика, 2004. - 495 с.
5. Скогорева А. Вторая волна экспансии иностранцев // Банковское дело. -2011. - №3. - С.29.
6. Целикова С. Автомобильный рынок России - 2013. Предварительные итоги. - Автостат. - 17.12.2013.
Демидов А.П. студент Бураков Д.В., научный руководитель, старший преподаватель департамент «Финансовые рынки и банки» Финансовый университет при Правительстве РФ
Россия, г. Москва ПРОБЛЕМЫ ТАРГЕТИРОВАНИЯ ИНФЛЯЦИИ В РОССИИ Данная статья посвящена исследованию современных проблем применения режима таргетирования инфляции в России. Проанализированы основные факторы, приводящие к неэффективности использования
процентной политики для борьбы с инфляцией.
Ключевые слова: экономический рост, денежная масса, ставка процента, Центральный Банк, таргетирование, инфляция
Demidov A.P., student Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation,
Moscow Scientific supervisor: Burakov D.V., PhD in Economics, Senior Lecturer, Department "Financial Markets and Banks", Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation,
Moscow
PROBLEMS WITH INFLATION TARGETING IN RUSSIA
This article explores modern challenges of using inflation targeting framework in Russia. Main factors, leading to inefficiency of applying interest rate policy for curbing inflation are analyzed.
Keywords: economic growth, money supply, interest rate, Central Bank, targeting policy, inflation.
One of the main challenges for the transition to the inflation-targeting regime in Russia is the influence of non-monetary factors on inflation.
For example, Central Bank's interest rate policy. Central Bank needs to influence the situation in the money market rate. But at the whole period of application of the regime of inflation targeting, the Central Bank actively carried out foreign exchange intervention. Obviously, in the first instance it was associated with instability in the currency market, however, this situation only underscores the instability in the financial market and lowers impact of the Central Bank on the situation. Since the transition to floating exchange rate regime on 10 November 2014, the Central Bank carried out interventions at 37.3 billion dollars, since the beginning of 2014 the international reserves of the Central Bank were empty 77.7 billion. [1,2]
An important factor is to minimize the effect on the economy of export goods for which the price has high volatility. Due to the fact that Russia is traditionally the exporter of energy resources this issue is very critical. A clear example of the current economic crisis is that a major factor in the weakening of the national currency has been a sharp decline in oil prices, due to the fact that the price of gas is also tied to the market price of oil, Russia lost a part of foreign currency revenues which supported the national currency. Energy is a commodity with a highly volatile price, a few years of shortages in the market led to a rapid rise in prices, however, even a slight surplus of collapsing prices down. Despite the fact that Russia is the world's largest exporter of oil, it can't affect the price of our country. In such a difficult situation, for the Central Bank is extremely difficult to control inflation. To be precise, the basic relationship of inflation and a decline in oil prices is as follows. While energy prices in the domestic market are falling, there is a shortage of foreign currency, foreign currency is required for Russian businesspersons to purchase
goods abroad, over the lack of currency should increase its prices associated with demand in excess of the supply. All this will be included in the final price of goods, due to the fact that in modern Russia there is a high percentage of imported goods, according to Rosstat in 2015, it was 39% , there is a substantial price increase which accelerates inflation. The Central Bank could not affect inflation in the emerging thus, in connection with which inflation targeting with interest rate changes is virtually impossible. The Central Bank in Russia is, in such a situation, actually adopting a flexible inflation targeting regime and the impact on the financial market through foreign exchange interventions, however, this monetary policy also does not provide the desired result, which is why the national currency is undergoing a significant decline against major world exchange rates. [3,4]
The existence of monopolies in the country is also quite an important factor influencing inflation. So monopolies controlling the markets, able to change the prices of goods and services with no fear of falling demand. Direct impact on the monopoly of the Central Bank, but it is worth noting that in monetary policy the Central Bank from year to year, emphasizes the reduction of inflation to the Government of Russia is required to reduce the impact of natural monopolies on the economy. The growth rates directly lead to a direct increase in the prices of goods and services produced by monopolists and put into the cost of goods and services produced by entrepreneurs. So, for example, the growth of prices for housing and communal services not only increases spending on rent, but also laid all goods and services produced in the country grew up in connection with production costs. Also monopolies restrict competition, which in turn also leads to non-market price formation. [5]
It is also worth to emphasize the fact that inflation in Russia, as already mentioned, is cost inflation, not inflation of demand. That is, the formation of prices in Russia largely related to rising costs than with monetary problems. According to several studies , the contribution of non-monetary measures changes from year to year from 2005 to 2012, this figure varies from 4% to 1.5%, while General inflation from 6% to 13% . In the period of the crisis, the situation only worsened. So according to the schedule provided by the Ministry of economic development (figure 16) the main contribution to inflation had weakened the ruble and counter-sanctions imposed by Russia against a number of countries. It should be noted that devaluation of the national currency in such a difficult political and economic situation is not fully a monetary problem, and is associated with a number of factors on which the Central Bank can not influence. Also in figure 16 can be seen, and a great contribution to counter sanctions.
The contribution of the main factors in inflation 2014-2016 (figure 16)
To keep inflation targets in such a situation is extremely difficult - this is one of the main factors of failure of inflation targeting regime in Russia.
At the same time it should be noted that inflation in Russia in the pre-crisis period was largely formed due to circumstances related to non-monetary factors. So rising prices can be blamed such factors as:
• infrastructure, according to The Global Competitiveness Index 2014-2015,
Russia ranks only 74th on the quality of overall infrastructure;
• corruption, according to Transparency International's corruption perceptions index, Russia ranked 119th place;
• the availability of credit, access to credit in Russia according to estimates of The Global Competitiveness Index 2014-2015 is in Russia at a level slightly lower than the average level in the rankings, Russia ranks only 56th place.
In such circumstances, the influence of Central Bank on inflation is quite low and the effective application of the inflation targeting regime is not feasible. For the full application of the inflation targeting regime requires the effort of all the authorities to reduce non-monetary factors of inflation.
Использованные источники:
1. Басс А.Б., Бураков Д.В., Удалищев Д.П. Тенденция развития банковской системы России: монография. М.: Русайнс. - 2015. - 216 с;
2. Басс А.Б. Инфляционные процессы в России в условиях кризиса /А.Б. Басс// Экономика. Бизнес. Банки - 2016. - №2(15). - С. 82-92;
3. Басс А.Б. Таргетирование инфляции в России и цены на продукцию естественных монополий /А.Б. Басс/ Банковские услуги. - 2015. - №5. - с. 1013;
4.Бураков Д.В. Управление цикличностью движения кредита: монография. М.:Русайнс. - 2015. - 288 с.;
5. Финансы, деньги и кредит: учебник и практикум для академического бакалавриата под ред. Буракова Д.В. - М:Юрайт. - 2016. - 329 с.
Дербенев К.А. студент магистратуры 1 курса факультет «Экономика и управление» ФГБОУ ВПО «СибАДИ» Ренгольд О. В. научный руководитель Россия, г. Омск
ВЗАИМОСВЯЗЬ ДИНАМИКИ МИРОВОЙ ЦЕНЫ НА НЕФТЬ И КУРСА РОССИЙСКОЙ НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ ВАЛЮТЫ
Статья рассматривает зависимость между ценами на нефть и курсом российской валюты относительно доллара и евро. Проведен анализ их динамики за последние три года. Представлены перспективы изменения цен на нефть во взаимосвязи с куром российской национальной валютой.
Ключевые слова: валютный курс, доллар, евро, национальная валюта, цена на нефть.
