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Азаряев Р.Ю. студент Бураков Д.В., к.э.н. научный руководитель, старший преподаватель департамент «Финансовые рынки и банки» Финансовый университет при Правительстве
РФ, г. Москва ТАРГЕТИРОВАНИЕ ИНФЛЯЦИИ В РОССИИ Данная статья посвящена исследованию специфики применения режима таргетирования инфляции в России. Проанализированы основные этапы перехода и особенности применении данного режима в российских условиях.
Ключевые слова: экономический рост, денежная масса, ставка процента, Центральный Банк, таргетирование, инфляция
Azaryaev R. U., student
Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation,
Moscow Scientific supervisor: Burakov D.V., PhD in Economics, Senior Lecturer, Department "Financial Markets and Banks", Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation,
Moscow
INFLATION TARGETING IN RUSSIA
This article explores the application of inflation targeting framework in Russia. Main phases of emergence and development as well as Russian specifics in the application of this regime are analyzed.
Keywords: economic growth, money supply, interest rate, Central Bank, targeting policy, inflation.
For Russia's transition to long-term economic growth, reducing inflation is a crucial factor. In Russia today, inflation is much higher than in developed countries. Therefore, in our country, it was decided to switch to inflation targeting regime. In the first place it is associated with good rates of inflation after the transition to inflation targeting regime in both developed and developing countries. [1-3]
Since 2000, one of the main guidelines of monetary policy is inflation targeting. So the main directions of unified state of monetary policy for 2000s the inflation target was 18%, but real inflation was 20.1%.
In 2001, the Central Bank has set as the inflation target range of 12-14%, the annual inflation rate in 2001 was 18%.
Target inflation in 2002 also had a range that was predicted at the level of 14.3% -15,5%, the real inflation was 15.6%.
According to the unified monetary policy for 2003 the purpose of inflation was in the range of 10-12%. This year can be called successful for the Central Bank, as inflation was 11.99%. [4]
For 2004, the inflation target was 8% -10%, however inflation in 2004 has not much decreased relative to 2003 and amounted to 11.74%.
In 2005, according to Central Bank forecasts, inflation was to reach 7.5— 8.5%, but real inflation was - 10.91%.
In 2006, the Central Bank also failed to fulfill the objectives of monetary policy, focusing on the range of 6%-7,5% of the basic inflation amounted to 9%.
Worth noting is the fact that despite the fact that the Central Bank actually managed to keep inflation at the target value only in 2003 the level has declined steadily all the time, but in 2007 and 2008, inflation has accelerated and amounted to 11.87 per cent in 2007 and of 13.28% in 2008, respectively. Primarily this can be attributed to the global financial crisis. It is also worth noting the fact that during the financial crisis countries that apply inflation targeting regime, also failed to keep inflation at the target values. [3]
Since 2009, the Central Bank began to develop a unified monetary policy not one year in advance, as it was previously, and for the two subsequent years. So we can say that the Central Bank has increased the planning horizon to three years.
High inflation during the crisis period was offset by low inflation in post-crisis period. So in 2009, inflation amounted to 8.8% as the goal of the Central Bank was in the range of 7,0 -8,5% that is the real level of inflation slightly exceeded the targets.
In 2010, inflation has not significantly decreased and made up 8.78% at the target range of 8.5% to 9.5%, which in turn can be called a certain success of the Central Bank in the field of control over inflationary processes.
In the period from 2011 to 2013, inflation in Russia reached a record low. And 6.1% in 2011 of 6.58% in 2012 to 6.45% in 2013, respectively. This level of inflation can be considered very close to the level of inflation in developed countries. Borrowing the same or a slightly lower level of inflation in the long term should have a positive impact on the Russian economy. What about the target values of inflation, they amounted to 6% — 7% in 2011, 5% — 6% in 2012 and 5% — 6% in 2013. Thus, we see that the decline in inflation, the Central Bank always set ourselves more ambitious goals. This is primarily related to inflationary expectations of the public. The role of psychological factors in inflation, it is impossible not to evaluate that claimed low target level of inflation has a positive impact on inflation expectations. However, it is not the achievement of the objectives of monetary policy which leads to an increase of distrust to the Central Bank. [3]
Year 2014 can be called a transition to full-fledged inflation targeting regime. So, from 10 November 2014 the Central Bank of Russia moved to a floating exchange rate, abolishing the actions in exchange rate policy. The objective of monetary policy for 2014 was a benchmark of 5%, but due to the difficult economic situation, the real inflation rate was 11.36%. [5]
In 2015 Russia applies a policy of full-fledged inflation targeting regime.
According to the developed main directions of unified state monetary policy for 2015 and the period 2016 and 2017, the Central Bank as planned switched to inflation targeting regime. According to the same document, the objective of monetary policy is to reduce inflation to 4%, and further borrowing at this level . Also according to this document inflation in Russia in 2015 was to be 4.0 to 4.5% but it was 12.5% which is approximately 3 times more than the benchmark. Unsatisfactory indicators of the level of inflation in the application of inflation targeting regime in Russia, primarily driven negative external situation affecting the Russian economy. Sanctions, falling energy prices and a number of other problems and lead our country to high volatility in all markets that, in turn, actively accelerates inflation.
Still it should not be forgotten that the transition to the inflation-targeting regime requires a number of conditions and certain reforms. Despite the fact that Russia officially switched to the inflation-targeting regime, a number of conditions is not implemented or implemented just partially.
Использованные источники: 1. Басс А.Б., Бураков Д.В., Удалищев Д.П. Тенденция развития банковской системы России: монография. М.: Русайнс. - 2015. - 216 с;
2. Басс А.Б. Инфляционные процессы в России в условиях кризиса /А.Б. Басс// Экономика. Бизнес. Банки - 2016. - №2(15). - С. 82-92;
3. Басс А.Б. Таргетирование инфляции в России и цены на продукцию естественных монополий /А.Б. Басс/ Банковские услуги. - 2015. - №5. - с. 1013;
4. Бураков Д.В. Управление цикличностью движения кредита: монография. М.:Русайнс. - 2015. - 288 с.;
5. Финансы, деньги и кредит: учебник и практикум для академического бакалавриата под ред. Буракова Д.В. - М:Юрайт. - 2016. - 329 с.
Алымкулов М.С., к.филос.н. доцент, начальник кафедры общественно-политических дисциплин
полковник милиции Академия МВД КР им. генерал-майора Э. Алиева Кыргызская Республика, г. Бишкек МИФ КАК ОТРАЖЕНИЯ ПРОБЛЕМЫ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ Аннотация: В данной статье проводится анализ мифологического донаучного восприятия в контексте проблемы безопасности. Первые наивные элементы безопасности с учетом все возрастающего человеческого познания окружающего мира. Роль мифологии и безопасности в становлении человечества. Наивно-материалистическое представление мифологии. Концепции мифологического сознания.
Ключевые слова: миф, проблема безопасности, человеческое развитие, концепции мифологического сознания, элементы безопасности, домонотеистический человек, мифосознание, функции мифов.
Безопасность развивалась исторически: борьба за выживание, за природные ресурсы, за сферы влияния все они представляли собой лишь малую часть глобальной истории в цепи различных форм безопасности. Феномен безопасности не утрачивал своей актуальности исследования, несмотря на быстроменяющиеся содержание и смысл и формы ее проявлении. Отсюда, человек испокон веков отражал мир деятельно, исходя из потребностей своего существования. Защита определяла новые детерминанты и закономерности, как своего, так и природного бытия.
На ранних стадиях общественного человеческого развития, например в мифах, мы встречаем первые наивные элементы безопасности, когда человека беспокоило неспособность выделить себя из окружающей природной среды. Одушевление предметов космоса, боязнь и незнание причинно-следственных связей, а равно и цикличность природных явлений сводилось к неуверенности существования. В особенности эсхатологические мифы «карали» людей, целые народы (Всемирный потоп и др.) за нарушение морали, преступлений, т.е. выступали за неотвратимость наказания. Всякое незнание законов природы, связывалось с активным воздействием внешних нечеловеческих сил в пространственно-временном континууме.
