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Максимов Н.А. студент Бураков Д.В., к.э.н. научный руководитель, старший преподаватель департамент «Финансовые рынки и банки» Финансовый университет при Правительстве РФ
Россия, г. Москва СОВЕРШЕНСТВОВАНИЕ МОНЕТАРНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОГО БАНКА: ВЫЗОВЫ СОВРЕМЕННОСТИ
Данная работа посвящена исследованию денежно-кредитной политики Банка России с целью определить дальнейшее направление ее осуществления для обеспечения экономического роста России.
Ключевые слова: экономический рост, денежная масса, ставка процента, Центральный Банк РФ, стимулирующая политика банк, концентрация, конкуренция, кредит, эффективность.
Maksimov N.A., student Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation,
Moscow Scientific supervisor: Burakov D.V., PhD in Economics, Senior Lecturer, Department "Financial Markets and Banks", Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation,
Moscow
IMPROVING MONETARY POLICY OF CENTRAL BANK: MODERN CHALLENGES
This paper is dedicated to the research ofmonetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. It is necessary to determine its further direction in order to achieve economic growth of our country.
Keywords: economic growth, money supply, interest rate, Central Bank of the Russian Federation, stimulating policy.
In order to more clearly understand the specific challenges that stand before the Bank of Russia one should describe the situation in the field which the change in the key rate affects to a greater extent. This is the credit market.
On the question of why we successfully grew in the period from 2011 to 2014, despite the slowdown in the last two years, I would give the following answer: let's look at the dynamics of the main indicators of the banking sector. For most of them there was growth from 2011 to 2013, in 2014 - slowdown, and in 2015 - a decline. It turns out that we have evolved through growing lending. Actually, this is a good idea, recently mentioned by Glazev, not to mention the fact that the loans boost economic growth. Regarding the retail loan portfolio, from 2011 to 2014 it has grown from 7.3 trillion. rubles to 11.3 trillion. rubles, and in 2015, fell to 10.7 trillion. rubles. What are the causes? We finally got the growth of debt load of the population, which did not appear so clearly, when the revenues were growing up,
or at least were stable. So live the US. But in 2015, the growth of real incomes of the population observed prior to 2014 gave way to fall. The unemployment rate, including hidden, had begun to grow because inflation and the devaluation of the ruble increased costs of current consumption. [1]
According to Rosstat, the average income per capita for the first half of 2015 amounted to approximately 31 thousand rubles. The income of nearly half the population (45 %) is below one-third and equals to 19 thousand rubles. The stagnation of the economy led to a sharp rise in poverty. In the first half of 2015 on incomes below the subsistence minimum lived 21.7 million Russians (15 %). In the same period in 2014, the poverty line was 13 % of the citizens (their number increased by 2,8 million people).
This primarily increases the non-payments and late payments. The industry average according for 2015 equals the loss of 17.62 % of the total retail portfolio, which is higher than in the period 2008-2009, when the figure was in a dense close to 10%, but never overstepped the mark. In some banks these figures are more critical, such as, for example, in the Bank "Russian standard" it is close to 30 %, and at "Tinkoff Bank" is 21 %, according to the newspaper "Vedomosti". Experts say that the current state of the loans portfolio in 2012 - early 2014, when no one really did expect such a strong reduction of incomes of the population. The total volume of overdue retail debts in mid-September 2015, equals to about 1.04 trillion. rubles.
Speaking of corporate lending, as it also contributes its share in the total loan portfolio, it should be noted that corporate lending feels really better and since 2012 the upward trend, and in 2015 reached the level of index at 30.2 trillion rubles. [2,3]
As a result, banks deduct funds for the creation of reserves, particularly foreign exchange transactions, as a high proportion of defaults. In terms of sanctions, banks lost the opportunity of funding abroad for a long time, and the volume of foreign loans by banks declined from 167,3 billion at the end of 2013 to 126,5 billion in July of 2015. Also, due to growing discontent and mistrust of the population. According to the Bureau, only 56 % of the population now trust banks, and in 2013, this indicator was at 80%.
As a result, what is the Central Bank doing? Mega slowly but surely, step by step upped the rate. And here comes December 2014, a well-known new year's rally for the Russian currency, when the dollar reached the mark of 80 rubles per US dollar. From mid-summer 2014, the price of oil "Brent and USD/RUB have exactly opposite directions. If one looks at the charts from July to December 2014, each month the price of crude oil closed lower and the dollar against the ruble in the black. Closer to the new year, volume of the market is starting to go, it becomes more subtle, and it's time for speculators to test new lows of the ruble, which happened in 2014 and just recently in 2015. In order to offset the panic, Russia's Central Bank sharply raises (on 16 December 2014) interest rate from 10.5 % to 17 %. Then gradually it decreases during the period from February to August 2015 and naively thinks that the exchange rate of the national currency, which is so important for keeping inflation goes behind the decisions on the key rate. In fact, if one
compares the stock chart of oil price and the dynamics of the key interest rate from late 2014 to 2015, we can see a pattern. From February to may 2015, the oil is not effortlessly lifted from the lows of the end of 2014 nearly 70 dollars per barrel. The ruble strengthened to 50 rubles, and in these circumstances, the Central Bank successfully reduces the rate. Note that it began to do so immediately after the price of oil went up. In the summer of 2015, the news get in oil quotations, they fly down, and the Russian currency followed them. The Bank of Russia no longer made the decisions about changing the key rate. Maybe it have become clear that this is a pointless exercise to adjust one of their tools under the dynamics of stock prices. It is better to look at the economic growth of the national economy, and to create a policy that will give it a positive trend, and everything else, including actively targeting inflation and the exchange rate of the national currency will gradually come to normal. [4, 5]
In the end, the banking sector in addition to its internal problems has, shall we say, high interest rates, making refinancing from the Central Banks more expensive. Amid draining monetary base, which, according to S. Glazyev, the Bank of Russia is ready to reduce by 29% over 4 years, and the already mentioned high rates of shrinking liquidity in the banking sector that reduces the amount of the loan. In terms of under monetized economy a monetary contraction leads to a drop in production and investment, which in turn accelerates inflation. If one imagines a graph of supply and demand, this situation shifts the curve to the left up past that, as has been said, reduces the amount of goods and pushes prices up. Further vicious circle. The manufacturer wants to try to somehow reduce prices in order to sell the product, and the first thing he goes is to decrease the number of workers or lower wages. It all leads to falling incomes, which is what we see in reality and so people buy less goods, which will further hit sales.
We must not forget that the economy is a living organism where everything is interconnected.
Использованные источники:
1. Басс А.Б., Бураков Д.В., Удалищев Д.П. Тенденция развития банковской системы России: монография. М.: Русайнс. - 2015. - 216 с;
2. Басс А.Б. Анализ нормативов ликвидности российских системных банков /А.Б. Басс// Экономика и предпринимательство. - 2016. - №3-2. - С. 603-607;
3. Басс А.Б. Современны проблемы качества кредитного портфеля /А.Б. Басс/ Инновационная наука. - 2016. - №4-1. - с. 42-46;
4.Бураков Д.В. Крах теории денежного рынка. Эмпирические аномалии и теоретические иллюзии /Д.В. Бураков// Вестник Института экономики РАН. - 2016. - № 1. - с. 29-47;
5. Финансы, деньги и кредит: учебник и практикум для академического бакалавриата под ред. Буракова Д.В. - М:Юрайт. - 2016. - 329 с.
