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APPLICATION OF THE EXPERT-QUALIMETRIC METHOD FOR THE SELECTION OF THE OPTIMAL VARIANT FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF SATELLITE COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS JUSTIFICATION
Dmitry V. Kuzovkov,
Moscow Technical University of Communications and Informatics, Moscow, Russia, [email protected]
Keywords: expert-qualimetric method,
variant of construction, satellite communication system,
efficiency.
Under the impact of many external and internal factors on the development of satellite communications, the known methods of valuing the effectiveness of investment projects are insufficient. In the article it is proposed to select the most effective version of satellite communication based on the expert-qualimetric method.
Expert-qualimetric method is a set of methods and techniques for experts to quantify the effectiveness of innovations, innovation projects or solutions for a certain system of procedures and the selection of the most effective options from a set of alternatives. It consists of calculating the coefficient of efficiency of constructing satellite communication systems based on the expert way of measuring particular performance indicators in scores and integrating them in quantitative terms.
To justify the possibility of using the expert-qualimetric method for choosing the optimal variant of building satellite communication systems, two options for forming the shape of satellite communication systems were considered. The purpose of applying the expert-qualimetric method to solving the problem of choosing the optimal variant of building satellite communication systems is based on the fact that the proposed versions of the satellite constellation are based on promising innovative solutions for the construction and operation of spacecraft and ground stations that are not yet on the market and correspond to the first stages of the life cycle of innovation, when there is no quantitative information about the results and consequences of their implementation. The analysis of the factors that influence the choice of the satellite communication system options showed the possibility of dividing the factors into two generalized groups based on the performance-cost characteristic and the possibility of construction of a model for quantifying the effectiveness of the considered options for the satellite communication image construction. The results of the efficiency evaluation showed that both options for satellite communications are effective. At the same time, the effectiveness of the second version of the SCS (1,062) construction is higher than the first variant (1,058) due to the higher level of market potential, the growth of the users' demand for progressive multiservices and economic growth due to the influence of the development of the satellite infrastructure on the development of natural resources in the Arctic shelf zone at a higher level of innovation in space and ground segments and user equipment in accordance with the criteria of EQM, as well as risks.
Information about authors:
Kuzovkov Dmitry Valentinovich, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Communication Economics of the Moscow Technical University of Communications and Informatics, Moscow, Russia
Для цитирования:
Кузовков Д.В. Применение экспертно-квалиметрического метода для обоснования выбора оптимального варианта построения систем спутниковой связи // T-Comm: Телекоммуникации и транспорт. 2017. Том 11. №6. С. 55-58.
For citation:
Kuzovkov D.V. (2017). Application of the expert-qualimetric method for the selection of the optimal variant for the construction of satellite communication systems justification. T-Comm, vol. 11, no.6, pр. 55-58.
T-Comm Vol.11. #6-2017
Satellite communication has the most important advantages needed to build large-scale telecommunications networks. Firstly, with its help, it is possible to quickly create a network infrastructure covering a large territory and not dependent on the availability or condition of terrestrial communication channels. Secondly, the use of modern satellite technologies makes it possible to deliver any kinds of information to an almost unlimited number of consumers. These advantages provide interactive multimedia satellite networks with high attractiveness for public administration and business organizations with territorially distributed infrastructure [3,4,8].
For the scientific justification for the selection of the optimal variant of satellite communication system building, taking into account the socioeconomic results in the long term, qualitative methods of measuring efficiency on the basis of a combination of parameters taking into account the synergetic effect based on expert-qualimetric and integral methods are needed 11, 5, 7J. The usage of the expert-qualimetric method (EQM) to justillcate the choice of the most effective innovations in satellite communications using spacecraft in a highly elliptical orbit from a variety of alternatives has shown very reliable results [2 j.
For justification of the possibility of application of the ex-pert-quali Ileal ion method for choosing the optimal variant of building satellite communication systems, two options of solving the problem of satellite communication systems were considered. The purpose of the application of the expert-qualification method for solving the problems of the optimal variant of building satellite communication systems is based on the fact that the proposed versions of the satellite constellation are based on the development of new and future solutions for spacecraft and ground stations that have not yet been introduced to the market and are not intended for the life-cycle stage of Innovations, when there is no quantitative information on the results and consequences of their implementation.
The options differ in the composition of the communication subsystems, customer servicc areas, the cost of satellite groupings and technical characteristics, and the innovative nature of multiservice services, the use of technologies, equipment, spacecraft and terrestrial communication systems, and the speed of information transfer. Obtain an unambiguous answer about the effectiveness of the considered options for building a SCS taking into account many factors and conditions of implementation based on the current methodology for measuring the effectiveness of investment projects, therefore, a complex application of methodical methods for constructing integral indicators, expert technologies and the qualimetric method.
The systematization of the factors influencing the choice of the satellite communication system options indicates the possibility of their separation according to the principle of effects / barriers - the productive and cost indicators by analogy with the criteria for the effectiveness of innovations [3, 4, 8].
An analysis of the factors that influence the choice of the satellite communication system options showed the possibility of dividing the factors into two generalized groups based on the performance-cost characteristic. Among the effective indicators of the effectiveness of the satellite grouping variants are: the prospects of multiservice satellite communication services for all categories of users, including the mobile segment; The growth of Internet access in remote and hard-to-reach regions of Russia; Full coverage of satellite communication services throughout
Russia, including the Arctic Ocean and the Arctic Zone, and all categories of users; The impact of the introduction of SCS services on the development of the Arctic zone and the Russian Federation, the development of natural resources, the development of production and the growth of the national economy (gross domestic product - GDP),
The nature and size of the cost-effectiveness indicators of the satellite grouping options are determined by the degree of innovation of space vehicles, ground infrastructure, equipment and technologies; Financial opportunities for implementing SCS options at the expense of public and private investments; Risks of realizability of space and ground segments, equipment and functioning of satellite grouping variants in general, as well as external (world) and internal risks creating uncertainty and instability of social and economic situation in current and prospective periods.
Thus, the possibility of a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of SCS options on the basis of EQM on the generalizing indicators of the productive and cost components is theoretically confirmed. The system of private indicators proposed by the author for a complex evaluation of the effectiveness of the options for constructing a SCS for the main types of innovative services, taking into account the territorial feature, reflects the parameters of the effective and cost components of the effectiveness of the options for building satellite communications.
The effective component of the integrated assessment of the effectiveness of the construction of the SCS includes the following private indicators: Рпот ~ the market potential of satellite communications and broadcasting services in different territorial coverage of users; Усгтр - growth in demand for satellite communication services due to the needs of state customers in the territory of the Russian Federation and the Arctic zone, accessibility of communication services, Internet and information resources and reducing the digital divide in the territory of the Russian Federation and in the Arctic zone; Уэкон ~ economic growth due to the impact of the introduction of satellite communications services on the development of natural resources, the development of production and GDP growth in Russia, as well as improvement the level of integration of national and international business in the development of satellite communication systems.
The cost component of the integrated assessment of the effectiveness of the construction of the SCS includes the following particular indicators: Уин нов - the level of innovation in equipment and satellite communication systems; Риск ~ external and internal risks of the feasibility of the SCS option and its space and ground infrastructure, emergence of extraordinary events, as well as economic risks; Спроизв - the cost of production of satellite communication serv ices, determined by the unit cost of the system and the cost of services.
The modernized formula for an integrated assessment of the effectiveness of SCS options for the productive and cost components based on EQM has the form:
I r _ 1*11111 + VIII' + ^ 'ЖОП .
*ффяар£СС ,, p .
'iiHiitm 'иск L¡ironib Based on the developed system of integrated assessment of the effectiveness of the SCS options, a group of specialists consisting of 12 people carried out expert evaluation on a set of private performance indicators. Summary results of the integrated assessment of the effectiveness of the SCS options in terms of the productive and cost components are presented in the table.
In accordance with the efficiency criteria for innovation in the expert-qual ¡metric method (innovations with an efficiency coefficient of more than 0.5 are recognized as effective) for high efficiency coefficients, both options for constructing satellite communications are effective [2, 5, 6, 7]. At the same time, the effectiveness of the second version of the SCS (1,062) construction is higher than the first variant {1,058) due to the higher level of market potential, the growth of the users' demand for progressive multiservices and economic growth due to the influence of the development of the satellite infrastructure on the development of natural resources in the Arctic shelf zone at a higher level of innovation in space and ground segments and user equipment in accordance with the criteria of EQM, as well as risks.
Table
Consolidated results of the integrated assessment of the effectiveness of options for building satellite communications systems
№ Partial measure of a generalized estimation Average expert scores (score)
Variant 1 Variant 2
Efficient component 5,3 S 5,26
1 Market potential 4.57 4,79
2 Growth in users demand 6,43 6,65
3 Economic growth 5,13 5,57
Cost component 5,09 4.95
1 Level of innovation in equipment and systems 6,46 6,59
2 External and internal risks 5,38 6,15
3 Cost of production of services 6,90 5,77
Coefficient of effectiveness of the SCS option 1,058 1,062
The results of a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the two options for building SCS on the basis of EQM not only confirmed the advisability of applying qualitative methods for assessing efficiency based on quantifiable results in the form of coefficients, but also the possibility of choosing a more effectives version of the innovation project and disclosing the reasons for the achieved level of efficiency.
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ПРИМЕНЕНИЕ ЭКСПЕРТНО-КВАЛИМЕТРИЧЕСКОГО МЕТОДА ДЛЯ ОБОСНОВАНИЯ ВЫБОРА ОПТИМАЛЬНОГО ВАРИАНТА ПОСТРОЕНИЯ СИСТЕМ СПУТНИКОВОЙ СВЯЗИ
Кузовков Дмитрий Валентинович, Московский технический университет связи и информатики, Москва, Россия,
Aннотация
В условиях воздействия множества внешних и внутренних факторов на развитие спутниковой связи известные методы стоимостной оценки эффективности инвестиционных проектов недостаточны. Предлагается осуществить выбор наиболее эффективного варианта построения спутниковой связи на основе экспертно-квалиметрического метода. Экспертно-квалиметрический метод представляет собой совокупность способов и приемов получения экспертами количественной оценки эффективности инноваций, инновационных проектов или решений по определенной системе процедур и выбора наиболее эффективных вариантов из совокупности альтернатив. Он состоит в расчете коэффициента эффективности построения систем спутниковой связи на основе экспертного способа измерения частных показателей эффективности в баллах и их интегрировании в количественном выражении. Для обоснования возможности применения экспертно-квалиметрического метода для выбора оптимального варианта построения систем спутниковой связи были рассмотрены два варианта формирования облика систем спутниковой связи. Цель применения экспертно-квалиметрического метода к решению задачи выбора оптимального варианта построения систем спутниковой связи обоснована тем, что предлагаемые варианты спутниковой группировки базируются на перспективных инновационных решениях построения и функционирования космических аппаратов и наземных станций, которые еще не выведены на рынок и соответствуют первым этапам жизненного цикла инноваций, когда отсутствует количественная информация о результатах и последствиях их внедрения.
Анализ факторов, оказывающих влияние на выбор вариантов системы спутниковой связи, показал возможность разделения факторов на две обобщенные группы по результативно-затратному признаку и возможность построения модели для количественной оценки эффективности рассматриваемых вариантов построения облика спутниковой связи. Результаты оценки эффективности показали, что оба варианта построения спутниковой связи являются эффективными. При этом эффективность второго варианта построения ССС (1,062) выше первого варианта (1,058) за счет более высокого уровня рыночного потенциала, роста спроса пользователей на прогрессивные мультиуслуги и экономического роста вследствие влияния развития спутниковой инфраструктуры на освоение природных ресурсов в зоне Арктического шельфа при более высоком уровне инновационности космического и наземного сегментов и абонентского оборудования в соответствии с критериями ЭКМ, а также рисков.
Ключевые слова: экспертно-квалиметрический метод, вариант построения, система спутниковой связи, эффективность. Литература
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Информация об авторе:
Кузовков Дмитрий Валентинович, кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры "Экономика связи" Московского технического университета связи и информатики, Россия, Москва
