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JEL: H63, F34
DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2021_4_49
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1 SЬ'u CC 2018-2019 pp. щЬшш^ш1 pJnL2Ьh duuhl opЬlßlЬph hnт4шölЬp 2-S, 6: CC ^hlulu-lЬph lu^upupnLpjul «CC щЬШШ1|Ш1 pJnL2Ьh mшpЬ^шl gnLgшlh2lЬp» ungulg m4JШ[lЬph puqu, https://minfin.am/hy/page/_hy_chart_/
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Cum R-bjbhwpph U R-nqn^h'7 Jb| 2b^h hw2^n^ ^U Jh2hbhg pwpöp Jw-|wp^.w| nLbbgn| bp|pbbph (emerging market economies) ^.b^pmJ, bpp wp-mwfhb ^wpmf/<LU hwpwpbpw|gnLpjnLbQ hwubnLJ t 60%-h, <LU mw-pb|wb w6p b^wqmJ t 2%-n^, hu| ^bmw|wb ^wpmp/<LU. hwpwpbpw|-gnLpjwb w^b[h pwpöp Jw|wp^.w|bbph ^b^fnLJ qpwbg^nLJ bb qbwöh w^bih pwpöp mbJ^bp: 1900-2009 pp. dwJwbw^whwm^wöh m^jw|bbph hhJwb 4pw R-wjbwpph U R-nqn^h nLumJbwuhpnLpjwb wp^jnLbfbbpp ^wummJ bb, np wj^huh 24 bp|ph ^b^fnLJ hpw^wb <LU Jh2hb w6h mbJ^p U Jb^hw-bwb mwmwb^bL bb 4-4.5% Jh2w|wjpnLJ, bpp ^bmw|wb ^wpmf/<LU hw-pwpbpw^gnLpjmbQ 90%-hg gwöp t b|b[, hu| bpp ^bp2hbu qbpwqwbgb t 90%-q, w^w hpw^wb <LU w6h mbJ^h Jb^hwbwb |wqJb[ t 2.9%8: bpp ^b-mw|wb ^wpmf/<LU hwpwpbpw|gnLpjnLbQ 0-30% 2bJhg qbpwqwbgnLJ t 90%-q, w^w qbwöh Jb^hwbwb w^bih fwb |p|bw^wm|4nLJ t' ^wnbw[n4 16% (7%-hg gwöp Jw|wp^.w|h hwJbJwmnLpjwJp)9:
QbbqQ U QhwbqQ Lwmhbw|wb UJbph|wjh U Mwphpjwb w^wqwbh 21 bp|ph 1992-2006 pp. m^jw|bbph hhJwb ^pw ^wpqb[ bb, np wju mwpw-öw2p2wbh ^wpwqwjmJ ^wpmf/<LU hwpwpbpw|gnLpjwb o^mhJw[ Jw-|wp^.w|Q 55.89%-b t hwJwp^nLJ, hb^Q b2wbw|nLJ t, np wju 2bJQ qbpw-qwbgb|nL ^.b^pmJ ^bp2hbu pwgwuwpwp t wq^.mJ mbmbuw|wb w6h ^pw10: 4mb U wjLf11 Jb| 2b^h hw2^n^ ^U Jh2hbhg pwpöp Jw|wp^.w| nLbbgnT 10 bpL|ph 2005-2015 pp. m^jw|bbph nLunLJbwuhpnLpjwb wpqjnLbpnLJ bqpw-|wgpb[ bb, np wj^ bp|pbbph ^wpwqwjmJ |bbmpnbw|wb Iwnw^wpmpjwb
6 Sb'u Panizza U., Presbitero A. F., Public debt and economic growth in advanced economies: A survey. Working paper 78, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences, 2013, t2 3:
7 Sb'u Reinhart Carmen M., Rogoff Kenneth S., 2010a. Debt and growth revisited. MPRA Paper 24376. University Library of Munich, Germany, t2 2-3:
8 Sb'u Reinhart Carmen M., Rogoff Kenneth S., 2010b. Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100 (2), t2 576, DOI: 10.1257/aer.100.2.573
9 Sb'u bnLjb mbiTQ:
10 Sb'u Chang T., Chiang G. (2011). Regime-switching effects of debt on real GDP per capita the case of Latin American and Caribbean countries. Economic Modelling, 28(6), t2 2408,
doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2011.06.020
11 Sb'u Vu Y. H., Nguyen N. T., Nguyen T. T. T., Pham A. T. L. (2019). The threshold effect of government's external debt on economic growth in emerging countries. Studies in Computational Intelligence. 809, t2 447-448, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-04200-4_32
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H-wnL^Q U ^n^h4hhu|hh 31 qwpqwgnq. bp|phbph 1970-2005 pp. m^jwLhbph nLunl Jhw u h p n Lpj wh hhJwh ^pw ^wpqb bh, np wprnwphh ^wpmfh wóh wungwg^nLJ t mhmbuw|wh w6h mbJ^bph ^wh^w^bgJwh hbs, pwjg, JhUhnLjh dwJwhw|, ^wpmph u^wuwp|Jwhh nL^T^T öw^ubpQ ^bh hwhqbghnLJ «^.mpuJ^Jwh t$b|mh» (crowding-out), hh^Q h2whw|nLJ t, np pwpöp t ^wpmfQ hbp^pnLJhbph Jhgngn^ u^wuwp|bLnL hw^whw|whnL-pjnLhQ 12:
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12 Sb'u Daud S. N. M., Podivinsky J. M. (2012), Revisiting the role of external debt in economic growth of developing countries. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 13(5), t2 989, doi:10.3846/16111699.2012.701224
13 Sb'u Akram N. (2016), Public debt and pro-poor economic growth evidence from South Asian countries. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 29(1), t2 751,
doi:10.1080/1331677x.2016.1197550
14 Sb'u hnLjh sbTQ, t2 751-752, 754:
15 Sb'u Presbítero A. F. (2012), Total public debt and growth in developing countries. The European Journal of Development Research, 24(4), t2 606, 617-618-626, doi:10.1057/ejdr.2011.62
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16 Sb'u Pattillo C. and Poirson H., Ricci L., 2004. What are the channels through which external debt affects growth? IMF Working Paper 04/15, Washington: International Monetary Fund, t2 4:
17 Sb'u hnLjh rnbi^p, t2 4, 6, 19:
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19 Sb'u Asteriou D., Pilbeam K., Pratiwi C. E. (2020). Public debt and economic growth: panel data evidence for Asian countries. Journal of Economics and Finance, t2 15, doi:10.1007/s12197-020-09515-7
20 Sb'u hnLjh sb|p, t2 16:
21 Sb'u Shahor T. (2018) The impact of public debt on economic growth in the Israeli economy, Israel Affairs, 24:2, t2 254-258, DOI: 10.1080/13537121.2018.1429547
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22 Sb'u bnLjb mb|Q, t2 254:
23 Sb'u Panizza U., Presbitero A. F., Public debt and economic growth in advanced economies: A survey. Working paper 78, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences, 2013, t2 3-4:
24 Sb'u Shahor T., b2^. rn2^., t2 254-255:
25 Sb'u bnLjb mb|Q, t2 256:
26 Sb'u Eberhardt M., Presbitero A. F. (2015). Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity. Journal of International Economics,97(1), 45-58. t2 46, doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.04.005
27 Reinhart Carmen M., Rogoff Kenneth S., 2010a. Debt and growth revisited. MPRA Paper 24376. University Library of Munich, Germany, t2 2: Reinhart Carmen M., Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010b. Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review, 100 (2): t2 573-577, DOI: 10.1257/aer.100.2.573
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lшpqшLnpnLJbЬpQ»38: Uju щшpшqшJnLJ, CC pJnL2Ь^ hш2Lhb фЬЬшЬ-uшLnpLn| 1шщ^тш[ öш^uЬpQ 2021 p. Uu ^ЬЬ qЬpшqшbg^ pJnL2Ь^ цш1ш-unLpiQ, ^b^b шpÖшbшqpLЬg 2020 p., ^ul J^2bшdшJlЬт hштLшönLJ uЬp^ ^n^g^ó^ pшpЬ|шLJшb U ЬlшJnLтbЬp^ шLЬ|шgJшb J^ngn[ (тbтЬuшlшb ш6п[ щшjJшbшLnpLшö) 2026 p. CC 4шпшLшpnLpjшb щшpтf/CLU hшpшpЬpшlgnLpJnLbQ шlblшLLnLJ t ^pöb^ 60%-^g цш-lшu39:
UтшgLnLJ t, np, 2021 p. hшJЬJштnLpJшJp, J^2bшdшJlЬт hштLш-ômJ pJnL2Ь^g nL||[n| 1шц^тш[ öш^uЬpQ lqЬpшqшbgЬb lшJ шпbLшqb hшLшuшp lL^bЬЬ pJnL2Ь^ щшlшunLpфb: bpЬ шл öpшqpЬpQ ф^bшbuшLnp-[ЬЬ цЬтш1шЬ щшpтf^ шLЬ|шgJшb бшbшцшphnL, шцш, qus UuтЬp^nL^ U rnjing,40 J^2ngbЬpQ ^sf t тц[ЬЬ !jb öpшqpЬp^b, npnbf шцшqш тbтЬuшlшb шб^ тЬuшbl|nLb^g pшpöp шpг.JnLbшLЬтnLpJnLb nLbЬb U lbцшuтЬb ш[Ьф pшpöp тbтЬuшlшb шб^ тЬJщЬp^ шцшhnLJшbQ, шд n^ pЬ ш]Ь öpшqpЬp^b, npnbf |ш[ J2шlLшö ^ЬЬ Ь|Ь| ulqpbшlшb фnL[nLJ, U npnbg b^!usnLJQ тbтЬuшlшb шб^Ь pшLшlшb^b gшöp JшlшpгшlnLJ t:
35 S^u CC ф|^bшbubЬp|^ bu^upupnLpjnLb, CC 4шпшLшpnLpJшb 2021 pLulub|i pJnL2ЬтшJ|^b nL|bpâ - pugumpuq|ip, bp., 2021, t2 90:
36 Stfu CC opЬbßQ «ттш1шЬ цшpтEh Jшuhb» шп 26.05.2008 p., CO-78-L, CC^S 2008.06.25/39(629), hn|[. 627, 5:
37 S^u CC opЬbßQ «CC pJnL2ЬтшJ^b hшJшlшpq^ Jшu^b» шп 24.06.1997 p., CO-137, CC^S 1997.08.11/18, hnirLuô 21:
38 SЬ'u CC ф^bшbubЬp^ bш^шpшpnLpJnLb, CC 4шпшLшpnLpJшb 2021 pLulub|i pJnL2ЬтшJ^b nL|ЬpÖ - pugumpuq|ip, bp., 2021, t2 94-95:
39 S^u bnLjb тЬ|Q, t2 95-96:
40 S^u Asteriou D., Pilbeam K., Pratiwi C. E., b2[. Ш2^., t2 16:
&KbU"bU"bbP 59
ßmpqmgn^ U Jh2hg pmpöp blmJmmhbph Jmlmprml mhbgn^ bplphb-phh mnh^n^ rn[jmLhbph nLumJhmuhpnLpjmh mprjnLhfnLJ lmpb|h t bqpm-hmhqb[, np ^bmmlmh ^mpmf/<LU. hmpmpbpmlgmpjmh Jnm 90% [hhb|nL rçb^fnLJ t 2bJp hmJmp[nLJ [bphh, U Jhh mjr 2bJhh hmuhb|p [bp2hhhu m6p pmgmumlmh mqrbgnLpjnLh t nLhbhnLJ mhmbumlmh m6h [pm41: hul hh [b-pmpbpnLJ t Jh2mlmjfhh, nph rçb^fnLJ ^mpmfh m6p pmgmumpmp t mqrçmJ mhmbumlmh m6h [pm, m^m lmpb|h t bhpm^pb[, np umnphh 2bJ t hmJmp-i[nlJ 33-35%-Q, hhJf phr.nLhb|n[ 4mh U mj|ng,42 ^mmh|njh U mj|ng43 nLunLJ-hmuhpnLpjrnhhbpp, hul 90% 2bJp qbpmqmhgb|nL rçb^fnLJ rm lhmJmp[h «^mpmfh n^ mprh qnmh» (debt irrelevance zone), ^brnm^mh ^mpmfh hb-smqm m6h mqrbgnLpjnLhp mhmbumlmh m6h [pm Irmnhm n^ ImpUnp44: hul ^brnm^mh ^mpmfhh mnh^n^ mhnpn2nLpjmh mbumhljmhhg gmhlm|h l^|_hhh, np Mmnm[wpnLpjnLhp hmöm^mlh ^n^n^h hmplbph ^pnLjfm^m^b-pp lmJ [bpmhmjh pjnLgbh öm^ubpp45:
Ch^hmhrnp mnJmJp, « mhmbumlmh m6h t hhmpm[npnLpjnLh mm|nL m^mhn[b|nL hmplmjhh JnLSfbp, nph mprjnLhfnLJ hhmpm[np lihhh u^m-umplb « Mmnm[wpnLpjmh ^mpmfp, U nph hbmUmhfn[ « Ibhmpnhm-lmh lmnm[wpnLpjmh ^mpmf/<LU U hmm^m^bu « Mmnm[wpnLpjmh mp-mmfhh ^mpmf/<LU hmpmpbpmlgnLpjmhhbpp llp6mm[bh: <mlmnml r^b^fnLJ « Mmnm[wpnLpjnLhp ^d[mpnLpjnLhhbp Irnhbhm' u^mumplbm hmm^m^bu mpmmfhh ^mpmfp, nph hbmUmhfn[ [mrnmqnLjh ugbhmph rb^fnLJ ^mpnrç. t ^mpmfmjhh öqhmdmJ mpÖmhmqp[b|; <w2lh mnhb|n[ mj[ hb^hhm^hbph qhmhmmmlmhhbpp' -|bubhup U -nnLup46 hbplmjmgpb[ bh, np ^mpmfmjhh öqhmdmJh mqrbgnLpjnLhp mhmbunLpjmh hpmlmh hmm[wöh [pm, h mmppbpnLpjmh mj[ ^hhmhum^mh öqhmdmJbph mqrbgnLpjmh, lm-pnT t m[b[h Jbô LhhbL, U <LU mhlnLJp, ph^hmhmp mnJmJp, Jbl mmph mhg ImqJnLJ t 3-5%, hul 8 mmph mhg1 6-12%:
<mJmÖmjh <. U[bmhujmhh U mj|ng47 Impôhfh phpmghl hm2[h ^m^m-unLprh ^hhmhum[npJmh pbnp hhJhmlmhnLJ phlmô t Jmuhm[np hmrn[möh [pm, nph t[ «ImmmplmJ t Jmuhm[np hmrn[möh ^mpmfh InLmmlJmh Jh-2ngn[, hh^h hhfhhh hnyh^bu [rnmhqm[np bpUnyp t Jmuhm[np hmrn[môh U pmh^bph hm2[b^2hnhbph [wmpmpmgJmh mbumhljrnhhg»: <brnUmpmp' bpb phpmgh^ hm2lh ^m^munLprh ^hhmhum[npnLJp ^mrnmp[nLJ t ^ mnUm-pmjhh pmh^bph ^n^Jhg hbpqpm[lnT ommpbp^pjm [mp^bph Jh2ngn[, m^m
41 Sb'u Presbitero A. F., h2[.
42 Sb'u Vu Y. H., Nguyen N. T., Nguyen T. T. T., Pham A. T. L., h2[.
43 Sb'u Pattillo C. and Poirson H., Ricci L., h2[. W2^.:
44 Sb'u Presbitero A. F., h2[.
45 Sb'u Arsic M., Mladenovic Z., Nojkovic A. (2019). Debt uncertainty and economic growth in emerging European economies: Some Empirical Evidence. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, t2 18-19. doi:10.1080/1540496x.2019.1700364
46 Sb'u Claessens Stijn and Kose Ayhan M. (2013). Financial crises: Explanations, types, and implications, IMF Working Paper No. 13/28, The International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.: United States, t2 29:
47 Sb'u U^brnhujmb <., 4p^q.npjmb, U., Umpqujmb <., Phpmgh^ hw2lh ^mjnLhnLpjmh qhmhmmJmh JnmbgnLJhbpp CmjmummhnLJ, w2^wmwhgwj|ih ^mummpnLTP 08/12-01, « ^bhmpnhm^mh pwhl|, bp. , 2012, t2 83:
^ш ш4Ь|шghnLd t mbmЬuпLpJшb шд hшmLшöbЬph шpmш£hb чшpm£Q: Uju ЧшpшqшJПLJ, шpmшfh^ 2пLЬpпL чшJJшbшфpLшö (hшJш2^шphшJhb mbmЬuпLpJшb nЬgЬuhш, ^U hшJшLшpшLh hЬm |шц[ш6), Lшpпrç t шpöш-bшqpфL bЬpphb чшhшb2шpLh U шpmшhшbJшb öшLшLbЬph ^pбшmпLd, hb^b t[ бb2ПLJbЬp t qnpö^nL « шpdпLJph фш, npb t[ Lшpпrç t шqrç.ЬL t Jшu-bшфp QbLЬpпLpJПLbbЬph LnnJhg [^pg^ô LшpLЬph фpшrç.шpÖЬLhпLpJшb фш (ш^hпLuшLh, hшm^шцЬu шpmшpdпLJpп4 mpшJшrç.pLшö ^wp^ph рш-bшLh шб): Uju pшgшuшLшb qшpqшgпLJbЬpQ Lшpпrç ЬЬ LшmшqпLJb ugЬbш-ph rç^gmJ шpdпLpшJh^, hb^u ^шЦ pшbLшJhb бqbшd■шJh цштбшп ^шп-Ьш^ Т-ш t[ Lшpпrç t шqrç.ЬL « ЧшnшLшpпLpJшb, umшböbшö чшpmшфpпL-PJПLbbЬpQ (шpmшhшbJшb, bЬpJпLÖJшb, mpшbuфЬpmbЬph LpбшmJшb h^ mUшb£пL pJПL2Ь фп^шbgфrç шbпLrçдшLh U т^дшф hшpLЬph LpбшmJшJp ЧШJJшbшфpLшö) uщшuшp^Ь|nL L|шpп^_ПLpJшb фш: hu| QbpшghL hш2ф ^пpшgпrç шbhшLшuшpшL2nпLpJшb hЬmUшb£пL шqqшJhb шpdпLJph шpdЬ-qpLпLdQ Lшpпrç t п.d■4шpшghЬL шpmш£hb чшpm£h uцшuшpLпLdQ U JшpпL-JQ (hшmLшцЬu, Ьpp шpmш£hb ЦЬШШ|ШЬ цшpmf/<LU hшpшpЬpшLgпL-pjmbQ pш4шLш^h^ JЬö t), h^b t[ Lшpпrç t hшbqЬgbЬL чшpm£ШJhb бqbш-d^Jh:
bqpm^mgmpjnLb: « ЧшnшLшpпLpJПLbQ, Ьш^шЬ 2G2G p. шpÖшbшqpLшö mbmЬuшLшb шbLпLJQ, фпpÖПLJ tp LpбшmЬL цьшш|шь цшpmf/<LU hш-pшpЬpшLgпLpJПL^Q: Чшb^шmЬuфLJ tp, пp 2G26 p. LшnшLшpпLpJшb цшpmf/<LU hшpшpЬpшLgпLpjПL^Q ^h qЬpшqшbgh 6g%-q, U mbmЬuшLшb шбQ Jh2^шdшJLЬm hшm4шöпLJ LhшbqЬgbh ш^ hшpшpЬpшLgпLpJшb LpбшmJшbQ, npb, hp hЬpphb, L^чшumh hшpLшJhb ЬLшJпLmbЬph шбhb, hшLшnшL rç^gmJ, LшmшqпLJb ugЬbшpпL, Lшpпrç t чшpm£ШJhb бqbшd■шJ шpÖшbшqpфL, ЬpЬ « Чшпш[[шp n Lpj n Lb q ^Lшpппшbш uцшuшpLЬL hp umшböbшö чшpmшфpпLpJПLbbЬpQ, hшmLшцЬu шpmш£hb цшpmfh Lmp^öfn^.: UjnLu LnnJhg' шpmш£hb 2пLЬpпL ^ш^ш^ш^^^^, bЬp£hb Чшhшb2шpLh U шpmшhшbJшb öш4ш|hЬph LpбшmпLJ Lшpпrç t шpöшbш-qp^L, hb^b t[ бb2ПLJbЬp Lшpпrç t qnpöшrç.pЬL « шpdпLJph фш: ^ш Lшpпrç t шq^ЬL Jшubшфp QbLЬpпLpJПLbbЬph LЬpgpшö LшpLЬph LЬpшrç.шpÖЬLhпLpJшb фш (шbhпLuШLh, hшmLшцЬu шpmшpdпLJpп4 mpшJшrç.pLшö LшpLЬph рш-bшLh шб), U pшgшuшLшb qшpqшgпLJbЬpQ Lшpпrç ЬЬ LшmшqпLJb ugЬbшph г^ЬцрnLJ шpdпLpшJhb, hb^u bшU pшbLшJhb бqbшdшJh щшшбшп ^шп-bшL, npb tL, hp hЬpphb, Lшq^h ^^ Чшnш4шpпLpJшb, umшböbшö цшpmш-L[пpпLpJПLbbЬpQ (шpmшhшbJшb, bЬpJпLÖJшb, mpшbuфЬpmbЬph LpбшmJшb hЬmUшbfп4 pJПL2Ь фn^шbgLn^ шbпL^^шLh U ПL^^шLh hшpLЬph Lpбшm-JшJp цш]JшbшLпpLшö) uцшuшpLЬLПL Lшpп^ПLpJшb фш: hu| QbpшghL hш2Lh ^пpшgп^ шbhшLшuшpшL2nпLpJшb hЬmUшbfпL шqqшJhb шpdпLJph шpdЬqpLпLJQ Lшpn^ t ^^LшpшgbЬL шpmшfhb цшpmfh uцшuшpLпLJQ U JшpпLJQ (hшmLшцЬu, Ьpp шpmшfhb цьшш|шь цшpmf/<LU hшpшpЬpшL-gnLpjnLbQ pшLшLшbhb JЬö t), hb^b tL Lшpпп. t hшbqЬgbЬL цшpmfШJhb бqbшdшJh:
UjnLu Ln^Jhg' LшчhmШL bЬp^pпLJbЬpQ (цшpmfШJhb Jh2пgbЬph 2bnp-hhL hpшLшbшgLп^) цЬтр t nL^rç^b ш]Ь öpшqpЬphb, npnbf LbчшumЬb шLЬLh pшpöp mbmЬuшLшb шбh mЬJцЬph шчшhпLJшbQ, ШJL n^ pЬ Ш]Ь
bhLULULbP 61
öpшqpЬphb, npnbf |ш[ J2шlLшö ^ЬЬ, U npnbg bцшumnLJQ mbmЬuшlшb шб^Ь pшLшlшb^b gшöp JшlшpгшlnLJ t:
9-pшlшbnLpJшb шlbшplh h^Jшb [^ш ^p^h t ЬqpшhшbqЬL, np, Qb|-hrnbrnp шпJшJp, qшpqшgn| U JЬl 2b^h hш2LnL Jh2hbhg pшpöp ЬlшJmh Jшlшpгшl nLbЬgn| ЬplpbЬph щшpшqшJnLJ цЬтш1шЬ ^rnpsf/CLU hш-pшpЬpшlgnLpJшb Jns 90%-h rh^frnJ 2ЬJQ ^pn^ t hшJшpLЬL [^phb, U Jhb шл 2ЬJhb JnmЬbшLQ ^p2hbhu шбQ pшgшuшlшb шqг.ЬgnLpJnLb t пьь-bnLJ mbmЬuшlшb шбh [яш, hul usnphb 2ЬJ ^pn^ t hrnbr^u qшL 33-35%-q, Jhb^ 90%-q qЬpшqшbgЬLnL r^frnJ |ш lhшJшpLh «^rnpsfh n^ шpгh qnsh»:
Oqmmqnpó^mó qpm^mbmpjmù
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https://www.arlis.am/DocumentView.aspx7docidH50728
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9. CC 44 «CLU oqmuxiqnpônLJQ (hhJbшlшb бш^шш^Ь pш|шгph^-bbpnL)» mшpblшb шпgшbg mL|ШLbbph pшqш, https://www.armstat.am/am/?nid=202
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АННА МАКАРЯН
Научный сотрудник Института экономики им. М. Котаняна НАН РА, кандидат экономических наук
АЛЬБЕРТ АЙРАПЕТЯН
Старший исследователь исследовательского центра «Амберд» АГЭУ, ассистент кафедры международных экономических отношений АГЭУ, кандидат экономических наук
Пороговые показатели государственного долга: зарубежные исследования и армянская реальность.- В
данной статье на основе обзора литературы была предпринята попытка выяснить, какие пороги соотношения госдолга к ВВП могут считаться предельными, в случае превышения которых последние могут негативно повлиять на реальный ВВП в развивающихся странах и странах с уровнем дохода на душу населения выше среднего. Авторы приходят к заключению, что в основном приблизительно 90%-ый порог соотношения госдолга к ВВП может считаться верхним порогом в развивающихся странах и странах с уровнем дохода выше среднего на душу населения, до этого порога дальнейший рост соотношения госдолга к ВВП может отрицательно повлиять на экономический рост, а нижний порог может составить 33-35%, тогда как в случае превышения 90%-го порога это будет считаться «иррелевантной зоной долга».
Ключевые слова: государственный долг, соотношение долга к ВВП, предельный порог, иррелевантная зона долга, долговой кризис. JEL: H63, F34
DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2021_4_49 ANNA MAKARYAN
Researcher Associate of M. Kotanyan Institute of Economics National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia, PhD in Economics
ALBERT HAYRAPETYAN
Senior Researcher in "Amberd" Research Center of ASUE,
Assistant Professor of the Chair of International Economic Relations of ASUE,
PhD in Economics
Public Debt Thresholds: Overseas Studies and the Armenian Reality.- Based on the literature review, an attempt was made to figure out the possible thresholds of public debt-to-GDP ratio beyond which it starts negatively affecting the real GDP growth in the case of developing nations and emerging market economies. Based on the reviwed literature, the authors
conclude that, in general, the debt-to-GDP ratio amounting to about 90% could be considered the upper threshold in the case of developing nations and emerging market economies. Furthermore, beyond lower threshold of public debt-to-GDP ratio, possibly accounting for 33-35% and before reaching the upper threshold, the further increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio negatively affects the economic growth. Meanwhile, the further increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio beyond the upper threshold would be within "debt irrelevance zone".
Keywords: public debt, debt-to-GDP ratio, threshold, debt irrelevance zone, debt crisis. JEL: H63, F34
DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2021_4_49
