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JEL: E21, O11
DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2021_3_7
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1 Sb'u Rubin D., Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies. Journal ofEducational Psychology, Vol. 66, No. 5, 1974, t2 688-701:
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2 Kaldor N., Alternative Theories of Distribution. The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 23, No. 2, 1955-1956, tg 83-100:
3 Sb'u Solow R. M., A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Nr 70, No. 1, Feb., 1956, tg 65-94:
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h. Uw[gp (Saltz I.S.), oqmwqnp&b|n4 u^w[hbp^ Ó2qpmJwh thqb[ - 9-pbjh-gbph Jn^b[p, 4bp[nL6b[ t ^hwjn^nLpjrnhhbph L mhmbuw^wh wóh JhgL ^n^-^w^wónLpjmhp bppnp^ w2^wph^ mwuhjnp bp^phbpmJ4, np^buqh urnmqh hbrnLjw[ ^wp^w&hbpp. <LU wóh w^h pwpóp mbJ^bpp hwhqbghnLJ bh hbpfhh ^hwjn^nLpjmhhbph JbówgJwhp, b^wJmmhbph wóh pwpóp mbJ^b-pp pwpÓpwghmJ bh ^hwjn^nLpjmhhbph Jw^wp^w^p L hbpqpw^mJ w^h 2ws omwpbp^pjw ^hwjn^nLpjrnhhbp: 4bp|nL&nLpjwh wp^jmhfhbpp gnLjg bh m^bL, np nLunLJhwu^p^wó bp^phbphg hhhnLJ mhmbuw^wh wóp hbpfhh ^hwjn^nLpjmhhbph JbówgJwh ^wmówn t hwh^huwgbL, hu^ bp^mumJ w-^wgnLg^bL t ^bpLnLÓ^nT. ^n^n^w^whhbph JhgL bp^n^Jwhh ^wmównw-^whmpjwh L|w^bph qnjnLpjnLhp:
U. R-nJp (Romm A.), oqmwqnp&bLn^ ^b^snpwjhh u^wLhbph Ó2qpmJwti Jn^bLp (Johansen VECM), nLunLJhwuhpb t ^jnLu^uwj^h U^ph^wjmJ ^hwjn^nL-pjnLhhbph L mhmbuw^wh wóh JhgL ^w^h nL^nLpjmhhbpp 1946-1992 pp. dwJwhw^whwrn^wónLJ: U'wuhw^npw^bu1 nLumJhwuhp^bL t wJpnqgw^wh Jwuhw^np ^hwjn^nLpjnLhhbph Jw^wp^w^h ^n^wq^bgnLpjmhp hbp^.pmJ-hbph L mhmbuw^wh w6h JhgL, pwgwhwjrn^b t, np Jwuhw^np ^hwjn^nL-pjnLhhbph Jw^wp^w^h nLhh nL^w^h L whnL^w^h (Jwuhw^np hbp^.pmJhb-ph Jhgngn^) wq^bgnLpjrnh mhmbuw^wh w6h ^pw: Uj^ wq^bgmpjwh wu-mhówhp ^wjJwhw^np^wó t hpwg4bLhmpjwh uwhJwhw^w^mpjwJp: Lw bqpw^wgpbL t hwL, np mhmbuw^wh w6p ^.pw^wh wq^bgnLpjmh nLhh Jwu-hw^np hbp^pnLJhbph ^pw5:
U. ^wphpgho^LnLh L U. LwpwLhLwh (Katircioglu S., Naraliyeva A.) 9-pbjhgb-ph pbush L hhmbqp^wó Jbpn^hbph oqmwqnp&JwJp ^bpLnL&b bh ^n^-^w^wónLpjmhhbpp H_wqw^urnwhnLJ hbpfhh ^hwjn^nLpjrnhhbph, ornwp-bp^pjw nL^^w^h hbp^pnLJhbph L mhmbuw^wh wóh JhgL (1993-2002 pp. dwJwhw^whwrn^wónLJ): Lpwhg hbmwqnmnLpjnLhhbph wp^jmhfhbpp ^^w-jnLJ bh, np n_wqw^umwhnLJ mLw^wh dwJwhw^whwrn^w&nLJ qnjnLpjnLh nLhh Jhw^n^Jwhh ^pw^wh ^n^^w^^wónLpjnLh hbpfhh ^hwjn^nLpjrnhhbph L mhmbuw^wh w6h JhgL6:
4 Sb'u Saltz I.S., An Examination of the Causal Relationship between Savings and Growth in the Third World. Journal of Economics and Finance, 23, 1999, tg 90-98:
5 Sb'u Romm A.T., The Relationship Between Saving and Growth in South Africa: A Time Series Analysis, South Africa Journal of Economics, Vol. 73, 2005, tg 171-189:
6 Sb'u Katircioglu S., Naraliyeva A., Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Savings and Economic Growth in Kazakhstan: Evidence from Co-Integration and Causality Tests, Investment Management and Financial Innovations, Vol. 3(2), 2006, tg 34-45:
ft. UnhwhQ7 (Mohan R.), oqmwqnpöbLn[ ^wmöwnw^wh ^w^bph ftpbjh-gbph pbumQ, 4bp[nLÖb[ t mhmbuw^wh qwpqwgJwh mwppbp Jw^wp^w^-hbpn[ 25 bp^phbph 4 ^Jpbph mhmbuw^wh w6h L ^hwjn^nLpjmhhbph JhgL ^n^w^[wönLpjnLhQ 1960-2001 pp. dwJwhw^whwm[wönLJ: Uj^ hbmwqn-rnmpjwh wp^jmhfhbpQ Jhwh2whw^ ^thh L gnLjg m[bghh, np nLunLJhwuhp-[wö bp^phbphg rnwuhbpbpmJ mhmbuw^wh w6q b^b[ t ^hwjn^nLpjmhhbph JböwgJwh ^wrnöwnQ1 ftpbjhgbph pbush hJwumn[: wp^jmhfhb-
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Uh2sw[Q (Misztal P.), oqrnwqnpöb[n[ hwJwhhmbqpJwh, hhsbqpJwh L ^wmöwnw^wh ^w^h pbumbp, nLunLJhwuhpb t ^hwjn^nLpjrnhhbph L mhmbuw^wh w6h JhgL ^w^Q 34 qwpqwgwö, 150 qwpqwgn^ L whgnLJwjhh mhmbunLpjwJp bp^phbph rnbuwh^jrnhhg: Up^jnLhfhbpQ hwumwmbghh hw-Jw^wnh hbpfhh ^hwjn^mpjnLhhbph L hwJw^wnh hbpfhh wp^jmhfh JhgL Jhw^n^Jwhh ^wmöwnw^wh ^w^h wn^wjnLpjmhh hh^bu qwpqwgwö, wjh^bu t[ qwpqwgn^ L whgnLJwjhh bp^phbpmJ, hwL hw^wnw^ ^w^h pw-gw^wjmpjmhQ8:
ft. Lwgwpqw^bh, U. fthT-Q L U. föbuwhQ (Najarzadeh R., Reed M. & Tasan M.) nLumJhwuhpb[ bh hpwhnLJ ^hwjn^nLpjrnhhbph L Qh^hwhnLp nL n^ hw[pwjhh mhmbuw^wh w6h JhgL ^n^w^wönLpjnLhQ1 1972-2010 pp. m[|w[hbph [bp[nLÖnLpjwh hwJwp oqrnwqnpöb[n[ w[mnnbqpbuhnh pw2^-Jwh Lwqh Jn^b[Q9: <bmwqnmnLpjwh wp^jmhfhbpQ gnLjg bh rn[b[, np mhmb-uw^wh w6h [pw ^hwjn^nLpjnLhhbph wq^bgnLpjnLhQ ^pw^wh t nL h2whw-^w[h: Shrnbuw^wh w6h bp^nL mbuw^hbpQ hnyh^bu ^pw^wh nL h2whw^w[h wq^bgnLpjnLh nLhbh ^hwjn^nLpjmhhbph [pw: Pwgh ^pwhhg, wp^jmhfhbpQ hhwpw[npnLpjnLh bh rn[b[ bqpwhwhqb[nL, np qnjnLpjnLh nLhh bp^wpwdwJ-^bm ^wmöwnw^wh ^w^ ^hwjn^nLpjrnhhbph L mhmbuw^wh w6h JhgL, L np wj^ hwpwpbpnLpjnLhhbpQ bp^n^Jwhh bh:
U. Qwh^hnh, 4bjQ L 3. 3nLwh2bh (Chandio A., Wei F., Yuansheng J.), oqmwqnpöb|n[ hwJwhhmbqpJwh w[mnnbqpbuh[ pw2^[wö Lwqh (ARDL) JnmbgnLJQ, nLunLJhwuhpbL bh 1977-2013 pp. dwJwhw^whwm[wönLJ ^w-^humwhh ^hwjn^nLpjnLhhbph L mhmbuw^wh w6h JhgL ^n^w^[wönL-
7 Sb'u Mohan R., Causal Relationship between Savings and Economic Growth in Countries with Different Income Levels, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 5, Nr 3, 2006, tg 1-12:
8 Sb'u Misztal P., The relationship between savings and economic growth in countries with different level of economic development. E-Finance, 7(2), 2011, tg 17-29:
9 Sb'u Najarzadeh R., Reed M. & Tasan M., Relationship between Savings and Economic Growth: The Case For Iran. Journal of International Business and Economics, Vol. 2, No. 4, December 2014, tg 107-124:
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^nhwdb| Uwjb| UpnL t|.-UbnL|h (Mohamed Sayed Abou El-Seoud)11 hb-mwqnmnLpjwh hqwrnw^h t b|b[ nLunLdhwuhpbf wpijnp Ö2dwphm t mhmbuwlwh w6h hnpiwuwlwh mbunLpjnLhp Pwhpbjhh' np^bu pwg mhmbunL-pjwh hwdwp: Oqmwqnpöbm^ hwdwhhmbqpdwh, ^blmnpwjhh u^w|hbph Ö2qpsdwh dnmbgnLdhbpp L ^pbjhgbph pbump' hw nLunLdhwuhpb t 19992014 pp. dwdwhwlwhwm^wömd Pwhpbjhh mhmbuwlwh w6h L mhwjhh mhmbunLpjnLhhbph ^hwjn|nLpjnLhhbph dhgL ^n^lw^w&nLpjnLhp: föb^bm hwdwhhmbqpnLdp gnLjg t m^b bplwpwdwdlbm ^n^lw^w&nLpjmh wj| bplnL ^n^n^wlwhhbph dhgL, pwgwhwjm^b t mhmbuwlwh w6h L ^hwjn-inLpjnLhhbph dhgL dhwln|dwhh nL||nLpjwdp ^wmöwnwlwhnLpjwh ^w^^ qnjnLpjnLhp, hh^p hw^wunLd t mhmbuwlwh w6h hnpiwuwlwh mbunLpjwhp, pus nph' ^hwjn|nLpjnLhhbph bh mhmbuwlwh w6h ^wmöwn: Uju^hun^ qpwlwhnLpjwh hwdwnnm wlhwplp pnLj[ t mw^u bqpw^wghb[, np ^hwjn-inLpjnLhhbph L mhmbuwlwh w6h dhgL ^n^lw^w&nLpjwh mumdhwu^-pnLpjwh hwdwp mwppbp hb|hhwlhbp lhpwnb[ bh mwppbp dbpn^wpwhw-lwh dnmbgnLdhbp, mwppbp bh b|b[ phmpwhfh dbönLpjmhhbpp L ^hwjn|nL-pjnLhhbph mbuwlhbpp, hh^bu hwL bplphbph ^dpw^npdwh hwmlwhh2-hbpp, hh^n^ t[ ^wjdwhw^np^wö' mwppbp^nLd bh hbmwqnmnLpjnLhhbph wp-IjnLhfhbph nL bqpwhwhqnLdhbpp:
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10 Sb'u Chandio A., Wei F., Yuansheng J., Role of Savings in Economic Growth of Pakistan. Asian Economic and Social Society, Volume 5, Issue 12, 2015, tg 243-251:
11 Sb'u Mohamed Sayed Abou El-Seoud, The Casual Relationship between Household Savings and Economic Growth in Bahrain. Journal of Islamic Financial Studies, 2 (1), June, 2016, tg 13-26:
12 Sb'u -Rbjbu S.U\, 2pwi^wönLpjwh, mnl|nuh L i^nqhi phi^hwhrnp mbunLpjnLh: bp., «Shqpwh Ubö», 2006, tg 101:
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13 Sb'u Solow R. M., l2[. W2^.:
14 Sb'u Granger C.W.J., Essays in Econometrics: The Collected Papers of Clive W.J. Granger. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001:
15 Sb'u Engle R.F. and Granger C.W.J., Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, Vol. 55, No. 2, Mar., 1987, tg 251-276:
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1990-1999 pp. <<-md |mqdbL t -3.5%, 2000-2009 pp.' 4.2%, 20102019 pp.' 4.3%, hb^p b2mbm^m[h gm&p t mbgnLdmjhb mbmbunLpjmdp bm^-L|hb ^nphp^mjhb bp|pbbph L Mbbmpnbm|mb b^pn^mjh pbmp^mS 8 bp|pbbph dh2hb gnLgmbh2bbphg (bm^|hb ^nphp^mjhb bp|pbbp' 17.6%, 19.9%, 17.3%, Mbbmpnbm|mb b^pn^m' 20.6%, 20.03%, 25.2%)17: <LU-h b|mmdmdp « hmdm^mnb bbpfhb ^bmjn^nLpjmbbbpp 1991-2019 pp. bqb[ bb 2mm ^npp' bdmb mbmbunLpjnLbbbph hmdbdmmnLpjmdp: Uju^bu ophbm| « hmdm^mnb bbpfhb ^bmjn^nLpjnLbbbph dh2hb dm|mp^m|p (<LU %)
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16 Sb'u Granger C. W. J., b2^. W2^., t2 431:
17 Sb'u World Development Indicators (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDS.TOTL.ZS):
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19 New World Bank country classifications by income level: 2020-2021// https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata^new-world-bank-country-classifications-income-level-2020-2021
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20 sb'u Fuller W. A., Introduction to Statistical Time Series. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1996, t2 373:
21 U|pjnLpQ' hb|hhmlh hw24wplhbpQ:
* Uju àшйшbш|шJ|b 2шpfß usшg|nbшp г}шpâbb[m hшúшp I||pшnф[ t lpшppbpnLpJnLbbbp|
[nqшp|pd| dbpnqp: ** Ь2ШЬШ^Ш[! 11% Iplsl^^b шpàbf| qb^gnLd: *** Ь2ШЬШ^Ш[! 15% Iplsl^^b шpàbf| qb^gnLd: GDP -b b GDS -b шnшbg фnфnfanLpJnLbbbp| 2шpfbpb bb: d_GDP -b b d_GDS -b шпш$>!Ь lpшppbpnLpJnLbbbp| 2шpfbpb bb:
Ъ^шш^ тЬЬЬшщ^, np ЬplnL ^ш^^ш^ш^ 2шpfЬpQ ÖUшфn^nLpJnLЬ-^p^g hЬmn ЬplpЬЬp^ pn|np ^dpЬp^ hшdшp umшg^n^шp ЬЬ, шЬд1шдф[ t ftpЬJ^2Ьp^ рЬит, np^ шprç.JnLЬ£ЬЬpQ ^p^^g^mó ЬЬ шrçJnLuшl 3-nLJ:
Ц^тиш^ 3
9-pbjb£bp^ muipáiuniutyiuhnLpjiuh pbuipfi iupq.jnLbfbbpp2
Piupâp hliiudipn^ bptypbbp
e
- Ь СЫ - чштбшп t 5.3174 0.0297
СЫ - Ь - чштбшп t 0.77971 0.3805
Uh2hbhg piupdp hliudipn^ bptypbbp
- Ь СЫ - чштбшп t 0.2413 0.6276
СЫ - Ь СЪи - чштбшп t 0.7058 0.4088
Ufigfib hliudipn^ bplpbbp
СЪи - Ь СЪ1 - чштбшп t 5.1822 0.0316
СЪ1 - Ь СЪи - чштбшп t 8.8396 0.0064
Ufrgfrbfrg giuip hliudipn^ bptypbbp
СЪи - Ь СЪ1 - ^ чштбшп t 0.9236 0.3457
СЪ1 - Ь СЪи - чштбшп t 0.0084 0.9276
SiuAp hliudipn^ bplpbbp
СЪи - Ь СЪ1 - ^ чштбшп t 2.2238 0.1484
СЪ1 - Ь СЪи - чштбшп t 0.1043 0.7494
Ün^mj^U biß ¿rnbbgn^ bp^pbbp
СЪи - Ь СЪ1 - ^ чштбшп t 6.2818 0.0194
СЪ1 - Ь СЪи - чштбшп t 0.0223 0.8822
Uju^un^ prnpöp ЬlшJmn4, Ь^^чЬи ^шЦ 6П4Ш^Ь Ь[р ^nLЬЬgn^ ЬpЦpЪЬ-p^ ^dpЬpnLd <LU U СЪ1 ФП^^ШЧ 1-[ШônLpjnL^Q d^шlnrçdшЬ^ t. ^^pl-d■шdшЬшlшhшm4шönLd <LU hш4Ь|шбQ ЬщшитЬ[ t <Ъ1 dшlшprç.шl^ pшpÖpшgdшЬQ: Ьlшdmn4 ЬplpЬЬpnLd фn^lшч4шönLpJnLЬQ Ьpllnrçг
drnh^ t: иЬшдшб ^dpЬpnLd чшmбшnшlшЬnLpJшЬ фn^lшч4шönLpJnLЬ ^ pшgшhшJm4ЬL: UnLj^ hЬmшqnmnLpJшJp итшд^шб шprç.JnLЬ£ЬЬpQ npn2шl^n-pЬЬ hшumшm4nLJ ЬЬ ЬшU 2005 p4шlшЬ^Ь lшmшp4шö d^ hЬmшqnmnL-p^^3 шp^JnL^f^Ьpn4: Ц^тЬ^ чЬ^р t Ь1шт^ тЬЬЬш[, np ф-
mшpl4ЬL ЬЬ ЬlшdmшJ^Ь ^npu ^dpЬp^Ь чш^1ШЬП^ шпш^Й^^ ЬplpЬЬp^ (prnpöp Ьlшdmn4, 10 Ьpl^p, d^2h^hg prnpöp1 5, d^2h^hg дш^ 5, grnöp Ьlшdmn4, 5) 1960-2001 pp. d■шdшЬшlшhшm4шö^ mЦJШL^ЬpQ, d^rç^ unLjb hЬmшqnmnLpJшЬ dЬ2 oqmшqnpö4ЬL ЬЬ sЦJШL^Ьp:
^чЬи1 pшpöp Ьlшdmn4 10 ЬplpnLd ^4Q d^шlnrçdшЬ^ t Ь^Ь[: СЬ^. npnLd, 9-nLd т^тЬиш^ш^ шбЬ t Ь^Ь[ СЪ1 шб^ чш^бшп U d^rnjh U^Ьqш-
22 U^pjnLpQ1 ИЬфЬшЦп hш2фшpl|bЬpQ:
23 SЬ'u Mohan R., ш2^.:
iqnLpnLd t bqb[ hm|mnm|p' m6p b^mumb[ t mbmbum|mb m6hb: Uh2h-bhg pmpSp b|mdmn4 Hhmmp|4m& 5 bp|pbbpnLd ^mm6mnm|mbmpjmb |m-^p bqb[ t bp||n^dmbh: Uh2hbhg gm&p b|mdmn4 5 bp|pbbphg bpbfnLd |m-^h nL^nLpjmbp b^b[ t dhm|n^dmbh. m6p hmbqbgpb t m6hb,
dhb^^bn bp|nLunLd ^mm6mnm|mbnLpjnLbp ^h pmgmhmjm4b|; Sm&p b|m-dmn4 5 bp|pbbphg ^npumd pmgmhmjm4b t dhm|n^dmbh pb^ npnLd' bp|nLunLd <LU m6b t b^mumb[ m6hb, hu| dbmgm& bp|nLunLd' hm|m-
nm|p: Ub| bp|pnLd (<b^|mummb) ^mm6mnm|mbmpjmb ^h pmgm-
hmjm4b|;
Lm^fmb « m4jm[bbphb dmbpmqbhb mb^pm^mnbm[p, b^mmm|m-hmpdmp t nLunLdbmuhpb ^mm6mnm|mbmpjmb |m^bpp &n4mjhb b[f ^rnbb-gn^ pbmp4m& (b^pn^mjh L Mbbmpnbm|mb Uuhmjh bp|pbbph 2mpfhg) bp|pbbpnLd: UjbnLhbmL mb^pm^mpS |mp4h ^mjmummbhb L <mpm^mjhb Mn^^muh dbmgm& bp|nL bp|pbbphb' mmpm&m2p2mbmjhb hmdbdmmnLpjnLb-bbph hmdmp:
<mjmummbh, hb^bu m2^mphh ^npu mmubjm|hg m4b|h bp|pbbph mbmbunLpjnLbbbph 4pm b2mbm|m|h wq^bgnLpjrnb nLbh gmdmpn4 2p2m^m|-4m& LhbbLp |md &n4mjhb b[f ^nLbbbm|p: frn4mjhb b|f ^rnbbgn^ bp|ph |mp-qm4h^m|p hmdmp4nLd t ^n^pb^nm bp|ph pmpqm4m6dmb 6mbm^mphhb: <bnm4npmpjmbp L mb^mbfb mjb qnp&nbbbpb bb, npnbf mq^nLd bb mpmbu-^npmmjhb Sm^ubph 4pm: frn4mjhb b|f ^rnbbgn^ bp|pbbpp |npgbnLd bb hpbbg mpmmhmbdmb dpgm|gmjhb mnm4b|nLpjnLbbbpp: frn4mjhb b|f ^rnbb-gn^ m2^mphh 44 bp|pbbph db& dmub mqpmm t: Ump^|mjhb qmpqmgdmb hmdmp4nLd mdbbmgm&p 4mp|mb2n4 12 bp|pbbp ^rnbbb b|f H-b^h &n4, hu| 18-p qmb4nLd bb gm&p b|mdmn4 bp|pbbph ^dpmd24: UjH^huh bp|pbbph 2mpfnLd <mjmummbb mnmbSbmbnLd t bmL mmpmbghl bp|nL bp|pbbph hbm hmpmpbpnLpjnLbbbph pmgm|mjnLpjmdp |md bpmbg |n^dhg mLm|mb dmdm-bm| 2p2m^m|4m& Lhbb|n4, hb^p pmgmum|mb mq^bgnLpjnLb t nLbbbnLd mbmbunLpjmb |mnnLg4m&fh, hb^bu bmL dpgm|gmjhb hbmpm4npnLpjnLb-bbph qmpqmgdmb 4pm, b4mqbgbnLd t ^^U-b L mpmmhmbnLdhg b|mdnLm-bbpp: Qbmjm& mpmbu^npmh mb^bn|nqhm|mb qmpqmgdmbp, &n4mjhb b[f ^rnbbgn^ qmpqmgn^ bp|pbbpp hmdm2^mphmjhb 2nL|m ^nLpu qm|hu 2mpnL-bm|nLd bb hmb^h^b[ |mnnLg4m&pmjhb hhdbm^b^hpbbph: UpHjnLbfnLd' mjH bp|pbbpp qmpqmgdmb qnp&pbpmgnLd L mpmmfhb mnLmpnLd hbm bb dbnLd 6n4mjhb b|f rnbbgn^ hpbbg hmpLmb bp|pbbphg: Ujh mnnLdn4, tm|mb bb mmpmbghl hmpLmbbbphg |m^4m&nLpjmb hbmLjm[ |n^dbpp. m) |m^4m-SnLpjnLb hmpLmbbbph bbpm|mnnLg4m&fhg, p) |m^4m&nLpjnLb dh2umhdm-bmjhb fm^mpm|mb hmpmpbpnLpjnLbbbphg, q) |m^4m&nLpjnLb hmpLmbbbph ^m^m^nLpjnLbhg L |mjnLbnLpjnLbhg, h) |m^4m&nLpjnLb hmpLmbbbph 4mp-^mpmpm|mb ^pm|mh|mjhg25: Uju qnp&nbbbph hmdm^pnLpjnLbb mnm2mg-bnLd t hhdbm^b^hpbbph L qbpm|mjnLpjnLbbbph hm4mfm&nLbbp &n4mjhb b[f ^nLbbgn^ bp|pbbphg jnLpmpmb^jnLpnLd:
24 Sb'u Human Development Report 2020. UNDP, 2020, t2 345, 346:
25 Sb'u Faye M., McArthur J., Sachs J., Snow T., The Challenges Facing Landlocked Developing Countries//Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, 22 Jan 2007, t2 31-68:
Uju hlшmшnnLJhbphg Ь|ЬЬ|пЩ Ьщштш^ш^ bhf hшdшpЬL фmшplhL hшJш^шпh hbpfh^ ^^jnrçnLpjmhhbph U т^тЬиш^ш^ шб^ фn^шп^nLp-jmhhbpQ ôn^jh^ bf ^mhbgn^ bp^phbph ^JpmJ, npnLJ hbpшп4bL t 29 bpl^p. Jhшдшö 15 bp^phbph m4JШ|hbph шJpnrç2шlшh ^bh brçb[:
hh^bu bpUnLJ t ш^^иш^ 3-hg, ôn^jh^ b|f ^mhbgn^ QÙrnp^ô bp^phbph ^Jph' 1991-2019 pp. dшJшhшlшhшm4шöh фз^шд^шб hbph фш lшmшp4шö lnnb[^ghnh-nbq.pbuhnh ^bpinLÔmp^Jp
щшpqфL t, np hшJш^шпh ^^jnrçnLpjmhhbph U mhmbuшlшh шб^ JhgU qnjmpjmh тф ^ш^ш^ ^^^mönLpjnLh, h^h 1Цш]nLJ t фп^шд^ш-
jh 0.54 qnpöшlhдD: npnLJ, h^mh np ш^ ^JpmJ hbpшп-
^шб bh hbm^nphprçwjh^ 4 bp^phbp (Urç.ppb2шh, Р^шпти, Un|rç.n^, <ш-]шитш^), npnhg mhmbumpjnLhhbpQ n^ hb^^np шhдJШ|nLJ Jhшфp4шö bh brçb[ Jbl rnhmbunLpjnLhmJ, hu^ hbp^jmJ Ь^ПЩШ^ U Uuhшjh mшpшöш2p2ш^h bp^phbph ^JpmJ bh, npn2 шпnLJn4 hшJшrçpbLh bh' rçhmшpl4bL bh ш^ bplphbpmJ ^Цшб фnфn^шlшhhbph фn^шп^nLp-jmhhbpQ: U"hшd■шJшhшl, hщшmшlшhшpJшp t T-hm4b[ ^U ^шитшф дnLдш^h2^bph nLumJ^uhpnLpjnLÙQ, npn^ фnpö t шpфL шJpn^2шlш^шд-bb[nL ^U <шpш4шJh^ 4n^^uh mшpшöш2p2ш^h щшmlbpQ:
ОДшщшт^Ьр 7. ^vùшJnqmpJmùùЬp^ йш-ЦшрршЦ^ U СЬЦ г^^шй^^ш]^ iSfyU Цшщр ИрррЬршЪтй, 1991-2Q19 pp.
ОДшщшт^Ьр В. ^vùшJnqmpJmùùЬр^ йш-ЦшрршЦ^ U СЬЦ г^^шй^^ш]^ iSfyU Цшщр РЬ[шптитй, 1991-2Q19 pp.
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ÍLU^tjimi", % ib hj. ¿XU-fi
-Linear (tbhu. CbU-fi Vi
ОДшщшт^Ьр 1G. ^vùшJпqmpJmùùЬр^ йш-ЦшрршЦ^ U СЬЦ г^^шй^^ш]^ úfaU !шщр Я.ршифшЬтй, 1991-2Q19 pp.
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ОДшщшт^Ьр 11. tuhiujnqntpjnthhbpfr iSiutyiupqiutyfr U ChU lifeU tyiuiyp
Ciujiuusiuhnid, 1991-2019 pp.
bbpfhb ^^jn^nLpjnLhhhp^ Jш|шp^.ш|h L hшJшUшnb bbpfhb hш4b|ш6h ф^ш^^ш^ JhgL |nnb^ghnb |шцр Sn^mjhb
h|p ^mbbgn^ ^npu bp|pbbpmJ L 4pшumшbnLJ t ^бшцшт-
|bpbbp 7-11-mJ:
hb^bu bpLnLJ t q&шщшm|bp 9-hg, UnL^n^wjh щшpшqшJnLJ qnjnLpjnLb nLbh pшpЙp ршдшиш^ш^ (0.66), ^р mшppbp4пLJ
t n^ JhшJb JjnLu bpbf bp|pbbphg, ШJLL шд pшqJшph4. bp|pbbphg nL bp|pbb-ph [Jpbph Jhghb gnLgшbh2bbphg: Cum npn2 hbmшqnmnLpjnLbbbph, РЬ|ш-nnLunLJ fubiujn^nLpjnLbbbph Jш|шp^.ш|h [hus шb|nLJb hbpph^
t bqb[ <LU-mJ ищш^шЬ Jшubшpшd■bh ш6h hbs' 16.6
тп1|пиш^1| L|brnn4 (84% - 100.5%' 1998 р^ш1|ш1ф1|) 26: li^ppb2шbnLJ, Р^ш-nnLunLJ, 4pшumшbnLJ L «-mJ pшgшhшjm4bL bb ^ш^шЬ ^^bp bp|nL фnфnUш|шbbbph JhgL. |nnbuшghшJh qnp6ш|hgbbpр hшJшцшmшuUш-bшpшp ^qJb[ bb' 0.56, 0.02, 0.16, 0.13: <шт|шЬ2ш|шЬ t, np ^шитш^ L Sn^jhb b[f ^mbbgn^ <ШjШumшbh qnp6ш|hgbbpр qpbpb ЬпцЬш|шЬ bb: U.^ppb2шbh цшpшqшJnLJ, hш4шbшpшp, t bqb[ mbmbump^b |ш-
птд^ш&рр' tbbpqш|hpbbph Jb6 Jшubшpшdbnф Uju mbuш|bmhg ш^Ъф humш| щшm|bp |шpbф t итшЬш[' nLunLJbшuhpb|n4 U^ppb2шbh n^ Ьш^-pшqшqшJhb mbmbuш|шb ш6h L UbшJn^nLpjnLbbbph Jш|шp^ш|h JhgL фп^шщ^ш^р^ьр:
Фшumnpbb, npLt рb^hшbnLp ophbш^шфnLpjnLb qnjnLpjnLb ^mbh <шpш-^uijhb 4n^^uh bp|pbbph шnnLJn4, Jh |n^Jhg, hb^bu bшL ¿n^mjhb b|f ^mbbgn^ рbmp4ш6 4 bp|pmJ' JjnLu |n^Jhg: ЩЬ[ЪЬ, UnL^n^wjh L Pb|mnrnuh цшpшqшJnLJ umшg4bL t pшgшuш|шb hb^ hш|шunLJ t mbuш|шb L фnpЙшnш|шb hbmшqnmnLpjnLbbbph шp^jnLbfbbphb: Qbшjш6 ^шь, фnpЙ t шp4bL pшgшhшJmbLnL bp|nL фnфnUш|шbbbph JhgL щшm6шnш|шbnLpjnLbb рum ^pbjbgbph: <шpш4шJhb 4n^.^uh L ¿n^mjhb b[f ^mbbgn^ рbmp4ш6 bp-|nL bp|ph dшJшbш|шJhb 2шpfbph ADF pbumh шp^JnLbfbbpр bb ШQJnLuш| 4-nLJ:
26 Sb'u Ярочиньски М., Молдова в 1995-1999 гг.: макроэкономические и монетарные последствия фискальной несбалансированности. CASE - Центр социально-экономических исследований, Варшава, 2000, tg 14:
Ц^тиш^ 4
ADF [abuipft mpq.jnLbfbbpp2
HO. qnjnLpjnLb mbp ifbty ¡¡ршЦПр шр^шф, H1. qnjnLpjnLb ¿mbp tfbty ¡¡ршЦПр шрйшф
<iujiuuipiuh
I Фпфп^ш^шЬ 1 ADF I Ъ2шЬш^шфп1.^п1Ьц I
GDPd_GDP -3.033578
-7.868769 **
GDS d_GDS -1.390437
-9.502530 **
^prnuipuib
GDPd_GDP -2.189442 -3.628035 ***
GDS d_GDS -4.768379 -5.119585 **
U^pphguib
GDPd_GDP -3.188093 -3.659993 ***
GDS d_GDS -1.418660 -4.068543 ***
Pbimrnu
GDPd_GDP -1.752910 -5.572784 **
GDS d_GDS -2.988058 -4.580779 ***
ИПЩПЦШ
GDPd_GDP -.2.702612 -3.492972 ***
GDS d_GDS -.3.304379 -1.309544* *
* Ujusbq ipbubnLÛ bbf, np, lpшppbpnLpJnLbbbp[ i(bpgbb[ni¿, usшgfinbшpnLpJnLb[ Inp^nLd t,
hbsUшpшp' Ilbpgbbbg $фпфп^1ш02шpf[' шbhpшdb2snLpJшb qb^gnLdhшbb[nl lib! pfil ** Ь2шЬш^шф 15% Ipfiyifi^^b шpdbpfi qb^gnLl: *** Ь2шЬш^шф 15% Ipfiyifi^^b шpdbpfi qb^gnLl: GDP -b ä GDS -b шпшЬд фnфnfanLpJnLbbbpfi 2шpfbpb bb: d_GDP -b ä d_GDS -b шпшр^Ь lpшppbpnLpJnLbbbpfi 2шpfbpb bb:
UjbnLhbmU ^шmшp4ЬL t ^pbj^bph щштбшпш^шЬт^шЬ рЬит, nph шdфnф luprçjnL^pbbpQ hbp^^g^ô bh ш^тиш! 5-nLd:
Uju^un^ Qurn 9-pbjh2bph pbumh, « U <LU-h d^U ршдш-
hшJm4ЬL t dhшlnrçdшhh щштбшпш^ш^ ^шщ. CLfa dшlшprç.шlQ <LU hш-щштбшп t, U^ppЬ2шhnLd, Pb|mnnLunLd, Un[n.n^jnLd U ^шитш-hnLd <LU шб^ t ЬщшитЬ[ CLfa шб^: <ЬmUшpшp, rç.hmшpl4.шö ön^jh^ Ь|р ^rnhbgn^ 4 bplphbphg 4.bp2h^ bpbfh ^.b^pmd щштбшпш1шЬтр]шЬ 1ш-nL^^nLpjnL^Q hшdQh^nLd t bplphbph ш^ ^dph hшdшp итшд^шб шp-^.jnLhf^h (ш^^иш! 3), d^rçbn <шJшиmшhnLd ^шщ^ nL^rçnLpjnLÙQ hш^ш-пш^ t: 4n^.^uh mшpшöш2p2шhh bpbf bplphbphg bplnLunLd
(U^ppЬ2шh, ^шитш^) щштбшпш1шЬтр]шЬ ^шщ^ nL^rçnLpjnLÙQ hnLjhh t (<LU-h щшшбшп t), hull <шJшиmшhnLd, hш^шпш^Q:
27 U^pjnLpQ1 ИЬфЬшЬф hu24^plbbpQ:
UqjnLum^ 5
0-р^Ь2Ьр^ imuipáiuniuIiuhmpjiuh pbuipfi шрщшЬдЬЬрр28
Ц.шр!шЬЪЬр I F Ц^бш^шдрт^/тЬ I p-value
Ciujiuusiuh
CbU - b СЫ - h щштбшп t 0.5912 0.4495
СЪ! - b <LU - h щштбшп t -20.3598 0.0001
<LU - b СЪ! - h щштбшп t 9.8827 0.0044
СЪ! - b <LU - h щштбшп t 0.3921 0.5371
ирррк£шЬ
<LU - b СЫ - h щштбшп t 6.2818 0.0194
СЪ! - b diU - h щштбшп t 0.0224 0.8822
Pbpunniu
diU - b СЪ! - h щштбшп t 4.5898 0.0425
СЪ! - b diU - h щштбшп t 0.9677 0.3351
1п[рпЦш
CbU - b СЫ - h щштбшп t 4.3023 0.0490
СЪ! - b CbU - h щштбшп t 6.7126 0.0160
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ДАВИД ВАРДАНЯН
Аспирант кафедры финансов АГЭУ
Причинные связи между валовыми внутренними сбережениями и экономическим ростом.- В течение продолжительного времени сохраняется интерес разработчиков экономической политики и академических кругов к факторам, определяющим экономический рост и экономическое развитие, в частности, к взаимосвязи между сбережениями, инвес-тициямии и экономическим ростом. С точки зрения таргети-рования экономической политики, особенно важным является выявление характера и направления причино-следственных взаимосвязей этих переменных.
Цель исследования - с применением эконометрических методов выяснить, насколько неоклассическая теория роста, обусловленная взаимосвязанностью сбережений и экономического роста, верна для экономики Республики Армения, преодолевшей переходный период. В данной статье в контексте международных сопоставлений рассматриваются направления причинной связи между уровнем валовых внутренних сбережений и темпами экономического роста в Республике Армения за период 1990-2019 гг. с использованием временных рядов (с использованием базы данных индикаторов мирового развития). В частности, тест ко-интеграции показал, что в Армении существует долгосрочная корреляция между валовыми внутренними сбережениями и экономическим ростом, а тест Грейнджера выявил наличие односторонней причинной связи между двумя переменными - от валовых внутренних сбережений к экономическому росту, что согласуется с неоклассической теорией роста. Исследованы причинные связи между двумя переменными в группах стран с разным уровнем дохода (согласно классификации Всемирного банка за 2020 г.) и не имеющих выхода к морю, а также в странах Южного Кавказа. Результаты исследования автора, а также предыдущих исследований были использованы для проведения сравнительного анализа и выявления закономерностей.
Ключевые слова: валовые внутренние сбережения, валовый внутренный продукт, экономический рост, инвестиции, коинте-грация, тест Грейнджера на причинность. 1Б1_: Е21, 011
РО!: 10.52174/1829-028 0_2021 _3_7
DAVIT VARDANYAN
PhD Student at the Chair of Finance of ASUE
Causal Relationship Between Gross Domestic Savings and Economic Growth.- For a long time, policymakers and academics have been interested in the factors that determine economic growth and economic development, in particular, in the relationship between savings, investment and economic growth. From the point of view of targeting economic policy, it is especially important to identify the nature and direction of the causality of the relationship of these variables.
The aim of the study is to find out, using econometric methods, to what extent the neoclassical theory of growth, regarding the interconnection of savings and economic growth, is true for the economy of the Republic of Armenia, which has overcome the transition period. In this article, in the context of international comparisons, the directions of the causal relationship between the level of gross domestic savings and the rate of economic growth in the Republic of Armenia for the period 1990-2019 are discussed, using time series (from database of world development indicators). In particular, the co-integration test showed that in Armenia there is a long-term correlation between gross domestic savings and economic growth, and the Granger test revealed a one-way causal relationship between the two variables, fom gross domestic savings to economic growth, which is consistent with neo -classical theory of growth. The causality of the relationship between the two variables was investigated in groups of countries with different income levels (according to the World Bank's 2020 classification) and landlocked countries, as well as in the South Caucasus countries. The results of the author's research, as well as previous studies, were used to conduct a comparative analysis and to identify patterns.
Key words: gross domestic savings, gross domestic product, economic growth, investment, co-integration, Granger causality test. JEL: E21, O11
DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2021_3_7
