Economic recovery without public Debt? Shadow economy and “hidden capital” in Armenia Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

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Sbiu The Developing World Has an Alternative to Debt. Hernando de Soto, Jul 3, 2020, Project Syndicate.

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https://armstat.am/file/article/informal_sect_2010a. pdf

2. Hernando De Soto. The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else, 2000.

3. ILO, More than 60 per cent of the world's employed population are in the informal economy, 2018,

https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/ news/WCMS_627189/lang--en/index.htm

4. IMF Fiscal Monitor, April 2020. Chapter 2: IDEAS to Respond to Weaker Growth, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Is-sues/2020/04/06/fiscal-monitor-april-2020

5. Leandro Medina&Friedrich Schneider, Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?. IMF Working Papers, 2018, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/ Issues/2018/01/25/Shadow-Economies-Around-the-World-What-Did-We-Learn-0ver-the-Last-20-Years-45583

6. Richard M. Salsman, The Political Economy of Public Debt: Three Centuries of Theory and Evidence. 2017.

7. The Developing World Has an Alternative to Debt. Hernando de Soto, Jul 3, 2020, Project Syndicate,

https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/mon-etizing-dead-capital-in-developing-worlds-infor-mal-economy-by-hernando-de-soto-2020-07?barri-er=accesspaylog

Нарек КАРАПЕТЯН

Эксперт исследовательского центра «Амберд», АГЭУ,

аспирант

ФИНАНСОВАЯ СИСТЕМА

ВОССТАНОВЛЕНИЕ ЭКОНОМИКИ БЕЗ ГОСДОЛГА? ТЕНЕВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА И «СКРЫТЫЙ КАПИТАЛ» В АРМЕНИИ

Развивающиеся экономики не могут рассчитывать только на государственный долг для восстановления после шока из-за пандемии, особенно когда бремя долга уже является чрезмерным. Для Армении целесообразно стремиться раскрыть потенциал теневой экономики (которая оценивается в размере одной трети ВВП Армении) и скрытого капитала, что не только повысит потенциал государственного бюджета, но и возможность частного финансирования реального сектора - потенциал для «создания капитала». Автор доказывает упомянутую связь эмпирически и подчеркивает роль построения эффективной системы стимулов для сокращения теневой экономики в Армении.

Ключевые слова: кризис, право собственности, ненаблюдаемая экономика, финансовое посредничество, вывод экономики из тени

Narek KARAPETYAN

Expert at "Amberd" Research Center, ASUE,

PhD student

FINANCIAL SYSTEM

ECONOMIC RECOVERY WITHOUT PUBLIC DEBT? SHADOW ECONOMY AND "HIDDEN CAPITAL" IN ARMENIA

The developing economies can't only rely on public debt to recover from the shock caused by the pandemic, especially when they are already highly indebted. For Armenia it is proper to aim at unlocking the potential of shadow economy (which is estimated to be equal to one-third of Armenia's GDP) and "hidden capital", which not only would enhance the spending capacity of the state budget, but also the possibility of private financing of the real economy - or the potential to "create capital". Going forward, we emphasize the mentioned linkage empirically and highlight the role of building an effective system of incentives to reduce the shadow economy in Armenia.

Key words: crisis, property right, non-observed economy, financial intermediation,

"whitening" the economy