CC BY
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DOI 10.23947/2414-1143-2019-18-2-39-47 UDC 316.346
POPULATION EMPLOYMENT AS A DEVELOPMENT FACTOR OF THE SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN THE NORTHERN CAUCASUS REGIONS OF RUSSIA
© Alexander V. Dzhioev
Laboratory of Applied Sociology and Conflictology, Vladikavkaz, Russian Federation
The article examines the factors of the socio-demographic processes formation in the republics of the North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD) of the Russian Federation and identifies a significant demographic reserve of the macroregion. It is shown that the weak dynamics of supply in the labor market as a whole negatively affects the use of labor and the quality parameters of the migration flow, leading to the preservation of high tensions in the labor market and general unemployment. A number of proposals have been formulated for the growth of dynamic employment in the subjects of the NCFD. Moreover, the persistence of high unemployment is fraught with high social threats and conflict potential. For employment growth in the subjects of the NCFD, a number of proposals have been formulated: an increase in self-employment, which is possible, for example, in the framework of federal programs and the state program «Development of the NCFD», especially federal target programs; the creation of the all-zone tourist and recreational complexes "Arkhyz", "Veduchi" and "Elbrus-Bezengi", as well as the creation of a medical cluster in the Caucasian Mineral Waters; active development of small business support programs in the service sector, where at the beginning of 2019 more than half of the working population of the NCFD is actually employed, developing a tourism and recreation cluster in the NCFD, organization and implementation of the NCFD interregional youth employment programs by creating special youth employment centers that perform information, marketing, organizational, economic, educational, and financial and administrative functions in order to fully promote employment of the most initiative and motivated part of the population of the NCFD in the labor-poor regions of Russia.
Key words: North Caucasus Federal District, factors of population dynamics, natural population growth, migration, employment and unemployment dynamics, demand on the labor market.
[А.В. Джиоев Занятость населения как фактор развития социально-демографических процессов в республиках Северо-Кавказского федерального округа]
В статье исследованы факторы формирования социально-демографических процессов в республиках Северо-Кавказского федерального округа (СКФО) Российской Федерации и выявлен значительный демографический резерв макрорегиона. Показано, что слабая динамика предложения на рынке труда в целом негативно сказывается на использовании рабочей силы и качественных параметрах миграционного потока, ведет к сохранению высокого напряжения на рынке труда. А сохранение высокой безработицы таит в себе высокие социальные угрозы и конфликтогенность. Для роста занятости в субъектах СКФО РФ сформулирован ряд предложений: рост самозанятости, который возможен, например, в рамках федеральных программ и государственной программы «Развитие Северо-Кавказского федерального округа», особенно, федеральных целевых программ, направленных на социально-экономическое развитие каждого субъекта СКФО до 2025 года; активное развитие программ поддержки малого бизнеса в сфере услуг, где на начало 2019 года реально занято больше половины работающего населения Северного Кавказа, в рамках подпрограмм государственной программы «Развитие Северо-Кавказского федерального округа», направленных на реализацию инвестиционных проектов СКФО, развитие туристско-рекреационного кластера в Северо-Кавказском федеральном округе, создание всесезонных туристско-рекреационных комплексов «Архыз», «Ведучи» и «Эльбрус-Безенги», а также создание медицинского кластера в Кавказских Минеральных Водах; организация и реализация программ межрегиональной занятости молодежи СКФО путем создания специальных центров занятости молодежи, выполняющих информационную, маркетинговую, организационно-экономическую, образовательную и финансово-распорядительную функции с целью содействия занятости наиболее инициативной и мотивированной части населения СКФО в трудонедоста-точные регионы России.
Ключевые слова: Северо-Кавказский федеральный округ, факторы динамики численности населения, естественный прирост населения, миграция, динамика занятости и безработицы, спрос на рынке труда.
Alexander V. Dzhioev - junior researcher, Laboratory of Applied Sociology and Conflictology, Vladikavkaz Scientific Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladikavkaz, Russian Federation.
Джиоев Александр Валерьевич - младший научный сотрудник Лаборатории прикладной социологии и конфликтологии Владикавказского научного центра Российской академии наук, Владикавказ, Российская Федерация.
The system of social development factors is formed by economic, social, demographic, and national factors that are closely related and interdependent. That is, for example, labor mobility, and migration, the educational and vocational qualification structure of employees can be considered both as qualitative characteristics of social development, and as a productive result of the economic activity of society, and as a factor in socio-demographic processes. Scientific management of the development of society (including the development of population) in the coordinates of such a systematic approach involves a comprehensive consideration of the demographic factor in the development of a strategy for social development. At the same time, the activation of demographic processes in conditions of insufficient social protection of the population is significantly affected by the standard of living and employment of the population.
Socio-demographic processes in the North Caucasus of Russia are generally positive: in only the two subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District - North Ossetia and the Karachay-Cherkess Republic - in the period 2011-2017 there is both absolute and relative decline in population levels; in all other regions, on the contrary, the population increased every year. In general, for the period from 2010 to 2017, the population of the North Caucasian Federal District grew by 4% and approached 10 million people.
Despite the constant population growth in the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District, there are two multidirectional trends in this region. In the period 2010-2017, the North Caucasian Federal District was the only federal district in which the natural population growth rate was positive in all regions of the Russian Federation without exception (Table 1). Throughout the period under review, the NCFD ranked first among all macrore-gions in terms of natural population growth.
Table 1
Dynamics of the natural population growth rate per 1000 population in the Russian Federation and the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District for 2010-2017
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Russian Federation -1,7 -0,9 -0,03 0,2 0,2 0,3 -0,01 -0,9
North Caucasian Federal District 8,7 9,0 9,1 9,2 9,3 8,7 8,1 7,5
Republic of Dagestan 12,1 12,9 13,4 13,3 13,6 12,9 12,3 11,3
Republic of Ingushetia 22,6 23,0 17,7 17,7 18,0 15,2 13,0 13,1
Kabardino-Balkar Republic 5,2 5,6 7,0 6,6 6,8 5,8 5,4 4,3
Karachay-Cherkessia Republic 2,9 3,3 3,9 4,4 3,8 2,7 2,4 1,8
Republic of North Ossetia-Alania 3,6 3,7 4,7 4,8 4,6 3,9 3,7 2,5
Chechen Republic 24,3 23,7 20,7 19,8 19,2 18,2 16,6 17,4
Stavropol Territory -0,5 -0,5 0,6 0,9 1,3 1,4 1,3 0,3
Compiled from: [11, p. 71]
In 2017, the Chechen Republic, the Republic of Dagestan and the Republic of Ingushetia entered the top 5 regions of the Russian Federation in terms of the overall birth rate, while Chechnya became the leader in this indicator.
On the other hand, if we analyze the dynamics of migration flows, it will become obvious that one of the largest outflows of the population is observed in the regions of the North Caucasus. So, from table 2 it can be seen that the population leaves all the subjects of the NCFD, with the exception of Ingushetia, from year to year. The last three years, the largest outflow of the population comes from North Ossetia, which is among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in which the population has decreased due to the excess of the migration outflow over natural growth. A similar situation occurred in Kara-chay-Cherkessia.
Table 2
Dynamics of the migration growth rate per 10,000 people in the Russian Federation and the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District for 2010-2017
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Russian Federation 19 22 21 21 19 17 18 14
North Caucasian Federal District 4 -34 -41 -40 -21 -26 -21 -26
Republic of Dagestan 36 -74 -82 -73 -47 -45 -36 -42
Republic of Ingushetia -158 148 92 63 57 38 32 25
Kabardino-Balkar Republic -50 -65 -72 -72 -41 -41 -29 -28
Karachay-Cherkessia Republic 46 -91 -99 -87 -54 -54 -53 -21
Republic of North Ossetia-Alania -25 -86 -87 -78 -28 -61 -43 -47
Chechen Republic -44 -27 -35 -35 -17 -8 -19 -19
Stavropol Territory 34 10 8 4 5 -6 -3 -16
Compiled from: [11, p. 87]
The main reason for the migration of the working-age population is economic: modern regions with less dynamic socio-economic growth rates, as a rule, are characterized by higher levels of unemployment and chronic tension in the labor market [4]. On the one hand, this creates a general socio-psychological instability in society, especially its young part, and on the other, it contributes to the formation of a migratory psychology of the population [3,14].
The situation on the labor market in the NCFD can be described as the most difficult among all eight macro-regions of the country. The republics of the North Caucasus are characterized as regions with high rates of unemployment of the population, especially unemployment among the population under 30 years old, and are included in the group of subjects of the Russian Federation with a critical situation on the labor market. With the total population of the North Caucasus Federal District, 9823 thousand people, the labor force (persons aged 15-72 years who are considered to be employed or unemployed during the period under review) in 2017 amounted to 4559 thousand people, i.e. 46.4% of the population of the region. There has been a steady increase in the economically active population, but at the same time, the share of labor in the total population has remained almost unchanged since 2010.
Despite the fact that over the past 8 years, the share of labor on average in the North Caucasus Federal District has remained unchanged, in some subjects - North Ossetia and Karachay-Cherkessia - this figure decreased during the analyzed period, and in the Republic of Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria, on the contrary, markedly increased. It is
41
also worth noting that the average value of the share of the economically active population in the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District is significantly lower than the average Russian figure for the entire observed period.
For most of the socio-economic indicators, the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District ranked among the regions of the Russian Federation in the last ten [7]. Thus, in terms of employment, the North Caucasian Federal District is in last place among all federal districts of Russia since its creation in 2010, and in terms of unemployment, on the contrary, it ranks first [6].
As can be seen from Figure 1, in all the regions of the Federation that are part of the NCFD, the employment rate is below the Russian for the entire observed period (with the exception of RNO-Alania in 2010).
In the Chechen Republic and the Republic of Ingushetia, there has been a sharp increase in the employment rate in the period 2010-2014, but this phenomenon is most likely due to the low base effect. In Karachay-Cherkessia and North Ossetia, on the contrary, there is a decrease in the level of employment, which for the period 2010-2017 was 6% and 6.3%, respectively. The Stavropol Territory is, perhaps, the only region, the level of development of the labor market in which is comparable to the average Russian for the entire observed period.
¡Российская Федерация
Республика Дагестан
Республика Ингушетия
Кабардино-Балкарская Республика
Карачаево-Черкесская Республика
Республика Северная Осетия-Алания
Чеченская Республика Ставропольский край
Fig. 1 Changes in the level of employment in the Russian Federation and the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, 2010-2017
Compiled from: [11, p. 140]
It is worth noting the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, in which there was also an increase in the level of employment in the period 2011-2014, which has not fallen below 60% since 2014. In general, as of 2017, in all the republics of the North Caucasus Federal District, a large part of the population is employed, but these figures are still below the national average.
As for the unemployment rate, in Russia its average value is 5.8% for the period 2010-2017, and in the North Caucasus the unemployment rate is twice as high - about
12.7%. As can be seen from Figure 3, a decrease in unemployment rates is observed in almost all regions of the NCFD, this is especially noticeable in two regions - the Chechen Republic and Ingushetia. However, despite this, Ingushetia continues to lead in this indicator in Russia, exceeding the average Russian unemployment rate by more than five times. In the Stavropol Territory, since 2010, there has been persistently low unemployment, not exceeding the national average. However, in most subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District, the unemployment rate in 2017 exceeded 10%, with the lowest rate in the Stavropol Territory (5.2%) and the highest value in the Republic of Ingushetia (27%).
Considering the dynamics of employment, it should be noted that the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania and Karachay-Cherkessia are two subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District, in which the unemployment rate increased in the period 2010-2017. from 8.3% to 11.8% for North Ossetia-Alania and from 10.3% to 13.5% for Karachay-Cherkessia. In all other republics, there is a positive trend.
One of the reasons for such a high level of unemployment in the NCFD is the small volume of the labor market. In 2016, 1,175.6 thousand vacancies were open all over Russia, while in the entire North Caucasus Federal District, only 31.4 thousand jobs were free, that is, 2.67% of their total number (Table 3).
Table 3
Requirement of employers for employees, declared to the employment service of the population in the whole of the Russian Federation and the subject of the North Caucasus Federal District
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Russian Federation 981,9 1160,8 1298,3 1377,5 1396,4 1135,2 1175,6
North Caucasian Federal District 14,9 18,8 24,9 27,4 30,2 24,2 31,4
Republic of Dagestan 0,4 0,5 0,4 0,6 0,7 0,7 1,0
Republic of Ingushetia 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,5 0,1 0,1 0,5
Kabardino-Balkar Republic 2,6 3,3 2,8 3,3 3,4 3,3 3,5
Karachay-Cherkessia Republic 0,9 0,7 1,7 1,7 1,4 1,4 1,5
Republic of North Ossetia-Alania 0,8 1,9 1,5 0,9 2,5 0,8 0,8
Chechen Republic 0,7 1,0 1,5 1,3 3,1 2,7 1,9
Stavropol Territory 9,4 11,2 16,8 19,1 19,0 15,2 22,2
Compiled from: [12, annex to the manual T 2.6.]
At the same time, 146 thousand unemployed citizens applied to the employment agencies of the SKFO, that is, on average, 4.7 people applied for one vacancy.
The ratio of the number of unemployed citizens who applied to the employment agencies to the number of available vacancies is called the coefficient of labor market tension. In the North Caucasus Federal District, the tension ratio has consistently decreased over 7 years, but in 2016 it still exceeded the national average by almost five times. Even
despite a significant reduction in tension in the labor market in the regions of the North Caucasus (from 25.7 to 4.7), Dagestan, Ingushetia, North Ossetia and Chechnya recorded the highest values of this indicator, exceeding the average Russian level by more than ten times.
The common features of the subjects of the North Caucasian Federal District (with the exception of the Stavropol Territory) are the labor redundancy and high rates of the unemployed population of the North Caucasian Federal District; the continuing high growth rates in the number of labor resources amid the depressed state of the economy, which is characterized by a lack of own financial base and a high level of subsidies to the budgets of the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District; low investment activity and a high proportion of public sources of fixed capital financing [5, 13].
Obviously, the growth rate of the North Caucasus economy is lagging behind the demographic processes of the macroregion, and the employers' need for workers, stated to the employment service agencies, does not match the labor potential of the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. As a result of the outstripping growth of the region's labor force compared to its economic potential, the load of the unoccupied population per vacancy declared for Russia as a whole and for the subject of the North Caucasus Federal District varies by 14.3 times in 2010, by 13.6 times in 2011, in 12, 6 times in 2012, 10.3 times in 2013, 9.3 times in 2014, 9.3 times in 2014, 7 times in 2015 and 5.2 times in 2016.
Meanwhile, it must be remembered that the growth of the working-age population even in the short term without a proportional growth in employment can create centers of social tension and high conflict potential on ethnic, religious, ethnic, interprofessional or other social grounds. If we take into account that the North Caucasus, which has become a key region in world geopolitics since the early 1990s, recently returned to normal (socially stable) conditions of socio-economic development, the factor of maintaining high unemployment amid the growing share of young people in the overall structure population can destabilize the social situation not only in the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District, but throughout the South of Russia. If we theorize this issue, then we can say that the young working-age population is the crucible of increased energy, and the state should create the conditions for this energy to go towards creation. If this focus is left unattended, the situation may develop according to an uncontrollable scenario.
We believe that it is necessary to provide the population of the region with the opportunity of employment in their republics or to promote effective labor migration to labor-deficient or economically more developed regions of Russia [4]. The most effective ways of rapid growth in employment, in our opinion, are:
- the growth of self-employment, which is possible, for example, in the framework of federal programs and the state program "Development of the North Caucasus Federal District", especially federal target programs aimed at the socio-economic development of each subject of the North Caucasus Federal District until 2025;
- active development of small business support programs in the service sector, where at the beginning of 2019 more than half of the working population of the North Caucasus are actually employed, within the subprograms of the state program "Development of the North Caucasus Federal District", aimed at implementing investment projects of the North Caucasus Federal District, developing tourist and recreational clusters in the North Caucasus Federal District, the Krasnodar Territory and the Republic of Adygea, the creation of all-season tourist and recreational complexes "Arkhyz","Veduchi" and "Elbrus-Bezengi", as well as the creation of a medical cluster in the Caucasian Mineral Waters;
- organization and implementation of programs for interregional youth employment in the North Caucasus Federal District through the creation of special youth employment centers that perform information, marketing, organizational, economic, educational and financial and administrative functions in order to fully promote employment of the most initi-
ative, mobile, educated, able-bodied and motivated part of the population of the North Caucasus Federal District in Central, Northern macroregions of Russia, as well as regions of Western and Eastern Siberia, which are rich in natural resources, and the Far East.
The problem of unemployment is one of the urgent problems of modern North Caucasian society. However, its solution requires not only and not so much public investment, but also an active dialogue between the state and society, as well as the development of a youth initiative; an innovative approach to solving employment problems, which is very important in the light of the formation of the digital economy and Internet business; striving for continuous development of key competences in the region.
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