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UDC 314
LEVEL AND DYNAMICS OF UNEMPLOYMENT AS A FACTOR OF THE REGION POPULATION MIGRATION
A.Sh. Begieva, S.F. Dzagoev
North-Ossetian State University of K.L. Khetagurov. Vladikavkaz, Russia
science-almanac@mail. ru
It is reasoned that the high unemployment, especially among the young population of the North Caucasus is the main factor of migration to the central regions of Russia. Unemployment social costs are connected, first of all, with deprivation of professional and human communication, belonging to the general deal. Income is not just reward for labor, but also significant evidence of what people do. Work provides a special status, prestige and professional suitability. Besides, work mobilizes a person, creates conditions for the right living.
Key words: unemployment level, structure of unemployed people by duration of job search, average age of the unemployed.
The North Caucasus, according to the estimations of a numerous experts, represents a zone of a real social catastrophe. The problem of employment and job placement was repeatedly discussed on the level of country government. The whole complex of strategy measures of the North Caucasus federal district socioeconomic development till 2025 is aimed to the unemployment problem solving [4]. The strategy emphasizes that the highest level of unemployment is in the Republic of Ingushetia - 53 %, the Chechen Republic - 42 % and the Republic of Dagestan - 17,2 %. However, the unemployment level in the country is significantly higher than unemployment level among the city population. More than a half of unemployment people are the young generation. The interest of unemployment duration in the North Caucasian district exceeds the medium one in the Russian Federation, as an interest of long-term unemployed (more than 1 year) comprises 27,7 per cent (in the Russian Federation - 12,2 per cent) [4, p. 15-16].
It is well-known that in the regions of the North Caucasus federal district (NCFD) the personal income level - is the lowest in the country, at that regional markets undergo negative influence of forced migration, which increases the load to the labor market; migrators compete with local population for work positions, accordingly, social tensity grows that in its turn leads to forced labor migration of NCFD regions population. Unemployment level can be defined with a help of different methods. General unemployment level data are defined by Federal State Statistics Service on the basis of sampling observations according to the population employment problems on the ground of ILO (International Labour Organization). According to this approach, people from 15 to 72 years are referred to unemployed, who in the period of quiz realization simultaneously met three criteria: they did not have a job (gainful employment), they searched for a work through governmental or commercial employment services, and they were ready to start a work. Date putting of official and registered unemployment is greatly widespread. Its indexes are rather lower than indexes of Federal State Statistics Service, as they are defined according to the number admitted by the unemployed people from the number of appealed to governmental employment service.
In the rural districts of NCFD the problem of departments farness distance and centers of population employment promotion is very topical for people looking for job. Some experts notice the necessity of unemployed people registration in the rural settlement administrations, but not in the regional employment services that gives the more real indexes of official unemployment in "rural depth of the country". Actively realized in the NCFD regions institutional modernization, investment support of large projects by RF President and government of Russia and other measures of governmental support led to the fact that in recent years decrease of unemployed people, growth of economy involved population are the main characteristics for the most regions of the North Caucasus. Certainly, decrease of unemployed number in some measure can be connected with underestimation of population employment services. But the main reason appears to be rather wide spread of
new forms of population employment and self-employment, which are not registered by official statistics.
The level of registered unemployment in North Ossetia in 2013 compiled 3,2%. About 11 377 of people are registered in the employment centers of North Ossetia. According to the republican population employment service data in 2013 about 6 211 of people referred to them for assistance in job placement. The general unemployed number, classified according to criteria of ILO, in 2013 exceeds unemployed number in 3,1 times, registered in committee of republic population employment. During 2013 republic unemployment level was decreased on 0,14% and compiled 9321 of people. The indexes of general and registered unemployment in North Ossetia are given in Table 1.
Table 1
The number of unemployed people in the Republic of North Ossetia - Alania in 2008-2013
Year Unemployed people according to methodology of ILO Unemployed people, registered in the employment service
Thous.pers. % Thous.pers. %
2008 35,6 9,8 11,0 3,2
2010 36,5 9,7 12,8 3,5
2011 29,5 8,3 10,1 2,7
2012 27,2 7,9 9,3 2,6
2013 28,9 8,2 9,3 2,7
Source: http://osetstat.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat ts/osetstat/ru/statistics
It is worth mentioning that North Ossetia entered into the number of 13 regions, where the unemployment was decreased in 2013 [5]. Besides the indexes of general and registered unemployment for situation analysis on the labor market another characteristics are also applied, for instance, labor market tension coefficient. It shows applicant for the one vacant position. Labor market tension on the 1st of October 2013 in republic compiled 5,6 persons for the vacant position. This index was much higher in the last year - 9 persons for a vacant position. 393 of people were employed on vacant positions. As a representative of employment service noticed, about 870 of people participated in special employment programs.
One of the reasons of such deviations - appear to be methodological differences in the part of population category coverage. Unemployed people, registered in the population employment service institutes - are citizens capable to work, without work and earnings (earned income), registered in the population employment service institutes according to place of residence for the purpose of suitable work searching, who are looking for job and ready to start it. Consequently, persons who have not reached 16 years old, persons who are taking intramural course of studies in the educational institutions, pensionaries according to age, service record and those who are on preferential terms are cannot be admitted as unemployed in the population employment service institutions. During the conduction of population examination according to the problems of employment these categories of population can be classified as unemployed, if during the researching period people did not have a job, were searching for a job, and were ready to start a job, in other words, responded to the criteria for association them with unemployed people according to the ILO.
Besides the differences of methodological character, which have an effect on comparability of unemployment rate according to the population research data of employment problems and data of population employment service administrative accounting, there are reasons mostly of subjective nature, connected with preferences of unoccupied population in the choice of job search method. As population research data show, according to the problems of population, at the end of December of 2013 76,2% of unemployed people were searching for work by their own. From them 40,1 % of
unemployed people were searching for work with a help of an employer. Unemployed men, searching for work with a help of an employer, compiled 49%, and unemployed women compiled 34% and this method of job search in this month was the most preferential.
What age composition of unemployed people in RNO - Alania? Absence of corresponding accurate materials complicates exact answer to this question. However with a help of age structure comparative analysis of all economically active population including employed and unemployed one can approximately define in what age group the labor potential is used better, and in what worse.
One can judge about use degree of population labor potential of separate age groups also by age structure of people, who during the latest population research according to the population employment problems were unemployed.
The average age of unemployed in RNO - Alania at the end of 2013 compiled 40 years. Among unemployed people 29,6% are young people at the age from 20 to 29, 44,6% people from 30 to 49 and 25,8% people at the age from 50 to 72. The highest level of unemployment was marked among persons at the age from 45 to 49 11,9%. The coefficient of middle aged people unemployment level excess in comparison with the unemployment level among the young people compiled 1,4 times. The highest unemployment level is observed as among urban population of persons at the age from 30 to 49 - 7,1%, and among rural population at the age from 20 to 29 - 24,1% (Table 2).
Table 2
Unemployment level according to age groups in RNO-Alania in 2013 (in percentage terms)
Total amount 20-29 years 30-49 years 50-59 years
Urban population 3,5 2,1 7,1 5,3
Rural population 18,6 24,1 13,6 17,5
Source: http://osetstat.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat ts/osetstat/ru/statistics
The Data from the table 2 once again confirm the critical state of the young people unemployment among the rural population in the region. At the age from 20-29 this is 24,1%. Also the high percentage is among unemployed people at the age from 30-49, as among urban population -7,1%, so among rural population- 13,6%.
According to the conducted quiz of North-Ossetian state university students and lecturers, unemployment in whole and, in particular, young people unemployment enters the five of the most significant problems of the republic. From 709 thous. of people from North Ossetia 523 thous. of people - are in active working age. The level of general unemployment in the Republic of North Ossetia Alania according to the results of 2012 compiled 7,9 % from the economically active population part. The level of registered unemployment - 2,6 %. In the general number of acknowledged unemployed people the part of young people compiles 40 %. (Table 3).
Table 3
The level of general unemployment according to the subjects of NCFD (in percentage terms)
2009 2010 2011 2012
Russian Federation 8,3 7,3 6,5 5,5
North-Caucasian FD 16,0 16,5 14,5 13,1
the Republic of Dagestan 13,2 14,8 12,7 11,7
the Republic of Ingooshetia 53,2 49,8 48,1 47,6
the Kabardino-Balkaria 14,6 12,7 10,5 8,9
the Karachai-Circassian Republic 12,0 10,3 9,8 8,9
RNO - Alania 10,4 9,7 8,3 7,9
the Chechen Republic 35,0 43,3 37,3 31,3
the Stavropol Territory 8,7 7,3 6,0 5,4
Source: Regions of Russia. Socioeconomic indexes. 2013. Stat. coll. / FSSS. M., 2013.
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Analyzing the given table, one can see that in recent years the level of unemployment in RF and NCFD constantly decreased. One can also observe positive dynamics in North Ossetia. Thus, in the period from 2009-2012 unemployment level was decreased on 2,5 percentage points. According to the state at the end of 2013 the number of officially registered unemployed citizens compiled 8785 people in the republic, and this is on 7,1% less than in last year. The duration job search is also worth mentioning. Among unemployed people in 2013 60,8% compiled persons, whose duration of job searching was more than 12 months (stagnant unemployment). Stagnant unemployment among urban population compiled 51,4%, and among rural population 64,4%. The average time of job searching by unemployed people in 2013 comprised 10,6 months (Table 4).
Table 4
Structure of unemployed people in RNO - Alania according to the duration
of job searching in 2013
Less than 1 From 3to 6 12 and more
Total amount 10,8 16,2 60,8
Urban population 15,9 32,7 51,4
Rural population 8,9 10,0 64,4
Source: http://osetstat.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat ts/osetstat/ru/statistics
It should be mentioned that for people who are in search for work more than half a year, it is significantly difficult to find a job. Thus, at the end of 2013 number of people searching for job more than 12 months comprised 60,8% among officially registered unemployed people (Table 4). In accordance with the official data of Federal State Statistics Service for 2012, the Republic of North Ossetia - Alania is at the 63 place according to the unemployment level with the index of 7,9%, whereas the average level in a country comprised 5,5% [2]. Minimal unemployment level in 0, 8% was registered in Moscow, and maximal level in 47,7% - in the Republic of Ingushetia. As the given materials, so also a lot of other researches confirm that the most part of unemployed people does not hope to find an appropriate job with a help of employment service organs. As they mainly offer hard, unattractive or low-paid jobs for unemployed people.
The consequences of long-term unemployment are appeared to be a serious problem. Socioeconomic consequences of unemployment are considered along with the problems of poverty and social instability as one of the most critical global and national problems. Very often only economic impact of unemployment is estimated in the form of free workers number and amounts of paid allowances, but social consequences which are hard to emphasize, and carry cumulative character are practically not estimated. However, the degree of unemployment negative influence to the situation in the country depends on concrete social situations parameters [1, p. 121-125]. Unemployment social costs are connected, first of all, with deprivation of professional and human communication, belonging to the general deal. Income - is not just reward for labor, but also significancy evidence of what people do. Work provides a special status, prestige and professional suitability. Besides, work mobilizes a person, creates conditions for the right living.
References
1. Gurieva L.K., Caberti N.G. Scopes and degree of migration influence from the regions of Russia for the formation of North Ossetia population // Vestnik of the North-Ossetian state university of K. L. Khetagurov. 2015. No 4.
2. Regions of Russia. Socioeconomic indexes. 2013. Collection of articles / Rosstat. M., 2013.
3. Kolosova O.Y., Goncharov V. N. Economic and ecological safety of the region: strategy choice // Science almanac of Black Sea region countries. 2015. № 3. http://science-almanac.ru
4. Strategies of socioeconomic development of the North-Caucasian federal district till 2025. Approved by Russian Federation governmental order from 6th of September 2010. № 1485-P.
5. http://osetstat.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_ts/osetstat/ru/statistics/population/.
Литература
1. Гуриева Л.К., Каберты Н.Г. Масштабы и степень влияния миграции из регионов России на формирование населения Северной Осетии // Вестник Северо-Осетинского государственного университета имени К. Л. Хетагурова. 2015. № 4.
2. Регионы России. Социально-экономические показатели. 2013. Сборник статей. / Рос-стат. М., 2013.
3. Kolosova O.Y., Goncharov V. N. Economic and ecological safety of the region: strategy choice // Научный альманах стран Причерноморья. 2015. № 3. http://science-almanac.ru
4. Стратегия социально-экономического развития Северо-Кавказского федерального округа до 2025 года. Утверждена распоряжением Правительства Российской Федерации от 6 сентября 2010 г. № 1485-р.
5. http://osetstat.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_ts/osetstat/ru/statistics/population/.
January, 25, 2016
