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POLISH-BELARUSIAN RELATIONS:
LET’S MAKE MONEY, NOT WAR
Anna Maria Dyner
Summary
The year 2013 has brought no drastic change in Polish-Belarusian relations. Notwithstanding frozen political relations and sanctions by the European Union after the events of 19 December 2010 both countries developed trade and, to some extent, cross-border cooperation. Nonetheless, Poland has still not been notified about ratification of the bilateral agreement on small border traffic. Visa questions, the Pole’s Card and the number of the corps diplomatique issues remained traditionally disputable.
Trends:
• Political relations remain frozen; nevertheless, in 2013, unlike in 2011-2012, Poland was not treated as enemy №1;
• The military question became a disputable issue again, which was caused by military trainings Zapad 2013 (‘West-2013’) in Belarus and Steadfast Jazz - in Poland;
• Despite frozen political relations, Poland and Belarus are developing regional cooperation;
• The year 2013 became another year of the rising trade turnover;
• Although border traffic remained on the level similar to 2012, border exchange developed.
Politics in icy shackles
Bilateral relations remain frozen since the presidential election of December 2010, resulting in a lack of interstate contacts on the highest level. At the same time the countries do not shun technical contacts, and in 2013 the EU resumed financing a number of cross-border projects, among others — the program of cross-border cooperation Poland — Belarus — Ukraine 2007— 2013. Within this program the EU supports some Belarusian hospitals and Brest and Hrodna. Two euroregions — Niemen and Bug — offer possibilities for cooperation as well. It should also be noted that, despite frozen political relations on the line Warsaw — Minsk, in 2013, Poland, Belarus and Ukraine inked a trilateral agreement on state border junctions.
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belarusian yearbook 2013
Interestingly, in 2013, the wave of media attacks from the side of Belarus was smaller than those in previous years. The key reproofs against Poland concerned consular services unable to manage visa procedures properly. The Belarusian TV broadcasted materials about various intermediary companies that, supposedly, share their visa services profits with Polish consuls. These programs indeed touched upon a significant problem that an ordinary Belarusian faces when travelling to Poland, i. e. difficulties with obtaining a Polish visa without applying to intermediaries. The reasons are both hacker attacks on Polish consular servers and blocking of available appointment times and resistance of the Belarusian side to increase the Polish consular staff. Nevertheless, despite these problems last year over 360,000 Belarusians obtained Polish visas.
An old reproof is the Pole’s Card issued by consular sections (in the 4th quarter of 2013 it was used by 11.6% of the Belarusians crossing the Polish border). Moreover, Belarus still restricts its citizens in obtaining this ID. In 2013, a decision was passed that the Pole’s Card (as well as any other document giving privileges in any other country) cannot be obtained by the military and employees of the Interior Ministry and Ministry of Emergency Situations.
Meanwhile, the most resounding story from the eastern neighbour in Polish media was the case of Teresa Strzelec. The woman was prohibited to leave Belarus due to complications resulting from her operations with her car that violated Belarusian customs procedures. Thanks to the work of Polish diplomatic services and the good will of the Belarusian authorities the Pole was able to return to Poland. Nevertheless, she is not going to receive compensation for the confiscated car. Importantly, in 2013 there were no reports about complications around the non-recognized Union of Poles in Belarus.
In 2013 mistrust between the two countries was awoken by military issues. The majority of the Polish public did not welcome the military exercise Zapad-2013 of Belarus and Russia. According to its scenario, the external forces (generally understood as Poland and the rest of the NATO states) seek to destabilize the situation in Belarus, which must be opposed by the Belarusian army backed by Russia’s aviation, land and
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marine forces. Aviation and air defence are to isolate the area of operations, while the land and marine forces neutralize the enemy troops.
The public was concerned by the information about Russia taking over military duties over Belarus’ territory, plans to construct a military base for Russian fighter jets (initially at Lida, afterwards — at Baranavichy), and deployment of 4 divisions of S-300 rockets in Belarus.
In his turn, President Lukashenko was critical about NATO exercise Steadfast Jazz in November in Poland. Belarus was also visibly worried by the plans to redeploy a number of US F-16 fighter jets from the Italian base Aviano.
Nevertheless, it is obvious that in 2013, with Alaksandr Aviaryanau appointed a new ambassador to Poland, anti-Polish rhetoric in Belarus subsided, whereas in Poland, Belarusian issues retreated to the background as well.
Economic relations
Despite frozen political relations Poland and Belarus are developing trade contacts. According to the information of the Chief Statistic Committee of Poland (GUS) the Polish export to Belarus in 2013 increased by 17.1% compared to 2012 and went beyond EUR 1.8 billion. At the same time Poland recorded an import decrease from Belarus by 23.5% down to EUR 490 million. Therefore, the Polish trade balance increased by EUR 450 million—up to EUR 1.2 million. It should be noted here that in 2013 Poland recorded increased trade balances with the CIS countries—the total export to all these countries increased by 7.8% and reached EUR 15.3 billion, whereas the import decreased down to EUR 21.9 billion (by 11.7%). As a result, the negative trade balance with all the CIS countries fell from EUR 10.5 billion in 2012 to EUR 6.5 billion in 2013.
Moreover, border trade is developing, too. According to GUS, in 2013, customers who declared Belarus as their permanent residence country spent PLN 2.4 billion (nearly EUR 600 million) in Poland, and those from Poland — PLN 76.3 million in Belarus. Only in the 4th quarter of 2013 each Belarusian spent in Poland nearly PLN 840 (nearly
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belarusian yearbook 2013
EUR 200) buying radio- and TV electronics and domestic appliances, clothes, footwear, spare parts and accessories for automobiles. The greatest number of purchases was made in the 50 km border zone. This situation has attracted attention from Belarusian carriers, who have introduced new bus trips to Poland; railway services ofboth countries have also announced more intensive cooperation in passenger traffic between Hrodna and Bialystok.
Therefore, it is small wonder that the Belarusian authorities are fearing that introduction of the small border traffic will increase expenses of the Belarusians in Poland, especially as shopping has already become the most frequently declared reason for visiting the western neighbour. Despite absence of the small border traffic in 2013 over 7.8 million Belarusians crossed the Polish border, and slightly over 1 million Polish citizens went to visit Belarus. Although this number is comparable to that of 2012, judging by the popularity of small border traffic passes among the Ukrainians and Russians, the similar situation could be expected in Belarus as well.
The topic that was enthusiastically welcomed in Belarus but triggered a political storm in Poland was an announcement that Russia is ready to construct a second line of Jamal—Europe pipeline, or the so called ‘crosspiece’. The Belarusian authorities were very optimistic about that seeing a chance for extra finances form Russia, even in the form of transit payments. Nevertheless, the Polish side expressed no readiness for participation in the project, and it was dismissed.
Despite that economic cooperation can be considered one of the few positive aspects in Polish-Belarusian relations, it does not imply its complete independence of what is happening in the political dimension. And this is also true about the relations Poland — Russia (or, broader, with the European Union), which can be illustrated by the case when Belarus blocked Polish pork on the hint from Russia on the pretext of unpermitted salt pork discovered in a shipment of meat from Poland. Later it turned out that the blame was on the Russian importer. Due to the escalating political conflict in the region Polish-Belarusian economic relations might deteriorate in the near future.
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Summary
The year 2013 has brought no considerable change in the Polish-Belarusian relations. Political contacts remained frozen, but both states cooperated in the technical dimension and the number of mutual media attacks has fallen drastically. At the same time, despite political issues, Poland and Belarus recorded another increase in trade turnover.
If it were not for sanctions, human rights issues and partially military issues (that also concern the blocks the both states are allied with — namely CSTO and NATO), we could describe the relations as ordinary relations between neighbours.
