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POLAND AND BELARUS: TIME OF 'WEAK STABILIZATION'
Anna Maria Dyner
Summary
The improvement of the Polish-Belarusian relations has been evident for another year in a row. The frequency of meetings between the authorities of both countries was sustained; the contacts at the local level, as well as economic and cultural relations were developed. Both states tried to use the potential of good neighborhood and common historical heritage for tourism development. Contrary to warnings, the Polish-Belarusian relations were not affected by the maneuvers 'West-2017'. Their scenario, which provided among other things, an attack from the territory of Poland and response counterattack, was widely commented by the NATO member states. Unresolved bilateral relations still remain a challenge, including the ones associated with the Union of Poles of Belarus or the entry into force of the local border traffic.
Trends:
• Gradual improvement of political relations;
• Increasing bilateral trade and the size of Polish investments;
• The development of bilateral regional cooperation.
Political relations
At the 25th anniversary of the establishment ofbilateral relations no breakthrough happened: visits at the level of Prime Minister or President were not on the agenda. 2017 can be considered as a period of 'weak stabilization' due to the large number of visits at the parliamentary level, Ministerial consultations and meetings of working groups.
In 2017 the dynamics of the meetings at the intergovernmental level and Ministerial levels maintained. On 19 January the meeting of Chairman of the Council of the Republic of Belarus Mikhail Myasnikovich with the Polish Ambassador Konrad Pawlik took place, during which the results of the meeting of the parliamentary groups of both countries in Warsaw in December 2016 were summed up (it was the first official visit of a group of Belarusian parliamentarians to Poland).
On 16 January a political, economic and cross-border cooperation was discussed in Warsaw by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Marek Zelkowski and Belarus' Ambassador to Poland Alexander Averyanov.
On 27 February in Warsaw the political consultations at the level of directors of territorial departments of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs took place. On 15 March the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland Marek Zelkowski visited Minsk and took part in the meeting of Deputy Ministers of Eastern Partnership countries and the Visegrad Group. Mr Zelkowski also discussed cooperation in the information sphere with the Minister of Information of Belarus Liliya Ananich. On 12 April in Warsaw the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Poland and Belarus took place in the framework of the meeting of Foreign Ministers of Visegrad Group and Eastern Partnership. On April 20—21 in Minsk, the Minister of Health Care of Poland Constantine Radziwill met with his Belarusian counterpart Valeriy Malashko. In September Minsk hosted Belarusian-Polish consultations of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Justice.
As in previous years, parliamentary contacts were of great importance. The increasingly frequent meetings of the Belaru-sian and Polish parliamentarians indicate an increase in the activity of the Belarusian Parliament on the international stage, including relations with Poland. The Belarusian side claims, for example, for observer status in the parliamentary Assembly of the Organizations of the Baltic Sea States.
In 2017 Belarus continued to strengthen military cooperation with Poland. This was secured not only by the meeting of officials of the Ministry of Defense with Poland's Ambassador to Belarus Konrad Pawlik but also by the steps of Belarusian diplomacy on the eve of military maneuvers 'West-2017'. In July the Belarusian side invited observers from OSCE countries. Belarusian diplomacy reported in detail about the planned maneuvers, highlighting their defensive nature. However, a lot of controversy was caused by the scenario of the maneuvers, which included an attack on Belarus from the territory of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, as well as a counterattack to the territory of conventional adversaries. The maneuvers were followed by a
discussion in Poland and other NATO countries on the subject of whether Belarus would be able to keep its independence in case of a possible conflict between Russia and NATO members. However, the maneuvers had no negative impact on the political and military relations between Poland and Belarus.
In 2017 the Belarusian military took part in special courses in the framework of fulfilment of obligations under arms control in Poland and Germany. On January 12 inspectors from Poland and the Czech Republic visited the 336-th rocket artillery brigade, on 16—19 November the representative of Poland participated in the inspection of ground forces. In May 2017 the Belarusian military conducted an inspection in Poland. In July in Warsaw, a meeting of representatives of the armed forces of Poland and Belarus took place, the main topic of which was cooperation in the field of arms control. The delegations from Poland, Italy and the UK also checked the state of readiness of the 103rd separate guard airborne brigade, which Belarus chose to participate in uN peacekeeping missions. In accordance with the provisions of the Treaty on Open Sky Polish-Italian inspection made a reconnaissance flight over the territory of Belarus. On 11—13 september, the Polish delegation held a military inspection in Belarus. In turn, the observers from Belarus controlled the teachings of the Dragon'17, which took place on the territory of Poland. Belarusian military in accordance with the safeguards of the Vienna document of December 18—22, 2017 carried out the inspection in Poland.
According to predictions, both the level and intensity of bilateral contacts was unchanged. But still some issues particularly important for the Polish side failed to be resolved. Among them are the entry into force of the agreement on local border traffic, registration of a Union of Poles in Belarus recognized by Warsaw and TV-channel 'Belsat'. However, unless there are any unforeseen political developments, it can be expected that bilateral relations in the next years will look like those in 2017.
Economic cooperation
The growth of trade turnover between Poland and Belarus and an increased interest of Polish companies to invest in Belarus
contributed to improved political relations between the two countries.
In 2017, the trade turnover between Poland and Belarus grew by 19.6% compared to 2016 and made up USD 2,19 billion. Polish exports to Belarus amounted to USD 1,125 billion (grew by 13.2%), and Belarusian exports — USD 947 million (grew by 8.7%)1. Belarus exports mainly potash fertilizers, oil products, wood, while Poland — medicines and food. However, Belarusian politicians have repeatedly noted that the trade turnover should be at least USD 3-4 billion.
On 28 March 2017 Polish-Belarusian Chamber of Commerce and the Belarusian National Agency of Investment and Privatization signed a bilateral agreement, which should contribute to the improvement of the economic contacts between Poland and Belarus. On 25 October Minsk hosted the fifth session of the Belarusian-Polish working group on trade and investment, one of the topics was cooperation in the banking sector.
In 2017, the Polish companies started several significant investment projects in Belarus. On 11 May in Viciebsk the factory of the Polish company 'Modern Expo' was opened, which produces commercial equipment. The Polish company 'Unibep' in 2017, signed a contract for the construction of a logistics center in Balbasava (contract price EUR 12,8 million) and started the investment. The contract for EUR 15 million for the construction of a railway load terminal on the transition in Bruzgi was signed by the company OT Logistics Bel, which is part of the Polish holding 'OT Logistics'.
In March 2017 the Polish-Belarusian Center IPO (Initial Public Offering) started its activity. The centre should prepare specialists who will advise companies on the stock exchange. The exhibition MILEX-2017, which was held May 20-22, was attended by Polish military sector companies.
Economic contacts were permanently restricted by Russian sanctions. They mainly complicated the development of trade
«Внешняя торговля / Годовые данные.» Национальный статистический комитет Республики Беларусь. Web. 4 Apr. 2018. <http:// www.belstat.gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika/makroekonomika-i-okruzhayushchaya-sreda/vneshnyaya-torg ovlya_2/operativnye-dannye_5/eksport-import-s-otdelnymi-stranami/>.
in consumer products imported from the EU, for which Russia imposed an embargo. However, 2017 in the Polish-Belarusian economic relations should be assessed positively.
Regional cooperation
An important element of bilateral relations remains border traffic and regional cooperation.
Over 25 years of Polish-Belarusian relations 83 Treaties on partner relations between Belarusian and Polish cities and regions were signed. In 2017 the cooperation was extended due to Viciebsk region and Lodz Voivodeship. On October 5—7 in Baranavicy the fourth meeting of twin towns of Belarus and Poland was held which was attended by representatives of 12 Belarusian and 16 Polish cities.
The Polish self-government and local Belarusian authorities have actively used the program Poland — Belarus — Ukraine. In 2017 the Belarusian Parliament approved the implementation of three projects at the Belarusian-Polish border in the framework of this programme. In particular, the construction of an additional bridge for cars over the river svislac in Berastavica-Babrouniki, the support of fire safety services and modernization of road R-16. At the same time, the Belarusian side requested further assistance from the EU in the financing of infrastructure projects on the border between Belarus and the European Union.
Belarus counts on Polish investments in the tourism industry. Presidential decree No. 318 created the preconditions for the rapid development of infrastructure in the region. More than 50 km of new bicycle lanes appeared, new tourist routes were created, the tourism base developed, tourists were attracted by the greater choice of cultural events. The character of the border crossing point Liasnaja-Rudauka changed. In 2017, 2.6 thousand people crossed it, while in 2016 there were only 200.
Regional cooperation supports bilateral economic relations, as evidenced, in particular, the Belarusian-Pomeranian regional economic forum, which took place on September 14 in Minsk.
However, for the development of cross-border cooperation (especially in the tourist dimension) associated with the possibility of visa-free entry to the territory of Hrodna region,
changes to the Treaties between the Government of the Republic of Belarus and the Government of the Republic of Poland on the issue of border crossings will be necessary2. From the point of view of Poland, an additional factor that simplifies and strengthens regional cooperation with Belarus will be the end of the ratification of the agreement on small border traffic by the Belarusian side. It could simplify not only personal contacts but also will provide additional funds for the development of border infrastructure, as it happened with other treaties of this kind signed by the EU member states.
Social and cultural contacts
The social and cultural contacts were of a great importance. Belarus was one of the countries that took part in the Warsaw book fairs in February and May. Theatres from Poland took part in Belarusian 'Slavonic theatrical meetings' in Homiel and in the festival 'Bielaja Vieza' in Brest. In May, in Braslau there was a solemn opening of the Polish-Belarusian sailing school 'The Wind of Friendship', which was financed from the funds of Polish developmental aid.
According to the statements of Deputy Minister of Culture Vasily Chernik and Paul Lewandowski, who met in Minsk in March 2017, both countries are planning a joint celebration in 2020 of the 150th anniversary of the birth of Ferdinand Ruszc-zyc - a painter, graphic, stage decorator and teacher.
In November 2017 the twelfth meeting of the Polish-Belaru-sian intergovernmental Commission on cooperation in science and technology was held in Warsaw. During the meeting they discussed the contest for the implementation of joint Belarusian-Polish scientific and technical projects. The funding received 11 applications in the fields of electronics, machinery and modern agricultural technologies. During the meeting an agreement was signed on scientific-technical cooperation between the Institute of Nuclear Problems of the Belarusian State University and the
"Umowa mi^dzy Rzqdem Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej a Rzqdem Republiki Bialorus w sprawie przejsc granicznych, M.P. 2003 nr 37 poz. 518." Internetowy System Aktow Prawnych. Web. 4 Apr. 2018. <http://prawo. sejm.gov.pl/isap.nsf/DocDetails.xsp?id=WMP20030370518>.
Polish National Centre for Synchrotron radiation SOLARIS. It should be noted that the subjects from both countries signed more than 50 agreements and memoranda of cooperation.
Poland and Belarus are jointly conducting the restoration of many churches, located mainly on the territory of the Hrodna region.
The importance of human contact should also be emphasized. All the consular offices of Poland in Belarus in 2017 issued 418.6 thousand visas (an increase compared to 2016 is by 5.1%). Citizens of Poland were at the forefront of people using the right of visa-free entry to the territory of Belarus in the Hrodna region, and Minsk-2 airport. In 2017 the number of persons crossing the Polish-Belarusian border increased by 17% compared with 2016. The Polish border service recorded 8 million 269 thousand crossings3.
Conclusion
Improved political relations contributed to the cultural, scientific and social relations. However, Polish-Belarusian relations constantly face the burden of multiple unresolved issues. Some of them can be attributed to bilateral issues, the solution of which depends only on the governments of both countries. Among these problems is small border crossing agreements, the settlement of the status of the Union of Poles in Belarus and TV channel 'Belsat'.
Part of the unresolved issues arises from the political situation in the region of Central and Eastern Europe. The problem of security is overshadowed by the aggressive Russian policy towards Ukraine. This, in turn, calls into question the security policy of Belarus, which together with Russia is a part of the Union State and is in a close military, political and economic union. The most important is the degree of independence of Belarus in its foreign policy, especially in improving relations with the EU and NATO. All this limits the possibilities of cooperation of Poland and Belarus. Therefore, the search for the next areas for cooperation between Poland and Belarus is limited.
"Statystyki SG styczen-grudzien 2017." Straz Graniczna. Web. 4 Apr. 2018. <https://www.strazgramczna.pl/pl/gramca/statystyki-sg/2206,Statystyki-SG.html>.
