CC BY
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Vladimir Karyakin,
Ph. D. (Military sciences), leading research associate, Center for Defense Studies, RISI MODERN CRISES AND CONFLICTS: CHARACTERISTICS, SCENARIOS OF DEVELOPMENT AND PREVENTION
Causes and characteristics of contemporary conflict and crisis situations
Emerging crises and conflicts are not amenable to early recognition and diagnosis, according to the experience of forecasting the geopolitical situation in recent years. Numerous "color revolutions" and the protest movements in the post-Soviet area and the Middle East serve as examples. Experts and political analysts have not been ready for them, despite repeated preconditions and scenarios of these "revolutions." The wave of "Arab revolutions" in North Africa and the protest movements in Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and Moldova have led to the elimination of the ruling regimes there as a result of the application of technology to manipulate human consciousness. The two superpowers identified the main parameters of global development and the member-countries of the military-political alliances complied with bloc discipline and supported the policy of the United States or the Soviet Union in the international arena in the previous era of bipolarity. Political forecasting used the comparative approach with a linear 4
extrapolation of the situation at national and international levels. Nowadays the situation has changed radically. Socio-political processes develop nonlinearly with symptoms of turbulence due to the possible influence of members of social networks. Identification and diagnosis of incipient conflicts and crisis situations become more complex as a result. The triumph of social networks has brought fiasco to political prognostication.
In the 1990s there were 170 conflict zones in the world and 30 of them were in the active phase. However, their number began to decrease at the beginning of this century and now it has stabilized at around five to seven armed conflicts1. But the number of internal and external participants in these conflicts has increased.
The main feature of modern crises and conflicts is the involvement of external actors that provide military, financial or informational support in their own interests to one of the conflicting parties. Similar conflicts develop beyond the bounds of internal problems of the given country, when they are viewed from the international legal point of view, as the situation in Libya and Syria has already proven.
Another feature of the majority of modern conflicts is their value dimension, realized by the struggle of ethnic, cultural and religious identities. The value factor is often used as ideological substantiation and propaganda cover by the participants in the conflict. There are frequent situations when a conflict does not abate because of the irrational wish of the leaders of radical movements to fight to the end "for faith" or "in the name of true independence of the nation," when incompatibility of interests has already been overcome. The fact is that today the ideas of protecting national interests and dignity of the nation can be used as a mobilization reserve.
The third feature of modern conflicts is the involvement of common people of other countries into conflicts. The mass media and social networks, which form public opinion, also affect the heads of state and international organizations. Thus, a large number of internal and external participants in a conflict, its vaguely outlined state borders, the interdependence of social, economic, religious and humanitarian aspects - all this makes it difficult to forecast the development of the situation. These factors make analyses a complex task with many unknowns. The frequency of conflicts and crises is due to a high level of conflict potential, which is determined by the following factors:
Rivalry between the leading world and regional actors in world politics for spheres of military and political influence, sources of raw materials and markets in the post-Soviet area and the Middle East, with the use of indirect action strategy and soft power.
Increased activity of diplomatic, intelligence agencies and nongovernmental organizations, promoting, organizing and financing the opposition forces in their fight against the current government. Organizers of protest movements involve third countries (as was the case of Libya or Syria) to participate in them, recruit and train mercenaries and finance their activities.
Scenarios of political upheavals have successfully been implemented to destabilize the social and political environment in the Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Moldova. Young people under 30 years are the driving force of these "revolutions" and their number is increasing. It is assumed that it will be 47 percent in Asia, 57 percent in the Middle East and North Africa, and 70 percent in sub-Saharan Africa by 20 202. At the same time, the necessary conditions for successful social integration of young people in social structures have not been envisaged in the near future that make them a source of sociopolitical instability and conflict.
Ethnic and confessional separatism creates a serious threat to the domestic and regional stability and international security. Numerous separatist organizations operate all over the world, using financial and ideological means of the Wahhabis of Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The Internet and global communication system ensure successful organization and coordination of the separatist and opposition movements. The leaders of these organizations are able to promote their ideas and requirements and carry on their activities through the various social networks and the Internet.
The appeal of extremist ideologies has increased against the background of people's awareness of their social and political inequality in the third world countries. Formerly, these people reconciled themselves to poverty and lawlessness, as they simply did not know about another way of life and the living standards in developed countries. The welfare of the inhabitants of the advanced countries, as shown by the international media, causes envy, indignation and hatred, fanned by radical political movements.
The creation of the global information space contributed to the increased politicization of the population. People realized that the rich countries existed against the background of most countries confronting unresolved economic and social problems. All this destabilizes the socio-political situation in the countries with undeveloped political systems and institutions.
Modern crises and conflicts have much in common, despite their variety.
1. Profound contradictions formed over the centuries and based on the confrontation of values and lifestyles of peoples belonging to different civilizations. It is not only territorial disagreements, but also a clash of cultural and religious systems that are the cause of the
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
2. Support of the conflicting parties by external actors in international politics, belonging to different civilizational platforms. An example is provided by the conflict over the Falkland Islands in 1982, when the Latin American countries supported Argentina, and Western countries took the side of Britain. Also the people of Palestine feel a strong support of the Islamic world in its confrontation with Israel.
3. Situational changes of orientation of the conflict participants from the civilized basis onto factors of the current political situation in the course of the conflict. Participants in the Serbian-Croat-Muslim conflict in Yugoslavia changed their allies, depending on the political situation. The position of the West was determined by political expediency rather than closeness of civilizations.
4. Difficulties involved in a clear identification of the aggressor and the victim. The conflict in Yugoslavia has emerged between the three civilizations: Slavic-Orthodox, Catholic and Islamic, and each side saw the aggressor in its opponent.
It is noteworthy that most conflicts arise between subjects belonging to the same civilizational platform, despite their intercultural character. Among the examples of this is the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, as well as the present civil war in Syria, which occurred as a result of rivalry between the Shi'ite and Sunni branches of Islam.
"Color revolutions" as a tool
of reformatting geopolitical space
For the first time the phenomenon of "color revolutions" appeared in the late 1990's in Serbia. Then, similar events occurred in Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and in Ukraine again in 2013. 8
There have also been attempts to organize protest movements in Belarus, Uzbekistan and Russia, but they have failed due to the stability of state institutions and the lack of sufficient support from the population. Political regimes have undergone a transformation, mostly pro-Western and anti-Russian in the countries where "color revolutions" were a success. These phenomena are harmful to the national interests of Russia, and they are an effective tool to reformat the political space in the interests of external actors in international politics, holding anti-Russian positions.
An analysis of the preparation and carrying out of "color revolutions" shows that the organizers of such political actions follow certain principles during the preparatory and initial stages.
1. Reliance on non-violent forms and methods of achieving political objectives, with the use of information technologies and psychological impact on people's minds. A "legitimate" change of the regime will be implemented in the country, the cabinet of ministers will be changed, early elections will be held under the supervision of international observers as a result of the initiation of "peaceful" political actions.
2. The use of an opposition party or a social movement eager for a change, as well as elements of the lower sections of the population with unrealized ambitions as a driving force for the implementation of political transformations.
3. The use of social networks for organizing protest movements with the active involvement of the mass media to legitimize the goals and objectives that can be regarded as a special form of information warfare undertaken by external actors in international politics against the present government.
It's no secret that the main catalysts of "color revolutions" are foreign sponsors who finance youth organizations, as well as opposition
parties whose leaders support the Western model of democracy and liberal values. Activists of such "revolutions" receive financial support in the form of grants and scholarships from such organizations as the "Open Society" Institute, Harvard University, Albert Einstein Institute, International Republican Institute, National Democratic Institute (USA), International Institute on Non-Violent Conflicts, and the International Institute for Strategic studies in London3. According to MacIntyre, the growth of social tension and political upheavals should be expected if less than 20 percent4.
The weakness of the central government and its inconsequence in solving social and economic problems also contribute to the success of "color revolutions". Two "color revolutions" in Ukraine have occurred during the last ten years (2004 and 2013-2014). International organizations and Western leaders have tried in every way possible to weaken their positive results and refrained from giving real economic assistance to the country. They have obstructed the Ukrainian leadership's efforts to prevent the destructive actions of the opposition, which undermined the foundations of the political system and its democratic institutions. It is not surprising that "color revolutions" occurred in the most advanced CIS countries in terms of adherence to democratic standards: in Ukraine and Georgia, and President Askar Akayev of Kyrgyzstan was considered one of the most democratic presidents in the post-Soviet area.
The liberal media create a favorable environment for "color revolutions" in the context of social and political instability in a state; politicians and public figures of pro-Western orientation play the role of "catalyst for change," influencing people's minds in order to create a favorable background for the upcoming move to "democracy," and a crowd in the streets gets the status of "the people demanding change."
An analysis of the preparation and carrying out of "color revolutions" shows that in most cases they have evolved according to one and the same scenario, described in the book by the American political scientist J. Sharpe "From Dictatorship to Democracy," published in 19935. In his view, political struggle against the ruling regime under constitutional standards is doomed to failure. He advises to focus attention on non-violent methods of struggle against the regime through the organization of various forms of protest movements and disobedience to the authorities. "Color revolutions" represent the American technology for organization of coups d'état with the use of media and social networks, paid and controlled by international nongovernmental organizations, which are the instruments of Western influence.
According to Sharpe' scenario, a "color revolution" begins with the opposition's initialization of the delegitimization process of power. The latter in the person of officials, leaders of different levels and politicians is accused of corruption, the absence of effective social policies, as well as of authoritarian ways, unfair elections, failure to comply with the rights and freedoms of citizens, reprisals, etc. Next, according to the scenario, the opposition needs the so-called victims of power, a mandatory component of any color revolution, as their persecution discredits and prevents the authorities' actions, urging people to join the protest movement.
The formation of three driving forces of revolution takes place at the next stage: radically-minded youth, combat troops arriving from provinces to the capital, and the "creative class", consisting of representatives of small and medium-sized businesses dissatisfied with the authorities and eager for change. Events in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan serve as a vivid example. Squads, arriving from provinces to support the "revolution", as well as local nationalists, neo-fascists
and anti-Semites obeyed their "warlords," and the strength and energy of people from provinces are absorbed by the protest movement, because they do not have a shelter in the capital and could not return home.
Choosing a leader is another important factor in the organization of a "color revolution". A well-known and quite respected politician, recently departed from a high post and joined the opposition, surrounded by less-known figures, representatives of show business and sports, is the best option. Also, he should be a firm supporter of Western democratic values and freedoms, culture and lifestyle.
Scenarios of development of contemporary conflicts, crisis situations and possible ways of their settlement
The conflict potential of the modern world is one of the consequences of the Cold War and the end of confrontation between the two military-political blocs, on the one hand, and globalization of the world's information, cultural and religious areas, on the other. The principle of ethno-religious self-assertion became a significant conflict factor, more radical than self-assertion based on ideological principles in times of bipolarity.
Many states face problems of ethnic and confessional challenges over the past decade. Mass migration to Europe from developing countries, partially restrained by the policy of the European Union, poses a direct threat to identity, cultural integrity and national security of the European continent. If the cultural assimilation of migrants does not take place in a country, the potential threat of civil war arises, according to Samuel Huntington6.
According to sociological studies, assimilation of migrants takes place in the second or third generation, and they "disappear" in the total
mass of the native population, if their number is a small fraction of this population. If the proportion of migrants is growing rapidly, assimilation does not occur. When their number is close to a "critical mass" (15 percent of the population), national enclaves are formed, and their members may begin struggle for recognition of their social and political interests. The emergence of ethnic enclaves in the major cities of Russia, ethnic conflicts and the construction of mosques in areas where Muslims live are among the specific features of this phenomenon.
The above factors point to the necessity of revealing prerequisites for conflicts at early stages, when they have not yet become irreversible and can be resolved. First of all, it is related to the immigration and religious policy of a state, as well as the adaptation of immigrants to the confessional, cultural and legal environment of the host country.
As for the scenarios of the crisis, the nucleation phase of a future conflict, and the formation of its conditions are in a latent form and appear harmless at first glance. The local authorities present them as domestic incidents without ethno-religious overtones; for example, the burning of several Orthodox churches in Tatarstan.
The second stage of the crisis is the expansion of its scope, affecting the overall situation in a country. The central power has to set up special departments to stabilize the situation and to combat extremists in order to prevent escalation of the crisis.
The third stage of the crisis is characterized by extreme aggravation of the situation when the warring parties begin an open armed struggle. Illegal armed groups are formed, and terrorist and subversive acts, as well as hostage-taking are committed.
The fourth stage of the crisis is characterized by involving human rights and humanitarian organizations, and bringing diplomatic,
information, propaganda and economic pressure to bear on the country's population and leadership.
If this pressure does not lead to the desired results, and the confrontation turns into a civil war, the question of military intervention and the overthrow of the "dictatorial" regime should be forwarded to the UN Security Council.
Such events may develop according to the following scenarios after the beginning of certain actions of the parties concerned and the aggravation of contradictions.
1. It is a relatively quick victory of one side in the conflict and the defeat of the other. The events in Tunisia and Egypt serve as an example. The defeated party may again create a crisis situation to take revenge by starting a new round of confrontation. This happened in Egypt, after the "Muslim Brotherhood" grouping has come to power, and in Iraq, where the Sunni grouping, with the support of Saudi Arabia, has been waging an armed struggle against the Shi'ites, trying to restore its position in the country.
2. There is a situation of relative equality of the parties, when the conflict develops into a long armed confrontation, as it was in Libya and is happening in Syria now. The expansion of the conflict can occur through the involvement of new participants, among which are those who are trying to benefit from it, playing the role of peacekeepers.
3. The conflict settlement process begins when there is stalemate and both sides come to a conclusion about the futility of continuing the struggle. It indicates the depletion of moral, human and material resources of the parties and their awareness of the risk of a complete loss. The peaceful solution of the Cuban missile crisis and the subsequent signing of the Helsinki Accords is an example.
A peaceful solution of a conflict can be facilitated by the presence of certain overlapping interests of the warring parties.
Secondary interests, not affected by the conflict, can play a significant role in the course of its settlement. Thomas Schelling, one of the founders of conflictology, claims that "pure" conflicts are rare, when one side gets everything, and another - nothing.7 Most conflicts are different, and there is a prospect of finding a reasonable balance of interests. Realizing this fact, the warring sides can move from confrontation to a joint search for solutions.
Here are some of approaches to the conflict resolution. The principle of dilution of the parties is one of them. It has been applied in solving the conflict over the Sinai Peninsula occupied by Israel in the 1967 war.
But the principle of diluting the parties is not always effective. It often happens that the parties are interested in capturing or controlling the same objects: territories, sources of raw materials, transport, communications, access to the sea, etc. However, a solution of a conflict is possible in this case, too. The principle of mutual concessions can be implemented by appealing to independent experts for making appropriate proposals. Authoritative public figures, scientists, and international organizations can be involved as experts who would analyze the situation and offer variants of a decision allowing the parties concerned to resolve the conflict.
Contradictions between the participants in the conflict may be insurmountable at some stage. The impasse in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is an example, when a territorial claim threatens to escalate into greater conflict between the Islamic world and the West. The only way lies in mitigating the conflict through reaching agreements on minor issues which could positively affect security in the region.
Reduction of tension should precede a search of options to resolve the conflict. Steps are undertaken to de-escalate the confrontation and promote peace initiatives of one party in order to
induce the other party to follow suit. The main difficulty lies in the distrust of the participants in each other. Third-party guarantees are necessary in this case. The solution of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 is an example of the principle of de-escalation of the conflict.
A solution of territorial claims is an important aspect of conflict resolution. The struggle of nations for self-determination and formation of independent states on the territories they occupy is not seen as a territorial dispute. The population of a territory can create a subject of international law through a referendum and subsequent elections of the supreme authority, following the principle of self-determination of nations. Palestine, Kosovo, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and South Sudan are among such examples.
Territorial disputes are considered to be the "zero-sum" conflicts in international practice, because one party loses its territory and the other one gains it as a result of solution to a conflict. This variant can be avoided if the disputed territory becomes shared by the parties through creating a common economic area, an enclave or a military base. Another variant to resolve territorial dispute could be through removing the subject of it, as was the case of Damansky Island, which became part of the PRC as a result of the demarcation of the border between Russia and China.
Different approaches to the conflict resolution are intended for creating favorable conditions to settle problems at the intergovernmental level. But such emotional aspects as the sentiments of the population and its attitude to the conflict, as well as the desired way to resolve it should also be considered.
Informal contacts between representatives of the warring parties are an important factor in resolving conflicts. They have a positive impact on both the population and the warring sides. They are called "people's diplomacy" in which there is an opportunity to hold
negotiations and conferences with the participation of representatives of the public.
The systematic application of this approach greatly facilitates the work of diplomats, as it reduces the level of tension and creates an atmosphere of trust, even if results do not appear immediately.
A significant role in reducing the level of the conflict potential can be played by peacekeepers, along with international observers to preclude the military phase of the conflict. Peacekeeping involves financial, medical, food, and training assistance, as well as holding referendums and elections to ensure compliance with the agreements reached.
"Peace enforcement" is applied when one party tries to resolve the conflict by military means, actively opposing the efforts to settle it politically. In this case, peacemaking takes the form of a military operation, as it was in the defense of South Ossetia from the Georgian aggression in August 2008. A military operation may be aimed at ending armed clashes between the parties and curbing the aggressor and establishing peace.
Conflict prevention and crisis management
Management of a modern state and international systems is anticrisis at all development stages a priori. Politicians at all levels require the ability to see the approach of a crisis in time, and take adequate management decisions. Among the most important elements of crisis management are diagnosis and preventive sanitation of crisis tendencies and phenomena. Diagnosis makes it possible to get reliable information about the real purpose and capabilities of the opposing sides. This will help form a reflective model of crisis management.
Crisis management is defined as a system of measures and methods for diagnosis, detection and neutralization of the causes of crisis in order to overcome its consequences.
The crisis management system should be flexible enough to respond quickly to emerging threats and challenges, adapt to changes in the socio-political environment, as well as to have the ability to effectively use the potential of geopolitical and informal methods of control at the disposal of a state.
The time factor should be taken into account because it is especially significant in the period of emergence and development of the crisis tendencies and phenomena.
These features of the mechanism of crisis management determine the solution of such problems as timely recognition of symptoms and causes of the approaching crisis, as well as the classification and elaboration of measures to overcome it.
The issue of conflict prevention and crisis management is relevant because to prevent these phenomena is much easier than to stop them. The purpose of preventive action is timely recognition of signs, the nature and causes of a conflict, as well as their initiators and driving forces. The socio-political development of public and international systems cannot be stopped, as well as crisis phenomena, inseparably associated with them, which take the form of conflict. But their destructive manifestations of violence, loss of life, and damage to property, public interests and values, should be prevented.
Efforts should be directed at the prevention of violence, its uncontrolled escalation and also at reorientation to a peaceful solution of the problem, depending on the nature of a conflict and its origin and development. There are two types of prevention: preventing a conflict at an early stage and preventing its uncontrolled development after its occurrence.
Prevention efforts to resolve conflict and crisis situations should be aimed at avoiding escalation of violence right up to the armed confrontation between the parties or mass protest demonstrations. It so often happens that one of the participants in the conflict does not attempt to normalize relations and does not wish to resolve it with the opposite side through negotiations.
Shuttle diplomacy, mediation efforts of public and religious figures, observer missions, peacekeeping forces, military exercises in regions bordering on conflict zones -- these are examples of actions to prevent conflicts and crisis situations. All these measures should be carried out before the turning of a conflict into an armed confrontation between the parties.
The strategy of early warning of crises should use a monitoring system for preventing potential conflicts, which will be able to predict and identify their development. The best period of monitoring a conflict is its latent phase, since there is every possibility to prevent its development by a catastrophic scenario.
Humanitarian organizations and international agencies can deliver the most accurate information on the issue, and arrange personal contacts and intermediary functions in conflict areas. This activity can be carried on in cooperation with the media and research organizations.
Preventive measures may include a mission for identifying and investigating the factors of the impending conflict, its limits and the extent of contradictions. Obtained information shall be used by the expert community to organize negotiations between the participants in a potential conflict.9
The involvement of international organizations, providing financial and technical support to intermediaries and negotiators, as well as sending peacekeepers to areas of a potential conflict is feasible
at the next stages. All these measures give time to seek a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
A system analysis of the root causes of the situation based on the conflicting interests of the parties and the asymmetry of their relationship is made at the stage of preventing the uncontrolled development of the conflict.
Large-scale preventive measures include a study of the causes of the uneven development of regions and their ethno-religious communities, the characteristics of socio-political and cultural relations between them, taking into account the social inequality of the population of these regions and the activities of their authorities.10
The result of the preventive measures can be reflected in the economic development program of the conflict regions, the mechanisms of resolving conflicts, peacekeeping actions to establish intercultural contacts, and the creation of bodies to prevent and resolve conflicts. Among additional measures mention should be made of promotion of national and religious concord, and the creation of mechanisms for the peaceful and constructive division of political power in an entire state or in a specific region.
Notes
Lebedeva M.M. Mirovaya politika [World Politics]. Textbook / M.M. Lebedeva; Ministry of Education. - M.: Aspect Press, 2004. - P. 23.
Borodunova E. Molodezh v stranah BlizhnegoVostoka: Sotsialno-politicheskie i economicheskie posledstviya bystrogo demograficheskogo rosta. [Youth in the Middle East: Socio-political and economic consequences of rapid demographic growth.] Faculty of Politics, SU HSE; scientific leader E.M. Scherbakova // Demoscope Weekly: website. 2010 March 22 - April 4. № 415-416 URL:// www. demoscope.ru/weekly/2010/0415/student03.php (access date: 22.01.2013.) Popov O. Rossiyskie pravozaschitnye organizatsii i "zapadnye" pravozaschitnye fondy [Russian human rights organizations and "Western" human rights funds ] / Oleg Popov // Siberian Center for Political Studies: website. 2008. March 16.
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URL:http://sibcenter.info/geopolitics/2008/03/rossijskie-pravozashhitnye-organi-zacii-i-zapadnye-pravozashhitnye-fondy.html (access date: 29.01.2013.) Panov V. Miagkaia cila krushit Ukrainu. Prozapadnye NPO I podgotovka gosudarstvennogo perevorota v strane / Valery Panov // CentrAzia: website. 2014. February 4. URL: http://centrasia.ru/newsA.php?st=1391492580HYPERLINK "HYPERLINK" (access date: 06.02.2014.)
McIntyre R. Sotsialnaya politika v stranah s perehodnoy ekonomikoy v aspekte razvitiiya chelovecheskih resursov [Social policy in transition countries in terms of human resource development] / Robert McIntyre // Problems of forecasting. 2002. № 2. P. 142-150.
G. Sharp. From Dictatorship to Democracy. A Conceptual Framework for
Liberation / Gene Sharp; the Albert Einstein Institution// SlideShare: website. P. 72.
URL: http://www.aeinstein.org/book-store (access date: 06.02.2014.)
The Clash of Civilizations? Samuel Huntington // website. 2007. January 20. URL:
http: //gtmarket.ru/expertize/2007/2498 (access date: 10.04.2008.)
Schelling T. Strategiya konflikta [The Strategy of Conflict] / Thomas Schelling;
translation from English T. Daniel; edited by Y. Kuznetsov, K. Sonin. - M.:
IRISEN, 2007. - P. 109-111.
Miall H., Rambsbotham O., Woodhouse T. Contemporary Conflict Resolution / Hugh Miall, Oliver Rambsbotham, Tom Woodhouse. - London: Polity Press, 1999. - P. 97.
Preventing Deadly Conflict / Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict. -New York: Carnegie Corporation of New York, 1997. - P. 40. Miall H., Rambsbotham O., Woodhouse T. Op. cit. - P. 97.
"Problemy natsionalnoi strategii," Moscow, 2014, N 4(25), pp. 136-151.
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Safiullina-Al-Ansi,
Ph. D. (Philology), Russian Islamic Institute (Kazan) KHIZB UT-TAHRIR IN THE REPUBLIC OF TATARSTAN
A little over a year ago the residents of the Republic of Tatarstan entered into a new reality, that of mutual distrust and alienation, which began on August 19, 2012, after the attempt on the life of the Mufti of the republic Ildus Faizov and the assassination of his deputy Valiulla
