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IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE FUTURE OF PLANET EARTH. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
M.Yu. Starshin, Sustainability Manager TITAN 2 IC ICTAS ANONIM SIRKETI (Turkey, Mersin)
DOI:10.24412/2500-1000-2024-10-3-156-161
Abstract. Global climate change poses both threats and opportunities for humanity. This article is actual and aims to analyse the risks and opportunities of global warming and identify ways to ensure sustainable development for future generations. In this article, we considered how climate change affects different countries, groups of people and ecosystems.
Keywords: global warming, climate change, sustainable development, industrial safety, greenhouse gas emissions, occupational health and safety, innovation.
Global climate change: causes and consequences.
At present, the main cause of dramatic climate change on the planet is considered to be anthropogenic factor - the result of human activity impact on the environment. The main activities are: extraction of hydrocarbons from the planet's subsoil for their subsequent combustion, cutting down trees, increasing livestock and rice farming, burning forests, production of freons and tropo-spheric ozone, etc. These activities lead to an increase in the emission of greenhouse gases, which block the heat rising from the planet's surface, causing the land, water and atmosphere to heat up even more. Thus creating a "greenhouse effect." Scientists of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have conducted a number of studies [1], which have shown a direct correlation between the increasing rate of fossil energy use with the beginning of industrialisation in the world and the increase in the average global temperature of the planet. This
is a natural consequence, as humanity required more energy due to the exponential growth of the planet's population.
According to the special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels (IPCC) [2], humanity is currently witnessing the consequences of global warming by 1 °C, which are reflected in more extreme weather conditions, sea level rise and so on. It is expected that between 2030 and 2052 the world will feel the effects of warming by 1.5 degrees, and by 2100 the global temperature may increase by 3-4 degrees, which will lead to irreversible consequences.
According to open data for 2022 [3] the largest countries in terms of CO2 emissions are the largest producers and consumers of goods: China (32.93%), USA (12.55%), 27 countries of the European Union (7.33%), India (7%), Russia (5.13%) - collectively emitting about 65% of CO2 from the global figures (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. Top 5 largest countries in terms of CO2
Despite the contradictions between politicians, scientists and society, we can see with our own eyes the negative impacts on climate and human health that have increased in recent years. This is particularly noticeable in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, which had a colonial past. Typically, these countries have notable problems with all 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals in addition to climate issues. This is primarily due to poverty and low economic growth.
The main drivers of climate change.
In addition to the anthropogenic factor, there are also natural factors [5] that can influence changes in the planet's climate. Some of the main factors are the shift in the earth's orbit, volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity.
Our star works as a huge thermonuclear reactor, in the depths of which reactions between at-
oms are constantly taking place under the influence of the electromagnetic field of the star itself. Periodically there are flares on the surface of the Sun, solar activity increases, which leads to a warming of the climate on Earth for a short period of time.
There are more variables involved in shifting the earth's orbit as a result of other celestial bodies. Our planet is affected by the Moon, the Sun, and the planets of the solar system. The cyclical fluctuations of the Earth's orbit due to changes in the location of celestial bodies to it are called Milankovitch cycles (see Figure 2). Ultimately, this leads to changes in sunlight at mid-latitudes and, as a consequence, to climate change in the direction of cooling.
Figure 2. Cyclic oscillations of the Earth's orbit or Milankovitch cycles
Volcanic eruptions release huge amounts of sulphur, resulting in the formation of sulphuric acid in the atmosphere, which is a screen for sunlight in the stratosphere.
Climate change impacts on the biosphere and human health.
Analysts [6] say that at the same rate of global warming, i.e. maintaining pessimistic projections with melting glaciers in Antarctica, the Arctic and Greenland, whose contribution to the total glacial water level is 78, 18 and 11 per cent respectively, the world's ocean level will rise by 1 m in 100 years. In comparison, global sea levels
have risen by only 1 metre in the last 18,000 years. In the future, this could flood coastal cities such as Los Angeles and Amsterdam, as well as cause flooding in Kaliningrad and St Petersburg. In the USA, the states of Texas, Louisiana (see Figure 3) and Florida will be most affected. These phenomena are aggravated by the negative movement (sinking) of the Earth's crust [7]. This
Climate change is contributing to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts. These events can destroy infrastructure, cause economic losses and lead to humanitarian crises. For example, severe flooding in some regions has resulted in epidemics of infectious diseases such as cholera.
There are also risks on the mainland, such as increased surge waves and tsunami heights during stormy weather. It is not uncommon for storm waves to cause a surge wave to travel along a river channel far inland and cause severe flooding. In Bangladesh, for example, the wave travels 160 kilometers inland from the ocean coast.
Very dangerous due to the lack of accurate forecasts are unpredictable climate change, which will lead to uneven distribution of precipitation and natural phenomena on the planet, river outflow, change of operation mode of hydroelectric power plants. Due to the lack of analytical systems that can quickly provide accurate climate forecasts - this can lead to damage to human health and property, up to the loss of homes and jobs. Flooding of fertile lands, long dry periods can lead to food crisis and social upheaval in certain regions.
Finally, climate change affects people's mental health. Stress caused by natural disasters, loss of housing and livelihoods can lead to increased levels of anxiety and depression.
is especially characteristic of the Netherlands (40-60 cm/year). Also, the increase in water temperature affects marine flora and fauna, disrupting the usual migration routes of fish and other marine life. This, in turn, can lead to a decline in fish stocks and worsen food security for countries dependent on fisheries.
If global sea levels continue to rise, these phenomena could spread to the entire globe by 2100.
In 2022, the journal Nature Climate Change published an article [8] in which scientists from the University of Leeds showed models of the development of permafrost degradation events in the peatlands of Northern Europe and Western Siberia until the end of this century. In the worst-case scenario, rapid global warming will potentially lead to the release of 39 billion tonnes of hydrocarbons and peat gases, predominantly methane, from frozen soils. The spontaneously released greenhouse gases could set off a chain reaction and dramatically increase global temperatures.
Based on the described risks, we can conclude that at the moment it is difficult to make more accurate forecasts of how the greenhouse effect will affect the biosphere, as well as what long-term effects humanity will get from it. Therefore, even the most negative scenarios should be considered and preventive measures should be developed to manage emerging opportunities and risks of their realisation, both negative and positive.
Working conditions under climate change. Temperature rise and impact on productivity.
In 2021, researchers from K.A. Timiryazev Russian State Agrarian University, Professor of the Department of Labour Protection, Doctor of Technical Sciences Shirokov Y.A. and Associate Professor of the Department of Labour Protection, Candidate of Technical Sciences Ivaki-
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30 20 10 0—1 5 oil 10 km 15 km 20 km 25 cm 30 km 33 km 40 km 45 km 50 km 55 km 60 km 65 km 70 bd km
Figure 3. Terrain profile of the state of Louisiana (USA) above sea level
na E.G. conducted an in-depth analysis [9] of published papers on the topic "Productivity and working conditions". They concluded that in the Russian economy almost 39% of workplaces do not meet sanitary and hygienic requirements. When the temperature rises from 26 to 29 degrees Celsius, labour productivity decreases by 13%, and when the temperature rises to 33 degrees Celsius, it decreases by 35%. Workplaces located outdoors in hot climates are most at risk.
As we can see, extreme weather conditions can not only reduce productivity, but can also cause irreparable damage to health.
Psychological aspects: stress and adaptation to new conditions.
Global warming and abrupt changes in climatic conditions can not only damage the techno-sphere, but also have a powerful psychological impact on humanity. Individuals may feel anxious, fearful or deeply depressed by the realisation of change. Climate change can cause conflicts over resources such as water and land, which can lead to social tensions and violence, which in turn affects mental health.
Global warming can also change people's priorities and values, encouraging them to live more sustainable lifestyles and care for nature.
Innovations and technologies to enhance sustainability
Mankind is already using a number of methods [10] to combat global warming. For example, Swiss glaciologists, who are anxiously watching the death of Alpine glaciers, are already resorting to highly unusual measures. For example, the famous Rhone glacier, which gives rise to one of the largest rivers in the region, is covered with a white cloth that reflects part of the sun's rays and, according to measurements, can slow down melting by as much as 70 per cent. Nature conservationists in Italy and Germany are also using such covers, and Danish geologist Jason Box proposes to deploy them on one of the largest glaciers on the planet, in Greenland.
The Swiss company Climeworks is particularly noteworthy in this respect, having built three plants to capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. It should be noted that the first plant absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, Climeworks launched in 2017. According to experts' forecasts, the company can pump out up to 900 tonnes of carbon dioxide every year [11].
There are also many grandiose proposals from climatologists of various countries that require huge financial outlays with questionable effectiveness and insufficiently studied impact on the planet's biocenosis. For example, the creation of mirrors in the Earth's orbit or an air fleet of ships to create clouds that will reflect part of the sunlight. Or total gene modification, which would reduce methane emissions in the digestion of cattle, and improve the carbon sequestration capacity of photosynthesis in plants.
These projects are very ambitious. We must first consider whether they will disturb the delicate balance of the planet's biosphere before implementing them.
I propose to consider particularly promising technological solutions that can change the future of the planet, these are artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the most promising technologies that can help fight global warming. It can help predict climate change and determine the most effective ways to combat global warming. Machine learning algorithms can analyse large amounts of data about climate change and use this information to create accurate predictions. For example, the use of machine learning algorithms can create climate models that can help predict which regions will be most vulnerable to climate change and what measures need to be taken to protect the environment. Moreover, with the help of an extensive natural activity monitoring system, Starlink satellite modules with high response and advanced AI, it is possible to organise a planetary system for monitoring and responding to emergencies that have a great impact on the biosphere, such as tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, surge waves, forest fires, etc. On the other hand, the trend towards increasing AI computing power will lead to accelerated growth of energy consumption.
The Internet of Things is another promising technology that can help fight global warming. The Internet of Things can be used to create smart cities that use resources efficiently and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. For example, the use of smart sensors in cities can help optimise traffic and improve air quality. Cities can also use the internet of things to manage energy consumption and optimise waste management. Automated systems will save natural resources for humanity offline.
Conclusions tegration of environmental, social and economic
The largest contributors to global warming aspects it is possible to create a sustainable work-will continue to be construction, transport, agri- ing environment, contributing not only to inculture, industry and of course energy, which is creased labour productivity, but also to the im-the link. The challenges that these sectors must provement of people's quality of life. It is im-address have their own specificity. portant to realise that adaptation to climate
Based on the analysis of various open sources, change is not only a challenge, but also an oppor-we can conclude that climate change is a com- tunity to develop new approaches and solutions plex problem that requires joint efforts of the that can lead humanity to a more sustainable fu-state, business and society. Only through the in- ture.
Библиографический список
1. Ученые NASA доказали: индустриализация изменила климат планеты. - [Электронный ресурс]. - Режим доступа: https://m.hightech.plus/2021/04/05/uchenie-nasa-dokazali-industrializaciya-izmenila-klimat-planeti (дата обращения 01.09.2024).
2. Межправительственная группа экспертов по изменению климата [ВикипедиЯ]. - [Электронный ресурс]. - Режим доступа: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9C%D0%93%D0%AD%D0%98%D0%9A. (дата обращения 26.08.2024).
3. CO2 Emissions by Country 2024 [WORLD POPULATION REVIEW]. - [Электронный ресурс].
- Режим доступа: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/co2-emissions-by-country (дата обращения 26.08.2024).
4. Парижское соглашение по климату как величайшая афера века, или Климатгейт [ФОНД СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКОЙ КУЛЬТУРЫ] - [Электронный ресурс]. - Режим доступа: https://www.fondsk.ru/news/2021/02/28/parizhskoe-soglashenie-po-klimatu-kak-velichajshaja-afera-veka-ili-klimatgejt.html (дата обращения 27.08.2024).
5. Пять причин изменения климата Земли (кроме человека) [РБК Тренды]. - [Электронный ресурс]. - Режим доступа: https://trends.rbc.ru/trends/green/5f2060bd9a7947e7391657cc (дата обращения 27.08.2024).
6. Ученые рассказали о том, какие области будут затоплены при повышении уровня океана [Дзен]. - [Электронный ресурс]. - Режим доступа: https://dzen.ru/a/XWdemQX9mACuHeiP (дата обращения 27.08.2024).
7. Урок по теме «Изменение уровня Мирового океана и его последствия» [ИНФОУРОК]. -[Электронный ресурс]. - Режим доступа: https://infourok.ru/urok-po-teme-izmenenie-urovnya-mirovogo-okeana-i-ego-posledstviya-288361.html (дата обращения 28.08.2024).
8. Ученые оценили, как потепление влияет на торфяники вечной мерзлоты [Рамблер Новости].
- [Электронный ресурс]. - Режим доступа: https://news.rambler.ru/weather/48300898-uchenye-otsenili-kak-poteplenie-vliyaet-na-torfyaniki-vechnoy-merzloty/ (дата обращения 29.08.2024).
9. Широков Ю.А., Ивакина Е.Г. Производительность и условия труда: связь и перспективы улучшения // Экономика труда. - 2021. - Том 8. - № 3. - С. 251-260. -DOI: 10.18334/et.8.3.111812.
10. Пять невероятных проектов для борьбы с потеплением [Элементы, «Популярная механика», №11, 2020]. - [Электронный ресурс]. - Режим доступа: https://elementy.ru/nauchno-populyarnaya_biblioteka/435663/Pyat_neveroyatnykh_proektov_dlya_borby_s_potepleniem (дата обращения 01.09.2024).
11. 20 инноваций, которые спасут нашу планету [Naked Science]. - [Электронный ресурс]. -Режим доступа: https://naked-science.ru/article/hi-tech/20-innovatsi (дата обращения 01.09.2024).
ВЛИЯНИЕ ГЛОБАЛЬНОГО ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА НА БУДУЩЕЕ ПЛАНЕТЫ ЗЕМЛЯ. РЕКОМЕНДАЦИИ ДЛЯ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ
М.Ю. Старшин, менеджер по устойчивому развитию TITAN 2 IC ICTAS ANONIM SIRKETI (Турция, г. Мерсин)
Аннотация. Глобальное изменение климата представляет собой как угрозы, так и возможности для человечества. Данная статья весьма актуальна и направлена на анализ рисков и возможностей глобального потепления, а также на выявление путей для обеспечения устойчивого развития будущих поколений. В данной статье рассмотрено, как изменение климата влияет на различные страны, группы людей и экосистемы.
Ключевые слова: глобальное потепление, изменение климата, устойчивое развитие, промышленная безопасность, эмиссия парниковых газов, охрана и гигиена труда, инновации.
