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The mass media. There are 1,243 units of the mass media in the country: 704 newspapers, 254 magazines, 165 Internet sites, 63 TV stations, 36 radio stations, and four information agencies. Forty-three percent of printed publications, 53 percent of TV channels and 85 percent of radio channels belong to the non-governmental sector.
The number of people using the Internet reaches 7.7 million.
"Etnopolititicheskaya situatsiya v Rossii i sopredelnykh gosudarstvakh v 2011 godu," Moscow, 2012, pp. 595-603.
Jawed Zafar,
Political analyst (Afghanistan) (Original article written by the author in English) GEOPOLITICS OF U.S. WALKING OUT FROM AFGHANISTAN
After 13 (15 in 2014 at the time of departure) years of unsuccessful war, U.S. withdrawal may cause a major political, security and strategic vacuum in Afghanistan, which may not only further deteriorate the situation in the country, but also cause many problems in neighboring and regional states. These states have their own political, economic and security interests and objectives in Afghanistan. Therefore these states will try to influence Afghanistan in many ways after the departure of the U.S. Therefore the interests, role and strategy of Pakistan, India, Russia, Iran, China and Turkey has been analyzed in detail in this paper. This paper also discusses different partnerships which emerge in Afghanistan after the exit of the U.S. and the allied forces.
As the date of U.S. exit from Afghanistan is coming nearer, doubt and perplexity are also rising because none is ready to believe that the U.S. will leave Afghanistan without achieving the declared and
undeclared goals even after smoking nearly one trillion dollars and thousands of deaths. Though alleged killing of Osama can provide a political reason to walk out but it was not the only aim of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF).
One of the prime objects of the U.S. military action in Afghanistan was to remove Taliban and their ability as resistance force. President George Bush announced this on the eve of Afghan war on Sunday, October 7, 2001.
"On my order the United States military have begun strikes against Al-Qaeda terrorist camps and military installations and of Taliban regime.
These carefully targeted actions are designed to disrupt the Afghan terrorist base of operation and attack the military capability of Taliban."
Bush also spoke that now Taliban will pay the price because they did not accept U.S. demand. It was clear in the speech that as well as with destruction of Al-Qaeda network, removing of Taliban was also prime objective of NATO's prime intention. When OEF was declared it was not mentioned how long it will go and how success would be measured, though Pakistan's president Pervez Musharraf assured Pakistani people the action would be soft and would end very soon. But he did not describe what he meant by "soft and soon." U.S. also assured that military action would be against Al-Qaeda and Taliban and civilians would be safe, but casualties of innocent civilians were very high in comparison of militants as UN described it as unacceptably high. After completion of ten years of war in Afghanistan, former top U.S. military commander General Stanley McChrystal stated that "allies are only 50 percent of the way," he also claimed that "we did not know enough and still do not know enough." He also raised the question about approach to Afghanistan as he boldly stated: "Most of
us, me included, had a very superficial understanding of the situation and history, and we had a frighteningly simplistic view of recent history, the last fifty years."
One of the leading think tanks of U.S. on foreign policy "Council on Foreign Relations" also described "there is no certain end in sight for U.S. involvement and concern going over the United States capacity to bring stability to the country and region even after 2000 U.S. soldiers and cost of $444 billion" (Jayshree Bajoiria, 2011). It is clear that leading intellectuals on foreign policy experts are losing their patience and declaring whole Afghan war as failure and event they are blaming U.S. for not having capacity to bring peace and stability in Afghanistan and region. This is direct question mark on U.S. status of peace guarantor in Afghanistan and region. If now U.S. has not guts and ability to bring peace in Afghanistan and region, what should U.S. do on this juncture? Leave Afghanistan and region or develop the ability as U.S. claimed. As the U.S. and allies facing deep financial crises and public is also has been tried, so they cannot go ahead to maintain their pressure and presence in region and Afghanistan at required level, as well as to develop the capacity and ability to maintain peace and stability in the region is concern all best possible efforts have been made by U.S. and allies (NATO) with failure.
Beyond the declared official goals U.S. also defined some hidden (real) aims in Afghanistan also as many experts suggest. Through its presence in Afghanistan and region U.S. got the opportunity to create military crescent surrounding its arch rivals as Russia, China and Iran. One of the objectives was to weaken the influence and interactions of Islamic revivalists of the south, west and Central Asian region. Other major objective was also to control energy resources and their transportation in the region especially from Central Asia and Iran. Though U.S. does not need Central Asian energy resources for its
domestic consumption but control over these resources may be used as political weapon against producers and consumers of these resources.
Now it is evident that U.S. has failed not only in its military goals but also in its hidden agenda. Only secret raid in Pakistan and killing of Osama can be counted a minor success.
Really Walk Out?
So the 64-million dollar question is whenever U.S. and allies could not achieve even a single goal completely after ten years of efforts, would U.S. really leave Afghanistan and the region? If U.S. would leave Afghanistan and the region U.S. would lose historic opportunity to dominate in South and Central Asia and would also lose its grip in West Asia as well. Not even U.S. would lose opportunity but its image as global leader and superpower would diminish. This also motivates big regional powers like Russia and China to extend their influence in the area and beyond. More importantly, this variant would cast a deep shadow on future strategic and defense vision of U.S. armed forces. Question would be also raised on NATO relevance. Suppose just after evacuation from Afghanistan in 2014 if any big or like 9/11 event occurred in U.S. and allied country, would they be able to launch operation or wars like 2001 in Afghanistan. If yes, they have shown their failure in Afghanistan, so it would not be possible to assure and persuade their people for another long and pre-decided defeated war. If not, it will create their image of banana peel. So just after withdrawal from Afghanistan and the region U.S., would be in lose-lose situation.
If not Withdrawal Completely
Before leaving Afghanistan U.S. is working on two fronts, first it is trying to naturalize Taliban and other militant groups through talks
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and dialogue. U.S. has promoted Taliban as "not U.S. enemy." U.S. also mentioned that U.S. never declared Taliban as enemy in the past. U.S. vice president Biden expressed "That's critical. There is not a single statement that the president has ever made in any of our policy assertions that the Taliban is our enemy because it threatens U.S. interests." On other strategy U.S. is conducting strategic dialogue with Karzai government to find out the ways to maintain its presence in major bases even after evacuation from Afghanistan in 2014. Consequently, U.S. and Afghanistan signed a strategic pact in Afghanistan on May 2, 2012 which allows U.S. to maintain its presence in Afghanistan beyond 2012's so-called withdrawal. The signed agreement stated that "Afghanistan shall provide U.S. forces with continued access to and the use of Afghan facilities through 2014 and beyond as may be agreed in Bilateral Security Agreement for the purpose ot combating al-Qaeda and its affiliates, training the Afghan National Security forces, and other mutually determined missions to advance shared security interests."
No doubt U.S. got the success to maintain its presence even at minimum level, now U.S. presence would be prolonged indefinitely in the region and the region would be new battle ground for new cold war, because all regional countries as China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan do not see U.S. presence in their favor and they would try to diminish U.S. presence and influence in the region. As all U.S. rivals and potential rivals exist in this region, U.S. would try to weaken them by making its presence in the region that would also help to maintain its single and sole superpower status in the world. U.S. can use rogue and anti-nation elements of these countries to weaken these countries, as Baluchistan issues can be used to pressurize and weaken Pakistan. U.S. can support rogue elements of Xinjiang and Tibet against China and Chechen and Central Asian militants can be supported to work against Russia. As
Baluchistan issue was raised in U.S. Senate and increasing violence in Tibet and Xinjiang in recent years can be seen in this perspective. Hence, Taliban give up or not, if U.S. presence would be continuing regional security of Central, South and West Asia would be on risk.
If Exit
If talks with Taliban fail and U.S. decided to withdraw from Afghanistan at maximum level, it would be last nail in the U.S. supremacy. This evacuation put question mark on U.S. ability to intervene in different global issues militarily. This is interesting to know that how Taliban and other players of the region as Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and Turkey would react.
This is very strange to know that after U.S. and NATO withdraw, what would be Taliban's strategy to capture and control Afghanistan. Taliban have four options in their post U.S. withdrawal scenario.
1. To start military strikes against Kabul government and try to capture Kabul and later whole Afghanistan as they did in 1995 - 2000. If Taliban would adopt this policy certainly it would fail because this time Kabul government is not so weak and it is democratically elected government. Their keen supporters as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are not in that position to support of in 1995 manner. This time Pakistan is also suspicious about Taliban as leaked report indicated. But if Taliban assured Pakistan to protect Pakistan all type of interest, then Pakistan can play some card in favor of Taliban.
2. If Taliban realized that it is just impossible to capture and control Kabul alone, who would be partner of Taliban and what would be methods. Taliban can shake hands with Hikmatyar's Hizb-e-Islami and other anti-U.S. and Karzai groups, specially with Pashtun groups. Karzai can also come with Taliban if he would feel any threat from
northern alliance to his chair. Karzai's efforts to talk with Taliban may be seen in this context.
3. Taliban can create political party by proxy and openly win the support of majority of Pashtun, if they would participate in political process in any manner Pakistan and China can support to win political power.
4. If all above options fail Taliban can launch long (enduring) offensive until capture whole Afghanistan or completely wipe out from Afghanistan.
Pakistan Role in Post-U.S. Afghanistan
Pakistan always considers Afghanistan as strategic depth in any war and crisis and still talked in this manner. Consequently, any antiPakistan or less friendly Afghanistan will hit Pakistani interests in Afghanistan and the region, and Pakistan will not accept any that type of Afghanistan. Any anti-Afghanistan would also be threat for Pakistani internal security. Especially India's involvement in Afghanistan creates anxiety in Pakistani establishment.
Pakistan facing energy and economy crises and its reach to Central Asia and beyond can resolve both problems, in this scenario also a friendly and establish Afghanistan is essential to achieve economic goals. Afghanistan is also sitting on trillion of mineral resources, and if Afghanistan would be friendly and established that can help Pakistan in great manner to directly engage in developing these mineral resources and provide different types of facilities as transport, transit, technical and labor support and can provide coastal facilities to support these resources, therefore northern alliance led government and any that type of government would harm Pakistan's interest in Afghanistan, so Pakistan would try to manage a pro-Islamabad Kabul, if Pakistan fails to manage any pro-Pakistan establishment in
Afghanistan, then Pakistan would try to unstable to Afghanistan at that level that could not be used by any anti-Pakistan player like India.
Taliban also know that even after all mistrust and clashes, only Pakistan can provide solid support to maintain their presence and influence in Afghanistan so Taliban (and Taliban-type militant) would be all time favorite for Pakistani policy-makers and political and military establishment.
Chinese Role and Engagement
in Post-U.S. Afghanistan
China always stated "Independent, Stable and Free from outside interference Afghanistan." China is cooperating with Afghanistan to some extent and enjoying benefits from Afghanistan's mine industry and other investments. But long time U.S. presence is not in favor of China.
There are three dimensions of Chinese strategy in Afghanistan.
U.S. presence in Afghanistan, Central and South Asia is certainly against Chinese interests as experts argue that U.S. wants to contain China to maintain its global supremacy. U.S. military presence near the Chinese border and in top priority area for defense and energy strategy would encourage rivals of China to act against Chinese interests. U.S. military presence in the region would be pressurizing China not to take any aggressive or offensive steps to achieve its foreign policy or military goals. Except long-term presence in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia, the new military doctrine of U.S. in South Pacific in which U.S. would increase its presence in that region as a tactic to cover Chinese from both sides.
China does not see Taliban or Islamic forces in its support and U.S. presence in this region contained this problem at some level. As China is facing separatist movement in Xinjiang and Tibet many
elements of East Tibetan Islamic Movement (TIM) have support and training bases in Afghanistan, Central Asia and in Pakistan as some news reports indicated. U.S. evacuation and shrinking presence can boost up new sprite in anti-Chinese elements. But other side of coin is that U.S. is using these forces to contain China also. Reports revealed violence and attacks on Chinese police in Xinjiang have increased in the last ten years as U.S. reached in the region. So if U.S. will continue to stay in the region, it may use these groups to weaken China.
No doubt if Taliban and like-minded groups dominate in post-U.S. Afghanistan, and Chinese militant groups can find support and aid in Afghanistan and the region, but as China has successfully contained these in pre-U.S. presence periods China can tackle Taliban in post-U.S. situation. If U.S. can conduct talks with Taliban, China can also establish official relations with Taliban and offer all type of help to reconstruct Afghanistan and to accept their control over Kabul, if they assure China not to provide and support anti-Chinese elements. On this juncture Taliban also must realize of their purpose is dominant in Afghanistan it will not be possible without China, Russia and Pakistan and they would have to avoid support to Xinjiang and Chechnya separatists. There is no doubt they should raise human right-related issues in natural way but to provide support to anti-Chinese, Russia, Central Asia and Iran factions not only would threaten their influence in Afghanistan, but their legitimacy also. Pakistan would also not support them to work against Chinese and Russian interests.
The third dimension is about energy and other material resources in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Since China is second largest and fastest economy in the world and has to import more than fifty percent of its total oil consumption and big amounts of other resources to feed its more than 1.5 billion population, and to maintain economic growth. China also is expected to import 85 percent of its oil needs in 2020.
Central Asian hydrocarbon and Afghan mineral resources can play important role in this regard. Only Turkmenistan's one gas project can fulfill fifty percent of Chinese demand. Turkmenistan also has the fourth largest gas reserves in the world, which can be exploited by China. China is also deeply engaged in other Central Asian countries -Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and invested billions of dollars; security of pipeline from Central Asia to China is major concern of Chinese policy. So not only security and political interests, but vital economic goals of China are at stake in Afghanistan and in the Central Asian region. Therefore to secure economic and energy interests and curb the influence of Xinjiang and Tibet separatists is top priority of China. Though China has not good gesture about Taliban but if they (Taliban) assured China to protect Chinese interests in Afghanistan and the region, China would give priority to Taliban in place of U.S. military presence in the region.
Russian Engagement in Post-NATO
(U.S.) Afghanistan
Russian goals in Afghanistan are nearly similar to those of
China.
Russia does not want U.S. domination is the region, especially in its backyard Central Asia because U.S. presence limits Moscow's influence in the region and beyond.
This is the golden opportunity for Russia to strengthen its role in South and Central Asia, and also in the Middle East, to some extent. If Russia successfully makes an alliance with Pakistan, China and Iran, Russia can emerge as a regional leader. Pakistan is already fed up with U.S. Iran is enemy number one of U.S. and wants to keep U.S. away from the region, and China also knows that only Russia has the ability and courage to overcome the U.S. influence in the region as Russia has
all instruments like military, economy and technology. Russia is the immediate neighbor of the region and any upheaval in it certainly would have disastrous impact on Russia. The Central and South Asian region may emerge as top priority in Russian foreign policy. Russia would prefer Northern Alliance in Afghanistan because it is reliable and trusted enemy of Taliban. Northern Alliance also does not support any anti-Russian militants in Afghanistan and Central Asia. But if Northern Alliance loses control over Kabul and inclined toward U.S. or shifts control to Pakistan or Taliban, then Russian policy would be in buck.
As Taliban would be indispensible for Afghanistan's stability and if Taliban would follow its old policy to provide head out and training to Chechen and Central Asian militants it will not be acceptable for Russia but if this time Taliban adopted pragmatic policy and assured Russia not to support any anti-Russian elements, especially Chechen militants, then Russia can come negotiate with Taliban. Drug trafficking from Afghanistan is serious problem for Russia. Taliban curbed it very successfully during their rule in Kabul. Russia can support Taliban for this reason also. Pakistan is going to play important role in post-U.S. Afghanistan. Therefore Russia is improving relations with Pakistan. Russian companies' interests in Pakistani energy sector especially in pipeline from Iran which is under sanctions by U.S. can be seen in the background.
Though this is the golden opportunity to Russia to strengthen its role in South and Central Asia, but Russian attitude and behavior is major constraint to play the leading role in its backyard and near it, because Russia never perceives itself as the leader in the region and in global perspective after the Cold war. If Russia successfully builds alliance with Pakistan, China and Iran, Russia can emerge as a leader in Central Asia, South Asia, and even in the Middle East, to some extent.
Pakistan is already fed up with U.S. and can come forward to establish strategic relations with Russia and Iran.
. If Russia shows confidence to engage deeply and for a long time in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia (AFPACA) region, Russia has all instruments as military, economic and technological to prove its leadership. Powerful Chinese presence would certainly boost up Russian confidence as China is emerging prime rival in international politics and economy. Russia can use SCO and CSTO to replace NATO in any future crises and not to allow outsider power to give any chance to them to contain Russia.
India's Option in Post-U.S. Afghanistan
India's relations with Afghanistan are very special and India's economic and strategic interests are at stake. India has invested more than $2 billion and is involved in many development and reconstruction projects. Strategically also, Indian presence near Pakistan's western border (Afghanistan) would give an advantage to India against its arch rival. As India has second largest population and emerging economic power, so India needs cheap hydrocarbon and other resources to maintain its economic growth o feed its huge population. Afghanistan can help India not only by its natural resources but can also provide transit route to Central Asia. Domination of Taliban or any other anti-Indian government would not only pose security threat to India, but Indian investment and possibility to reach Central Asia would be in jeopardy.
Continued U.S. presence and involvement is in favor of India, but if U.S. is really to withdraw or reduce its presence significantly, the Northern Alliance led government would be Indian priority. But if Taliban emerged stronger in post-U.S. scenario India may establish relations with Taliban also. Indian efforts to improve relations with
Pakistan can be seen in this perspective. As U.S. is not reliable partner this is historical opportunity for India to establish itself as responsible, unbiased and powerful guarantor of peace and stability in the region. India should take some steps to resolve all disputes with Pakistan and China to extend its strength as a serious contender in the region in post-U.S. situation. This is the failure of Indian foreign policy and diplomacy that India considers a threat in different parts of the Muslim world like U.S. and Israel. Though India is not like U.S. and Israel but some time propaganda by Pakistan and hardcore Muslim groups India is depicted as anti-Muslim society, specially Babri Masjid demolition and Gujarat carnage type events represented a very ghastly image of India in the Islamic world.
Islamic movement including Taliban must realize that India is second largest population in the world and one of the fastest growing economies in the world. India is facing many internal and external security challenges and has reasonable and legitimate rights to defend its interests in South and Central Asian regions. Pakistan and political Islamic groups like Jamaat-e-Islami and militant groups like Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami need to realize their policy in given this framework.
India is the home of the second largest Muslim population in the world and their development and prosperity is directly related to India's progress and development, politically also Indian Muslims are also facing several challenges by anti-Muslim and anti-Islamic elements in India. If political and non-political (militant) Islamic groups would adopt a soft approach about India that would not only help Indian Muslims, but would also rally around the good environment in favor of Islam in India. Apart from this, neighbor's importance is undoubtedly established by the last Prophet in his various discourse and talk, he stressed on excellent relations and behavior with neighbor without discrimination of religion, caste, race and color. Prophets described the
rights of neighbor's as narrated Abdullah ibn Umar. The Prophet (peace be upon Him) said: The best friend in the sight of Allah is he who is the well-wisher of his companions, and the best neighbor is one who behaves best towards his neighbors. Transmitted by Tirmidhi. - Al-Timidhi, Number 120.
Narrated Abdul Rahman ibn AbuQurad: The Prophet (peace be upon Him) performed ablution one day and his companions began to wipe themselves with the water he had used. The Prophet (peace be upon Him) asked them what induced them to do that, and when they replied that it was love for Allah and His Messenger (peace be upon Him), he said: "If anyone is pleased to love Allah and His Messenger (peace be upon Him) or rather to have Allah and His Messenger (peace be upon Him) love him, he should speak the truth when he tells anything, fulfill his trust when he is put in a position of trust, and be a good neighbor." Bayhagi transmitted it in Shu'ab al-Imam. -Al-Timidhi, Number 1289.
Narrated AbulHurayah: The Messenger of Allah (may peace and blessings be upon Him) observed: He will not enter Paradise whose neighbor is not secure from his wrongful conduct - Sahih Muslim 15.
All these hadiths are compulsory and part of the faith to follow for each Muslim as well as are obligatory for Islamic republics, countries, states and nations also. Muslim political and militant groups are expected to formulate their policies towards their neighbors in the light of the guidance of given (above) and other hadiths. As India is the neighbor of Pakistan and Afghanistan therefore if India has reasonable economic and other interests in the region of Afghanistan, Central Asia and elsewhere, this is their religious duty to cooperate with India to achieve its legitimate (which are not harmful for them) goals. This policy can be taken as make India soft in favor of peace and prosperity of the region.
Iran's Engagement in Post-U.S. Afghanistan
If any country would be more relaxed by withdrawal from or reduction of U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, Iran may be named.
During the 1995 - 2000 when Taliban was strengthening its positions in Kabul and the rest of Afghanistan, experts were predicting Taliban's possible clash with Tehran because of their negative approach to Shi'ite Iran. Iran was also very suspicious about Taliban. But this is interesting the Taliban never posed any serious threat to Iran's security and Iran also never complained about Taliban and notably U.S. always blames Iran for supporting Taliban against NATO forces. Iran always denied any support to Taliban and constantly shows its support to Karzai government.
As U.S. presence in Afghanistan is major security threat to Taliban because Iran shares long border with Afghanistan and in any war and military clash, Afghan territory can be used against Iran.
In post different anti-Iran terrorist groups can use Afghanistan specially Afghan Bloch (Junaidullah) is always blamed about terrorist activities against Iran with the support of U.S. and NATO. New tussle on Iran's nuclear program and threat of war against Iran mounting new pressure on Iran and U.S. long time presence would make Tehran more curious.
In post-U.S. Afghanistan Northern Alliance-led government with significantly shared by Shi'ite groups would be in Iran's priority. But if Taliban or Taliban-influenced government with ready to address Iran's concern in Afghanistan and the region would be dominated in Kabul, Tehran can also conditionally support Taliban. Iran can also motivate to Shi'ite groups to support Taliban against U.S. if Taliban assures Iran not to work against Iran's interests. Iran can work with Russia and India to bring neutral Tehran if not any equation would make. Drug trafficking from Afghanistan is also a big concern for Iran and Taliban
and drug and opium policy can relief to Iran. Iran is very desperate to sale its oil and gas to Asian markets a friendly Afghan government which can avoid U.S. pressure to give transit and other facilities. No doubt only Taliban and Taliban-supported government would be favorable for Iran in this regard.
Role and Opportunities for Turkey
in Post-U.S. Afghanistan
Turkey is the only Muslim country who is the member of NATO. Being the member of NATO Turkey is the part of invaders of Afghanistan. Currently Turkey has 1,750 soldiers in Afghanistan. Turkey has lost 14 soldiers during patrolling operations. Turkey is not the part of South or Central Asia and has only traditionally links and operates foreign policy without extraordinary ambitions. But post-U.S. Afghanistan can provide a good opportunity to engage in this region with ambitious and positive attitude. It would be interesting to know that can Turkey sign a bilateral treaty with Afghanistan as individual as well would be part of remained NATO forces after 2014. If Turkey wants to play any role in this region now regional geopolitical order is in favor of Turkey. It would not only be beneficial economically, but will improve its image internationally. Iran and Pakistan are good friends and Central Asian states always have ethnic and historical links with Turkey. Though Russia and China would not like effective engagement of Turkey in this region, but Iran and Pakistan can create space for it. As Turkey also making distance from Europe and reposting itself toward Asia engagement in Afghanistan and other regional issues may be first good step to go long engagement. Current Turkey's ruling party has Islamic route and considered liberal Islamist and as U.S. is emerging anti-Islamic or Muslim face throughout Islamic world, in future relations between U.S. (West) and Turkey may be cold, therefore
it will be good to prepare to shift to China, Russia and Iran in the future and active role in this region is the way towards this. It is evident that in which manner U.S. is losing its influence in South, Central and West Asia, a new alliance may emerge after 2014 and Turkey is the only Muslim country which can be acceptable to lead because Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia have failed to unite the region. Turkey's democratic and liberal values attract a large population of the Muslim world and the West also has appreciated Turkey's role in this region which is infamous for its radical and militant approach.
Conclusion
In the post-U.S. Afghanistan security situation and stability would depend on two notions.
1. How the Taliban would react after NATO evacuation. If they are not ready to be part of peace process and not ready to accept current constitution and political system then the situation would be totally deteriorated and a new civil war may break out in Afghanistan and in the region (Pakistan border areas and Central Asia). But as Taliban is showing their interest in talks and opening their political office, in future they can accept a political solution in which they would be part of the government with other militant group like Hizb-e-Islami and Haqqani group. Things would also depend on how current ruling groups including Northern Alliance are ready to accept Taliban as legitimate political power. Current ruling groups show their distance from any solution if Taliban would claim leadership.
2. Neighbors and regional countries would play crucial role in post-U.S. Afghanistan. Pakistan is the most important player and would try to dominate in Kabul with the help of China and Iran. Pakistan can take help from Russia as new partnership is emerging. Taliban would be the trump card for Pakistan. China, Iran and Russia see U.S.
presence with great distrust and would welcome U.S. withdrawal and can support Taliban if Taliban assures them not to support militant or separatist groups. India would try to convince U.S. to continue to make presence but would also try to influence current ruling setup with the help of Northern Alliance and other anti-Taliban and anti-Pakistan group but if this equation would not be possible, India may also support Taliban participation in government if Taliban assure not to provide any support to anti-Indian elements on Afghan soil. Turkey may emerge a facilitator with the help of Pakistan and Iran. U.S. would also welcome Turkey's engagement.
"Rossiisky akademichesky zhurnal," Moscow, 2013, No 1, January - March.
S. Nikolayev
Political analyst
DILEMMA OF "VALUES AND INTERESTS" IN
U.S. POLICY IN CENTRAL ASIA
Today, the geopolitical map of the Central Asian region is distinguished by enviable variety. It is in the focus of attention of many influential world players.
Russia holds traditionally firm positions in Central Asia. China is strengthening its positions in it. The European Union carries on its own strategy of "new partnership" in the region. The mechanism of "Dialogue Japan - Central Asia" is also working. Apart from that, Turkey, Iran, India, Pakistan, the Republic of Korea, and a number of Arab countries are actively developing cooperation with Central Asian countries.
Such powerful country as the United States is not standing on the side of this process. It is striving to expand political and economic ties
