CC BY
30t < t0
H H часть периода хозяйство убирает свеклу, не достигшую зрелости, без всякой компенсации, следовательно это не выгодно.
Результаты варировании прогнозируемых показателей внутри доверительных
интервалов показывают, что их значений Z и tф ведут себя устойчиво, отклонение Z
не превышает 20%, а -10%. Требуемые для стимулирования в предложенном подходе средства, не превосходят эффекта, получаемого за счет соблюдения оптимального графика уборки.
При начале массовой уборки соответственно оптимальному плану до 15 сентября надбавка по принятой методике выплачивается хозяйству в период массовой уборки, что требует больших затрат и в то же время неэффективно, так как в этот период в стимулировании нет нужды. Однако при действующей системе средства на стимулирование не превышают эффекта от соблюдения оптимального графика.
Учитывая, что при расчете момента окончания стимулирования и надбавки используется прогнозная информация, нужно предусмотреть возможность отклонения фактических параметров от прогнозируемых. На этот случай страховкой может
служить соблюдение в (3) неравенства заданием соответствующего значения t° > ,
10
что равносильно большей доходности варианта уборки с началом в момент tH по
сравнению с вариантом начала в момент tH . При предложенном подходе можно добиться, чтобы средства на стимулирование по величине совладали с суммой, выплачиваемой данному хозяйству при действующей системе стимулирования.
Литература
1. Степаненко И. Д. Системно-целевой подход в планировании свеклосахарного производства. Фрунзе; Илим, 1977
2. Чернов Ю. П. и др. Проблемы оптимального функционирования сезонных производств. Фрунзе: Илим, 1979.
3. Гамецкий А. Ф. и др. Применение принципа максимума к задаче определения оптимального графика уборки и переработки сахарной свеклы. В кн: Прикладная математика и програмирование. Вып. 8. Кишинев; Штиница, 1972.
Izmambetova Mariyam Myrzabayevna
1 year master student, Almaty Management University
050060, Kazakhstan, Almaty Mariusha_93@mail.ru Scientific Adviser: Karshalova A.D.
FINANCIAL RISKS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS
Abstract
The presented work is devoted to the theme "Financial risks of investment projects". The purpose of this article is to considerthe types of financial risks of investment projects and to analyze the main methods of assessment of risks in modern conditions.The importance and relevance of article is caused by anincrease in financial risks at implementation of investment activityin modern Kazakhstan market.
Key words: financial risks, investment projects, risk assessment.
In modern economic situation, where level of supply and demand is instable, rapid changes in exchange rates, uncontrolled inflation and other negative factors, investment projects cannot be realized with the guaranteed success. Investment activity is always linked with a certain set of risks.The identification and managementof risks are becoming more important.By analyzing investment risks, the company tries to take into account the
probability of negative effects or consequences and the size of lost profits. In business projects they can be divided into two big groups: systematic and unsystematic[1, p 329].
Systematic risks are those that cannot be influenced and managed, but are always present and considered in business plan. They include:
• Political risks (political instability, social and economic changes);
• Natural and environmental risks (natural disasters);
• Legal risks (instability and imperfection of the legislation);
• Economic risks (sharp rate fluctuations of currencies, government measures on taxation, restriction or expansion of export-import, the currency legislation, etc.).
Unsystematic risks are those that can be eliminated partially or completely. The chief financial director needs to pay special attention since it is possible to manage them, and thus minimize the impact on the project. These risks include:
• Production risks (risk of non-performance of the planned works,failure to reach the planned production volumes, etc.);
• Financial risks (risk of non-receipt of the expected income from implementation of the project, risk of insufficient liquidity);
• Market risks (changes in market conditions, the loss of market position, changes in prices).
There are two main parts of financial risks. The first one is the risk of non-receipt of expected income from the project.
During implementation of the project the risk of non-receipt of the expected income is shown in the form of negative NPV or excessively long payback period. This group of threats includes everything that is connected with the forecast of cash flows on an operational phase [2, p. 4].
Market risk is a risk of shortfall of the revenue as a result of not achievement of planned sales volume or reduction of price of the realization which is rather planned. As the profit of the project (and most the profit is defined by revenue) defines its efficiency, marketing risks are key design risks. For decrease in this risk it is necessary to influence careful studying of the market, identification of the key factors of the project, the forecast of their emergence or strengthening, ways of neutralization of negative influence of these factors. Possible factors: market condition change, competition strengthening, loss of position in the market, decrease or lack of demand for production of the project, decrease in market capacity, reduction of prices of production, etc. The assessment of marketing risks is especially important for projects that connected with creation of new products or expansion of the existing production. For projects of reduction of expenses on the operating production these risks are studied, as a rule, to a lesser extent [3, p 2].
Risk of excess of production cost occurs when costs of production exceed planned, thereby reducing profit of the project. The analysis of expenses constructed on comparison with expenses of the similar enterprises, the analysis of the chosen suppliers of raw materials (reliability, availability, possibility of alternative), the forecast of cost of raw materials is necessary.
Technological risksoccur when short-reception arrived as a result of not achievement of planned output or growth of cost of production connected with the chosen production technology.Risk factors include:
• Features of the applied technology - features connected with technological process and its applicability in the set of conditions, compliance of raw materials to the chosen equipment, etc.
• Dishonesty of the supplier of the equipment - failures to meet time constraints of supplies of equipment, delivery of the low-quality equipment, etc.
• Lack of available service on the acquired equipment - remoteness of customer services can lead to considerable idle times of production.
Administrative risks - the risk of receiving less profit as a result of the impact of administrative factors. Interest in the project from administrative power and its support significantly reduces these risks.
The second part of financial risks is lack of liquidity. Widespread situation when the amount of money in the expected budget for the end of the period is negative. Defining risks can arise both on investment, and on an operational phase for several reasons.
The risk of excess of the budget of the project, perhaps, most often occur when the amount ofrequired investments weremore than planned investments. Its influence can be reduced significantly at a planning stage by comparing to similar projects or productions, byanalyzing a technological chain, by considering the necessary size of working capital. Also additional financing of contingencies have to be provided. Even at the careful planning of investments the excessof a budget framework by 10 percent is considered as common situation. If during the project the loan is attracted, it is desirable to agree with bankers about increase of a limit.
Risk of non-compliance with the schedule of financing means arrival of money with a delay or with insufficient volume, or is allocated according to excessively strict schedule which doesn't allow deviations. A task of the experts making the business plan is beforehand to reserve money on accounts of the company (if the project is financed by own means) or provide in the contract the opportunity of variation in the timing of funds under the credit line (if it is about loan financing).
The risk of shortage of means on the stage of reaching to project capacity can detain works on an operational phase and slowdownin output productive capacity. The problem arises because of financing of working capitalwasn't fully analyzedon the planning stage.
The risk of shortage of means on an operational phase arises because of influence of internal and external factors which lead to falling of profit and problems with repayment of obligations to creditors or suppliers. If the project is realized by means of borrowed funds, it is worth using debt covering coefficient at creation of the schedule of repayment of the credit. Its essence is that possible fluctuation of a cash flow considers the expected market and economic situation.
There several methods of risk assessment of investment projects. The main of them are listed in Table-1.
Table-1. Methods of risk assessment of investment projects
Method Features of the method
Method of analogies The analysis of all available data on similar and not less risky projects.Studying the consequencesof impact ofnegative factors on them in order to determine the potential risk in the implementation of the new project.
Method of expert evaluation This method is based on the experience of expertsin the management of investment projects.They evaluate the project and its components according to the degree of influence of risks.
The method of adjusting the discount rate (risk premium) The essence of this method lies in the adjustment of the discount rate according to estimated risk level of the project.
Sensitivity analysis of performance criteria. The purpose of the method is to compare the impact of various factors on the investment project's key performance indicator, for example, the internal rate of return.
Method of scenarios With the help of this method the impact of simultaneous changes in all the main variables of the project, characterizing its cash flows for the criteria of project efficiency,are determined.
"Decision tree" method The method is based on the formation of a graph, whose
nodes are individual decisions and branches are the possible alternatives of their implementation [4, p 158].
Simulation method (Monte Carlo) The essence of this method is in the construction of the mathematical model for the project with uncertain parameter values. Distribution of return of the project can be obtained by knowing the probability distribution of the parameters of the project, as well as the relationship between changes in parameters of the project (correlation) [5, p 394].
After identifying and analyzing the risks the activities to reduction of risks will begin. In general, methods of risk management include the following: diversification, risk aversion, compensation and localization[6, p 13].
An effective way to reduce risk of investment project is risk diversification (distribution). The distribution of risk takes place when developing a financial plan and contractual agreements, so it can be arranged among contractors, and among shareholders.
The most important among methods of risk aversion is insurance of risk. It is a protection of property interests of the company upon the occurrence of adverse events by cash generated from insurance payments.
The method, similar to insurance method, is compensation of risk, which provides the establishment of certain reserves: financial, material and informational.
Localization of risk is the selection of certain activities that may lead to the localization of risk.
Risk management is a necessary stage of evaluation of the investment project. Methods of risk management are usually defined in the investment policy of the enterprise, since low-quality risk analysis may lead to significant loss of profitability of the project, and even make it unprofitable.
References:
1. Lawrence J. Gitman, Chad J. Zutter, 2012. Principles of managerial finance. 13th ed. Boston: Prentice Hall.
2. http://www.oeconomica.uab.ro/upload/lucrari/1120091/09.pdf
3. http://www.freit.org/WorkingPapers/Papers/ForeignInvestment/FREIT685.pdf
4. http://treeplan.com/chapters/introduction-to-decision-trees.pdf
5. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212567114004638
6. Filippova I.A., Khairullin I.G., Usanova D.S., 2014. Risk-Oriented Technique of Real Investments Management: Concepts, Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, Vol. 5 No 24. Rome: MCSER Publishing.
Жежеря Олена Сергнвна,
студентка 4-го курсу НУДПСУ, мЛртнь, Украгна e-mail: zh-lena@Mkr.net Суханова Алла Валернвна
Науковий кергвник старший викладач НУДПСУ
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