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33Scrum обладает достаточно привлекательными достоинствами. Scrum ориентирован на клиента, адаптивен. Scrum дает клиенту возможность делать изменения в требованиях в любой момент времени (но не гарантирует того, что эти изменения будут выполнены). Возможность изменения требований привлекательна для многих заказчиков ПО.
Scrum достаточно прост в изучении, позволяет экономить время, за счет исключения не критичных активностей. Scrum позволяет получить потенциально рабочий продукт в конце каждого Sprint^.
Scrum делает упор на самоорганизующуюся, многофункциональную команду, способную решить необходимые задачи с минимальной координацией. Это особенно привлекательно для малых компаний и стартапов, так как избавляет от необходимости от найма или обучения специализированного персонала руководителей.
Конечно, у Scrum есть и важные недостатки. Ввиду простоты и минималистичности, Scrum задает небольшое количество довольно жестких правил. Однако это вступает в конфликт с идеей клиентоориентированности в принципе, т. к. клиенту не важны внутренние правила команды разработки, особено если они ограничивают клиента. К примеру, в случае необходимости, по решению клиента Sprint backlog может быть изменен, не смотря на явное противоречие с правилами Scrum.[3] Слабой особенностью Scrum является упор на самоорганизующуюся, многофункциональную команду. При кажущемся снижении затрат на координацию команды, это приводит к повышению затрат на отбор персонала, его мотивацию, обучение. При определенных условиях рынка труда, формирование полноценной, эффективной Scrum команды может быть невозможным.
Список использованных источников:
1. The Scrum Guide. The definitive Guide to Scrum: The Rules of the Game. (Ken Schwaber, Jeff Sutherland)
2. Психология управления, учебное пособие. (А. А. Трусь)
3. How a Traditional Project Manager Transforms to Scrum: PMBOK vs. Scrum. (Jeff Sutherland, Nafis Ahmad)
Pak Valeriy Evgenievich
1st year master student of Almaty Management University, Almaty, Kazakhstan E-mail: Pak_valera-93@mail.ru
ANALYSIS OF RISKS IN INVESTMENT PROJECTS
Abstract
In the article there will be considered the concept and essence of risks arising in the investment project on the example of the model of construction of the residential real estate. There will be considered the classification of risk based on the life cycle of project, their impact on the project effectiveness and profitability and quantitative and qualitative methods of their analysis.
Keywords:
Risks; loss; effectiveness; profitability; qualitative and quantitative methods; net present
value.
Regardless of the nature of the investment, a necessary condition for the long-term development of the company is the return that exceeds the cost of the resources expended in accordance with their best alternative use. Effective and timely investment in the project leads to achievement of a new level of profitability, increase the value and competitiveness of the company. Conversely, investments in the project, the risks of which were underestimated in the future may adversely affect the financial results and the company's stability. 60
Evaluating the effectiveness of the project takes place, usually in the face of uncertainty: the cash flows relate to future periods and therefore have forecasted, non-deterministic character. Given the instability of the environment increases the uncertainty of the project and the risks in the construction sector increased, while their normal level significantly higher than the risk of other sectors of the economy.
Risk, which can be defined as the probability of occurrence of adverse events in relation to investments can be defined as a deviation from the expected value of income, which is generally accepted to be the average. Based on this definition and measurement of risk: the greater the deviation from the expected income, the greater the risk. The overall risk associated with direct investments, including risk of non - recoupment of project; the risk of low-return of projects; the risk of exceeding the price of the advanced capital over the yield of the project; risk of increasing the payback period of the project. So in order to decrease the negative impact of risks, it is necessary to manage them.
Under the management of risks are defined as:
1. Measurement, including that portion of risk which can not be reduced by using existing techniques.
2. Minimizing the part of the risk, which can be reduced by using existing methods.
It should be noted that in the economic literature often uses the term "elimination of risk", which should be understood its maximum decrease. Risk - the probable value, and completely eliminate it impossible.
The nature of investment is that risk and return on investment in any assets are directly related:
- the higher the yield, the higher the risk;
- the lower the yield, the lower the risk.
Therefore it is impossible to find such an asset investments that are both highly profitable and low-risk. However, this does not mean that we should not seek to increase returns and reduce risk. On the contrary, in the process of investment management necessary to manage yield with the aim of maximizing and risk to its maximum decrease [8, p. 122].
While the concept of "uncertainty" has a broader meaning and can produce not only negative but also positive or zero effects.
The project risks are defined as the probability of unplanned numerically measurable economic benefits or result of additional losses in the framework of the realizable project and related activities. This is the difference between the concepts of "uncertainty" and "risk": the risk of an this or that event can be objectively or subjectively evaluated on the basis of the distribution of the results of previous experience.
At the same time, from the definition of the concept itself there is the possibility of underestimating the risks that an unfavorable outcome and the occurrence of risk events leads to a lack of funds for the continuation of financing. Assessing the risks of investing in real estate, Steven Hargitay concluded that the risk bears in itself two components - a systematic and unsystematic (see. Table 1). The probability or consequences of systematic - external - is almost impossible to evaluate the risk, while unsystematic risk can be analyzed, as well as to control its causes and consequences [1, p. 85].
Table 1- Risk classification of construction companies
Systematic Unsystematic
Market risk (change of market conditions) Business risk (connected with business processes)
Cyclical risk (connected with business cycle) Financial (connected with financial independence and sustainability)
Inflation risk (Change of purchasing power) Liquidity risk (Real estate at any step of construction has low liquidity)
Percentage (change of crediting conditions) Another specific risks - construction, executive and other.
After examining the common signs of classification of project risks, it seems reasonable to separate them according to the stage of the project: the risks of pre-investment, investment (construction) and operational (operational) phase [2, p. 53] [6, p.97]. The risks of each of the periods are divided into external - depending on the external environment and internal -defined by the activities of the company-initiator.
In order to determine what kinds of risks may arise at each stage, we analyze the life cycle of the project of construction of residential real estate [4, p. 123].
Phase I. Pre-investment phase:
- data collection and market research, industry of possible risks;
- development of the concept and content of the project, estimate and project documentation; obtaining the necessary permits for the project in the supervisory and other authorities;
- structural, engineering planning and design.
The second group includes the risks of cost overruns, delays the period of work, as well as the risks of design and plot selection.
Stage II. Investment phase:
- solution of the questions about the financing of the project and materialtechnical supply, organization of building processes;
- construction and connection object to communication, organization of interior and exterior decoration, landscaping;
- organization and planning of sales of apartments;
- monitoring the progress of work, testing and research.
The external risks arising at this stage, include interest rate, credit, currency, inflation, institutional (related to changes in the legal, political sphere, et al.). Also characteristic of this stage are the following internal risks: cost overruns, delays in completion and low quality of work, technical and production (for example, the occurrence of an emergency situation), environmental, organizational.
Phase III. Operational phase:
- Conformity assessment of a finished object to the project, tachnical conditions and regulations, and obtaining of permits and documentations for entering the facility to operating.
- Delivery of a facility into operation.
- Elimination of errors in the design or construction, discovered after entering to operating.
At this stage it is important to take into account the procedural and technical risks of exploitation that are associated with non-compliance of object to project documentation, technical conditions or a violation of its functioning. Identifying possible risks of a specific project, it is necessary to analyze them on the basis of which the decision will be taken on whether to participate in the project. In general, distinguish two approaches to the study of project risk - qualitative and quantitative. To the qualitative methods of risk assessment of the
project relate a set of methods of expert assessments, analysis of the appropriateness of the costs, method of analogies.
As mentioned above, most fully and objectively assess the magnitude and probability of potential losses can be using the methods of quantitative analysis, which involves assigning quantitative parameter to quality [7, p. 69]. During the quantitative risk assessment numerically defined the individual types of risk, the probability of occurrence of certain events, as well as calculated indicators quantitatively characterize the degree of risk. Quantitative assessment reflects the value of the perceived risk of the project, its real value becomes known as a result of the fact of occurrence of risk events [9, p. 61]. The most common tools of quantity evaluation of project risks distinguished:
- method of adjusting the discount rate (the interest rate adjusted for risk);
- sensitivity analysis of performance criteria;
- scenario method;
- decision trees;
- simulation modeling (Monte Carlo).
Next, There will be considered in more detail the basic principles of implementation of some of the most common quantitative methods.
I. The method of adjusting the discount rate
The uncertainty of the project conditions when determining the expected effect (NPV) in calculations may be included in the discount rate as the risk-adjusted.
The technique involves the following steps:
- set the initial cost of capital intended for investment;
- determine (for example, by an expert) the risk premium associated with the project
;
- calculate NPV with discount rate r:
- comparing of projects NPV and draws conclusions (project with greater NPV is preferred).
Theoretically, the method is more justified, since the introduction of risk adjustment automatically leads to the adoption of a reasonable assumption that certainly increases the risk over time.
II. Sensitivity analysis and critical values
Sensitivity analysis of the investment project is carried out in order to take into account and predict the impact of changes in the various original parameters: investment costs, cash flow, level of reinvestment (the funds received in the form of investment income and redirected to invest the same objects), and so on. The objectives of this analysis is to assess the impact of changes in each (or several at once) of the input parameters to provide the worst developments in the project. As the resulting indicators are usually considered performance indicators (NPV, IRR, PI, PP) or annual performance of the project (the amount of net accumulated profit) [10, p.71].
III. The event tree method (decisions)
This analysis tool involves the construction of the network schedule, each branch of which is an alternative variants of development or state of the environment [9,10]. So, following along the branches of the tree can be traced all the options of possible events, as well as choose the least risky and best. In general, it can be represented in the algorithm as the following steps:
1. For each point in time is determined by the problem (top) and possible ways of development of events (outgoing arc).
2. Each arc is defined by the expert method the probability of monetary valuation (loss).
3. Taking into account the values of all vertices it is calculating the most probable value of NPV or other key indicators of the project.
4. The analysis of probability distributions
IV. Simulation modeling
Simulation method of Monte Carlo creates additional opportunities in the risk assessment due to the fact that makes it possible to create random scenarios. Application of risk analysis uses a wealth of information, be it in the form of objective data and expert evaluations, a quantitative description of the uncertainty that exists with regard to the basic variables of the project and for reasonable estimates of possible impact of uncertainty on the efficiency of the investment project. The result of the risk analysis is not expressed in any single value NPV, and in the form of the probability distribution of all possible values of this parameter. Consequently, potential investors, using the Monte Carlo method will be provided a full set of data on the risk of the project. On this basis, they can make an informed decision regarding the granting of funds [3, p. 97] [5, p. 112].
So, there were highlighted the theoretical aspects of the concept of "risk" of investment project, its basic elements and classification. Summarizing the literature on this issue, the project risks in the construction industry have been identified as numerically measurable probability of additional unplanned losses (economic benefits) in the framework of the project and related activities. The risks of each of the periods are divided into external - non -diversifiable dependent on the external environment and internal - defined by the activities of the company-initiator.
Thus, the above analysis of sources of project risks showed that the occurrence of unplanned additional losses in construction may occur at each stage of the project - the pre-investment, investment, or the operational phase. Due to the instability of the environment to avoid the risk is almost impossible, but it is possible to estimate the probable loss of detail qualitatively or quantitatively. In the analysis of the investment project must be an integrated approach, in order to more fully assess the magnitude and probability of potential losses, as well as to make effective decisions on risk management. Next was made a review of existing methods for risk assessment of the project: qualitative and quantitative. The analysis revealed that the qualitative approach can be used more for the preliminary assessment of projects, identify potential risks and describe the sources of their occurrence. These methods may be useful to describe the possible risks, and not for risk assessment, commensurate with the scale of the investment project. It was found that more complete assessment the magnitude and probability of potential losses, as well as to make effective decisions on risk management can only be provided using an integrated approach of qualitative and quantitative methods of risk analysis.
References
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2. Huffman F. E. Corporate real estate risk management and assessment// Journal of Corporate Real Estate. —2009. № 5(1) — 153 p.
3. Khumpaisal S., Chen Z. Risk assessment in real estate development: an application of analytic network process//Journal of Architectural/Planning Research and Studies. — 2010. №7(1) — 125 p.
4. Loizou P., French N. Risk and uncertainty in development: A critical evaluation of using the Monte Carlo simulation method as a decision tool in real estate development projects/Journal of Property Investment & Finance. — 2012. №30 — 210 p.
5. Wiegelmann T. W. Risk Management in the Real Estate Development Industry. — Robina: Institute of Sustainable Development & Architecture, 2012. — 302 p.
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10. Шапкин А. С., Шапкин В. А. Теория риска и моделирование рисковых ситуаций: Учебник. — М.: Издательско-торговая корпорация «Дашков и К», 2010. — 880 с.
Шашина О.Ю.
Соискатель МГТУ им. Н.Э. Баумана
АНАЛИЗ ПОНЯТИЯ «ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТЬ» ПРОИЗВОДСТВА, КАК ОДНО ИЗ НАИБОЛЕЕ ВАЖНЫХ НАПРАВЛЕНИЙ В РАЗВИТИИ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЯ.
Понятие «эффективность» производства является крайне важным для хозяйствующих субъектов на различных уровнях экономики, таких как, регион, отрасль, предприятие для корректировки и планирования, так и для внешних относительно объекта инвестиционных и регулирующих институтов с целью определения местоположения предприятия в экономической системе страны.
Следует отметить, что через категорию «экономическая эффективность» находят отражение такие существенные характеристики хозяйственной деятельности как целостность, многомерность, динамичность.
Быстрое развитие внешней среды требует трансформации понятия экономической эффективности относительно как стабильного, так и динамичного состояния предприятия с учетом взаимосвязи социальной и экономических структур.
Прежде, чем проводить анализ возможных методов увеличения экономической эффективности предприятия необходимо проанализировать базу знаний по данной проблеме, которая включает в себя большое количество трудов ученых: Абалкина Л.И. Аганбегяна А.Г. Абрютина М.С. Ананькина СВ. Артеменко В.Г. Баканова М.И. Балабанова И.Т. Барнгольц СБ. Беллендир М.В. Белобородова В.А. Бухалкова М.И. Вакуленко Т.Г. Горбунова ЛИ. Грачева А.В. Данилочкина Н.Г. Донцова Л.В. Герасименко Г.П. Герасимова В.Г. Ефимова О.В. Карлин Т.Р. Клейнер Г.Б. Ковалева А.И. Ковалева Л.П. Ковалева В.В.
Например, Д. В. Паринов в своём исследовании отмечает, что «на современном этапе развития отечественной системы рыночных отношений эффективность функционирования производственной системы не определяется только оптимальностью процесса использования внутренних ресурсов системы. На первый план выходят проблемы взаимоотношений производственных систем с их внешней средой» [12]. То есть им было сделано предположение о целесообразности выделения помимо понятия, характеризующего качество внутрипроизводственных процессов -внутренней эффективности, понятия внешней эффективности. В итоге, Д. В. Паринов определяет эффективность как «уровень качества функционирования производственной системы, измеряемый отношением результатов использования внутреннего потенциала и возможностей взаимоотношений с внешней средой к затратам на их достижение в процессе удовлетворения потребительских предпочтений» [12].
Некоторыми учёными предлагается при оценке эффективности учитывать такие направления деятельности предприятия, как инвестиционная, финансовая и текущая. Так, например, О. В. Дмитриева даёт следующее определение: «эффективность -экономическая категория, соизмеряющая экономические результаты деятельности экономического субъекта с ресурсами и затратами, их обусловившими, в разрезе важнейших направлений его деятельности» [5].
Некоторые учёные для изложения своего подхода к понятию эффективности вводят несколько переменных. А. Н. Алёшин, в своём исследовании высказывает
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