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DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN MODERN UZBEKISTAN: CHARACTERISTIC FEATURES OF GOVERNMENT DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY
The presented article examines the features of the current demographic situation and government demographic policy in the Republic of Uzbekistan. The most important priority directions of government social programs, as well as modern trends, factors and criteria for the development of demographic processes dynamics in the Republic of Uzbekistan are analyzed. The authors revealed presumptive upcoming dynamics of the birth rate and the potential importance of the family in the system of value orientations of the young people of Uzbekistan on the basis of a sociological survey among the youth of Uzbekistan. They present forecast estimates of the prospects for increasing the birth rate in the next decade.
Keywords
demography, birth rate, population, population growth, urbanization, family, family values
AUTHORS
Olga I. Stepanova,
Candidate of Philosophy, Associate Professor, Philosophy and Logic Chair, National University of Uzbekistan named after M. Ulugbeck, 4, st. University, Tashkent, 100174, Uzbekistan
Aida M. Tyukmaeva,
Student, Faculty of Social Sciences, Area of Training "Philosophy. Area of Application",, National University of Uzbekistan named after M. Ulugbeck, 4, st. University, Tashkent, 100174, Uzbekistan
1. Introduction
1.1. Relevance of the problem:
In recent years, scientists, politicians and philosophers in the Republic of Uzbekistan have been particularly interested in one of the most acute problems of our time - the threat of overpopulation, which affects all spheres of social and political life. The rapid
growth of the population in Uzbekistan, which has doubled over the past 29 years, creates the problem of an uneven ratio of consumed resources and population. The government pays great attention to population problems, bringing them to the level of regulatory and legal processing as a part of the implementation of social policy, which is one of the priority directions for the Action Strategy development.
1.2. Development and implementation of targeted government programs of the socio-political spectrum.
On September 19, 2017, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Miromanovich Mirziyoyev, emphasized in his report at the 72nd UN General Assembly that decisive reforms are necessary for sustainable and rapid development, including ensuring a strong social policy. "Uzbekistan proposes to develop the UN International Convention on the Young People Rights - a unified international legal act aimed at the formation and implementation of youth policy in the context of globalization and the rapid development of information and communication technologies. In our opinion, the signatory states must make firm commitments to raise this area to the level of one of the main, vital priorities of their social policy". Prior to the inauguration of Shavkat Miromanovich Mirziyoyev, the issues of the demographic spectrum concerning the problems of birth control and regulation did not turn into the object of political discussion in the Republic of Uzbekistan and, to a certain extent, were avoided. Currently, the priority attention is paid to the problems of demography.
1.3. Statistics on the factors affecting the overall dynamics of population growth.
The processes of urbanization, the involvement of women in social production, the
increased requirements for a decent standard of living, the desire to provide children with education and material security have gradually led to a certain decrease in the birth rate in Uzbekistan. The sociological study carried out by the authors of this article confirms the general global trend of declining birth rates, highlighted in the scientific demographic literature. However, insufficient attention to the issues of increasing the population in densely populated areas results in worsening of the situation with the production, transport, engineering and communication infrastructure, which cannot meet the needs of the increasing flow of citizens. At the same time, the regulation of the state of the environment and the conditions of sanitary and epidemiological well-being of the population becomes difficult due to the increase of anthropogenic impact on the condition of the surrounding ecosystem. The overpopulation process, characterized by an increase in population density, directly affects the level of social tension, provoking the manifestation of various forms of deviant behavior among citizens. The increase in the crime rate in densely populated areas is due, among other things, to the uneven distribution of the population in the administrative-territorial zone of Uzbekistan. The growing concentration of motor vehicles contributes to an increase in the rate of oxygen removal from the atmosphere, an increase in emissions containing carbon and nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons and sulfur-containing compounds, which increase the risk of cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, which in turn reduces the average life expectancy indicator in Uzbekistan. The ongoing process of urbanization in Uzbekistan, due to the need to provide employment for citizens, is accompanied by a number of acute problems, which include an increase in the gap between economically developed and backward regions. The number of resident population according to the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics as of April 1 is presented below:
2018 r. 2019 r. Growth rates for the previous year in%.
Republic of Uzbekistan 32 763,5 33 375,8 101,9
Republic of Karakalpakstan 1 847,6 1 875,4 101,5
Regions
Andijan 3 020,7 3 007,2 101,9
Bukhara 1 869,9 1 900,0 101,6
Jizzakh 1 330,0 1 358,2 102,1
Kashkadarya 3 159,8 3 225,8 102,1
Navoi 966,4 982,6 101,7
Namangan 2 708,7 2 763,1 102,0
Samarkand 3 733,7 3 813,6 102,1
Surkhandarya 2 524,6 2 580,6 102,2
Syrdarya 818, 5 833,0 101,8
Tashkent 2 867,1 2 907,0 101,4
Fergana 3 631,2 3 695,5 101,8
Khorezm 1 810,0 1 841,0 101,7
City of Tashkent 2 475,3 2 522,8 101,9
A detailed study of population density allows us to state the acute uneven dynamics of the distribution of people over the area of administrative-territorial units. Thus, the population density in the Republic of Uzbekistan is 74.1 people per 1 sq. km. The highest population density is in Andijan (713.2 people per 1 sq. km), Fergana (544.8 people) and Namangan (370.0 people) regions, and the lowest - in Navoi region (8, 8 people) and the Republic of Karakalpakstan (11.2 people). A number of historical factors, one of which was the migration process due to the 1966 earthquake, which caused significant changes in the flow of people from other regions, explains this situation.
Insufficient attention to the issues of increasing the population in densely populated areas contributes to worsening of the situation with the production, transport, engineering and communication infrastructure, which cannot meet the needs of the increasing flow of citizens. At the same time, the regulation of the state of the environment and the conditions of sanitary and epidemiological well-being of the population becomes difficult due to the increase of anthropogenic impact on the condition of the surrounding ecosystem. The overpopulation process, characterized by an increase in population density, directly affects the level of social tension, provoking the manifestation of various forms of deviant behavior among citizens. The increase in the crime rate in densely populated areas is due, among other things, to the uneven distribution of the population in the administrative-territorial zone of Uzbekistan. Traffic jams, a problem of vehicle concentration on roads are the result of rapid demographic growth, which introduces an imbalance between the population and the territory it exploits.
The impossibility of ensuring a high-quality standard of living as a result of the growing population also rests on such an important demographic factor as the growing number of divorce proceedings in the Republic. According to the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the number of marriages and divorces in 2017 amounted to 306.2 thousand and 31.9 thousand, respectively; in 2018 - 311.3 thousand and 32.3 thousand people.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Methods of conducting the experiment.
The comparative method, the questionnaire method, the statistical method, the grouping method, the method of demographic forecasting were used as the methodological basis of the scientific research. As part of the study of the population increasing prospects, the authors conducted a sociological survey, which involved 500 people aged 16 to 30 years of different sex, nationality, religious affiliation, educational level and social status. The respondents included both urban and rural contingent, both residents of the capital and regional centers, and all regions. This allowed the authors to investigate in the most detail
the difference in results with respect to the territorial place of residence. The purpose of the conducted sociological study was to identify the upcoming dynamics of the birth rate and analyze the characteristics of the reproductive behavior of young people in the Republic of Uzbekistan. The main attention of the respondents was focused on providing information on the desired and planned number of children, as well as on the choice of the place and role of the family in the personal system of values among the list of other alternative options in the hierarchical sequence proposed by the authors. Processing and systemic analysis of the obtained results of the sociological survey made it possible to identify indicators of the upcoming demographic situation and forecast the prospects for an increase in the birth rate in the Republic of Uzbekistan for the next 10 years.
The calculation of the integral demographic indicator average value for the number of children is 2.954 children per parent. The results obtained coincide with the results of the Center for the Study of Public Opinion "Izhtimoiy Fikr", which published information that, for the period of 2017, 24.3% of citizens would like to have two children, 32.2% - three and 31% - four. A diagram is presented below indicating the percentage of the family role position in the value system of young people in Uzbekistan. Thus, the observed extensive demographic progression turns into an acute problem of life support, requiring the search for a territorial and resource-intensive space that can meet the annually increasing needs of population.
2.2. The structure of the survey and the conditions for conducting a sociological survey.
The structure of the sociological survey used by the authors for obtaining statistical results includes a questionnaire and a list of open and closed questions, formulated as follows: "Choose from the given list of values 5 those that, in your opinion, are the most significant" including: health, love, money, position, social status, fame, family, respect, education and professional recognition. Thus, the examination of the results obtained was done by analyzing the data indicated in the hierarchical sequence from the above list of options. The second question, formulated as: "How many children are in your family?" showed the dependence of the number of planned children from the number of brothers and sisters people have. Thus, the authors were able to analyze the level of adoption parental behavior patterns in the family planning system by children. The third question, reflecting the characteristics of personal preferences and aspirations in relation to the desire to acquire offspring, is formulated as follows: "How many children do you want?" And the fourth and final question, referring to pragmatic and economic considerations, requires an answer in relation to the indi^dual policy of planning the number of offspring. This question was formulated as follows: "How many children are you going to have?" In the course of the sociological survey, most of the respondents mistakenly assumed the semantic identity of the third and fourth questions, however, the inclusion of these questions allows us to trace the ratio of personal desires and potential economic opportunities of citizens. As a result of processing the data obtained during the sociological survey, the authors compiled the following diagram.
The diagram of the family role in the system of values
7%
14%
42%
0 1 2 3 4 5
FIGURE 1
2.3. Estimation of the average quantitative coefficient of the planned offspring.
After analysis of the sociological survey data on the hierarchical ordering of the list of values given by the authors, the following results were obtained: only 7% of the respondents placed the family in first place, 42% placed the value of the family in second place, 14% - in third, 30% - in fourth, 4% - in the fifth and 3% did not include "family" in the list of their own value system. Thus, as we can see from the above diagram, the dynamics of the general axiological orientations of the young people of Uzbekistan is most characteristic, which makes it possible to state the implementation of a branched direction of the value choice of spheres that are not directly related to matrimonial relations. Within the framework of this study, such a situation, characterized by a shift in the spectrum of vital values, is a positive criterion for the policy of demographic growth control. The results of the conducted research correlate with the sociological works of Russian specialists (A.A. Larina, who used the additional scale of terminal values by I. Rokich and revealed a similar phenomenon associated with the reassessment of the traditional system of values among Russian youth). This allows us to record a general worldview shift taking place within the framework of the transition from the system of traditionally materialistic values to post-materialistic ones, based on the desire to assert one's personality through the personal achievements.
B0B1B2B3B4B5 6 B 7 8+
FIGURE 2
3. Results
3.1. Calculation of the sociological survey data.
In the process of studying the results of the sociological survey, the authors could find out that the prevailing part of the respondents, namely 39.8%, were planning to have three children, 28.4% - two, 21% - four, 3.8% - five, 3.8% - one child , 0.6% - six, 0.6% - seven, 0.4% - eight and more and 1.6% - did not plan to have children at all. Thus, the results of the conducted research, obtained on the basis of a sociological survey of young people in Uzbekistan, make it possible to forecast with a certain accuracy a slight decrease in the birth rate in the next decade. The observed extensive demographic progression turns into an acute problem of life support, requiring the search for a territorial and resource-intensive space that can meet the annually increasing needs of the population of Uzbekistan.
3.2. Establishing the demographic optimum in the Republic of Uzbekistan.
The current population problem in Uzbekistan, which has arisen as a result of the absence of factors restraining reproduction, requires the government to carry out a demographic policy to exercise birth control. However, to implement the most rational and economically feasible impact on the dynamics of demographic processes, it is necessary to
calculate the optimal number of population. The calculation of the optimal number directly depends on the indicators of the general administrative-territorial significance, the quantitative coefficient of the source and reserve of resources and the level of infrastructure. According to the authors, the prevailing number of all existing problems in the Republic of Uzbekistan rest on the problem of overpopulation, accompanied by an increase in the need to use unsuitable living conditions and an increase in economic inequality between citizens. Establishing the maximum acceptable demographic coefficient and bringing this issue into the orbit of political discussions will make it possible to restore global losses in the shortest imaginable time and provide favorable conditions for a comfortable and happy life for every person. The regulatory and legal nature of the birth control implementation, expressed in the introduction of restrictive thresholds into the legislative system, may not meet with the approval of the prevailing number of citizens, but the growing difficulties associated with problems of survival today overwhelm moral and ethical issues.
3.3. Features of demographic policy and educational activities among the young people of Uzbekistan.
Increasing requirements and criteria for the quality of life (food, housing, comfortable living, health care costs, healthy lifestyles, transport, education, travel, entertainment) also give the youth of Uzbekistan the problem of a rational approach to family budget planning, including that at the birth of the first and subsequent children. The government also takes systemic measures for prolonged birth control: for example, antenatal clinics and gynecological offices of polyclinics are provided with free contraceptives; explanatory work is carried out among newlyweds, young families, separately - with women of fertile age. At present, the decline in the birth rate in the Republic of Uzbekistan can be perceived as a positive trend, since it, to a certain extent, solves the acute problem of life support, which requires the search for a territorial and resource-intensive space that can meet the annually increasing human needs.
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