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ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИЕ И МИГРАУИОННЫЕ ПРОУЕССЫ В КАЗАХСТАНЕ ВО ВТОРОЙ ПОЛОВИНЕ ХХ - НАЧАЛЕ XXI ВВ.
DEMOGRAPHIC AND MIGRATION PROCESSES IN KAZAKHSTAN IN THE SECOND HALF OF XX - EARLY XXI CENTURIES
В данной статье исследуются исторические процессы развития демографии в Казахстане второй половины ХХ - начала XXI вв. Автор рассматривает историко-сравнительный анализ факторов демографической катастрофы в истории Казахстана и тем самым проводит параллель с днем сегодняшним. В статье изучаются факторы, влияющие на демографические процессы: рождаемость, смертность, семейно-брачные отношения и вопросы миграции населения в исследуемый период.
This article explores the historical processes of demography development in Kazakhstan in the second half of XX - beginning of XXI centuries. The author examines the historical and comparative analysis of the factors of demographic catastrophe in the history of Kazakhstan and thus draws a parallel with nowadays. The article examines the factors influencing demographic processes such as birth rate, mortality, family and marriage relationship and migration issues in the studied period.
Ключевые слова: история, демография, рождаемость, смертность, миграция, брачный союз, неполная семья, современность.
Key words: history, demography, birth rate, mortality, migration, marriage, incomplete family, modernity.
Throughout the second half of XX century the dynamics of population of Kazakhstan underwent numerous changes. During this period all negative consequences of those phenomena which took place in the first half of the XX century began to affect. These are consequences of resettlement policy of the beginning of the XX century, revolt of 1916, civil war, hunger of the beginning of the 1930th years, collectivization, forced relocations, repressions. Big impact on dynamics of demographic development of Kazakhstan was made by the Great Patriotic War as at this time on the territory of Kazakhstan the industrial enterprises and labor power were evacuated, many nations were deported. All this was reflected in demographic characteristics of the republic and caused a number of serious problems in the second half of the XX century. At the present stage the demographic situation in the republic is still assessed as adverse, in other words there is an annual reduction of population owing to continues to decrease in birth rate, high incidence and mortality and also considerable migration outflow. Although, in comparison with two decades ago, the demographic situation in Kazakhstan now tends to gradually improve, but for the active growth of demography, that is, the ability to self-reproduction, to constant self-renewal through the process of changing generations, i.e. through fertility and mortality, specific government measures are needed to create conditions for socio-economic stability and prosperity for the state. In this connection, there is a need for research in the field of demography and, in particular, migration processes in Kazakhstan through the prism of the past. The article uses methods: historical-comparative analysis, statistical, method of socio-demographic research. In this research used materials from archival documents, statistical data on the republic, an attempt was made to consider the unfavorable factors of the current demographic situation and migration processes in Kazakhstan through the historical past, and specific proposals for solving these problems were considered. This study did not attempt to study all aspects of demographic and migration processes - this complex and diverse
А.Ж. ГАБДУЛИНА
A.ZH. GABDULINA
topic. However, this study makes it possible to approach the understanding of the results of the current demographic situation and migration processes in Kazakhstan at the present stage through the historical past (albeit not so far) and to resolve the issues of its optimal resettlement of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan under specific conditions.
According to the All-Union population census of 1989, the number of enumerated population of the republic was 16536511 people, resident - 16464464 people. Formation of population happens under the influence of two factors - natural increase and balance of migration. In the second half of the XX century each of these factors acted one by one in a leading role in the course of formation of population of Kazakhstan.
For the 1950-1980th years the defining role in formation of population of Kazakhstan was played by a rate of natural increase. Namely at the expense of natural increase the population of the republic annually increased. The level of natural increase was sufficient for regular reproduction of the population. Until 1968 the high rate of natural increase was complemented with migration inflow. Since 1968 growth of the population of the Republic was provided only at the expense of the natural increase.
The migration role in formation of number and structure of the population of Kazakhstan was considerable during development of virgin and fallow lands. By the beginning of the 1960th years the total population growth in Kazakhstan was provided with migration more than by 1/3. From 1954 to 1965 the republic was provided with the additional population at the expense of people who developed virgin lands. At this time there was an active process of movement of the whole families to Kazakhstan that promoted increase in efficiency of migration. So, in 1960 to the republic there arrived 17985 families, in 1962 - 29655 families, in 1963 - 12766 families, in 1964 - 8561 families. The indicator of "fixing" of families on places of residence was quite high: 1960 - 89,1%, 1961 - 86,1%, 1962 -76,7%, 1963 - 75,9%, 1964 - 85,5%. According to the Kazakhstan demographers, from 1954 to 1962, 119514 families moved to Kazakhstan plus some more hundreds of thousands of specialists of agricultural industry without family. Namely at the expense of this the number only of rural population of the republic increased by 2 million people from 1953 to 1966 [1, p. 35]. Entrants represented generally working-age population.
By the middle of the 1960th years the tendency of reduction in number of the coming families and increase in number of "singles", that is people who came on earnings, without the obvious aspiration to be fixed here, was formed. It instantly affected indicators of migration efficiency.
Since 1968 in the republic the negative balance of migration was formed, but the high rate of natural increase did not allow it to be shown and have strong impact on population throughout the long period - up to the beginning of the 1990th years. Thus, since the end of the 1960th until the end of the 1980th years the total increase in population of the republic was provided only at the expense of natural increase. The migration gain exerted limited impact on formation of population of Kazakhstan which during this period possessed sufficient internal sources for reproduction.
The population decrease falls at the beginning of the 1990th years of the XX century. The defining role in this was played by migration outflow from Kazakhstan. Up to 1993 the population of Kazakhstan though slowly, but annually increased. From 1990 to 1992 only the rate of natural increase allowed to provide total increase in population of the republic and to neutralize migration impact. 1993 became critical. The highest population of Kazakhstan throughout history was recorded this year. But this year the increased rate of migration decrease exceeded the decreased rate of natural increase, what affected the total number of population. Since 1993 the population of the republic is annually reduced.
The scale of demographic losses of Kazakhstan can be measured, comparing the following data. From 1979 to 1992 inclusive (for 14 years) the total in-
crease in the population of Kazakhstan made more than 2,3 million people. Just in 6 years - from 1993 to 1999 - the population was reduced by 2 million people [2, p. 5].
So, throughout the 1950th - the beginning of the 1960th years migration in many respects promoted growth of population of Kazakhstan, supplementing "contribution" of natural increase. Since the end of 1960 - until the end of the 1980th years replenishment of population was provided only at the expense of natural increase. The migration outflow out of borders of Kazakhstan which was becoming more active in the 1990s determined the sizes and rates of population decrease.
It is quite difficult to trace the dynamics of population by regions, including East Kazakhstan, during 1959-1999. It is connected with those discrepancies which meet in the published sources for different years. Besides, within 19601990th years several times there were administrative-territorial transformations. Thus, in 1989 the territory of Kazakhstan was subdivided into 17 regions, in 1995 - into 19 regions, since 1997 - into 14 regions. Therefore data in the table are provided in terms of regions only at the dates of two last censuses. The data by regions for 1989 presented in the table are provided according to modern administrative-territorial division.
Table 1
Population by regions of Kazakhstan in 1989-1999, thous. people
Region 1959 1999
Akmola 1064,4 836,3
Aktyubinsk 732,6 682,6
Almaty 1642,9 1558,5
Atyrau 424,7 440,3
West Kazakhstan 629,5 616,8
Zhambyl 1038,7 988,8
Karaganda 1745,4 1410,2
Kostanay 1223,8 1017,7
Kyzylorda 574,5 596,2
Mangystau 324,2 314,7
South Kazakhstan 1823,5 1978,3
Pavlodar 942,3 806,9
North Kazakhstan 912,1 725,9
East Kazakhstan 1767,2 1531
City of Astana 281,2 319,3
City of Almaty 1071,9 1129,4
As we see, the population in the East Kazakhstan region for the specified period was reduced by 236,2 thousand people. In general, the population increased only in 4 regions - Atyrau, Kyzylorda, Mangystau, South Kazakhstan. These regions have the highest birth rates as generally the Kazakh population lives there. At the same time they are attractive also for migrants: the Atyrau region - because of existence of oil fields and possibility of high earnings; the South Kazakhstan region - border area with good climatic conditions which also give the chance to have an additional source of subsistence.
The raw orientation of economic development of Kazakhstan in the 19501980th years determined high rates of urbanization. If in 1959 the share of urban population made 43,7%, then in 1970 - 50,3%, in 1979 - 53,5%, in 1989 - 57,1%. Some decrease in the share of citizens is characteristic of the present stage: 1999 -55,9%, 2001 - 55,8%. Some increase in the share of rural population, and de-
crease in the share of urban population is caused by bigger migration activity of citizens and higher birth rates in the rural zone. The share of citizens began to decrease in 1993 - just then decrease of total number of the population began.
In the XX century in Kazakhstan multiethnic society was created. As a result of repressions of the 1930th - the beginning of the 1950th years, deportations, special resettlements, evacuation in days of the Great Patriotic War, conducting of campaign for development of virgin and fallow lands, the multinational structure of the population was formed. This in many respects defined the line of demographic development of the republic in the second half of the XX century. Dynamics of the Kazakh population throughout 1959-1999 was characterized by considerable growth rates. In absolute figures the Kazakh population of the republic for these 40 years increased by 2,9 times - from 2787,3 to 7985 thousand people. So high growth rates of the titular nation were caused by many reasons: growth of birth rate among Kazakhs, migration outflow of representatives of other nationalities and rather low migration activity of indigenous people.
Throughout 1959-1999 years Kazakhs were the only nation in the territory of Kazakhstan which showed increase in proportion and number in absolute figures. Nevertheless, in the 1960-1970th years by number of population Kazakhs took only the second place (after Russians) - their proportion was a little more than 1/3: in 1959 - 30,0%, in 1970 - 32,5%, in 1979 - 36,0%. Such ethnic imbalance was in many respects caused by active inflow of representatives of other nationalities from union republics. Thus, in two years (1968-1969) to the territory of Kazakhstan there arrived 262200 migrants from RSFSR (25,6% of all migrants); 47700 people - from Ukraine (4,6%); 44334 people - from Uzbekistan (4,3%); 24208 people - from Kyrgyzstan (2,4%). Only by 1989 for the first time for many decades the share of the Kazakh population exceeded the share of Russians and made 39,7% [3, 87].
It should be noted that the population decrease by the end of the XX century was in many respects predictable. It is possible to draw a conclusion to such effect, having tracked dynamics of average annual rates of population increase of Kazakhstan for the long period. Thus, during the intercensus period from 1939 to 1959 average annual rates of population increase were 4,3%. From 1959 to 1970 this factor decreased though remained still rather high - 3,1%. Average annual rates of population increase for the intercensus period from 1970 to 1979 were only 1,36%, from 1979 to 1989 - 1,19%. After the census of 1989 the population of Kazakhstan increased up to 1993 with the average annual rate of 0,67% [4, p. 38]. By the end of 1993 the population of Kazakhstan decreased and up to 2002 goes annually down. Thus, average annual rates of population decrease of the republic were designated.
However, zero years did not become so negative; the subsequent growth of the population bears witness of that.
For the young republic in 25 years, the demographic question is the vital factor of safety of the earth as at rather small population Kazakhstan takes the ninth place across the territory in the world.
Today in the country, the government attempts to make actual an issue of demography growth by favorable social conditions under which the birth rate sharply would increase. However, world economic crisis, economic sanctions imposed by the western states in Russia and also other internal problems of the republic negatively affect a social and economic situation in Kazakhstan. These and other problems do not give, unfortunately, the chance to us to live as we could afford, we have for this purpose all conditions, but, in reality, the population lives in poverty, in constant rush toward daily bread. Kazakhstan lives under severe conditions of high prices and low wages. What sort of statistical data would not be given to us by media or government about stabilization of economic situation of the republic, situation is visible, especially if to see regions of the country.
However the facts of demography growth are obvious and figures indicate that - 17,5 million people, i.e. in the republic about 20 thousand people are born
every month (plus or minus). It is good if to say that it is a natural increase of the population. Though, behind this figure, there are also other facts, and they are not so consolatory, it is connected with high mortality, including, children, sharp increase in incomplete families, also babies who were born out of marriage, etc.
For example, mortality of men tends to growth also today, and even in the accelerated form, than at women. Unfortunately, the number of infantile mortality is without real basis, i.e. the figure is valid, but data about its decrease are only the evidence that today the slow rate of birth rate and the general decrease against the background of mortality of babies takes place.
Demography has long process and cannot lie within ten or twenty-year Program, irrespective of historical time it represents the period of a long-term tendency of the population development which is the carrier of certain public relations. Here, an important role is played by not only increase in growth of the population, but also qualitative characteristics of the population as they are two main indicators, so-called, barometers of a condition of the state, and together with it, they show level in economic and political development of the republic.
At the general positive aspect of demographic situation in comparison with the 90th, by 2003 in Kazakhstan, experts still predicted depopulation as decrease in average life expectancy of the population continued. However, comparing the average duration of the population to the western countries, demographers came to a conclusion that women of the republic live by 3-11 years, and men by 1421 year less than in the developed western countries. Such stunning negative data in a demographic question Kazakhstan had no for 40-50 years [5, p. 7].
Other important aspects of demographic situation are issues of the family and marriage relations and population migration.
Family and marriage relations are one of important welfare measures of the country and its natural increase of the population. In 2015 the natural increase of the population of Kazakhstan made 21,848 thousand people, and in general in January-May - 103,471 thousand people. At the same time in May, 2015 in the republic 8 792 marriages were contracted. But today, demographers noted that number of women exceeds number of men - 52% and 48%, respectively [6, p. 5]. Such statistics gives quite depressing forecast. What shall those women do, who, so to say, lacked men as their potential husband and father of children. Our society leaves the women who did not manage to become wives and mothers with these problems alone when they often become hostages of the natural desires, and go to difficult and laboring stride for themselves and their family, becoming mistresses or the second wives to execute their mission on the earth - to become mother. Today this figure every day grows. If we add women who give birth to children out of marriage, this figure will be even higher and too in the accelerating quantity for every day.
The historical processes which were taking place in the XIX-XX centuries in Kazakhstan, and even earlier are the reasons of negative tendencies of demographic situation today. Let's consider any page of history and any time, the territory of Kazakhstan was always in the status of capture or siege of territories and fight for the lands. The burning issue of shortage of male population in relation to female became result of such constant fight, and if to refer to the XX century, then we obviously trace artificial genocide of the Kazakh people in the 20-30th years of totalitarian regime, repressions, wars, huge number of migration inflow of the population in the period of virgin soil, etc.
However, since 2002, the steady tendency of decrease in negative balance of migration and its transition in 2004 in positive was outlined. In structure of the migration flows which arrived in 2007 in the republic, a considerable part was represented by Kazakhs - 78,2% of total number of entrants, Russian - 12,5%. Among the migrants who left the republic Russians made 69,5%, Ukrainians -8,1%, Germans - 7,1%.
According to the demographic characteristic Kazakhstan is the most various country, here both east and western types of demographic behavior get along together.
In 2015, 8 928 people (7 855 in the same period of last year) emigrated from Kazakhstan, 6 827 people (7 296) immigrated to the country.
Thus, statisticians note, in January-May, 2015 in the republic the negative balance of migration made 2 101 people.
In January-April, 2016 the number of the migrants who left the country in comparison with January-April, 2015 increased by 16,3% and made 7 663 people. At the same time, according to demographers, the number of registered entrants in the country for the habitual residence (migrants) decreased by 23,9% and made 4 142 people. Negative balance of migration - 3 521 people [7, p. 12].
The President's Letter to the people of RK "Kazakhstan - 2030. Prosperity, Safety and Improvement of Welfare of All Kazakhstan Citizens" especially notes: "A strong population and migration policy has to be put in a rank of the leading priorities of a homeland security. If our public authorities still treat it apathetically, then at the turn of the XXI century we will enter after Russia a situation of "a demographic cross" when the population decreases already not only because of processes of external migration, but also naturally. This tendency has to be immediately stopped." [8, p. 7]. Defining negative lines of modern development, N.A. Nazarbayev pointed to depopulation of the end of the XX century which was the most dangerous from any point of view.
These important aspects in the demographic situation have to be a main part of social and economic policy of the state and to be a basis of public policy.
Today more and more mass media repeat about growth of so-called "babyboom" in the world and our country did not become an exception. For our policy it is important not to lose such positive aspiration of increase in the population as, despite tension in the social sphere, there is a gradual falling of mortality rates.
Growth of "baby-boom" will become a financial crisis recovery for national economy when today's babies in 20 years, having graduated from schools, higher education institutions, will begin to work and boost the national economy, thereby also will be able to compensate process of aging of the population. The more a population increase, the better for our country in all aspects, at least to reach 150 million people and then we will be able not to be afraid of "external claims" any more.
References
1. Results of the All-Union Census of the USSR 1989, Moscow, 1990, 35 p.
2. Compiled according to the results of the 1989 All-Union Population Census. Short results of the 1999 census in the Republic of Kazakhstan. P. 5, Almaty, 2000, pp. 376-380
3. Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Compiled according to a study by the Institute of Economic Research. Almaty, 2003, 87 p.
4. Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Compiled according to: Regions of Kazakhstan. Almaty, 2003, 38 p.
5. Indicators of economic and social growth of regions. Population. Archive of the regional department of statistics. Table 12, PH, 159 p.
6. Indicators of economic and social development of regions. Population. Archive of the Regional Department of Statistics. Table 13, PH, 5 p.
7. Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Compiled according to the Ministry of National Economy of the RK, P.12, 2016, June 15 (in Russian).
8. The Message of the President to the people of the Republic of Kazakhstan «Kazakhstan - 2030. Prosperity, security and improvement of well-being of all Kazakhstanis». Information portal ZAKON.KZ. Astana, 2007, October 10 (in Russian).
