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from the Caspian region), resolving regional conflicts and creating effective regulation of interstate relations, along with rendering economic and humanitarian aid.
"Vlast", Moscow, 2013, No 1, pp. 170-173.
Georgi Rudov, D. Sc. (Political sciences) CENTRAL ASIA IN STRATEGIC CONCEPTS OF RUSSIA
Central Asia is a region rich in natural resources, occupying an advantageous geostrategic position in the center of Eurasia and facing a complex tangle of economic, social, ethnoconfessional and political problems. At present it founds itself in the center of the struggle for global leadership between the leading world powers.
The position of Russia fixed in its basic foreign-policy documents lies in the "development of bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the CIS countries." Russia is ready to build friendly relations with each state of Central Asia on the basis of equality, mutual benefit, respect and due consideration of each other's interests, as well as develop relations of strategic partnership with countries expressing readiness for it.
Our country wishes not only to expand cooperation with Central Asian states in the economic and humanitarian spheres, but also to improve the system of ensuring mutual security, including joint opposition to common challenges and threats, above all, international terrorism, religious extremism, drug trafficking, transnational criminal activity, and illegal migration. In connection with a dangerous situation which has emerged in the region, the primary task facing it is to prevent destabilization of the situation and neutralize the threat of terror and
drug production and trafficking. Russia calls on its Central Asian neighbors to work together on the further realization of the potential of the CIS as a regional organization for a multilateral political dialogue and the mechanism of multilateral cooperation with priorities in the sphere of economics, humanitarian interaction, and the struggle against the traditional and new challenges and threats.
The new system of international relations (after the events of September 11, 2001), with account of the military operations of the United States and NATO in Afghanistan and Iraq, the possibility of their direct presence in the region did not reduce military threats and possible conflicts, but only changed their form. The situation in Central Asia develops so rapidly that it is necessary to make corrections to any variants. Suffice it to recall the events of 2005 (we mean the overthrow of President A. Akayev of Kyrgyzstan), and also in 2010 when a sanguinary drama took place as a result of the resignation of President K. Bakiyev in Kyrgyzstan, which led to numerous victims, especially in the south of the republic. One cannot forget many casualties during the Andizhan clashes in Uzbekistan in 2005. It can be assumed that local conflicts are quite possible on the territory of Central Asian republics, which may turn into armed clashes in the struggle for land, and water and energy resources. Such densely populated region as the Ferghana Valley where the interests of four (out of five) republics of the region are closely intertwined (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan and Tajikistan) presents a great potential danger. One should not exclude the active drawing of Russia in these processes, but not only in the capacity of an arbiter, but also as a supplier of material and manpower resources.
The formation processes of statehood in the countries of Central Asia and international cooperation are directly connected with the continuing geopolitical struggle for influence in the region and the
aftermath of the world economic crisis, as well as the historical past with its errors in national-territorial demarcation committed during the Soviet period.
The national borders, which were called "administrative" prior to the 1990s, and which were established voluntarily and changed several times during the existence of the U.S.S.R., showed a great ethno-confessional variety of newly-independent states by the time of the disintegration of the country. For example, according to official data, representatives of the titular nations comprise 56 percent in Kazakhstan, 64 percent in Kyrgyzstan, and 79.9 percent in Tajikistan. In Uzbekistan the share of Uzbeks is 80 percent, and the share of Turkmen in Turkmenistan is 77 percent. However, the specificity of this region is connected with the presence of ethno-confessional segments living compactly on the territory of these republics, which, in some cases, just as the titular nations, are autochthonous, and in other cases are mixed with diasporas of another culture and another origin. For instance, the share of Russians living mainly in the northern districts of Kazakhstan comprises 30 percent, in Kyrgyzstan - 12.5 percent, Turkmenistan - four percent, and Uzbekistan - 5.5 percent. Uzbeks account for 14 to 20 percent of the population of Kyrgyzstan, and in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan their share is from five to 15.3 percent. These are the shares of the biggest diasporas, to say nothing of Ukrainians, Belarusians, Uighurs, Tatars, and representatives of other peoples and nationalities. So, the presence on the CIS territory of national segments from neighboring states living compactly remains one of the most serious problems in the development of regional cooperation.
However, this objective circumstance should not be viewed as the only obstacle to interstate cooperation and integration tendencies. The results of almost twenty years of regional cooperation and
integration of Central Asian countries whose main aim is to restore the broken economic ties, and speed up economic reforms and integration in the world economy leave much to be desired.
As is known, in 1992 Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan set up an interstate organization - the Central Asian Regional Cooperation. In 1994 a treaty was signed on the creation of a uniform economic area between Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and in 1995 the Program of the economic integration of these countries up to 2000 began to be implemented. In 1998 this structure was defined as the "Central Asian Economic Community", and in February 2002, at a meeting of the presidents of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the Organization of Central Asian Cooperation was officially set up. However, the 10-y ear-long search for integration models did not bring any serious results in the development of the region. More than two hundred agreements were signed during this period, but many of them remained on paper only.
The Central Asian countries still do not have a clear vision of how the water resources should be used for mutual benefit. Besides, there is no timely exchange of information between them, which has a negative influence on the struggle against drug trafficking, which becomes the main evil which is very difficult to suppress. The inadequate level of cooperation between these countries has induced them to adopt a decision on their integration in the EurAsian Economic Cooperation Organization at the summit in St. Petersburg on October 7, 2005.
From that time on the following stages in the economic cooperation between the Central Asian countries can be singled out:
First, the Customs Union was set up in July 2010 and the uniform system of transport tariffs was adopted. Secondly, a free-trade zone was created. And lastly, the task of organizing the Eurasian
Common Market has all chances for successful implementation, inasmuch as there is a stable tendency toward the intensification of cooperation between the states of this Community in such major spheres as regional security, efficient use of the water-and-energy resources, the creation of the regional transport infrastructure, and trade-economic and humanitarian-cultural relations.
Certain integration initiatives for strengthening ties between the Central Asian countries should also be remembered. For example, in 2005 President N. Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan proposed to set up the "Union of Central Asian States." This proposal was repeated in 2007. So far it has not received support from other countries of the region. In turn, President I. Karimov of Uzbekistan put forward a proposal in April 2008 to create a free-trade zone between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and the President of Kyrgyzstan proposed to set up a bilateral alliance between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. However, as long as all these proposals have a declarative character and depend on the political ambitions of the countries' leaders, the question remains open and undecided.
It should be borne in mind that the integration tendencies and moods of the ruling elites of the countries of the region often appear and develop separately from Moscow's desires and are, to a certain degree, a consequence of the activity of the Euro-Atlantic bodies, as well as of Beijing, and are ultimately aimed at tearing Central Asia away from Russia. To this long-term strategy should be added the real military presence of NATO and the activated mechanism of integrating Central Asian countries in the European Union. For instance, the project of expansion of Europe after the implementation of the "neighborhood" program in Georgia and the South Caucasus has emerged in Central Asian countries, too. At the same time, one can presume that NATO and the European Union are hardly ready to
assume full responsibility for protecting security in this unstable region. This is why attention should be devoted to such regional organization as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). By now the total area of the SCO member-states amounts to about 30 million square kilometers, which takes three-fifths of Eurasian area, and the population - more than 1.5 billion, that is one quarter of the entire global population. After Iran, India and Pakistan have received the observer status at the SCO summit in Tashkent in 2005, the geographic, demographic, economic and political weight of this organization has increased considerably. From the point of view of the development of international cooperation the SCO is important and promising not only as an organization "to fight the threats of a new generation" (I. Karimov), but also as an organization ensuring economic interaction, cooperation in the sphere of transport and communications, and in the field of culture and science. The overwhelming number of experts and analysts regard the SCO as the most successful organization in Eurasia.
During the years of independence the Central Asian countries have implemented a number of major integration projects. For instance, in 1996 the Tejen - Serakhs - Meshkhed - Bender - Abbas railway line was commissioned, which connected the railway system of the countries of the region with the Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. The construction of the Tashkent - Andizhan - Osh, Sarytash - Irkeshtam motor roads, and also the autobahn through Kazakhstan with an outlet to China, the Turkmenistan - Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan - China gas pipeline has contributed to the intensification of economic cooperation not only between Central Asian countries, but also between Central Asia and China. In other words, there is a host of problems connected with the integration of the Central Asian countries. We shall now dwell on some of the pre-crisis indices.
For example, the main partners of Uzbekistan are Ukraine, Russia and China. Among the Central Asian countries, it is only Kazakhstan that is actively cooperating with Uzbekistan, in whose export its share comprises 7.26 percent, and in import - 4.8 percent. Turkmenistan has no serious economic relations with the states of the region. Its main partners are Ukraine, Turkey, China and Russia. Tajikistan has economic contacts with Uzbekistan (export - 7.92 percent, import - 4.78 percent) and Kazakhstan - 8.92 percent of import. Despite certain difficulties, plans of commercial export of electric energy from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan become gradually implemented. Kyrgyzstan is actively cooperating only with Kazakhstan (export - 12.4 percent, import - 5.9 percent) and Uzbekistan (export - 15.72 percent).
During the years of independence economic cooperation of the Central Asian countries with one another has been declining steadily, ceding place to China, Turkey and Iran. Russia is still an important participant in the economic sphere.
It is hard to predict what new challenges to regional or global security can emerge in Central Asia and around it. It is not yet known what twists and turns we can expect in the domestic and foreign policy of the countries of the region, even in a short-term prospect (for example in determining their new key allies). It is not quite clear how other big non-regional powers will behave in the present and future conditions.
In our view, diversity of approaches to the determination of Central Asian policy on the part of western states can be explained with due account of the ambiguity of the very structure of relations in the region, as well as the policy conducted by all five Central Asian countries and their elites.
In these conditions the possibility of creating an alliance of Central Asian states seems rather problematic. Nevertheless, integration is possible, even necessary. It could be hoped that the removal of all customs barriers within the framework of the tripartite alliance -Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus might serve as an effective impetus for other Central Asian states. The meeting of the heads of government of the eight CIS members in St. Petersburg in November 2011 worked out their integration plans. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine held their own views on the principal questions and did not sign certain documents.
It can be forecast that if closer economic cooperation with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is not established, serious practical steps should be taken for the reliable presence of Russia in the region.
With the present alignment of forces and the present leaders of these countries it would be difficult to imagine the possibility of mutual concessions, and consequently, there are hardly any prospects for the creation of a firm alliance of Central Asian states on the basis of active integration processes.
"Rossiya i mirovoi politichesky protsess", Moscow, 2012, pp. 66-71.
Valentin Bogatyrev,
Coordinator at the analytical consortium "Perspektiva" (Bishkek) THE LEAST OF ALL EVILS
Despite ten years of Kyrgyzstan's membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the country still has little experience of relations with it. If not for regular meetings of officials
