CC BY
2X^UmUum^mU ^mjnLbnLpjmU qUmhmrn^mU JnrnhgnLJUhpp
Shifinjmh 4. L.
3Jihmhumhm2liujJih mifpjinhji luuiqppiuhm, b'Z (Zmjmummh, bphiuh)
vtepoyan@yahoo.com
4^nnpn£ pmnhp ф]hшhuшЦшh ^mjnLhnLpjnth, IhpinL&nLpjnLh, Jm^pntf]-
gmlmjp, upphuu phum, 2пЦ, impmpmj]h phn
Подходы оценки финансовой устойчивости
Тепоян В. Л.
Кафедра финансов и бухгальтерского учета, ЕГУ (Армения, Ереван
vtepoyan@yahoo.com
Резюме: Статья посвящена вопросам оценки финансовой устойчивости в разных странах. Проанализированы общие подходы реализации денежно-кредитной политики в США, Великобритании, стран Европейского союза, Канады и России по отношению подходов и компонентов оценки финансовой устойчивости экономики. Специально обсуждается модель оценки финансовой устойчивости Центрального банка Армении. Ключевые слова: финансовая устойчивость, макропруденциальный анализ, макросреда, стресс-тест, шок, долг
Approaches for Evaluating Financial Stability
Tepoyan V. L.
Department of Finance and Accounting, YSU (Armenia, Yerevan)
vtepoyan@yahoo.com
Abstract: The article is devoted to the assessment of financial stability in different countries. The general approaches to the implementation of monetary policy in the United States, Great Britain, European Union countries, Canada and Russia were analyzed in relation to the approaches and components of assessing the financial stability of the economy. ^e model for assessing the financial stability of the Central Bank of Armenia is discussed in detail. Key words: financial stability, macro-prudential analysis, macro environment, stress test, shock, debt
$]hmhum^mh ^mjnLhnLpjnthp mjhi]u] t, hpp mhmhuntpjmh pmh^mj]h, n^ pmh^ ф]hшhuшlшpЦш]]h hmmlm&hhpp, ф]-hmhum^mh 2n^mh h l^mpmhm2lmp^mj]h hmJm^mpqp mhhpmdh2rn ^hp^nl ]pm^m-hmghnttf hh ]phhg phm^mhnh qnp&m.hhntp-jnthp h nthm^ hh m^mbnlh^nL hp^p] ]pmg-lh|]nLpjmh Jm^mpqm^p mpmmp]h h hhpp]h J]gmlmjphp] mhpmphh^mum mqqhgntpjnth-hhp] imjJmhhhpntJ:
$]hmhum^mh ^mjnthntpjmh m^mhnl-Jmh ^hq]pp hp^phhp] Jhb tfmunttf mnmg]h hhpp]h ^hhmpnhm^mh pmh^hp] qnp&m-nntjph t: UhqL]mj] pmh^p, op]hm^ nth] hp-^nt h]tfhm^mh mnmg]h шщш-
hnlh qpmtfmlmp^mj]h ^mjnLhnLpjnth h hp^-pnpq ф]hшhuшЦшh ^mjnLhnLpjnth1: Ulu-mpm^mj] fthqhplmj]h pmh^] hmtfmp hp^p] ф]hшhuшЦшh ^mjnLhnLpjnthp hmtfmplnttf t
hpm hp^mpmdmtf^hm impmm^mhntpjnLhp: Hpn2 qhiphpntJ ф]hшhuшЦшh ^mjnthntp-jnthp hmJmplntJ тфш^ hp^p] ^hhmpnhm-^mh pmh^] mnmghm]]h himmm^hhp]g, op]hm^ blpn^m^mh ^hhmpnhm^mh pmh^] mnmghm]]h ^hq]phhph hh qhhp] ^mjnthntp-jnthp, gm&p qnpbmqp^ntpjnthp h mhmhum-^pmhnttfp2: 3]hmummh] dnqnlp-qm^mh pmh^] mnmghm]]h ^hq]phhph hh qhhp] ^mjnthnLpjnthp h mhmhum^mh ^pmhnttfp: UUb-] ihqhpm^ imhntummj]h hmtfm^mpq] h]tfhm^mh himmm^hhph
hh gm&p qnpbmqp^ntpjnthp h qhhp] ^mjnt-hntpjnthp: Um^mjh ф]hшhuшЦшh ^mjnthntp-jnthp pnjnp qhiphpntJ hmhq]umhnttf t hpmhg ^mphnp ^hq]phhp]g ЦшЛ qnp&m-nntjphhp]g Jh^p:
2
1 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about
http://www.centralbanksguide.com/european+central+bank/
UUb-nnI ф^ЬшЬиш^шЬ Цш]пъип!р]ши qUшhшшIшIp qpшq^nLI t i^Z Чшпш^шр^^-Uhp^ ftinphntpqp: ЧЬр^^и^и ^ql^g шпшЬЛ.-ишдЬпШ hU ф^ишкишЦши Цш]пъипър]ши hh-п^иЦЬрр 2n^hp U ф^ишкишЦши hш-IшЦшpq^ ^ngh^ ^qlhp: Cn^hpp ф^ЬшЬиш-ЦшЬ hшIшЦшpq^ gUgntlUhp hU,
npnUp qd^p t Uш^шщhu ЦшU^шшhuhL, ^иЦ ^ngh^ ^qlhpp Л.Uш^np^nLI hU npn2шЦ^ dшIшUшЦшhшш^ш&nLI, qpшUp ш^ф hh2s t q^шшpЦhl_p U ЦшU^шшhuhl_p: UpqjntUpnLl ф^ишиишЦши Цш]пъипър]ши qUшhшшnLIp i^Z ^ql^g ^hpшphpnLI t hhшUJШL ршцш^-p^Uhp^U3.
S шЦш^Uhp^ qUhp^U, S шUшJ^U rnUmhunLpjntUUhp^ U p^qUhu^ ^p^^np^Up,
S ^pшg^hфnLpjшU n^u^hp^U, S ф^UшUuш^npIшU n^u^hp^U:
U^rn^^Uhpp ^hpLnL&nLpjшU dшIшUшЦ q^-шшpЦ^nLI hU IшuUш^npшщhu шU2шpd qnLJ-p^ qUhpp шшpphp dшIЦhшшJUnLpjшU щшp-шшшnIuhp^ hЦшIшшphpnLpJшU rnmsmUniJ-Uhpp, pшdUhшnIuhp^ ^UqhpuUhp^ Цшк SUшJ^U rnUmhunLpjntUUhp^ U p^qUhu^ ^p^^np^U qUшhшшIшU dшIшUшЦ ^hp-int^ntl hU ^p^^np^U ^^mjUhpj U шш-ph^U rnhJ^hpp, IшuUш^np ^p^^np^U U Z"bU hшpшphpшЦgnLpjшU ц^ш^Цш^ p^qUhu^ U шUшJ^U mUmhuntp-JntUUhp^ щшpшp^ gnLgшU^2Uhpp: ^шд^Ьф-ntp^U ^hplnL&nLpjшU dшIшUшЦ qUшhшш-^ntl t ф^UшUuшЦшU ^Uum^mntmUhp^ pшU-^hp^, шщшhn^шqpшЦшU pU^hpntpjntUUhp^, hhg^nUqhp^ hUшpш^np ^UшuUhp^U Цщ|Цт. nLUшЦnLpjnLUp, ^hpinL&^ntl t UpшUg Цшщ^шшф hшIшpdhpnLpjшU gnLgшU^2Uhpp: Ьф ^hp^^hu qUшhшш^nL.I hU ш]U ф^ш^ uшЦшU n^u^hpp, npnUp Цшщ^шЬ hU «фш^-^nq» шЦш^Uhp^ hhs, ^U^hu op^UшЦ ^ш-щшhn^шqp^ш& ш^шUqUhpp, nh^n qnp^n-UntpJntUUhpp U ш^Ь: Q-Uшhшш^nLI t UшU pшUЦhp^ ^шд^Ьф шЦш^Uhp^ Ьш^шщ U
Uhb Pp]llnшh]lШJnLlI ф^UшUuшЦшU hш-IшЦшpq^ ЦшJnLUnLpjшU qUшhшшIшU hшIшp Ц^шп^пШ hU pшUЦшJ^U hшIшЦшpq^
3 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Financial Stability Report, November 2018
upphuu-phushp, npnUp pUqqp^ntl hU jnp ^n2np hшIшЦшpqшJ^U pшUЦhp: Upphuu-phurnhp^ oqUnLpJшIp qUшhшш^nLI t, ph np-pшUn^ t pшUЦшJ^U hшIшЦшpqp п^шЦ q^-Iшqpш^hlnL hUшpш^np шUшhuшЦшU ^qUш-dшI^U: UJq phurnhp^ dшIшUшЦ шпш^ш-qp^ntl hU ^nU^phrn шUшhuшЦшU gnLgшU^2-Uhp ZшIш2^шphшJ^U ZLU шUЦnLI, Uhb Pp^шшU^ШJ^ Z"bU шUЦnLI, шnЦnuшqpnLJp-Uhp^ ^rnpnt^ шU2шpd qntJp^ qUhp^ ^n-2np шUЦnLI, qnpЬшqpЦnLpJшU ^rnpnt^ ш^ U щцЬ4: Ршд^ ШJu, ф^UшUuшЦшU hшIшЦшpq^ ЦшJnLUnLpJшU qUшhшшIшU dшIшUшЦ ^hp-int^ntl hU pшqшpшЦшU hUшpш^np
шqqhgnLpjnLUUhpp, IшuUш^npшцhu Brexit-^ hUшpш^np hhшUшUpUhpp: i^UшUuшЦшU ЦшJnLUnLpJшU qUшhшшIшU hш2npq pшqшq-p^UhpU hU шUшJ^U rnUrnhunLpJntUUhp^ цшpшpшJ^U phn^ gnLgшU^2Uhpp U Uhb Pp^-ШШU^ШJ^ шpшшp^U ф^UшUuш^npIшU gnL-gшU^2Uhpp, ^hpinL&^ntl hU UшU Ш2^шph^ pn^np hp^pUhp^ цhшшЦшU цшpшp^ шшшш-UntlUhpp: i^UшUuшЦшU ЦшJnLUnLpJшU qUш-hшшIшU dшIшUшЦ hш2^ hU шnU^nLI UшU n^ pшUЦ ф^UшUuшЦшU gnLgшU^2-
Uhpp:
чшьшцш]]1 pшhl^Jl Uu ф^UшUuшЦшU Цш-JnLUnLpJшU qшUшhшшIшU hшIшp ШПШ^ШЦ-pntl t upphuu phushp ЦnUЦphш pшUшЦш-^U gnLgшU^2Uhpn^ цшhшU2шpЦ^ 2nkhp, qLnpшL шUшhunLpJшU шUЦnLI, шU2шpd qntJp^ 2nLЦшJ^ шUgшUЦшф шшшшUnLIUhp, ШПЦП-uшqpnLJpUhp^ ЦшpnLЦ U UIшU цшJIшUUh-pntl qUшhшm^nLI t IшЦшpqшЦp дш-
bp, I^2^U, pшpЛ.p, ^шфшqшUд pшpЛ.p: ОДш-hшш^nLI t ЧшUшqшJ^ ^hg ^n2np pшUЦhp^ gnLgшU^2Uhpp jus PшqhL 3-^ ЦшUnUшЦшpq^ U UnpIшш^^Uhp^5: i^UшUuшЦшU ^JntUntp-JшU qUшhшшIшU dшIшUшЦ ^hpLntb^ntl hU IшЦpnшUшhuшЦшU цшJIшUUhpp, ЧшUшqш-J^ шUшJ^U sUshuntpJntUUhp^ цшpшpшJ^U phn^ gnLgшU^2Uhpp, шU2шpd qntJp^ 2nLЦшU, UшU ф^UшUuшЦшU hшIшЦшpq^ qnpЬшnUш-ЦшU n^uЦhpp IшuUш^npшцhu Ц^phphшU-gшqnpЬnLpJnLUUhpp:
4 Bank of England, Financial stability report, November 2018, Issue N 44, t2 2 Bank of Canada, Financial system Review, June 2018, t2 20
bipniqiujp ^hhinpnhmlpuh pmhl^p (b^P) ^nqf^g ^UmUum^mU ^mj nLUnipj mU qUmhmmfmU fnmhgntfp ^pm^mUmgintf t hphp pmqmqp^Uhpni.
S fmipnmUmhum^mU U imp^minpfmU qm] fmUUhp,
S ^UmUum^mU 2nt^mUhp, S bipmf^ntpj mU ^UmUum^mU hmu-mmmnip] niUUhp:
b^P-U Uu f2m^ntf U ihpLnL&ntf t upphuu-phumhp ^UmUum^mU hmfm^mp-q^U uqmnUmgnq hUmpminp n^u^hpp qUmhm-mh^nL hmfmp, ihpLnL&intf hU bipmf^ntp] mU fmipnmUmhum^mU i^m^p, imp^minpfmU qmj fmUUhpp: U Um^npq qhqphpntf,
b^P-U Uu fh& ni^mqpntpj niU t qmp&Untf sUmj^U mUmhuntpj ntUUhp^ U ^npqnpmm^i hmrnlmfc^ qmpmpmj ^U phn^ gnLgmUfy?Uhp^U, ^U^qhu UmU mU2mpd qnij p^ 2nL^mj ^U: i^-UmUum^mU ^mj nLUnipj mU qUmhmmfmU hm-gnpq pmqmqp^p hmfm2^mphmj ^U m^m^i-Uhp^ qUhp^ ^mU^mmhuntfUhpU hU BVAR6 fnqh^ oqUnipj mfp: O-UmhmminLf hU UmU bipmf^nLpj mU mnmUA.^U hp^pUhp^ qmpsm-mnfuhp^ 2nikmj ^ qmpqmgnifUhpp, imp^m-j ^U qmj fmUUhpp:
ftniumuinmhp ^hhmpnhmljmh pmhljp UmUum^mU ^mj nLUnipj mU qUmhmmfmU fn-qh^p Uhpmnnif t hhmUj mL pmqmqp^Uhpp.
S qjnpmi_ mUmhuntpj mU U hmfm2^mp-hmj ^U ^UmUum^mU 2nL^mUhp^ ihpLnL&ntp-J niU
S ftniumummU^ ^UmUum^mU 2n^m-Uhp^ ihpLnibnLp] niU
S pmU^mj ^U hmfm^mpq^ hmfm^mpqm-j ^U n^u^hp^ qUmhmmntf
S mj l ^UmUu^mmU hmurnmrnnipj niUUh-p^ hmfm^mpqmj ^U n^u^hp^ qUmhmmntf: Zmjmuinmhniif Jm^pnJm^mpqm^niJ UmUum^mU ^mj niUnipj mU mqmhninifp hmU-q^umUntf t ZZ ^hUmpnUm^mU pmU^ ^mpUn-pmqnij U ^Uq^pUhp^g fh^p7: ZZ 4P-U hp^p^ ^UmUum^mU ^mj niUnipj mU qUmhmmfmU hmfmp ^pmnntf t hhmUj mL fnqhLp: i^UmU-um^mU ^mj niUnipj mU qUmhmmfmU hmfmp
European Central Bank, Financial Stability Report, November 2018, tg 42
7 ZZ optUpp ZZ ^hUmpnUm^mU pmU^ fmu^U, pUqniUimb 30 hniU^u^ 1996p.., Znqimb 5
hUmpminp n^u^hpp hmmimbminpinif hU pum qpmUg mnmgmgfmU h^Uq mqpj nipUhp^: Uj q mqpj nipUhp^g fh^p hmfm2^mphmj ^U mUmhunipj niUU t, ^u^ fj niu ^npup tUqnqhU hU ihpmphpnif hU ZZ mUmhunipj mUp: Uj q mqpj nipUhpU hU.
1. mpmmp^U f^gmimj p qUmhmminif t qLnpmL mUmhunipj niUp U ^^UmUum^mU 2ni-^mUhpp,
2. ZZ fm^pn f^gmlmj p qUmhmminif t ZZ fmipnmUmhum^mU i^^m^p,
3. ZZ ^^UmUum^mU 2nL^mUhp^ ^mj ni-Unipj niUp,
4. ZZ ^^UmUum^mU hmurnmrnnipj niUUh-p^ ^mj niUnipj niUp,
5. ZZ ^^UmUum^mU hUpm^mnnLgimbp-Uhp^ ^mj niUnipj niUp:
t^qnqhU f^gmimj p^ qUmhmmfmU dm-fmUm^ qUmhmminif t hmfm2^mphmj ^U mUmhunipj mU pUqhmUnip i^m^p U f^gmq-qmj ^U ^^UmUum^mU 2nL^mUhpp, qpmUgnif hqmb qmpqmgnifUhpp, npnUp mj u ^mf mj U ^hpq ^mpnq hU mnU^ihL ZZ ^^UmUum^mU ^mj niUnipj mUp: Upmmp^U f^gmimj p^ qUmhmmfmU dmfmUm^ hm2i^ hU mnUinif ^n-2np mUmhunipj niUUhpnif mhq^ niUhgnq ^pm-qmpA.nip] niUUhpp U pmqmpm^mUnLp] mU ^n-^n^nipj niUUhpp, fmuUminpmqhu UUL-^, bipnqnmni, Q^UmummU^ mUmhum^mU m^p, qUm^p, qnpbmqp^nLpj mU fm^mpqm^p, mnUmp^ bmimLUhpp U mUmhum^mU i^^m^p pUnipmqpnq h^fUm^mU fmipnmUmhum^mU gnigmU^2Uhpp, mj q hp^pUhp^ qpmfmimp-^mj ^U U hmp^mpj nighmmj ^U pmqmpm^mUnL-pj niU ^pm^mUmgUnq fmpf^UUhp^ npn2nif-Uhpp, pmqmpm^mU qm2m^ i^^m^p: Zm2i^ hU mnUinif qLnpmL mUmhunipj niUnif mUmhum-^mU m^^ qUmhmmm^mUUhpp, npnUp mpinif hU f^gmqqmj ^U imqfm^hpinLp] niUUhp^ ^nq-f^g UUZ, Zmfm2^mphmj ^U pmU^ U mj lU:
Pmg^ ^n2np mUmhunipj niUUhp^g, hm2i^ hU mnUinif fmipnmUmhum^mU qmpqmgnif-Uhpp qmpqmgnq hp^pUhpnif, hmm^mqhu mj U hp^pUhpnif, npnUp ZZ hhm ^n2np mnUm-pmj ^U qnpbpU^hpUhp hU, ^U^q^u^U op^Um^ ftniumummUU t: HhpLnL^inLf hU mqpmUpm-hnifpm] ^U, mpdnipmj ^U 2nt^mUhp^ q^Umf^-^mU, fmuUminpmqhu Umip^, nu^ni, hmgm-hmm^i^ U mj l 2nL^mUhpp hmmni^ ni2mq-
рпър]пъи цшр&иЬр^ ш]Ь шЦт^иЬр^и, прпкр 22 шпЬтршфи hш2^ЬЦ2nnLU Ц2^
пъЬЬи, ^и^цЬи ор^ишЦ цц^и&р, ипфрцЬир: ЧЬр^пъЬ^пъи Ьи ^п2пр шишЬип1р]пъииЬрп1и тпЦпишцрпг^р^ ишЦшрцшЦиЬрр, ^и^цЬи ор^ишЦ ИЦЪ-пъи, Ъ^рпдптпШ, иЬЬ Рр^-цЬтшЦши цшртштпииЬр^ ЬЦшитшрЬрпър|ши ц^иши^Цши, 22 шЬшЬ-ипър]шЬ hшUшр ЦшрЬпр ^шишЦпърръи пъиЬдпц шрдт_]риЬр^ цп]_шр, Ь^рп, ппърф фп^шрдЬр^ тштшипЫЪЬрр Ь и^тпШиЬрр, ^п2пр цЬшп!р]пъииЬр^ ЦЬитрпишЦши ршк-ЦЬр^ Цпци^д ршqшфU тпЦпишцрпг^риЬр^ ишhUшUпLUUЬрр, и^ршиЦшфи тпЦпиш-црпг^иЬрр: ЧЬр^пгЬпърлши риршдрпЫи дкш-hшmшЦшUUЬрр Ь шифпфпШиЬрр Цштшр-Ьи ЬрЦшршдшиЦЬт Ь Цшр^шдшиЦЬт hЬnшUЦшрUЬрпф 2шрЦ Ь ^Ь^, пр д^прш^ ш2-^шрhпLU тЬц^ пъиЬдпц ЦпиЦрЬт ^ршцшр-ЛтрлпъииЬр Цшрпц Ьи шии^шЦшипрЬи ^шшидЬ^ 22 ф^ишиишЦши Цшлпъипърлпъир: ишииш^пршцЬи 2014р.фд иЦишЬ Лпшши-шши^ иЦшш^ш^р цштдши^пдиЬр^ Ц^-ршппШр ИиЪф Ь Ъ^рпцшф Цпци^д hшU-дЬдр^и шишЬипър]ши ЦтрпъЦ ^штрш-ршдишир, ^и^ hЬmЬшUpп^ ЦтрпъЦ Цр^шт-^Ьд^и Л1фд ^ш]шишши ЬЦпц тршиифЬрт-иЬрр hшUqЬдUЬLп^ шрдпършфи ^ишдши^ Ь ф^ишиишЦши цп]_шршфи ^ршд-
^Ьфпърши ЦтрпъЦ Цр^шш^ши:
22 ф^ишиишЦши Цш]пъипър]ши qUшhшm-иши hш2прq ршдр 22 ^шЦрпшишЬишЦши qUшhшmпLUU Ь, ишииш^пршцЬи ^ршЦши 2"ЪИф ш^р, шиЬшЬипър]ши шшррЬр ^¡пщЬрпъи ш^^ дпъдши^иЬрр, ^шрЦш^пр-иши Ьш^ш^Ьрр, цЬшшЦши h^UUш-
Цши дпгдши^иЬрр, ^£шршфи hш2^ЬЦ2^nр Ь шршшр^и шпЬтпърр, црш Цшппъд^шЬрр, тишфи шишЬип!р]пъииЬр^ ЬЦш^пъшиЬрр Ь цшртршфи рЬпр, ш2^шшшир^ 2^Цшф дпъ-дши^иЬрр и^^^и ш2^штш^шр& Ь qпрЬш-qрЦпLр]шU ишЦшр^шЦ, тишфи титЬипър-]пъииЬр^ ЬЦшипъшиЬр Ь цшртршфи рЬп, шршЬрЦр^д итшд^пц шршиифЬршиЬр, ф^-ишиишЦши hшиmшmпLрjпl.UUЬр^ иЦштишир тишфи шишЬип!р]пъииЬр^ цшртш^прпър-]пъииЬр, 22 шпЬтршфи ршиЦЬр^ Ь ^шрЦшфи ЦшqUшЦЬрцпLрjпl.UUЬр^ ицшппцшЦши, фпрЬршфи цпртфЬф Цшппъд^шЬр, ^шрЦш-
фи тпЦпишцрпг^иЬр^ ^^иши^Цш, шиш]^и шишЬипър]ши цшршр^ Ь ЬЦшипъшиЬр^ дпъ-дши^2иЬр Ь ш]^и:
ЧшрЬпр Ь ишЬ ршцшршЦши qшр-
qшдпLUUЬр^ Ь цршид hUшрш^пр hЬшЬшUp-иЬр^ qUшhшшпLUр: ЪЬрршцшршЦши рш-^пъииЬрр Ь ^шр^шЬп!р]пъир шии^-
^шЦшипрЬи шqqпLU Ьи ф^ишиишЦши 2п^-Цш]^ ^рш: И]ицЬи, 2018р. ши^ииЬр^и ^^ ф^ишиишЦши 2п^Цш]пъи иЦшш^Ьд^и ш^ши^иЬр^ шршшhпup^, Цпр-цпршш^^ цшршшшпииЬр^ 2п^Цш]пъи цшр-шшшпииЬр^ иЬЬ Ьш^ш^иЬрп^ ^ш^шпр^ ^Ьц-рЬр: И]ицЬи, ЬрЬ 2018р. ишрш^ ^Ьр^и 22 шпЬшрш]^и ршиЦЬр^ Цп^и^д nЬq^qЬUm Ь п^ nЬq^qЬUш ф^q^ЦшЦшU Ь ^рш^шршишЦши шиЛ.шид^д UЬрqрш^^шЬ ш^ши^иЬр^ Ьш^шщ ЦшqUпLU Ьр 2,64 шр^и црши, шцш ри^шиЬир иЬЦ ши^и шид ^Ьр^^и, 2,54 шр^и
црши, Цши 100 ^ршип^ (3,9%-пф цшЦши8: 2шишииши и^шпъииЬр qршUд^Ьд^U ишЬ Цпрцпршш^^ цшршшшпииЬр^ 2п^Цш-]пъи, пршЬц иЦшш^пъи Ь^и ф^q^ЦшЦшU ши-^ишид Цп^и^д ^п^шрш]^и цшршшшпииЬр^ ^ш^шпр^ ^^иш ршр^р ишЦшр^шЦ: ЪрЬ 2018р. ишрш шиипъи ^п^шрш]^и Цпрцпрш-т^ цшршшшпииЬр^ шппъ^ш^шпр^ Ьш^ш^-
иЬрр ЦшqUЬl_ Ьи ипш 1,1 и^и ИЦЪ ^п^шр,
шцш шцр^^ шиипъи 2,7 и^и ИЦЪ ^п^шр^д 2018р. ипр Цшпш^шрпър]ши Цп^и^д ри^пъи^пц пL2шqрш^ прп2пъииЬр^д Ьр рши-ЦЬр^ Цпци^д ришЦ^пър]ши ^шрЦЬр^ шпъ]д-шпLqшUpUЬр^, ^шрЦшфи шпЦпииЬр^ иЬр-иши иш^ш^Ьпипър]пъир: О-прЬриршд^ шр^-]пъирпъи 2019р. фЬшр^шр^ ^Ьр^ ^рпър]шир 2пър2 19 hшq. ф^^ЦшЦши шиЛ.^ ишип^ иЬр^Ь^ Ьи ш^Ьф рши 9.5 и^р^ ^рши^ ¿шфп^ цшршш^прп!р]пъииЬр10: иЬр ЦшрЬ^рп^ ииши и^пдшппШиЬрр Цшрпц Ьи ЬрЦшЦ^ шqqЬдпLр]пLU пг.иЬишр и^ Цп^и^д шиш]^и шишЬип!р]пъииЬр^ цшртршфи рЬп^ иЬциш-дпъир ЦhшUqЬдU^ ри^шипър ф^ишиишЦши hшUшЦшрq^ Цш]пъипър]ши ршрЛршдишир, и]пъи Цп^и^д hЬшшqш]пLU Цшрпц Ь иЦшт^Ь]_
8
https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/statmonetaryfinancial.aspx
https://amx.am/am/9/trading/12/market-data?markets=2&dp=2&y=2018&m=4
10 https://www.uba.am/uba/news/bank_credits.html
mUmj ^U mUmhuntpj niUUhp^ impimj ^U qmp-mminpnip] niUUhp^ immmpfmU qmrn2m^ imppmqb^ pniLmgnif hmUqhgUhini ¿m2^m-mnq imp^hp^ m^U U pmgmumpmp mUqpm-qmnUmLni ^^UmUum^mU imj ntUnipj mU ipm:
CUqhmUnip mnfmfp ZZ ^^UmUum^mU 2ni-imU qqmj niU t pmqmpm^mU f^gmimj p^ gUgnifUhp^U: £mqmpmimU opm^mpq^g pfcnq ihpp pUUmpiimb mj u U mj l ^pmqmpAmpj niU-Uhpp U hUmpminp n^u^hpp impnq hU tm^mU mqqhgnipj niU niUhUmL ^^UmUum^mU hmfm-impq^ pUm^mUnU qnpbntUhnLpj mU ipm, niu-m^ ^^UmUum^mU hmfm^mpq^ imj ntUnipj mU qUmhmmfmU dmfmUmi qpmUp qhmp t mnmU&Umi^ ihpLnibnLp] mU hUpmpiihU:
i^UmUum^mU hmfm^mpq^ imj ntUnipj mU qUmhmmfmU dmfmUmi ihpLnibnLp] mU mnmpim t UmU mU2mpd qnij p^ 2niimU, np-mhq fhp impb^pni ni^mqpntpj mU mpdmU^ hU hhmUj mL gntgmU^Uhpp mU2mpd qnij p^ mnniim^mnp^ qnpbmppUhp^ pmUm^p, pUm-^mpmUUhp^ f^g^U qUhpp, pmU^hpnif im-^mnp^ hmfmp qmhinq U qpmi hmfmpinq mU2mpd qnij p^ bmimiUhpp, mU2mpd qnij p^ 2ntimj ^ imp^minpfmU bmimiUhpp:
ZZ ^^UmUum^mU imj niUnipj mU qUmhmmfmU hmgnpq pmqmqp^p ^^UmUum^mU 2ni-imUhp^ imj niUnipj mU qUmhmmnifU t, npp pUqqpinif t ^nq^ U imq^mmi^ 2niimUhpp U mpdnipmj ^U 2nL^mU: Uj umhq ihpLnibini.f hU f^gpmU^mj ^U nhqn qnpbmnUnipj niUUhp^ bmimiUhp^ U qpmUg mninumqpntj pUhp^ q^-Umf^^mU, qhrnm^mU qmpmmmnfuhp^ h^m-fmmphpntpj niUp, ^UqhpuUhp^ pUntpmqp^ gntgmU^Uhpp, Uhpqpnifmj ^U bmnmj nipj niU-Uhp fmmnignq mUAmUg inqf^g ^pm^mUmg-imb ^U^qhu pnpumj m^mU, mj Uqhu tL mpmm-pnpumj m^mU mpdhpqphp^ mnniim^mnp^ qnpbmnUnipj niUUhpp: Updnipmj ^U 2niimU ihpLnibhL^u qUmhmminif t h^fUm^mU mp-dnij pUhp^ mmmmUnifUhpp qnLmp, hipn, nnipL^, mpdnipmj ^U 2niimj ^ 2pgmUmnnipj mU bmimLUhpp, qUmhmminif hU ^pm^mU U mU-imUm^mU mpqj niUmihm ^n^mpdhpUhpp:
i^UmUum^mU imj niUnipj mU qUmhmmfmU ^nppnpq pmqmqp^p ^^UmUum^mU hmu-mmmntpj niUUhp^ imj niUnipj niUU t: frnupp qUnif t hmmimqhu pmU^hp^ fmu^U, pmU^ np ihpg^UUhpu ZZ ^^UmUum^mU 2nL^mj nif
Lnipg i2^n niUhU ^^UmUum^mU hmfm^mpq^ hmfm^mnU mim^iUhp^ 85,5%-p11: i^UmU-um^mU imj ntUnipj mU mj u pmqmqp^ntf qUm-hmminif hU pmU^mj ^U hmfm^mpq^ imp^m-j ^U, ^pmgihL^nip] mU U 2ntimj m^mU mpsmp-dnipmj ^U, mninumqpnij p^, qUmj ^U n^u^hpp: ^nU^phm n^u^hp^ qbni f2miinif U qUm-hmminif hU upphu-ughUmpUhp, qUmhmm-inif t imq^mmL^ hmfmpdhpnipj mU U h^m-frnmphpnipj mU gnigmU^2Uhpp: Pmg^ pmU^h-p^g q^mmpiinif hU UmU ^^UmUum^mU 2ni-imj ^ fj niu fmuUm^^gUhpp imp^mj ^U ^mq-fmihpqntp] niUUhpp, mpdhpqphp^ 2niimj ^ fmuUm^^gUhpp, ihUumpn2mimj ^U ^nUqhpp U mqmhnimqpmimU pU^hpnipj niUUhpp:
ZZ ^hUmpnUm^mU pmU^p hpmqmpminif t ZZ ^^UmUum^mU hmfm^mpq^ ^mj ntUnip-j niUp pUnipmqpnq j np h^fUm^mU gnigmU^2-Uhp (mj u gnigmU^2Uhpp hpmqmpminif t UmU Updnij p^ f^gmqqmj ^U h^fUmqpmfp" Financial Soundness Indicators)12.
1. Lnpfmm^imj ^U pUqhmUnip ^mq^-mmi^ hmpmphpnipj niUp n^u^ni ^2nimb m^-m^iUhp^U
2. Lnpfmm^imj ^U h^fUm^mU ^mq^rnm-L^ hmpmphpnipj niUp n^u^ni ^2nimb mim^i-Uhp^U
3. 3m2^mmnq imp^hp^ hmpmphpnipj ni-Up pUqhmUnip imp^hp^U
4. CmhnLpmphpnLp] niUU pum m^m^iUh-
p^
5. CmhnLpmphpnLp] niUU pum imq^mmi^
6. PmpA.p ^pmgihi^ mim^iUhp^ hmpm-phpnipj niUU pUqhmUnip mim^iUhp^U
7. PmpA.p ^pmgihi^ mim^iUhp^ hmpm-phpnipj niUp gqmhmUg qmprnminpnipj niU-Uhp^U:
Uhp q^mmpifmfp, U2imb n^ pninp gnigm-U^2UhpU hU mpqj niUmihm fmmUmU2nif UmUumimU hmfmimpq^ imj ntUnipj mU ^pU-q^pUhpp U hUmpminp gUgnifUhpp: Op^Umi «Unpfmm^imj ^U pUqhmUnip imq^mmi^ hm-pmphpnipj niUp n^uini i2nimb mim^iUhp^U» U «PmpA.p ^pmgihi^ mim^iUhp^ hmpmphpni-pj niUU pUqhmUnip mim^iUhp^U» gntgmUfy?-
ZZ ^P, i^UmUumimU imj niUnipj mU hmgibminip] niU, 2017p., tL. hqnif"
https://www.cba.am/AM/pperiodicals/fin_stab_18.pdf , tg 28
12 http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61404590
ühpp ^^ü шшшшüпLIühp ¿hü шpÀ.шüшqphL
ZZ шüшhuпLpJшü hшIшp áqüшdшIшJpü ^п-2пp hplm. ppшlp^шlühpпLI 2008-2009pp. ZшIш2fcшphшJpü фpüшüuшшüшhuшlшü áqüшdшIp U 2014p. lhpgpü-2015p. ulqppü шpdпLpшJpü áqüшdшIp dшIшüшlшhшшlш-
cíàшщшшlhp 1. «ЬnpIшшplшJphphI}hшhm.p lшщpшшp hшpшphpmpJmhp npu^l Ц2п1шЬ шlшplhhpph C4/Í14U» U «PшpÀp ppшglhp шlшplhhpp hшpшphpnLpJnLhh рЬ^шипщ шlшplhhpph PPU/CU» gnLgшhp2hhpp ^Ьш^ШЬ ZZ фpЬшЬuшlшЬ hшlшlшpqnLl2006-2019p.13
2.0 0.0
iriiril/l^tOtO^'û^l^r^.i^MMccWœ HHrlHHHHHHHrlHHHHHH OOO^OOCJOOOOOOOOOO
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Яróшщшшlhp 2. 2ш21ишшпц 1шplhpp шhuшlшpшp l2np IpЬшIplшh 2015-2019pp.14
fàhU pшpÀ.p ppшglhLp шlшplühpp hшpш-phpпLpJПLÜü püi^ü^p шlшplühppü дпгдш-üp2P 2009p. пpп2шlp t шpÀ.шüшqphL, цш pü^Ihüp IшшüшÜ2ПLI t, rnp áqüшdшIшJpü ppшlp^шlp lшü^шqqшLпl фpüшüuшlшü ^^^pqp Iшuüшlpgühpp ^p^l ш^-jmgph^ hü pphüg pшpÀ.p ppшglh^p шlшplüh-pp &ш1ш]_р ppшglh^pпLpJшü ^üippühp ¿пъ-ühüшLПL ш^Цш^рп^ 2015p. Uu ШJu дп1дш-
https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/finstabilitycucanish.aspx
https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/finstabilitycucanish.aspx
üp2P пpп2шlpпphü t 2014p. шшphlhp2-Jшü güg^^g hhшп pшpÀ.p ppшдlhLp шlшpl-ühpp hü: ZhшUшpшp ühplшJшдlш& дп1-дшüp2ühpp püi^ürntp шnIшIp пpUt ^ü-Juuiuihunufuijliti ti2uitiuiljni_pjnüi yiüihti:
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cíbшщшшlhp 3. ZZpшЬlшJpЬ hшIшlшpqp 2шhnLpшphpnLpJnLhh рыш lшщpшшp 2015-2019p. фhшplшp
Эш2^шшпц ^p^p-püi^ü^p ^plhp hшpшphpшlдпLpJПLÜp Uu ш^ ^шпШ rn.üp IpШJÜ 2016p.' ^uü^rnl 10,5%-p, Ipü^hn prn.ü áqüшdшIшJpü ^^шЦпШ 2015p. ulqppü ШJÜ 9%-pg дш^ tp: иш Ü2ШüшlпLI t, пp 2014p. шшphlhp2JШü шpdпLpшJpü güg^Ip
ZШJШUШШÜПLI ¿ш2^шшпц ^plhpp ш^ ^ш шÜIpшIшpA.hL t IpШJÜ пpп2шlp dшIшüшl шüд, hhшUшpшp phU ¿ш2^шшпц ^plhpp l2pnP püпLpшqpпLI t шüшhuпLpJшü Ihg Цш-шшplпq фpüшüuшlшü ^jrn.ümp^ü qrnp-&püpшдühpp, ШJÜпLшIhüшJÜpl, Ipшüдпl hüшpшlпp ¿t oщhpшшpl шl]ШLÜhp uшшüшL qшpqшдпq áqüшdшIp Iшupü U àhnüшplhL шühpшdh2Ш Ip2пдшnпLIühp:
UJU ШПП11П1 hшIhIшшшpшp пL2ШIpпL-p^ü шpdшüp дпLдшüp2 t ZZ фpüшüuшlшü hшIшlшpqp шIuhlшü 2шhпLpшphpпLpJшü дпLдшüp2Ühpp:
bü^ihu шhuüпLI hüp, 2015p. hпLÜlшppд uluш& ZZ фpüшüuшlшü hшIшlшpqp 2шЬп1-
pшphpпLpJПLÜp puш lшщpшшlp pшдшuшlшü t hqh]_, pul шüшhuпLpJшü lшJПLÜшдIшüp
qпLqшhhn pшphl_шllhl_ t: Uhp lшpЬppпl ZZ
шüшhuпLpJшü lшpUпpшqпLJÜ дпLдшüp2Ühppд Ihlp, пp hm^t! t qш^pp ^qüшdшIp Iшupü U müp lшü^шшhuпLIшJpü Ihb шpdhp, 1ш шpшhplppд uшшдlпq шpшüuфhpшühpp дп1-дшüp2ü t: Яшüü ШJÜ t, rnp шpшhplppд uшшд-1пц шpшüuфhpшühpp &ш1шфд t IhЬшщhu
lm^imb ZZ mfpnqgmlmU u^mnnqmlmU imhmUgmplp fhbnLpj ni.Up, ntump qpmUg lp^mmntfp mUntqqmlpnphU hmUqhgUntf t uiüuihuiuljiuli ip^uilp i|uiuipuipuigifuiti:
1600.0 1 450.2 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0
800.0 600.0 400.0 200,0
2013p 2014p 2015p 2016p 2017p 2018p
Qömiymwljhp 4. ZZpmUlhpp ifppngnil ^>pqpljmljmh mhÄmhg mhmlinil mpmhplphhppg qmm mfuhlmU ipnpimhgnLfhhpp hhphnupp, f[b UULqnimp15
Uj uihu, hph 2013p. mpshplppg ZZ-U ummgh]_ tp 1 fipq 450 f^U qn^mpp spmUu-^hprnUhp, mim 2014p. hhUg mnmgpU mfpu-Uhppg mj U uluhg mUlntf m^ph. 2014p. pU-pmgpntf Uimqh^ni 15,8%-ni lmU^mmhuh-Lni hUmpminp ^pUmUumlmU gUgntfUhpp (qbmimmlhp 4): Upq ntUpntf 2014p. smph-ihpgpU Zmj musmUp hmj sUihg mpdntpmj pU ^qUmdmfp fhg:
JpUmUumlmU lmj niUntpj mU qUmhmmfmU ihpgpU pmqmqpp^p ^pUmUumlmU hU-pmlmnntgimbpUhpp lmj ntUntpj mU qUmhm-sntfU t: Zmj musmUntf mj q hUpmlmnntg-im&pUhpU hU ZZ 4P t^hlmpnUmj pU i^mpntf-Uhpp hmfmlmpqp, mpdhpqphpp hm2imp-lmj pU hmfmlmpqhpp, implmj pU nhqpuspp U UßftU implmj pU pj ntpnU: JpUmUumlmU lm-j ntUntpj mU qUmhmmfmU hmfmp ihpinL&inLf hU t^hlmpnUmj pU i^mpntfUhpp hmfmlmpqp implmj pU, ppmgih|pntpj mU npulhpp, i^m-pntfUhpp dmfmj pU pm2^im&nLpj ntUp, hmfmlmpqp pnqntUmlntpj ntUp U hmfmlmpqp qnpbmnUmlmU hmumUhjpntpj ntUp: ihpLntb-intf hU ZZ hplnt mpdhpqphpp hm2implmj pU hmfmlmpqhpp ZZ 4hUspnUmlmU qh^nqp-smppmj p Updhpqphpp hm2imnfmU U hm2-implmj pU fpmuUmlmU hmfmlmpqp U 4hUspnUmlmU pmUlp ^hsmlmU mpdhpqphpp hm2imnfmU U hm2implUhpp ppmlmUmg-fmU hmfmlmpqp hpfUmlmU pUntpmqpp^Uh-
' https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/statexternalsector. aspx
pp, fmuUminpmihu pnpumj mlmU U mpsm-pnpumj mlmU qnp&mppUhpp bmim^p U pmUm-lp, mj q hmfmlmpqhpp m2^msmUpp ipm mqqhgntpj ntU ntUhgnq ^mpmUntfUhpp, qpmUg pmUmlp U hm^m^mlmUntpj ntUp:
ßUUmplimb hpUq pmqmqpp^Uhpp hmUqm-fmUmjpg ihpLnL&nLpj mU U qUmhmmfmU mpq-j ntUpntf mpintf t ZZ ^pUmUumlmU lmj ntUnt-pj mU hmfmjpp qUmhmsmlmUp:
Uj uipuni, fhp lmpbppni, 4hUspnUm-lmU pmUlp lnqfpg npqhqpmb UfmU fnsh-gntfp U ^pUmUumlmU lmj niUntpj mU hUmpminp npulhpp qpmmplntfp hUmpminp pnjnp hmsim&Uhpntf ippi hpfUminpimb t: $p-UmUumlmU lmj ntUntpj mU npulhpp lmpnq hU p hmj s qmL pU^^hu tlqnqhU, mj U^hu tL tU-qnqhU fpgmimj pntf, ntusp qpmUg f2smqp-smplntfp U hmlmqqhgntpj mU fpgngmnntf-Uhpp f2mlntfp lmpUnp U2mUmlntpj ntU ntUp ^pUmUumlmU hmfmlmpqp pUmlmUnU qnp-bntUhntpj ntUp mimhnihLnL hmfmp:
Oqwmqnpäiub qpmlmbntpjmh gmUl
1. ZZ 4P, ipUmUumlmU lmj nrUnrpj mU hm2itminLpj nrU 2017p., t2 28
2. ZZ ophUpp ZZ 4tUmpnUmlmU pmUlp fmupU, pUqnrUimb 30 hnrUpup 1996p., Znqimb5
3. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Financial Stability Report, November 2018
4. Bank of England, Financial stability report, November 2018, Issue N 44, 2
5. Bank of Canada, Financial system Review, June 2018, t2 20
6. European Central Bank, Financial Stability Report, November 2018, t£ 42
7. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about
8. http://www.centralbanksguide.com/european+central +bank/
9. https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/statmonetaryfinan cial.aspx
10. https://amx.am/am/9/trading/12/market-data?markets=2&dp=2&y=2018&m=4
11. https://www.uba.am/uba/news/bank_credits.html
12. https://www.cba.am/AM/pperiodicals/fin_stab_18.p df
13. http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61404590
14. https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/finstabilitycucani sh.aspx
15. https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/statexternalsector. aspx
CdaHa/^müäü^hi 128.06.2019 Pe^H3upoeaHa/0-pwfanutfhi f 30.06.2019 npuHxma/^faqnifatfhi f 03.07.2019
