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Lyudmila Maksakova,
D.Sc. (Economics),
Institute of Macroeconomic and
Social Studies of Goskomprognozstat of the Republic
of Uzbekistan (Tashkent)
APPRAISAL OF LABOR POTENTIAL OF
UZBEKISTAN IN TERMS OF MIGRATION
PERSPECTIVES
Uzbekistan is an active participant of international labor markets. According to studies, most migrants of the republic are employed within the limits of the CIS. The constant and rising demand for labor force in host countries, mainly in Russia, promotes this process thanks to the lack of language barriers, the entry regime without visas etc. At present the migration flows to Kazakhstan grow mainly to the construction industry and agriculture.
The scales of labor migration grow for the last years. The globalization of world processes strengthens openness of the countries and their integration in the world community. It is the cause of not only movement of natural resources, capital, financial and material resources but also of labor force. The accelerated formation of world labor markets is going on mainly by means of labor migration of the population. Under the contemporary conditions, labor migration becomes an integral part of the world labor market and world economy. In point of fact, labor migration with due account of its scales becomes at present a significant segment in labor market both in host and in home countries creating a specific segment of external employment of the population.
The world financial crisis had a rather great impact also on the labor migration of the population of Uzbekistan. In particular, the migration to Russia, as formerly and now the main migration partner
was reduced to some extent. It is proved, first, in 2008 - by the return of some labor migrants in time of the usual season of most active working activities, in 2009 - by a reduction of the whole number of labor migrants, second, by reduction of the amount of money transfer (for the first quarter of 2009, for instance by 37%). However, according to experts, the reduction of labor migration is a temporary phenomenon. According to Russian sources and appraisals of local experts, even under conditions of the world financial crisis the labor migration from Uzbekistan as a whole keeps its usual size.
For a long time there continued to exist the regime of the extended reproduction of the population and, accordingly, the rapid rise of labor resources. According to the Soviet methodology, Uzbekistan was considered to be a region with excessive labor power and was a significant source for the organized export and redistribution of labor force in the country. Actually, the annual increase in labor capacity was rather high (2-3%), which ensured the rapid rise of labor resources and at the same time created problems of job placement and ensuring employment of the population. To some extent such situation has existed up to the present time, since the main mass of labor resources was formed for the period of extended reproduction and rapid rise of the population. As a mater of fact, the increase of the amount of the republican labor resources was going on up to 2008 on the basis of high birth rate for the Soviet period.
On the boundary of centuries the size of labor resources was growing annually by 360-390 thousand people (3.0-3.1%). For these years, the demographic pressure on the labor market was felt particularly evident, which created some problems in ensuring employment of people under conditions of supply-demand of labor force. In spite of a rather high annual increase of jobs, the tension in labor market remains. The extension of the employment sphere takes
place mainly in the sphere of small business and individual entrepreneurship, which in other countries is characterized by inadequate stability of jobs probably creating a non-sustainable employment and a potential risk of unemployment.
According to the world practice, the admissible-critical level of unemployment is usually considered to be the size of 10% of economically active population (Economic security, 1998). According to the estimates (with methodology of ILO), the actual level of unemployment in Uzbekistan is appraised as 5.3-5% (by the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the population of Uzbekistan in 2007). It is lower than in most states on the territory of CIS. However, with due account of the rapid rise of labor resources and a vast mass of the youth annually fulfilling labor market, it is possible to consider as a rather high indication the current level of unemployment in Uzbekistan. The job placement problems, in particular, in small cities and rural districts create pre-conditions for the search of work outside permanent residence.
At the same time, a rather low level of work remuneration in some republican industries has a great impact on formation of labor migration flows. Thus, the high level of provision with work places and the potential threat of unemployment call for the intention of people to look for jobs and wages outside the borders of the republic.
The labor migration is of great significance for Uzbekistan. It diminishes the demographic pressure on the local labor markets particularly in densely populated regions and, as a mater of fact, is the alternative to unemployment. Thousands of people having left for other countries to get jobs to a certain measure alleviated the tension in labor market of Uzbekistan. The labor migration is also a significant source of currency coming to the country. According to the National Bank of Uzbekistan, the size of currency remittances to the republic is rising
constantly: from $ 225 million in 2002 to $ 3 billion in 2008. The money remittances of labor migrants have a significant share in the whole amount of currency transfers. According to the World Bank, the annual currency transfers of labor migrants of Uzbekistan in 2006 estimated almost $ 1 billion (World Economic.., 2006), in 2009, by experts view, these transfers exceeded $ 2 billion. Actually, the currency remittances of labor migrants are much greater than the sums fixed in the official sources, since in parallel with international and national financial systems and banking structures some informal channels are used for this sake. In aggregate, the money transfers of labor migrants ensure about 10% of the GNP of the republic.
At the same time, the excessive growth of labor migrations has negative consequences. The labor market of Uzbekistan as a result of external labor migration forfeits the most mobile and capable population. Despite the measures taken by the state for extension of organized export of labor force, a rather great part of emigrants from Uzbekistan in host countries are employed on an unorganized basis and lack the needed social protection either on the part of their state or of the host state.
The labor migrants, members of these flows, are used mainly by employers not according to their professions and special skills, losing their professional knowledge and qualification often irretrievably. It should be taken into account that the labor migration goes on against the background of the general migration outflow from the republic. As a whole, it creates problems related to the qualified workers, and these problems may aggravate in the perspective. The exit from the republic of a great number of mobile qualified workers engenders certain problems for the national labor market: the deficit of specialists, the provision the enterprises of the real sector and the sphere of services with qualified cadres. The negative social-demographic consequences
of labor migration are not less significant: deterioration of the participants' health, complication of family relations and inadequate attention to education of children.
As a whole, the external labor migration weakens the national labor market and to some extent contributes to worsening of the demographic situation in Uzbekistan.
The formation of quantity and structure of labor resources at present time is subject to a great impact of the essential reduction of birth rate, which occurred and subsequently increased for the 1990s and the beginning of the new century. As a result, for the period of 19912004 the general and the total coefficients of the birth rate reduced by 1.7-1.8 times. At the same time, the reduction of birth rate in rural districts with more than one half of labor resources was going on more rapidly than in cities.
The reduction of birth rate had for the republic rather significant positive social-demographic consequences. It promotes improvement of health of mother and child. The demographic pressure on the able-bodied population decreases. According to some estimates, for the period of independent development of the republic, taking into account 1000 able -bodied persons, the general demographic burden decreased from 1038 to 652 persons, i.e. by 383 persons of disabled ages, including the burden of children - from 878 to 530 persons, i.e. by 348 persons. The age structure of the population changed a lot: the proportion of able to work contingents rose from 49.1% in 1991 to 60.1% in 2009. Simultaneously, the proportion of children and teenagers aged up to 16 years reduced considerably from 43.1% in 1991 to 33.0% at the present time.
The demographic echo of the reduced birth rate will be felt in formation of the labor market in Uzbekistan for the nearest years. In 7-8 years, the growth of labor resources will become slower to a
rather great extent and the parameters of generations change will differ in the republic. If at present the ratio between the people, who are approaching to the able to work ages, makes 3.6: 1, while by the year of 2020 it may reduce to 1.7:1, which demonstrates the slowing of growth of the labor capacity. It inevitably has influence on the scale of labor migration. In the nearest future the republic will not have great reserves for export of labor force.
At the same time, a significant improvement of social-economic situation in the republic will promote the processes of external labor migration. As economic growth will accelerate the needs of economy will rise in attracting new masses of able to work population. As the world experience shows, the analogous with Uzbekistan changes in the age structure of the population open a kind of "demographic window" of economic chances. Given the lesser number of dependents comparing with the able to work people of certain age, the countries get a chance to make additional investments, which may contribute to the accelerated economic growth and to the rise of level of living of the population. In Uzbekistan the main pre-conditions of this process are as follows: acceleration of the economic growth, structural reforms in economy, improvement of investment climate; all these measures bring results in case of a significant reduction of the tempos of the population growth. For the last years economic development of the republic took the lead over the population growth; and the GNP, the size and per head indications of industrial production and agriculture grew by accelerated tempos. The going on positive processes of economic development will be accompanied by the rise of incomes of people, which shall objectively weaken the factors of labor migration.
Thus, the labor migration of the population from Uzbekistan may reduce significantly owing to the impact of economic and social-
demographic factors, including many factors with the prolonged influence. The contemporary rise of labor migration of the population of Uzbekistan seems to be a relatively temporary phenomenon conditioned by the specifics of transformation period. As an example, one may cite experience of Italy, Turkey and Kazakhstan, as well as other countries, which recently were active exporters of labor force to the international labor markets but further themselves became the host countries. Uzbekistan also may present an example of the change of the situation in the labor market; and rather significant pre-conditions exist for this phenomenon.
Lately, the scientific literature is marked by citing of the notion "population's economy". Probably, it is expedient to put into the scientific circulation also the term "labor economy", which may be urgent not only for the countries with the lack of labor resources but also for the countries marked by rapid rise of labor resources. Under conditions of growth of size of labor migration, it is significant to keep the national labor capacity in terms of quantity and quality. The achievement of more efficient international cooperation may promote realization of these aims. It is necessary to extend organizational-legal cooperation of Uzbekistan with Russia and other countries. At the present stage, both home and host countries should work out the strategies of changing the job placement of citizens abroad for the civilization process. They may be based on perfection of the legislative-legal basis and may foresee elaboration of new approaches to the organized labor migration.
"Migratsionny most mezhdu Tsentralnoi Aziey i Rossiey: Rol migrantov v modernizatsii, innovatsionnom razvitii ekonomiki stran, posylayushchikh i prinimayushchikh migrantov", M., 2011, pp. 337-341
