CC BY
20
years, the heads of state met seven times, more than 80 meetings were held and more than 40 documents were signed. Two meetings of intergovernmental commissions took place.
Thus, the researcher concludes, prerequisites have been created for the further successful and mutually beneficial development of bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Iran.
Author of the abstract - Elena Dmitrieva
2018.03.007. LYUDMILA MAKSAKOVA. DEMOGRAPHIC AND MIGRATION POTENTIAL OF UZBEKISTAN / /
"Narodonaselenie," Moscow, 2016, № 1, P. 82-89.
Keywords: reproduction of the population, independent development of the population, "reasonable fertility," reproductive level, age structure, labor potential, gross external migration, labor migration, national staff.
Lyudmila Maksakova,
Dr.Sc. (Economics),
Institute of Economics, the Academy of Sciences, Uzbekistan
Moderately expanded reproduction of the population is typical for modern Uzbekistan, which provides a new dynamics of growth in its number and age structure, the author notes. According to the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the population of the republic increased by 10,4 million people (by 50,5%) for years of independent development, and amounted to 31,025 thousand people at the beginning of 2015. In recent years, the average annual growth rate was within 1,5-1,7% against 3,0-3,5% in the 1970s and 2,2-2,3% in the early 1990s, which indicates a slowdown in population growth.
Uzbekistan passed the stage of high birth rate. Reproductive processes occur according to universal laws, with a general movement from high to low fertility and mortality. At the same time, the number of births is 4,0-4,2 times more than the number
of deaths annually, which indicates a powerful demographic potential of the republic. There are positive changes in the birth rate. Fertility is increasingly regulated within the family. The state pursues a policy of strengthening family relations, improving the health of the mother and the younger generation with a focus on "reasonable fertility." Gradually, the reproductive attitudes of the population to the average family were formed. Based on the results of socio-demographic surveys, it can be assumed that the current reproductive level is approaching the optimal and desirable parameters for the population.
New trends in the reproduction of the population have a favorable qualitative impact on its age structure. This is especially noticeable in the dynamics of the ratio of the population of the main age groups. The share of able-bodied contingents in the total number of inhabitants increased (from 49,1% in 1991 to 61,7% in modern times), while the share of children and adolescents under 16 declined accordingly, from 43,1 to 30,2%. As the world experience shows, the decline in fertility is inevitably accompanied by demographic aging with the corresponding negative social and demographic consequences. Uzbekistan could not avoid it either. At the same time, aging processes are almost imperceptible in Uzbekistan. The proportion of the population 65 years and over barely exceeds 5%. The population of Uzbekistan is young by international classification for this indicator. The average age of residents is 25-26 years, although there has been some "aging from below" age pyramid. In general, the modern age structure of the population of Uzbekistan and its dynamics indicate potential opportunities for a favorable development of the demographic situation.
Changes in reproduction processes and in the age structure of the population have not only demographic but also economic consequences that directly affect the quality of life. First of all, they ensured an absolute and relative increase in labor potential, which is a prerequisite for accelerating economic growth. The economic development of the republic in the last decade is much faster than
population growth (8,5 and 1,6%, respectively). The improvement of the demographic situation directly affects the qualitative aspects of population development. There is a reduction in the demographic burden on the able-bodied population. According to calculations, it has decreased from 1,036 to 620 people per thousand people of working age, i.e. in 1,7 times for 1991-2013.
The existing regime of reproduction of the population testifies to a sufficiently high qualitative development of the country. Population growth rates were optimized. The expected life expectancy increased from 69,2 years in 1990 to 73,1 years in 2013, incl. 70,7 years for men and 75,5 years for women. The death rate and life expectancy in the world are one of the main criteria for demographic security. However, there are a number of problems in the country with undoubted positive changes. A part of the population lives in ecologically unfavorable conditions. First of all, this refers to the lower reaches of the Amu-Darya with a population of more than 3 million people, where external factors affect the state of health. It will take a lot of effort to improve the demographic situation.
There have been significant changes in the migration of the population of Uzbekistan in the process of creating an independent state and market reform of the economy, caused by socio-economic and political transformations. A complex interweaving of various factors led to quantitative and qualitative changes in the migration situation. The most significant trend is a reduction in the gross volume of external migration, both in immigration and in emigration flows. Moreover, the gap between them increases, mainly due to a decrease in the intensity of arrival. The number of people, who left for permanent residence from Uzbekistan for the post-Soviet period, decreased by 3 times and the number of those, who moved in - 10 times. The decrease in the migration outflow of the population is a positive trend for Uzbekistan. The republic loses a lot of its qualified personnel as a result of external migrations, as the proportion of educated, professionally trained population is 1215 points higher among emigrants than immigrants.
Currently, the orbit of migration links of the population of Uzbekistan has expanded, including European and overseas countries. However, external migration links with far-abroad countries make up only about 2% of the total. Russia and Kazakhstan are the most preferred countries of destination. At the same time, Russia's role is declining, there is a reorientation of emigration to Kazakhstan, which accounts for about half of all those who left the republic in recent years. Basically, such dynamics are due to the territorial closeness and similarity of the mentality of peoples. The non-indigenous population is more involved in external migration processes. The share of the titular population is relatively small (about 10%), Uzbekistan loses some of its titular population in external migrations, as its emigration flows are slightly higher than immigration flows. Basically, these are young and well-educated people. Preferred countries of arrival are the United States, Germany, Belgium, England, the United Arab Emirates, as well as Russia. The current migration situation in Uzbekistan is relatively stable.
Labor migration is of great importance for both sending and receiving countries. It reduces demographic pressure on local labor markets and creates economic effects in the form of remittances in sending countries, including Uzbekistan. It provides labor force, creates a large part of the gross product in the recipient countries, contributing to economic capacity-building. According to various estimates by Russian specialists, labor migrants create from 5 to 8% of Russia's GDP. At present, labor migration is quite large in Uzbekistan, it is fueled by both demographic and economic factors. Most labor migrants carry out their labor activities within the CIS. The main migration partners are Russia and Kazakhstan. According to the survey data, migrants from Uzbekistan work mainly in transport, construction, agriculture, trade, industrial enterprises, carry out housing and communal services, and do business.
For a long time the majority of labor migrants in Uzbekistan had an unstable, mostly illegal status in Russia and other CIS
countries. In recent years both sending and receiving countries have taken steps to regulate migration processes. As a result, the share of legal labor migrants from Uzbekistan, officially authorized to work in host countries, has significantly increased. Measures have been taken to streamline the processes of labor migration in Uzbekistan. The policy of the republic in this sphere is aimed at curbing the growth of the scale of labor migration, strengthening the social protection of citizens working outside the republic, as well as ensuring state control over migration processes.
Modern trends create quite real prerequisites for the development of external migration links of the republic's population. Uzbekistan actively joins the international community, expanding its economic and business partnership with various states. In the future, the dynamics of migration processes, on the one hand, will be influenced by modern changes in the geopolitical situation, on the other - the formation of migration behavior and migration intentions of the titular population. Currently, there are factors in the country that promote the development of migration processes and expand the participation of the titular population. Uzbekistan joins the world economy, enters the world markets. National cadres are attracted to enterprises with complex production, to foreign firms located on the territory of the republic, with modern forms of professional development and professional training of personnel, are internships abroad through joint ventures. The number of young people who speak foreign languages is increasing.
The current migratory flows will determine the potential labor migration in the coming years. Traditionally, Russia will remain a priority. It is estimated that the number of labor migrants from Uzbekistan to Russia can be halved in the next 10-15 years, due to unskilled labor mainly. According to the researcher, Russia will be attractive for business sectors of Uzbekistan along with Western countries. As a result, we can expect a higher qualitative composition of labor migrants to Russia with a decrease in their
number, since the entrepreneurial stratum of labor migration is distinguished by a higher educational and qualification level.
Author of the abstract - Elena Dmitrieva
ELENA DMITRIEVA. WATER CONSUMPTION IN CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES IN POST-SOVIET PERIOD: CONFLICT OF INTERESTS // The article was written for the bulletin "Russia and the Moslem World."
Keywords: water resources, water consumption, conflict of interests, irrigation, Central Asian region, post-Soviet area.
Elena Dmitrieva,
Senior Research Associate,
Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences, RAS
Abstract. This article is a review of certain problems of water consumption in Central Asia. Special attention is devoted to the problems of access to water resources of the region and their distribution between its countries in the post-Soviet period.
Central Asia is a region very rich in water due to its natural and geographical features. Despite this the water problem has not only remained unresolved after the disintegration of the U.S.S.R., but, on the contrary, it has become exacerbated and touched all five countries of the region: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
At present these Central Asian states are characterized by a high birth rate, high poverty level, and drastic need for resources to develop their economies. The water resources in Central Asia are mainly used for agricultural purposes, hydropower generation, and for industrial needs, and are the main factor influencing economic and political stability in the countries of the region.
One of the specific features of water consumption in the region is the fact that the formation of water resourced takes place
