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the direct involvement of the Islamic State has not been proved yet. At the same time, the intensification of the bombing is not able to cope with the radical ideology of the terrorists. Based on a retrospective analysis of the recent anti-terrorist operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, etc., the leaving of the militants to underground is the maximum that can be achieved, while maintaining all the possibilities for them to carry out terrorist activities. Accordingly, the risk of a terrorist threat directly on Russian territory in both short term and medium one, will remain at a high level, and the prospects for a decent completion of the military operation - rather vague, in conjunction with the inevitable deterioration of the image of Russia in the eyes of the wider Islamic world. It seems that the final withdrawal of Russia from Syria will be very similar on the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, the only significant difference is that there is no ground forces of our country in this area, in this case.
2016.09.004. E. SATANOVSKIY. BETWEEN CRISIS AND CATASTROPHE. THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD // "Rossiya v globalnoy politike", Moscow, 2015, Volume 13, № 6, November/December, P. 38-49.
Keywords: redistribution of territories, the main actors, the balance of forces, the modern world order, war of civilizations, area of instability.
E. Satanovskiy,
president of the Middle East Institute
The author analyzes the current situation and potential prospects of development of the Middle East (ME) and its periphery: the African and the European, Central Asian and the Transcaucasus.
At the beginning of the article the author delves into the history of the redistribution of territories, the Middle East,
according to the Russian-British agreement of 1907, the fate of the Ottoman Porte after the Sykes-Picot agreement, and that the U.S. role in the Middle East was unimportant, the main actors were Britain and France. During the 20th century, the world has been rapidly changed. The Soviet Union appeared instead of the Russian Empire,in the 20th century colonial British and French empires collapsed, The Soviet Union collapsed in the late 20th century. The author believes that the world is moving to the balance of forces, which was typical of the 17-18 centuries, but with clear geopolitical amended.
The author characterizes the modern world order, assuming that positions of the West become weak, while the position of the East and the South, are enhanced. Russia is balancing between them. China, India, Turkey and Iran are now returning to their original positions in the international arena, but Japan and South Korea have returned much earlier in the club of the economic elite.
Latin American states, the U.S., Canada and Australia -occupy their niche in the world system. The United States New actors is trying to maintain a monopoly on the status of the global hegemon, engaging in a local war after another, and losing once again, leave, leaving behind chaos.
According to the author, there is a war of civilizations, there is no final victory of liberal western democracy and it is not expected. Globalization does not promise anything good for Europe: millions of migrants from Africa and the Middle East are already living in the EU countries, tens of millions are ready to move closer to the European social benefits. They do not intend to assimilate, but are eager to bend the Old World under their standards. Europe has no shortage or in right-wing radicals of all kinds, or in Islamists, becoming a field for radicals confrontations. The author believes that the ratio of indigenous and "alien" population of the EU will change fundamentally by 2050 if migration rates will remain the same.
The author expresses the opinion, based on the historical experience of Russia, that shocks will expect the country in the
30s, or maximum in the 40s years of the current century. However, the article is not about Russia, but of the current situation and potential prospects of the development of the Middle East (ME) and its periphery: Africa and Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus. Everything in the world is connected and the connection appears faster than in the past.
Turkey pursued multiple objectives in a European refugee crisis, that has been provoked by it: partially relieve Turkey of more than three million of refugees residing on its territory; Erdogan sought to get money from Brussels, putting pressure on the EU when shifting the problem of refugees on Europe; He tried to push the European members of NATO to strike at the troops of Bashar al-Assad. This situation shows how the Western world is vulnerable to the processes occurring in the Middle East.
The author notes that the "Arab Spring" has gone on recession in all countries of the region - Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, where authoritarian rulers were replaced, and not representatives of the liberal-democratic circles, but Islamists. The project of overthrowing B. Assad has every chance to fail with the support provided to him from Iran and actions of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Two military-political and economic alliances were formed in the region, Turkey - Qatar and Egypt -Saudi Arabia.
The author believes that the main problems of the Middle East today is this: a course that President Erdogan will choose after the victory of his party in the parliamentary elections, the prospects for the development of Afghanistan, as well as "the Central Asian Spring", further fate of the Islamist radical groups after the start of actions of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria.
The author analyzes the probability of collision between Russia and Turkey; Prospects for "Pipeline wars" in Central Asia, and the development of relations between the former Central Asian republics of the USSR and the countries of the Middle East, China, Russia and the US; The political and economic situation in the countries of Central Asia.
The author raised the issue of nuclear cooperation in the region and making the Middle East into a "nuclear-free zone, the cooperation of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, the confrontation between Pakistan and India, and keeping the nuclear balance. According to the author, the agreement of non-aggression between Israel and Iran could be the best way to ensure security in the region. However, Iran is clearly not ready to accept it in the foreseeable future, unlike Israel. The author noted the failure of the Israeli-Palestinian "peace settlement". Positions of the sides were totally and completely incompatible, although they were so initially. This catastrophic situation of refugees, including Arabic, can lead to the unification of programs to support them in the near future by the international community, depriving the Palestinians' status "first class among the refugees."
All of these countries and territories are another area of instability. The same can be said about the African periphery of the Middle East - the Sahara and the Sahel, their separatist and radical Islamist movements destabilize the area from Morocco to Mauritania, and a significant part of Black Africa. The only "good" news about the Middle East, is that the Balkans and the Caucasus is just an oasis of calm in comparison with the Sahel and the Af-Pak.
Dismantling of the Schengen area due to refugees traveling to Germany through the Balkans, can be the beginning of the end of the European Union. The Caucasus is affected by Turkey and Iran, as well as the confrontation between Washington and Brussels, on the one hand, and Moscow - on the other. According to the author, the situation today is quite stable, it could be worse, if we refer to issue of slavery in Iraq, Sudan, Mauritania and the genocide of Christians in Syria and Iraq, and the Kurdish Yazidi in Iraq. This is the difference between crisis and catastrophe.
The author of the abstract - N. Ginesina
