CC BY
8
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON LIVELIHOODS FOR THE POOR IN NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL REGION OF VIETNAM Nguyen Huu Cong1, Nguyen Nguyen Hong2, Nguyen Thi Le Thu3 Email: Nguyen17152@scientifictext.ru
'Nguyen Huu Cong - PhD, FACULTY OF POLITICAL THEORY, NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY;
2Nguyen Nguyen Hong - PhD, HO CHI MINH NATIONAL ACADEMY OF POLITICS; 3Nguyen Thi Le Thu - master, PhD student,
FACULTY OF POLITICAL THEORY, NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY HANOI, SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM
Abstract: climate change is one of the greatest challenge for the mankind in the 2'st century and has been causing dramatic changes through extreme climate phenomena, such as increased temperature, strong typhoons, heavy rains, floods, droughts and high rising sea level. In which, it is noticeable that climate changes have considerably impacted the national economy, affected the production and daily activities of people living in the areas, vulnerable areas, less-developed areas, especially for disadvantageous social groups and posed great challenges for the poverty reduction. The paper focuses on the following main contents: Identify and analyze the impacts of climate changes on the livelihoods of the poor in the North Central Coastal Region of Vietnam on the livelihoods of the poor there; Make conclusion and recommendation.
Keywords: climate change, Vietnam, social security, social - economic development, livelihood of the poor.
ВЛИЯНИЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ КЛИМАТА НА СРЕДСТВА СУЩЕСТВОВАНИЯ БЕДНЫХ В СЕВЕРО-ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОМ ПРИБРЕЖНОМ РЕГИОНЕ ВЬЕТНАМА Нгуен Хыу Конг1, Нгуен Нгуен Хонг2, Нгуен Тхи Ле Ты3
'Нгуен Хыу Конг - доктор философии, факультет политической теории, Национальный экономический университет; 2Нгуен Нгуен Хонг - доктор философии, Национальная Академия политики Хо Ши Мина; 3Нгуен Тхи Ле Ты - магистр, аспирант, факультет политологии, Национальный экономический университет, г. Ханой, Социалистическая Республика Вьетнам
Аннотация: изменение климата является одной из важнейших задач для человечества в 2'-м веке и вызывает резкие изменения в результате экстремальных климатических явлений, таких как повышение температуры, сильные тайфуны, проливные дожди, наводнения, засухи и высокий уровень моря. При этом заметно, что изменения климата значительно повлияли на национальную экономику, повлияли на производственную и повседневную деятельность людей, живущих в районах, уязвимых, менее развитых районах, особенно для неблагополучных социальных групп, и создали серьезные проблемы для сокращения масштабов нищеты. В статье основное внимание уделяется следующему основному содержанию: выявление и анализ воздействия изменений климата на источники существования бедных в северной части центрального прибрежного района Вьетнама на источники существования тамошних бедняков; выяснение заключения и рекомендация.
Ключевые слова: изменение климата, Вьетнам, социальное обеспечение, социально-экономическое развитие, средства к существованию бедных.
УДК 338.12
DOI: '0.24411/2304-2338-2020-'0707
Climate changes are changes in the climates during a long period [4]. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate changes are changes in the
climate that are directly or indirectly caused by human agents, which changes the composition of the atmosphere in addition to natural climate changes. Climate changes include observations and projections of regional or local increases or decreases in temperature, changes in the timing and amount of rainfall, and sea level rise. (ISPONRE, DONRE, WWF, 2013b), etc.
With complex geographical conditions, the North Central Coastal Region of Vietnam is one of the regions heavily affected by natural disasters. The reality has shown that this region has been being impacted by at least 9 forms of natural disasters and calamities caused by climate changes, including typhoons, floods (including flash floods), droughts, southwestern wind (Lao wind), landslides, cyclones, salt water intrusion, river bank erosion and cold spells.
The North Central Coast region of Vietnam is located in 6 provinces: Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri and Thua Thien Hue which have socio-economic difficulties and underdeveloped conditions; complex geographical conditions, terrains, and harsh climates. The lives of the people, especially the poor, are vulnerable to climate changes. However, the study of issues related to the impact of climate change hazards on the population in this region, especially for the livelihoods of the poor, has not received adequate attention from organizations and individuals. Therefore, the authors chose the topic "Impacts of climate changes on the livelihoods of the poor in North Central Coastal Region of Vietnam" as a research topic with the desire to provide more scientific bases and arguments for agencies to plan and implement policies to protect and create better livelihoods for the poor here in the context of increasingly severe climate changes.
The impacts of climate changes (risk level) function as an exposure to climate changes due to the risks posed and the sensitivity of the target asset or system to such exposure (ICEM).
Moss et al. (2001) identified ten representatives for five climate-sensitive areas, namely settlement sensitivity, food security, human health, ecosystems and water resources and seven representatives for three areas of coping and adaptive capacity, economic capacity, human resources and natural or environmental resources.
Dolan and Walker (2003) discussed adaptive capacity determinants, including access to and distribution of wealth, technology, information, perceptions and perspectives on social risks and capital, as well as important institutional frameworks to address the risks of climate changes.
Vulnerable factors
IUCN's report on "Indigenous peoples and climate change" in March 2008 determined that: Vulnerable factors of indigenous communities to climate changes are classified into two groups: socially vulnerable factors and biophysical vulnerable factors. The lack of sources of income, assets and money is one of the determinants of socio-economic vulnerability of indigenous people. The impacts of climate changes will exacerbate the poverty of the communities who mainly live based on a self-sufficient agriculture. On the other hand, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on poverty reduction efforts and create many challenges for the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
In addition, climate changes have indirect effects on the livelihoods of the poor: reducing crop yields in countries with low latitudes, food insecurity and malnutrition will affect the health of millions of people, and increase the mortality rate for births and children. The most vulnerable groups include rural people, especially those living in disadvantageous areas, cattle farmers, urban poor, refugees and migrants [1].
A research conducted by UNDP and Vietnam's Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in 2008 on climate changes has shown that climate change has potential impacts on different fields, regions and communities. It impacts three (i) economic sectors (including agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy, transportation, industry, construction and tourism) (ii) society (health) human health) and (iii) environment (including water resources, forest resources, marine resources, ecosystems and biodiversity and air quality). The areas which are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate changes are small islands, deltas of large rivers, coastal strips, and mountains, the impacts of climate changes are on everyone. However, the poor are the most vulnerable [2].
Project Report "Developing resilience: Adaptation strategies for coastal livelihoods which are most at risk due to the impacts of climate changes in Central Vietnam" [3] examine ways to restore livelihood systems in the Central Coastal Region of Vietnam, where are most likely impacted by climate changes. The report identifies measures to formulate adaptation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of coastal livelihoods and build resilience due to the impacts of climate change; building resilience to the social and ecological systems that depend on the impacts of climate changes and strengthen the capacity to deliver quality services of these systems.
The study by Le Ha Phuong "Assessing the impacts and vulnerability of climate changes to agriculture and aquaculture production in Quang Ninh district, Quang Binh province" (2014) assessing
the impact of catastrophic phenomena for production activities and the vulnerability of people's livelihoods in the context of climate changes and the complicated evolution of disasters, propose reasonable solutions and strategies to improve livelihoods for households in the face of increasingly complex developments in climate changes.
Perspectives on poverty and multidimensional poverty
Up to now, although there is no official definition, many poverty conceptions are now being recognized by countries, including two current poverty assessment perspectives: income poverty and multidimensional poverty.
World Summit on Social Development, held in 1995, introduces the definition of poverty: "The poor are all those who earn less than a dollar a day for each person, the money is considered enough to buy the products needed to survive."
Galbraith, an American economist, also thought: People are considered poor when their income, even though it is appropriate for them to survive and falls significantly below community income. Then they cannot have what most people in the community consider to be the minimum necessary to live properly.
These two concepts assess poverty based on income/expenditure.
A broader concept of poverty is launched by the Conference on Anti-Poverty in the Asia-Pacific Region (ESCAP) in Bangkok, Thailand in September 1993: "Poverty is a part of the population that does not enjoy and satisfy basic human needs, but these needs have been recognized by the society according to the level of socio-economic development and the customs and practices of the locality".
The research groups of UNDP, UNFPA and UNICEF in the project "Hunger eradication and poverty reduction in Vietnam -1995" has defined: "Poverty is the inability to participate in national life, especially in the economic field."
According to the United Nations (UN): "Poverty is the lack of minimum capacity to effectively participate in social activities. Poverty means not having enough food, enough clothing, no education, no medical care, no land to grow crops or no job to support themselves, or no access to credit. Poverty also means insecurity, no rights, and exclusion of individuals, households and communities. Poverty means being vulnerable to violence, having to live outside society or in risky conditions, without access to safe water and safe sanitation" (United Nations Declaration in June 2008 adopted by leaders of all UN organizations).
Thus, multidimensional poverty can be understood as the situation where people do not meet one or some basic needs in life.
For poor income: People at the poverty line are those who have total income equivalent to minimum expenditure.
For multidimensional poverty: The multidimensional deprivation threshold is the level of deprivation that if a household is deficient by more than this level is considered to lack basic needs.
Poverty line in Vietnam
In Vietnam, the poverty threshold is assessed through the poverty line, based on calculations by authorities such as the General Statistics Office or the Ministry of Labor, War Invalids and Social Affairs. The poverty line according to the General Statistics Office is determined based on the World Bank (WB) approach, including two levels:
Food poverty: total expenditure only calculated for the minimum nutritional food for one person is under 2100 kcal/day and night;
General poverty: total expenditure for the whole minimum consumer shopping cart is determined by estimating the ratio: 70% spent on food, 30% for the rest.
Livelihoods of the poor
Livelihood includes potentiality, (assets, stores, resources, land, roads, etc.) and needed activities to earn a living. A livelihood is considered sustainable when it unlocks the potential of people to realize their means of production and livelihood. Especially, a sustainable livelihood must be able to cope with and overcome pressures and unexpected changes (IMOLA project, 2006).
Livelihoods of the poor
The poor are considered to be the most vulnerable to the impacts of the external environment because they have few resources and conditions to maintain and adapt to livelihoods. Disaster risks and environmental changes directly affect the livelihoods of the poor, resulting in the possibility that the poor will lose their livelihoods or have to change their livelihoods when their resources are difficult to meet. When the livelihoods of the poor mainly depend on exploiting the available natural resources, so the climate change has a huge negative impacts on their livelihoods. Unusual climate changes caused by climate change are considered as one of the main causes that increase the vulnerability of the poor (IPCC). The poor live mainly on agriculture and are vulnerable to natural
disasters and climate changes. They lack cultivating land, have low other incomes, are unable to access basic services, and have little resources to recover from the impacts of natural disasters. According to Neefjes (2009), most poor people only know how to rely on natural resources for their livelihoods, such as agricultural production, fishing, etc.
Impacts of climate change and natural disasters on poor group's livelihoods
* Impacts on agricultural cultivation.
The results of the survey on households show that among the major natural disasters that greatly affect agricultural activities of households, storms, floods, heavy rains and droughts are the biggest risk. Salt water intrusion may cause impacts at low level, mainly reducing the yield. The phenomena such as sea level rise and flash floods have almost no impact or very little impact. The manifestations of the impacts of these phenomena are reduced yields, slow-growing plants, lack of irrigation water and high disease outbreaks.
However, phenomena such as: storms, thunderstorms, droughts, floods, and long-term heat have adversely affected the life and production of people living in the North Central Coast of Vietnam. The survey results show that up to 77.4% of respondents said extreme weather events affect their agricultural production with different levels of influence; 18.1% of respondents said that climate change affects non-agricultural production; 57.4% said that most of the public works for production such as dikes, canals and roads were affected by climate change, particularly damages caused by storms and floods. According to the assessment on production losses due to extreme weather events in the last 5 years, 42.2% of the respondents said that they suffered much damages and 38.8% suffered a lot of damages due to climate change in planting food crops, 7% of households were completely damaged.
Climate changes have strong impacts on agricultural cultivation, most obviously reducing the area of cultivating land, causing drought, lacking productive land, and putting great pressure on development. According to the survey, the number of households with damaged agricultural land was 66.6%, of which the number of households damaged due to lack of food crop land accounted for the majority (79%). At present, the risk of increasing drought caused by extreme weather events has led to a major reduction in yield of major crops by up to 10%, in which extreme weather events can cause complete crop failure.
* Impacts on husbandry
The survey results show that storms are the most influential phenomenon to husbandry activities of people in the research area. 60% of respondents said storms damaged the breeding facilities; over 40% thought that storms reduced productivity, in addition, storms are thought to make it harder to find food for husbandry. Heavy rains also negatively impacted on husbandry activities with 46.6% of the respondents saying that heavy rain made it difficult to find food sources and 35.5% of households said that they damaged their breeding facilities. Flood was also a cause of damages to husbandry activities, which swept away poultry and cattle. Among the causes of loss of breeding ages, floods accounted for the highest rate with 70.4% of the respondents. Moreover, prolonged drought was also the reason for slow growth of livestock, reduced productivity and increased diseases with the number of respondents agreeing of 80.6%, 60.6% and 53.4%, respectively.
* Impacts of extreme weather events on aquaculture
According to the survey results, the aquaculture of people in the North Central Coastal Region of Vietnam depends heavily on natural conditions. Climatic weather phenomena greatly affect the productivity and efficiency of aquaculture. Flood is noteworthy because this is a risk that can cause a loss of an entire aquaculture season. Up to 76% of the respondents had the same judgment; 46.6% of respondents thought that flooding reduced productivity; 33.3% - changed the water environment and 53.4% - increased disease. Heavy rains were also the main cause of loss of productivity and reduced productivity with 46.6% and 53.3% of respondents agreeing with this opinion. Moreover, drought makes aquaculture and seafood underdevelop, reducing productivity and further changing their water environment.
* Impacts of climate changes on fishery capturing
Fishery capturing activities are common in the North Central Coastal Region of Vietnam. Some rich households have big boats for offshore fishing, while others have small boats for traveling and scattered and small fishing along the coast. The majority of individuals and workers are employed as charterers for local or other ship owners.
According to the survey results, climate changes reduce the caught volume. 46.5% of respondents thought the cause of drought; 33.3% of respondents said that the cause was storms, the rest were caused by floods and heavy rains.
Storms not only caused such negative effects, but also risk the loss of fishing nets, even turning boats and cannot catch. In addition, 26.6% of respondents said that drought changed the fishing area, forcing the people to change their fishing range and find new fishing places with higher costs.
* Impacts of climate changes on medicine and health.
As reported by the Poverty Action Group (2005), poor health is one of the main causes of poverty. Our survey data in the study area shows that the health of members of poor households was significantly affected by abnormal weather events, with the affected rate of 80.7%. This is a matter of concern. The survey shows that the poor were the most vulnerable to health, followed by children, the elderly and women.
Impacts of natural disasters on health clinics: causing damages is 39.6% of the interviewed households said; one third of the interviewed households thought that the abnormal climate conditions caused damage to hospitals or health centers, mainly storms and floods, while other phenomena were almost absent.
* Impacts on the daily works of households
The research by the Poverty Action Group (2012) shown that the status of housing and living facilities of poor households in the North Central Coast Region: These buildings have been solidified at the average level compared to the whole country in terms of housing. The report also estimates that in this region, the poor who live in temporary houses accounted for only a very low proportion. Targeted local housing programs have been helping the poor improve their housing issues.
However, through our study, the quality of housing and living facilities of poor people in the north central coastal region is a concerning issue. Actual survey data shows that the impacts of natural disasters on houses and constructions of the poor is quite large: 86.6% of respondents considered natural disasters to be damaging, of which the level of damage was small (56.6%), the rest was much damage (44.4%).
* Impacts on social infrastructure works
The North Central Coastal Region of Vietnam is assessed to have relatively good basic infrastructure and people's access to these conditions is generally high. Most rural areas have convenient roads. 99% of households have access to the national electricity grid, and 70% of agricultural land is irrigated through an irrigation system (Poverty Action Group 2005,). It shows that the basic infrastructure to create livelihoods for residents including the poor is quite good, the living conditions of people in the north central coastal area in general and poor households in the area in particular, the impacts of abnormal climatic conditions will be partly reduced. Our survey results also show that the impact of natural disasters on social infrastructure works of this region is not too large. Damages are mainly reported on the road and power line systems but is less serious, which is the opinion of 70% of the respondents.
The magnitude and types of climate change impacts on the livelihoods of poor households in the north central coastal region of Vietnam.
According to our study, climate changes and natural disasters have different impacts depending on the field and type of impact, in which agriculture and livestock are most affected. As for aquaculture, the fishing activities are least affected. Floods, storms, heavy rains and droughts all have the same impact, while 3 phenomena of sea level rise, saline intrusion and flash flood have low impact levels. Among the natural disasters, drought has the highest overall impact on three livelihoods: agriculture, husbandry and aquaculture, while the combined impacts of flooding on the three above-mentioned production activities are only moderate. Droughts and heavy rains all have a moderate impacts on the fishery capturing. The rest are rated low.
Regarding the assessment on production losses due to extreme weather events in this study, the majority of respondents said that they suffered much damages (22.3%) and a lot of damages (30.3%) due to climate changes in the cultivation of food crops. For husbandry, 38.8% of households were severely damaged, 4.9% of households were completely damaged.
The data from other studies (Le Ha Phuong, 2015) also confirm that extreme weather events affect agricultural production with different levels of influence in which cultivation and animal husbandry are most affected.
Climate changes have a strong impact on the livestock and crop sector, most obviously reducing the area of arable land, causing drought, putting great pressure on the development of the crop industry in general and agriculture in particular. Accordingly, the number of households with damaged cultivated land is 66.6%, of which the number of damaged households planting food crops is 75.2%. Currently, the intensification of drought due to extreme weather changes in the north central coastal region has caused agricultural production from cultivation to be reduced by up to 15%. Main crop productivity can be reduced by up to 30%, in many places it can completely lose crops.
As mentioned above, the effects of extreme weather events are likely to fall largely into the agricultural production group, including food crops, secondary crops/short-term crops and husbandry. Accordingly, the phenomena of droughts, storms, and floods are the biggest causes affecting the farming and husbandry activities of the poor. These groups of weather phenomena account for more than two-thirds of the responses of households planting food crops, 50% of households planting secondary crops/short-term crops and 33% of livestock households saying that the impact is strongest.
Thus, it can be said that among poor households, falling into the affected group or houses or means of production or both reduces their per capita income. In particular, the impacts on households affected by housing are quite large, both in the absolute and relative sense. In general, when households suffer from damages to houses or means of production, they lose economic opportunities, or simply lose additional funding to restore stormy houses and lands devastated floods and droughts, leading to the lack of resources for investing in livelihood activities and reducing incomes. From the income perspective, it is noticed that there is a big gap between the extent of damages caused by climate change and the adaptability of the poor and poor households. Therefore, the study of farming models, employment or crop restructuring is essential for the poor to minimize the negative impacts of climate change on their livelihood outcomes and aim to better adapt to climate change.
3. Conclusion and recommendation
3.1. Conclusion
Based on the study and assessment of representative case studies for poor groups affected by climate changes in the North Central Coastal Region of Vietnam, some conclusions can be drawn as follows:
i. Climate change has a great impact on the lives of poor people in the North Central Coastal Region of Vietnam. The extreme weather events have great impacts, mainly falling into the agricultural production group with activities of planting food crops, secondary crops/short-term crops and husbandry. Accordingly, the phenomena of droughts, storms, and floods are the biggest causes affecting the farming and husbandry activities of the poor. Each livelihood activity may be affected by many weather phenomena, but the aforementioned weather phenomena are the most influential factors for the livelihood of the poor in the North Central Coastal Region of Vietnam.
ii. The ability to adapt to climate change of the poor group in the North Central Coast Region is low, due to the current difficult access to markets and the opportunity to find non-agricultural jobs here; the ability to link and form associations and operate as a group for non-agricultural occupations is less feasible. Geographical conditions are fragmented and infrastructure is limited, so this region is also difficult to attract investment. With limited qualifications and skills and capital, and laborers from poor households are difficult to change their livelihoods from agriculture to non-agriculture, even in the cases where enterprises invest in localities. On the other hand, the capacity and understanding of the people about climate changes and the factors affecting climate change as well as the ability to adapt and cope with natural disasters of poor households are very limited. The propaganda and socialization of resources for disaster reduction in the population are too limited and ineffective.
iii. The current social security system in Vietnam with the goal of risk management (including prevention, mitigation and overcoming risks) is not enough to address specific requirements, such as supporting people, households and communities actively prevent risks of life, health, business activities and fluctuations of the natural environment for people of this region. In reality, the operation of this system in addressing the welfare of the poor in the coastal areas of the north central provinces of Vietnam has revealed that.
iv. Most provinces in the North Central Coastal Region of Vietnam have not had in-depth and comprehensive researches on assessing the impacts of climate change on people's lives, especially the poor group in the affected areas, as well as having not enough quantitative data on the potential of future climate change to develop and implement climate change response plans scientifically in the localities. The proper assessment of the impacts of climate changes in each locality, region and with specific social groups in provinces and cities is a prerequisite for coping with climate changes and natural disasters more effective in reality.
3.2. Recommendation
i. Climate changes have increasingly affecting the livelihoods of the poor in the North Central Coastal Region of Vietnam. Despite great efforts by the government, localities and people in minimizing the impact of storms, floods, droughts and other hazards, the poor's livelihoods in this region are still very limited. The research shows that one of the weaknesses of the fight against climate changes and ensuring livelihoods for the poor in the Northern Central Coastal Region of Vietnam is that there is not an appropriate and scientific national strategy to this region so that localities and industries will concretize by planning, solutions and measures to proactively and effectively combat
extreme weather events caused by climate changes. Therefore, the Vietnamese government needs to mobilize domestic and foreign resources to develop a scientifically and feasible climate change adaptation strategies to limit the negative impacts of climate change, ensure livelihoods for people, especially the poor, contribute to social and economic stability and development, improve and enhance the lives of people in this important region.
ii At present, it is necessary to concentrate resources to promote and improve the effectiveness of the "New rural construction" task in the North Central Coastal provinces of Vietnam. The reality has shown that this is a comprehensive and effective solution to create a fairly sustainable livelihoods for the poor through the exploitation of facilities, resources from the state, society and organizations, individuals who have invested in residential communities in the process of implementing the program "New rural construction".
iii. Apart from the rising efforts of the poor, the government, and local authorities, enterprises need solutions to promote the value and spillover effects of economic zones in the North Central Region of Vietnam, such as: Lang Co - Chan May (Thua Thien Hue); Hon La (Quang Binh); Vung Ang (Ha Tinh); VSIP VII (Nghe An); Nghi Son (Thanh Hoa), etc. in creating jobs and sustainable livelihoods for the poor here.
iv. Positive and appropriate solutions and measures should be put in place to improve the operational efficiency of the social security system in Vietnam's North Central Coastal Region. First of all, it is necessary to propose solutions to attract a large number of people, including the poor to participate in more and more health insurance; voluntary social insurance; insurance for crops and animals with appropriate policies from the government for people and enterprises operating in the insurance sector.
References / Список литературы
1. Department for International Development: Departmental Report, 2004. [Electronic Resource]. URL: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200304/cmselect/cmintdev/749/749.pdf/ (date of access: 13.07.2020).
2. Human Development Report, 2007/2008. Fighting Climate Change: Human solidarity in a divided world. [Electronic Resource]. URL: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/268/hdr_20072008_en_complete.pdf/ (date of access: 13.07.2020).
3. Human Development Report 2010. The Real Wealth of Nations: Pathways to Human Development. [Electronic Resource]. URL: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/270/hdr_2010_en_complete_reprint.pdf/ (date of access: 13.07.2020).
4. IPCC Report. Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, 2011. [Electronic Resource]. URL: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/renewable-energy-sources-and-climate-change-mitigation/ (date of access: 13.07.2020).
