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Section 3. Environmental economics
https://doi.org/10.29013/EJEMS-19-4-26-34
Kamal Prasad Panthhe, PhD student, Department of Economics, Dr. Babasaheb Marathwada University, Aurangabad, Maharastra, India. E-mail: kamal.panthhe@gmail.com
Kokate C.N., Professor, Department of Economics, Dr. Babasaheb Marathwada University, Aurangabad, Maharastra, India.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY IN SOUTH ASIA
Abstract. This research paper analyses the climate change and food security in South Asia. The impact of high temperatures, extreme weather events, and sea level rise are felt in South Asia and will continue to intensify. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of South Asian countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people. South Asian countries have high shares of agriculture in total employment. Productivity enhancement and economics growth is seen as an important cornerstone to improving food security in the region. South Asia alone accounts for approximately 40 per cent of the world's hungry population and most disturbingly, the state of food security has further worsened due to declining agricultural growth and increasing population over the past several years.Traditional knowledge about the community coping strategies should be documented and to be used in training programs to help find solutions to address the uncertainties of climate change, build resilience, adopt agriculture and reduce emissions while ensuring food and livelihood security.
Keywords: Climate change, food security, South Asia.
1. Introduction especially in tropical regions. While there is a great
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) deal of uncertainty about climate change, some of in its report World Agriculture Toward 2015/2030, its projected effects are all but certain to occur. Av-estimated that 776 million people located in 98 erage temperatures are rising and will continue to countries were food insecure during the 1997-1999 rise over the coming decades, regardless of what calendar years, mostly concentrated in South Asia mitigation measures are taken, on account of stocks and Sub-Saharan Africa. The report also argued of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. This that the greenhouse gas-induced climate change rise in temperature is already having measurable would further worsen the food security situation, impacts.
Over the last three decades a large number of studies has been undertaken to explore the social and economic impacts of climate change. Research has long since established climate change's numerous adverse effects on the natural ecosystem and humankind, manifesting itself through declining rainfall and rising temperatures. Consequently, severe drought and flooding that threaten food security and economic livelihoods in rural areas could become prominent and frequent results of climate change. Crop production in developing countries and transition countries still relies heavily on the carrying capacity of the surrounding ecosystems for adequacy ofwater, soil quality, climate regulation and other attributes associated with a cleaner atmosphere. Despite technological advances, such as improved crop varieties and irrigation systems, weather and climate continue to play critical roles in agricultural productivity. Loss of weather and climate benefits to the ecosystem seems to coincide with increasing bio-fuel production in several parts of the world. All of these factors could reduce the amount of land available for food crops (UNEP, 2010).
There is growing concerned about the effect of climate change on human life, as the scientific consensus grows that significant climate change is very likely to occur over the 21st century (Christensen and Hewitson, 2007). Climate change can have both direct and indirect negative impacts on the general well-being of people, in which communities of people who depend highly on natural resources such as agriculture and forestry for their livelihoods are most affected by the climate change. In regards to agriculture, the general consensus is that changes in temperatures and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity (World Bank, 2003). There is an increasing concern about the impact of climate change on agriculture in developing countries with changing in global climate (IPCC, 1996). The impact of climate change on the agricultural sector is therefore a matter of grave concern, particularly in
low income countries where a majority of people are living in rural areas. An understanding of the impact of climate change on agriculture in the developing world is likely to be critical for the distributional effects of climate change as well as the potential benefits of policies to reduce its magnitude.
Agriculture provides essential nourishment for people and is the necessary basis for many economic activities. In the most development countries, agriculture accounts for between 20 to 60 percent GDP. The industries and services linked to agriculture in value chains often account for more than 30 per cent of GDP even in largely urbanized countries (Hoffman, 2011).
2. Climate change and its impact
Climate change has an indirect impact on food utility. Climate change is already having big effects on southern Asia. Deadly heat waves like one that killed 3500 people in India and Pakistan in 2015 are becoming more frequent. The summer monsoon rains are effecting the farmers Janson Mclure (2018). From the foregoing, climate change ultimately influences household food security and livelihoods. It affects food availability, accessibility, utilization and stability, and livelihoods in general. Low household income as a consequence of climate change has an impact on output that translates into the inability of households to diversify their diets, generating situations of chronic malnutrition and poor quality of life. It also leads to deterioration in food quality due to increased temperatures and lack of refrigeration equipment, and water scarcity which generates health hazards and poor living conditions especially among poor and vulnerable households who depend on agriculture for their survival. According to FAO report (2016) climate change brings a cascade of risks from physical impacts to ecosystem, agro-system, agricultural production, food chains, incomes and trade with economic and social impacts on livelihood and food security and nutritions.
The climatic conditions, combined with tenuous socio economic situations make South Asia one of
the most vulnerable regions in the world with regard to climate change. The climate of South Asia is characterized by extremes and natural hazards like cyclones, wind storms, droughts and heat waves, floods, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOS), land slides, pest and disease outbreaks, and more. The assessments of the impacts of natural disasters revealed that South Asia accounts for almost 80% of the total population affected and 86% of total damage due to drought in Asia. Similarly, this sub-region accounts for 35% of the total population affected and 28% of the total damage due to floods in Asia (CRED, 2007). Moreover, the productive sectors which include agriculture accounted for over half of associated damages and losses. Climate change will superimpose itself on these existing trends, significantly increasing production risk and rural vulnerability, particularly in regions that already suffer from poverty and hunger.
Climate change is a most critical issue in South Asia. The South Asian countries, particularly the poorest people, are most at risk. The impacts ofhigh temperatures, more extreme weather events, and sea level rise are felt in South Asia and will continue to intensify. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of South Asian countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms (World Bank Group Operations, 2006). The uncertainties associated with climate change do not permit a precise estimation of its impact on agriculture and food production. However, what is happening already in terms of changing seasonal patterns and respective increases in temperature, moisture concentrations and CO2 levels is likely to have diverse impacts on ecosystems — and therefore on crops, livestock, pests and pathogens.
South Asia suffers from stressed and largely degraded natural resources base resulting from geogra-
phy coupled with high levels of poverty and population density. Water resources are likely to be affected by climate change, through its effect on the monsoon, which provides 70 percent of annual precipitation in a four month period, and on the melting and on the melting of Himalayas glaciers. Rising sea levels are a terrible concern in the region, which has long and densely populated coastlines, agricultural plains threatened by salt water intrusion, and many low-lying islands. In more severe climate change scenarios, rising seas would submerge much of the Maldives and inundate of 18 percent of Bangladesh's land (World Development Report, 2010). The World Bank has identified the following key development areas directly affected by climate change: human health, water supply and sanitation, energy, transport, industry, mining and construction, trade and tourism, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, environmental protection, and disaster management (World Bank Group Operations, 2006). The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increase in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level (IPCC, 2007).
Significant climatic variations have occurred in Afghanistan in the last several decades. Since 1960, the country's temperature has risen by 0.6 degree centigrade at an average rate of 0.13 degree centigrade per decade (Savage et al., 2009).The country has observed exceptionally hotter days and warmer nights in recent years. Presently, the country suffers from severe droughts, with little to no precipitation at all. Mean rainfall has decreased by 6.6 percent per decade since 1960 (UNDP, 2008). UNEP (2005) revealed that 26 lakes in Nepal are categorized as dangerous due to threat to glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). As highlighted by the IPCC (2001), glacial melt is expected to increase under changed climate conditions, which would lead to increased summer flows in some river systems for a few de-
cades, followed by a reduction in flow as the glaciers disappear. Shrestha et al (2003) revealed increasing number of flood days and consecutive days of flood events in Nepal, and 26 lakes have been identified as dangerous with respect to glacier lake outburst floods (WWF 2005).
3. Challenges for food security in context of
climate change and growing populations
South Asia is vulnerable to several climate change issues and impacts tied closely to region's geography, economy and population patterns (ADB). Population growth, paucity of resources, and lack of economic opportunities create pressures on ecologically fragile areas and natural resources (Kelkar U and Bhadwal S, 2007). Securing world food security in light of the impacts of climate change may be one of the biggest challenges we face in this century. Another maj or factor affecting food availability is transportation — i.e. after food is produced, it needs to be moved from the point of production to the point of consumption. This often depends on transport systems. In many developing countries, food accessibility is negatively influenced by inefficient and ineffective transport systems which retard the delivery of food items from producers to consumers. This in most cases creates artificial food shortages thereby pushing prices of food items up and making food inaccessible to the poor and vulnerable. The fact that climate change is expected to place a strain on transport systems (IPCC, 2001a) will further worsen the situation in less developed countries.
According to the 2006 Human Development Report of the UNDP, 2.5 billion people in South Asia will be affected by water scarcity by the year 2050. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and an increasing frequency of extreme weather events are expected to be the main reasons for the reduced regional water availability and impacting hy-drological cycles of evaporation and precipitation. This will drastically affect agriculture production in a region where over 60 percent of the agriculture relies on rainfall for irrigation.
South Asia, comprising of eight countries i.e., Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, The Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, is home to over one fifth of the world's population and is the most densely populated geographical region in the world. South Asia is known to be the most disaster-prone region in the world (UNEP, United Nations Environment Programme, 2003). Although the agricultural sector in South Asia continues to grow, it is declining in relative importance, both in terms of its contribution to GDP its share of the labour force (FAO, 2006). Urbanization is increasing, and farm households are diversifying their sources of income beyond agriculture. This relative decline of agriculture is inevitable in countries that experience economic growth, which has been widespread in the region. Nevertheless, a significant percentage of the economically active population is still involved in agriculture in South Asia, and agricultural employment is especially important for the livelihoods of the poor. South Asia is also home to a majority of the worlds poor. According to FAO (2009), 1.02 billion people are undernourished worldwide in 2009. About 456 million people in South Asia are estimated to be undernourished.
South Asia faces key development challenges such as population growth, high incidence of poverty, urbanization and the degradation to the environment. Climate change could make this region more vulnerable and reverse countries' efforts towards achieving the goals by causing reduction in agricultural yields, increased water stress due to changes in precipitation patterns and glacier melting, decline in fishery products, degradation of natural grasslands and impacts on forest products. South Asia lags on most human development goals, although it will likely meet the poverty reduction MDG (World Bank, 2008).
South Asia is the largest sub-region in terms of population in the world. Although declining, the contribution of agriculture to GDP is still substantial in this sub-region. South Asian countries have high
shares of agriculture in total employment. Countries like Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan have more than 60% with India having 56% of workers in agriculture. The South Asian region is highly sensitive to the consequences of climate change. It is known to be the most disaster-prone region in the world supporting a huge population of more than 1.3 billion (UNEP 2003). This is critical as climate predictions for the future highlight increases in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events like droughts and floods (IPCC2001), indicative of the huge population that is likely to be exposed and affected in the region.
Agriculture is the principal occupation of nearly 70 percent of Afghanis and accounts for approximately 40 percent of the country's GDP. Nevertheless, only 12 percent ofAfghanistan's total land mass is arable. Out of the 12 percent of total arable land, only four to five percent is irrigated, while seven percent is rain-fed and cropped opportunistically [United Nations Development Programme, 2005]. Bhutan and Nepal have fragile mountainous ecosystems; Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have low-lying coastal areas, while India and Pakistan depend on cultivation in arid and semiarid lands. These countries have already experienced frequent natural disasters (Kelkar, U and Bhadwal, S, 2007). Sea level has risen between 1.06 to 1.75 mm per year (IPCC, 2007). Such changing climatic patterns will dominate India even by the end of the 21st century. Lal et al., (2010) revealed that India will experience intense rainfall, leading to massive soil erosion and landslides. 'While the number of rainy days will decline by 15 days, the intensity of rainfall will increase by one to four mm per day'.
More than half of the population of Nepal lives in remote hill and mountain regions. Agricultural development in these areas has been neglected for years, and food production fails to meet the needs of the population. Low production is compounded by climate insecurity. Climate change affects agriculture through its impact on crop yields; forests which feed on the agriculture are vulnerable to the change
on forest composition, geographic range of forest, forest health and productivity. Similarly the water resources — water supply, water quality, composition of aquatic species and natural areas- experience loss of habitat and species (Bhandari D).
4. Role of enhancing productivity for food security in South Asia
Food accessibility depends both on market and non-market distribution mechanisms and is at the mercy of climate change. The capacity of individuals and households to buy food may be significantly reduced as income for farmers in developing countries depends mostly on the capacity to sell surplus production. The fact that climate change affects the availability of certain food products will also change the prices households can charge. Particularly, small scale farmers who are often not protected by social safety nets such as insurance schemes may suffer from changes in market prices. Too low market prices will make farmers generate low incomes; if too high, farmers may not be able to sell their products (either because there are no buyers or because they themselves are not able to buy other food and so keep the surplus for their own consumption) all of which affect the accessibility of food. Adequate food utilization is realized when proper food processing, storage and utilization techniques are employed, adequate knowledge of nutrition and child care techniques exist and are applied, and adequate health and sanitation services exist (USAID, 1992).
The majority of the South Asian countries share similar economic and sustainable development challenges. The most prominent similarities are frequent occurrence and susceptibility to natural hazards, excessive dependence on agriculture, widespread poverty and vulnerability to climate change. Five out of eight countries in the region are characterized as Least Developed Countries (LDC), and of these five LDCs, three are Land-Locked Least Developed Countries (LLDC) possessing low-income, weak human resources and economic vulnerability. The
South Asia region contains a population of 1507.5 million (2007) and projections anticipate 1727 million by 2015. Agriculture represents a high share of GDP and approximately 150 million households, with 751 million people classified as agriculture-dependent. Since 1990, millions more people have become chronically hungry in sub-Saharan Africa and in Southern Asia, where half the children under age five are malnourished (UN Millennium Development Goals Report, 2005).
The food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) projects global food consumption per person (expressed as kilo calories/person/day) to rise by an average of0.29% yearly through 2030 (fAO 2006). As average income level rise and more people gain access to adequate diets (Moir and Morries, 2011) the growth offood consumption will moderate to 0.15 a year during 2030-2050. South Asian food consumption per person during 2000-2030 and during 2030-2050 will be 0.51% and 0.33% respectively (Table 1).
Table 1. - Projected growth in population and food consumption
Averag rates e annual growth '%)1970-2000 Averag rates e annual growth '%)2000-2030 Averag rates ;e annual growth '%)2030-2050
Kcal/ Person a Population b Food con- sumption Kcal/ Person a Population B Food con- sumption Kcal/ person a Population b Food con- sumption
World 0.49 1.70 2.20 0.29 1.03 1.32 0.15 0.48 0.63
Developing countries 0.77 2.05 2.83 0.36 1.20 1.56 0.18 0.57 0.75
Sub-Saharan Africa c 0.15 2.80 2.95 0.57 2.23 2.81 0.42 1.48 1.91
North Africa c 0.00 2.57 2.57 0.17 1.56 1.74 0.09 0.82 0.92
Latin America And Caribbean 0.74 2.02 2.77 0.32 0.94 1.26 0.13 0.28 0.40
South Asia 0.47 2.23 2.71 0.51 1.29 1.81 0.33 0.53 0.86
East Asia c 0.49 1.48 1.97 0.35 0.47 0.82 0.06 -0.17 -0.10
Industrial Countries 1.19 0.74 1.94 0.07 0.47 0.54 0.03 0.13 0.16
Transition countries 0.41 0.80 0.49 0.28 -0.64 -0.37 0.19 -0.78 -0.59
Kcal=1000 calorie. A measure of the energy contained in food.a =calculated from FAO (2006) table, b =UN population data, FAQ developing regions Japan, Israel and South Africa are not included. Source: Moir and Morries (2011).
Agriculture remains an important cornerstone to improving food security in South Asian countries. It is also largest source of employment and several economies. The sector continues to be the single largest contributor to the GDP in the region. As such, it will require effective management of the changing context such as urbanization, declining interest in
agriculture, chronic land disputes, and uncertainties surrounding the adaption of food production system to climate change.
The FAO study (2002 and 2006) suggested that climate change will affect the four dimensions of food security, namely availability (i.e., production and trade), access to food stability of food supplies
and food utilizations. The importance of various dimensions and overall impact of climate change on food security will differ across regions and most significantly will depend on the overall socioeconomic status that a region has achieved as the result of climate change (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). They assessed that climate change will adversely affect food security. Climate change may increase the dependency on imports.
Despite being afflicted by serious famines in the past, Bangladesh today has emerged as an agriculturally self-sufficient country. Agriculture is the principal occupation of nearly two-thirds of Bangladeshis and contributes to 20 percent of nation's GDP (Table 3.1). In order to secure food for all, Bangladesh underwent intensive food reforms over the past few decades. Food reforms were initiated by employing the latest agricultural technologies, subsidizing fertilizers and introducing new breeds of seeds from foreign laboratories. Titumir and Bosak (2010) revealed that the government expanded irrigation networks and liberalized import of agricultural commodities, thus easing the food deficit. Successive Bangladeshi governments prioritized food security and invested in enhancing the agricultural productivity of the country. India's agricultural sector has boomed, achieving food self-sufficiency. But, despite achieving food self-sufficiency in the last 30 years, India's food security has worsened over the past 15 years. After independence, the Indian Government initiated major reforms in food policies to achieve food self-sufficiency. High yielding varieties (HYV) of wheat were adopted and major irrigation facilities were built. Consequently, there was a remarkable improvement in wheat and rice output during the '70s. This era is termed as the Green Revolution. However, over the course of time, agricultural growth has been slower, making an average Indian food insecure. India has the most densely populated coastal region in the world (UN World Resource Index, 1998).
Pakistan suffers from serious consequences of climate change on food security. With the rise in
global temperature, the snow-capped Himalayan Mountains in the north are melting at an alarming rate. The Gangotri glacier is retreating 98 feet per year. Such melting of glaciers has resulted in the loss of agricultural output. In the past, severe cyclonic storms in coastal areas and worst droughts have adversely affected Pakistan's agricultural output (Mo-hamood 2008) and (Mohamood 2008) revealed that increased heat waves across the Indian SubContinent in 2005 reduced agricultural yields by 10 to 40 percent of the harvests for that year. Simulation studies of climatic models portray a negative impact of future climatic variations on agricultural output.
5. Conclusion
The conclusion drawn from various studies in this papers shows that climate change is a grave and immediate issue for South Asia. Productivity enhancement and economic growth is seen as an important cornerstone to improving food security in the region. This will require effective management of the changing context of agriculture, such as urbanization, decline of interest in agriculture, chronic land disputes, and the uncertainties of adapting food production systems to a changing climate. The impacts of climate change on food security, access to water, human health, ecosystems, urban areas, and frequency of disasters will have severe implications for the achievement of sustainable development. FAO report (2016) has show, that climate change is already impacting and will increasingly impact, food security and nutrition.
To counter the effects of adverse climate conditions, technical policies and research-based adaptation strategies may be employed. Regional shifts in cropping patterns, heat-resistant varieties, land expansion, development of high-yielding varieties and trade adjustments were found to be very important in providing higher economic benefits and its improving food security conditions. South Asia alone accounts for approximately 40 percent of the world's hungry population (IFPRI, 2010). And, most disturbingly, the state of food security has further worsened due
to declining agricultural growth (1993-2006) and increasing population over the past several years (Mittal and Sethi, 2009). The IPCC defines vulnerability as a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. Within countries, there are many areas which are vulnerable to climate change. Livelihoods are more vulnerable in mountainous areas like Himalayas, arid and semiarid areas like Pakistan and India. Vast coastal areas in the south and small islands are extremely vulnerable due to high exposure of population and agricultural infrastructure to sea level rise (e.g. Maldives) and in-
creased storms. Poor and highly-vulnerable groups include women, children, indigenous people, coastal dwellers, mountainous population and island dwellers. Indigenous population forms the most vulnerable group due to climate change. A special package for adaptation should be developed for rain-fed areas based on minimizing risk. Traditional knowledge about the community's coping strategies should be documented and to be used in training programs to help find solutions to address the uncertainties of climate change, build resilience, adapt agriculture and reduce emissions while ensuring food and livelihood security.
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