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УДК 330.34
JEL: E17, E21, E23, E27, E29, F62, F63, P16, P17
VISIONARY APPROACH TO THE DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS OF RUSSIA AND THE WORLD
Valentina M. Bondarenko
1 Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences 32, Nakhimovskii avenue, Moscow 117218
1 Candidate of Economic Sciences, Leading Researcher, RAS Institute of Economics; Academician of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and International Futures Research Academy; Director, International N.D. Kondtratieff Foundation - Moscow, Russia E-mail: bondarenko@ikf2011.ru
Received: 07/14/2015
Approved: 09/01/2015
Abstract
The article substantiates the position, by which the causes of the crisis situation in Russia and the world can be only understood through the prism of the visionary approach. This position has been confirmed by the many-year search that resulted in development of the new cognition methodology, which made it possible to identify objective regularities in the human community development and to see the road for its further evolution. Keywords: systemic crisis; worldview; new methodology of cognition; human individual; goal; time; sole efficiency criteria; coordination of interests; new model of life organization.
Correspondence: Bondarenko Valentina M, Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Federation, bondarenko@ikf2011.ru
Reference: Bondarenko V. M. Visionary Approach to the Development Problems of Russia and the World. M.I.R. (Modernization. Innovation. Research), 2015, vol. 6, no. 3, part 2, pp. 6-17.
This research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project #14-11-00634 «Mathematical methods of forecasting of the global and country social and economic development»).
Both for Russia and the world, the year of 2014 happened to be a difficult period of grand trials and multiple contradictions. The ailing economy, too, accumulated too many problems - reunification with the Crimea, the followed Western sanctions and, as a matter of response, adoption of a number of prohibitory laws; collapse in the foreign-exchange market; downfall of global oil prices; and, the slow-down of economic growth through to negative indices. As a result, the situation in the socio-economic sphere of Russia and the living standards of its population deteriorated tangibly. Experts refer to different factors that caused such situation, and some of them even state: "There are suspicions that the authorities were dropping the Ruble intentionally" [1]. However, the main point - as seen by Alexey Ulyukaev, the RF Minister for Economic Development, is that "In order to counter the crisis, a strategic plan is necessary, but at the present time it is difficult to draw such a plan because it is hard to predict the volatility vector of the situation"[2].
Since long ago, scholars in different parts of the planet started to contemplate on the ways to transform the world order so that it would be possible to improve natural environment, get rid of poverty, resolve the food problem, eliminate the very possibility of periodically bursting-out wars, resolve a vast number of other problems and make the crises that shake all foundations of human existence be gone into the past forever. Many renown scholars focused their research on this difficult agenda, but so far no country of the world has a strategic anti-crisis development plan.
In view of many economists, many events taking place in the world now serve an ample evidence of the already started second round of the crisis. However, like it was the case before, the monetary methods to resolve the problems through money emission and investments in all sorts of assets for the purpose of resale thereof (shares, raw-resource assets, real estate, etc.) prevail over investments in the fixed capital. This means the further
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slow-down of growth. That is, the past models to counter the crisis by monetary pumping of the economy do not work any longer and therefore such method is not an anti-crisis remedy that would eliminate the primary cause of the crisis.
Furthermore, on the one part, it is recognized that at the present time no serious discourse is underway that would offer any realistic measure to eliminate the crisis. On the other part, at many sites, from all World Economic Forums in Davos through to the G20 summits, we hear the ever stronger statements that the crisis of 2008 and the current second ware are nothing else than the crisis of the contemporary economic model. In such circumstances, unless the cause of such model's crisis is identified, any system of institutes and mechanisms designed to relax tensions arising in realization of anti-crisis measures would be useless, to say the least.
Therefore, we must state that, first, today - as it never happened before - the rhetoric of the academic discourse has changed, and the focus of discussion shifted from the particular issues (such as improvement, acceleration, modernization, reform, etc.) to the more comprehensive ones. As never before, it became necessary to develop a visionary approach to the currently prevailing crisis situation in the world as well to the search of new economic evolution models and new economic development concepts. However, in order to proceed to a new model of economic development, one should have a theoretically verified and practically feasible idea of such model.
On the other hand, we must as well recognize that the global systemic crisis is growing and extending to all facets of the human community's life, while nobody is aware of its profound objective causes or knows the ways to overcome it.
As the observers do not know the formula to overcome the crisis, they the even more often feel the need to turn to history and look for answers therein. The findings, however, are not at all encouraging. For example, Dr. Jeffrey Sommers, Professor of Political Economy and Government Policy at the Wisconsin Milwaukee University in the US and participant of the first Moscow Economic Forum (March, 2013), while discussing the strict adjustment measures to be taken in the face of the looming recession of Russian economy, warned that his biggest concern about such measures could be expressed best by quoting Mark Twain's "History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes", and that the result might be quite unfavorable. The last case, continues Sommers, when the strict adjustment was applied - in Germany, Italy and Japan between the two world wars - resulted in fascism. Without saying that this time the result will be the same, Sommers suggests that it could be quite "unpleasant", as strict adjustment cannot be imposed on people all the time,
because in the end they will react, and nobody knows what kind of reaction that will be. [3]
Exactly because of the methodological vacuum, today many scholars, experts and policy-makers neither understand the objective causes of the crisis nor see the way out of the latter. Therefore no mechanism can be found to overcome the crisis and to take a crisis-free road of evolution, or transition from the asocial model of economic development to adoption and realization of the concept and strategy of economic growth that would be oriented to priority development of the real sector as well as development of any particular human individual and his / her qualities.
So, today many scholars ask the universally arising question: the crisis in the world civilization development, wars, terrorism, man-made and natural catastrophes - shall we treat all these as temporary phenomena and some random events or rather as a chain of cause-and-effect relations and events resulting from the effects of the profound and objective laws being general for nature and society as well as laid in the basis of the world system's co-evolutional development?
Therefore the main condition for transition to the crisis-free development is to receive and master the knowledge on the objective causes of the global systemic crisis, to find the ways to overcome itm and to understand the implications of any decision being taken. The time of development by the trial-and-error method has gone into the past irreversibly.
New Methodology for Cognition of Regularities in the Human Community Development
My research aimed at identification of objective causes of the crisis in the human-system development and at vision of the future has been underway for many years. Over thirty years ago, while seeking to explain the contradictions of the Soviet economy, I came across the fact that then existing economic theories and scientific knowledge at large exhausted their explanatory potentials in the search of ways to overcome the negative phenomena. However, it as well became clear that for resolving these problems, it was necessary - in Marxist terms - to find the only possible form of production relations and thereto relevant production forces. Since then, I started the search of such theoretical thinking at the politico-economic level and such methodological instruments that would help to visualize the objective picture of the human community development, to identify objective causes of arising crises and to see the only possible anti-crisis model of human relations for the present and future.
At that stage of my politico-economic research including, inter alia, the philosophic understanding of the problem, the methodological and theoretical
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basis was served by the dialectical-materialist method, supplemented by the instruments of economic cybernetics. With the attained understanding of the fact that space and time are the major forms of being, and that being without time is the same grand nonsense as being without space, we selected time as the generalizing index (criteria) that would characterize the positive or negative dynamic in relation to the goal.
The offered criteria was a novelty in science because it helped to draw periodization of possible forms in development of production relations and thereto relevant production forces in terms of reduction or growth of time required to attain the development goal [4, pp. 16-24]. The goal was formulated in the same way as it used to be in most of the literature sources on political economy - to satisfy the continuously growing human needs and to create conditions for all-sided and harmonious development of human personality. As a result, we obtained a sort of the Mendeleev's table, but applicable to the human system. All politico-economic laws were subordinated through the factor of time into a closed system with the reverse connection - that is, the laws, which from the very start imply the saving of time, and then become regulating, resulting and by their reverse action set the new spiral for acceleration or slow-down of all development processes. Proceeding from the afore-cited goal, the given periodization revealed impossibility of its attainment. As it became clear, with such goal the law of growing needs shows that we may exhaust all resources, but will fail to attain the goal. Hence, we must look for another goal that would enable us to define the ultimate sense in development of human beings and the entire human system.
The major politico-economic conclusion from that stage of research, defended in the dissertation in 1991, was as follows: (1) a new step forward was made in development of the Marxist methodology. The cell of the society was defined as not a commodity (as defined by Marx) but rather as a particular human individual; (2) no country of the world had not yet reached socialism; (3) socialism would only appear in the situation when property becomes private and at the same time public - that is, when interconnection is established between private production and a particular individual, commodities would be manufactured by demand (order) of a particular individual, and therefore production of redundant and unnecessary commodities would be ruled out, while the resources would be consumed rationally and efficiently.
However, as of the early 1990s, that form of production relations started to correspond to the phase of the primary capital accumulation, and the production
forces were becoming correspondingly the ever more primitive. Innovations were being rejected and development took the retrograde course..
Again, there was a question: was that conclusion a random one? So, it was necessary to reach the higher level of understanding the problem, and the research was oriented to the higher mark - the visionary (world-view) level. As a result of that search the new methodology for cognition was developed and enabled us to identify the objective regularities in the human community development.
In other words, the novelty of this methodology is seen in the fact that it made possible to see the objective regularities of the human-system development in whatever the section - whether the civilizational one, or in the complex dynamics of long-term historical development, or at the local, regional and global levels, or in the section of socio-economic and political systems, or an integral system. The major innovative point is that all the afore-listed subjects are being viewed, studied and analyzed through the prism of attaining the single and objectively set ultimate goal of development - that is, through the prism of the systemic approach.
It should be noted that as early as in 1784 I. Kant in his "Idea for a Universal History with a Cosmopolitan Purpose" considered the world history as a purpose-oriented process. Looking for a way to subordinate history to law, he believed that such law of history must be a law of development. Kant came to see the solution of the task as to link history with the purpose, to which history gravitated initially, as such would attach to it the logical and regular nature. In his view, to subordinate history to law would be the same as to subordinate it to movement toward a certain goal. That is, his proposal was to comprehend history in teleological terms and to try to open in the meaningless course of human deeds the purpose of nature, as with such purpose the creatures acting without their own plan would have their history corresponding to the certain plan of nature [5]. Hence, according to Kant, the reason and purpose of history are to bring the reasonable natural properties of a human individual to the accomplished development. And, such purpose of history is exactly a purpose of nature. At the same time, development of reasonable human properties is expressed in the growth and accumulation of knowledge and use thereof by human individuals for reasonable organization of their life. By Kant, the ultimate goal of the world existence is the supreme good in the world, and in the notion of the supreme good he combines the full realization of the moral law with physical well-being of humans as creatures of nature.
Many authors of the Roman Club reports, too, sought to formulate the global community's development
goal, and proceeding therefrom to develop new proposals for reorganization of the international order (RIO) as well as to find a new, perfect social organization for people. For instance, in the third report for the Roman Club, the authors, proceeding from the universal human values, described the major goal of the global community, where equal opportunities would be provided within and between countries, as provision of dignified life and moderate welfare for all citizens of the world.[6] However, the hopes that the voice of those authors would be heard happened to be futile.
Another paper, the authors of which considered analysis of global problems through the prism of the system of goals and values, and thus realized the cardinal transition from the qualitative to quantitative analysis, was the report entitled as "Goals for Mankind". The fore plane was taken by the concept of "new humanism" and the idea on the priority importance of personal human qualities that would provide for the "human revolution" as well as "revolution of consciousness" and societal transformation. Another cornerstone in the basis of the report was the global solidarity concept suggesting than norms of human behavior and norms of government policy would determine the "new standard of humanism". To this end, however
- in view of the authors led by world-known Erwin Laszlo, professor of philosophy systemic and political sciences, honorary doctor of several universities, program director at the UN Institute for learning and research, and President of the Vienna Academy of Futures Studies - it would be necessary to articulate the global development goals and to present the latter to the world public.
Being led by the set task, Dr. Laszlo and his team analyzed, both at the national and transnational levels, the "atlas of goals" being pursued by different regions, countries, confessions, multinational corporations, UN and other international organizations. Also, they interviewed the maximal possible number of representatives from different spheres and vectors of human activities, and finally set forth the four global goals, such as: (1) global security
- that is, ending the arms, ruling-out of wars and conflicts, and repudiation of violence; (2) resolution of the food problem at the global level, elimination of hunger, and building the global system that would make it possible to satisfy nutrition needs of all people in the world; (3) global control over consumption of energy and primary resources that would help to rational and ecologically safe use of energy, control of technologies and economically efficient nature management; and, (4) global development oriented to the qualitative growth - i.e., improvement of life quality and social justice in distribution of material and spiritual goods.[7]
Proceeding from such objectives, the authors of the report offered several scenarios for the "world solidarity revolution", where the main role was assigned to different combinations of religious communities, intellectual groups, political leaders, government circles, businesspeople, etc. The authors hoped that scholars, religious figures and representatives of business community in one country would be able to render influence on their respective counterparts in other countries, and then acting "all together", they would be able to address critical problems and work out the shared methods for joint resolution. Regrettably, this has not happened so far.
I selected a somewhat different method for defining the global development goal. The set task was to identify the objective, initially set final goal of development. In this case, the final or ultimate goal is the one that cannot serve a means to reach of a higher goal and at the same time is a source (reverse connection) of a qualitatively new spiral in development of a whole system and any sub-system thereof.
The logic is as follows. If any socio-economic and political system can be considered through the prism of the final goal realization, then such goal is of planetary global nature. This leads to the following conclusion. If the existing practice of socio-economic and political development in any country of the world is juxtaposed to the theoretically outlined - or, rather, objectively preset - ultimate goal, then it is possible to reveal some redundant or missing links in the mechanism of the goal realization and to identify the least time-consuming and hence the most efficient and sustainable way to its attainment.
So, the essence and the scientific novelty of the new methodological tool-kit are seen in the fact that its basis is formed by the objectively preset and purpose-related nature of the human-community development. To this end, as said above, it was required to define not just the purpose of the human system development, but rather the ultimate goal, which cannot become a sub-goal of the higher objective within the framework of human existence on the Earth. That is, to define the objective reason of the human system development means to understand that each particular human individual does not live in order to provide for the GDP growth or to manufacture the maximal possible amount of weapons for his/her own annihilation. A human individual can and must live only in order to attain maximal development and realization of his / her spiritual and intellectual potential with the concomitant growth of his / her level of consciousness and physical perfection.
In other words, the objectively set goal is as follows: in the course of his / her development, each human individual must and can reach his / her own perfection or the Supreme Reason. Otherwise development can
be diametrically opposite - that is, the blind-alley scenario, retrograde development to the point of starting everything anew, or a catastrophic final in form of the apocalypse.
The second component feature of the new methodological tool-kit - its integrity, systemic nature and cross-disciplinary approach - is based on the premise that the world is one whole, that the laws of nature and society are one whole, and that the world can only be cognized, if and when all sciences and spiritual knowledge are unified in one whole systemic, integral and cross-disciplinary (or, rather, trans-disciplinary) knowledge. Therefore, it was required to unify all these elements systemically through identification of the target function of the system as a whole and any part thereof in whatever the section (civilizational, formational, national, confessional, territorial, scientific, socio-economic, socio-technical, socio-cultural, political, organizational, etc.), and independently of the prevailing development model (whether the neo-liberal, Keynesian, totalitarian, or a combination thereof). Only this knowledge provides understanding of the fact that the financial, economic, social, managerial, organizational, science-tech and, more generally, the systemic crisis in the world as well as all currently existing negative phenomena are links of one and the same chain. Hence the integral, systemic and uniform solution must be taken for the whole world, but with proper account of the most diversified interests of all residents of our planet.
For the sake of justice it should be noted that while cognizing some or other processes, scientists since long ago learned to borrow from, or to combine different disciplines. But, the spiritual knowledge is another story, where, however, some positive shifts are underway. For example, Frijof Capra, an Austrian-born American physicist, on his book The Tao of Physics: An Exploration of the Parallels Between Modern Physics and Eastern Mysticism, as well as in other works states that both physics and metaphysics inexorably lead to one and the same knowledge. All his works bear the same underlying message -that implicit connections exist between everything. Seeking to find a scientific resolution for the puzzle of life, Frijof Capra, proceeding from the theory of systems, tries to synthesize the latest attainments and discoveries made in physics, mathematics, biology, sociology, and other disciplines with the spiritual knowledge of the Orient.[8]
Another novelty of the methodology being designed for identification and cognition of the objective regularities in the societal system development is found in the selection of the major criteria that would help to express all the variety of processes, to separate the essence from the phenomenon and objective from the subjective, as well as to draw a
generalizing assessment that would characterize the positive or negative development of the human system in relation to the ultimate objective.
For example, first, indexes of GDP, GNP, humanpotential development, happiness, etc., do not help to reveal a regularity, objectivity and vector of the whole variety of processes, because the rate of the economic reality evolution is higher that the rate of its research. Second, as noted by the contemporary analysts, reliability of global statistical data is strongly doubtful. Third, a big portion of statistical information being considered in analysis of economic processes is nothing else but some interpolation of basic parameters built on the basis of certain models constructed in the "boom" period of mathematical programming that lasted from the late 1950s through to the early 1970s. Therefore, such models cannot provide a relevant description of the modern economy's condition - at least, because thereof-typical growth rates extend beyond the small-error field of such models. Even authors of reports for the Roman Club noted that in the course of computer simulation it became clear that any model inevitably reflected subjective views, ideas and preferences of its developers, and this fact would become evident as early as in selection of therein downloaded information. Therefore, such model would not serve the means helping to cognize objective processes and cause-effect relationships. And, fourth, to forecast future is known as an unrewarding and sometimes even dangerous exercise, because negative scenarios and therein laid "thought forms" use to be transformed into reality. It has been scientifically proven many times that thoughts are material and can be an instrument for creating, curing, raising crops, correcting weather, etc., - and, for killing or forcing a human individual to commit inhuman actions through to crimes.
In other words, today, as never before, the existing model of the human-community development (with all its transformations) comes into contradiction with achievements of science and technology. Today the mankind stands at the brink of being self-annihilated by its own intellectual attainments. Notwithstanding this, the human society is presented as probabilistic, quite unpredictable and not strictly controllable, featured by the high rate of uncertainty, and absolutely incompatible with such goals, being proclaimed by the UN and other organizations at the highest possible levels, as the concept of sustainable development, "Millennium Declaration", as well as the concept, strategy and principles of building the informational and civil society. However, the human society, again, is presented as probabilistic, not quite predictable and not strictly controllable, absolutely incompatible with such goals, proclaimed by the UN and other organizations at the highest level as the
concept of sustainable development, "Millennium Declaration" as well as the concept, strategy and principles of building the informational and civil society. On the other hand, scientific knowledge based on the analysis and generalization of empirical data by means of a huge mass of information, indices and calculations made along the pattern "from the past to the present and future" does not disclose the true picture of the world and does not reflect the reality. Therefore we need another paradigm, another index and another information-uptake rate - that is, another cognition methodology that would disclose objective regularities in the human-community development. Hence we draw a conclusion that the need in a different approach to addressing and revealing the laws of human being, in a new methodology for cognition of the human system and in a new measure for all process is somehow in the air and today is ripe as never before.
These examples have been drawn in order to show the magnitude of responsibility for implications for decisions being taken for formation of the global society and its institutes - especially, if such decisions neglect the effects of the profound general laws laid in the basis of the human-system development. Therefore, to create proper conditions for evolutional development of the societal system in relation to the goal, and to bring the entire mankind in one and the same time-bound space is the most important task, because its resolution will make it possible to overcome the crisis in development of the global community as well as to streamline and unify the whole complex of knowledge and theories.
So, the conclusion: from the point of the systemic idea on the status of the human-system development as well as on the selected means to reach the goal and on the mechanism for its realization, it is time that can be such universal criteria. Today the human knowledge, growing like an avalanche, would become immediately outdated. The knowledge built on the empiric analysis of the past and present would be belated in time - when conclusions are drawn, the picture of the world would be entirely different and would not reflect the actual reality.
Thus the third provision of the new cognition is seen in definition of the only possible criteria - time, by means of which all processes and phenomena shall be measured and juxtaposed. By applying this criteria, we can measure and juxtapose immeasurable things in other indices, and, what is the main point - to juxtapose in time all facets of the human and societal life with the target ideal and to identify as what step of the human progress they have reached in relation to the goal.
The only chance for knowledge not to become outdated is seen in the requirement that it must go
ahead of the actual socio-economic and political processes. This can only be attained when knowledge is obtained on the basis of cybernetic, systemic and cross-disciplinarian approaches to consideration of the actual reality and when it does not proceed from empirical analysis, subjective assessments and thereon based theories, built along the pattern "from the past to the present and future", but rather from the theoretical approach "from the future to the present and past". We must know a priori as which socio-economic and political structures and what technological system are relevant to this goal, and what is the mechanism for its realization. Subject to finding the relevance of socioeconomic and political structure, the technological structure and the mechanism for the goal realization, the closer we approach the goal, the faster is the pace of processes. Hence the time between appearance of a material and spiritual need of each particular individual and the society at large, on the one part, and satisfaction of such need, on the other part would become the sole criteria of efficiency in attainment the ultimate goal.
So, the fourth provision of the new methodological tool-kit is the found single criteria of the human-system development - i.e., the time between the arisen need to realize the single goal of development and the reality, in which the society and each particular individual find themselves in relation to such goal at any given moment of time. If the time between arising and satisfaction of a particular individual's need tends to reduce continuously and evolutionally to reach the point of zero, then the human system develops in relation to the goal sustainably and efficiently. Thus we have the absolutely new understanding of the human system development. If this criteria is applied, it would be possible to control or manage the time between arising and satisfaction of a particular individual's need. And, to control (manage) time is the same as to control development in such a way that it would provide for evolutional, irreversible and continuous reduction and approximation to the criterion value equal to zero, Only in such case the human system would start developing in relation to the goal sustainably and efficiently in the interests of each particular individual.
Brief Fundamental Conclusions Drawn in Application of the New Methodology for Cognition
The frames of this article do not include a detailed presentation of the results produced by application of the new methodology, which, however, have been described in detail in such books as "Forecasting the Future: A New Paradigm" and "Crisis-Free Development: A Myth or Reality". Besides, these results have been described as well in numerous articles and conference papers published in Russia and abroad. A smaller part of such publications is
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included in the bibliography that follows this article
[9-21].
In brief, the new methodological tool-kit made it possible:
• to proceed beyond the limits of the entire human system and to see it as a single whole of the "past-present-future" in relation to the objectively set development goal: to satisfy the highest need of any human individual to become spiritually, intellectually and physically perfect and at the same time to attain a high level of consciousness;
• not to rely upon empirical data and subjective judgments on the past and present;
• to understand, in time and space, the objective picture of the human system development depending on the positive (sustainable) or negative (unstable) orientation to realization of a single goal.
In turn, it helped us to see that on the whole multicentury road of the human community development there have been and are only the two paradigms of the human system development (Fig. 1):
Fig. 1. Outlay of the human system development
• the first paradigm: the direct connection, short in time and space, exists between production and consumption. It started from the point, when everything was produced at the level of manual labor being mastered by the mankind, and the latter consumed all products. Hence the time between the appearance and satisfaction of a particular individual's need was minimal. That was the pre-industrial type of production for manufacturers' own needs and, by order, for specific consumers at the households' level (craftsmen);
• the second paradigm: the connection between production and consumption is indirect or mediated. This paradigm of development dates back to the time, marked to appearance of primitive technologies, labor division, market, brokers' class and the universal equivalent of exchange with results of such labor - money. With the gradual territorial
expansion and development of foreign trade, the direct interconnection between production and consumption was undergoing transformation into the indirect connection. Its development in time and space was accelerating in line with the transition to the industrial mode of development. Such were the major landmarks in the process - that is, formation of the mass industrial production of the belt-line type, growth of domestic and foreign trade as well as territorial expansion to the global level, plus mass consumption. Such type of production is oriented to satisfy demand of an abstract end consumer through an elemental, archaic and market form of contact that would be mediated by the growth of time and space. In such circumstances, the uncertainty of consumption resulted in appearance and then the world-wide growth of disproportion in the time being spent for production and time for
circulation of commodities and money through to the absolute de-synchronization. The time spent for circulation is much longer that the time for production. Despite the multiply grown volume of material and tangible of production, the dynamics of their movement has strongly departed from their monetary form (both real and, in particular, virtual). Development in relation to the goal has become elemental, and involution is replacing evolution. Cycles, crises and all other negative phenomena in the human community development are the products of such development paradigm. It is not without a reason that the beginning of the first Kondratieff's cycle (according to Sergey Glaziev) is dated by 1830, marked by the started bloom of the industrial epoch, while the growth of crises is a result of the immensely long time between the appearance and actual satisfaction of a particular human individual.
The monetary methods of countering the financial crisis do nothing else but contribute to such breakaway in the movement of real products and money, and contribute to the even stronger growth of disproportion between the time spent for production and circulation of commodities and money. As a matter of chain reaction, the financial crisis the ever more rapidly would grow into the economic, political and, finally, the systemic crises. This is the currently prevailing development model.
The essence of the second development paradigm is found in the belt-line mode of mass production, oriented to maximization of profits rather than to satisfaction of a particular individual's needs as well as his / her comprehensive development and improvement. The basic relationship between human individuals is presented by the interconnection (desynchronized in time and space) of different technology for manufacturing of goods and intangible values as well as consumption thereof by an abstract consumer rather than by a particular individual. All crises of this development paradigm took place at the peak of the growing time-bound and spatial disproportion between the arising and satisfaction of a particular individual's need.
The current systemic crisis presents the peak, agony and inevitable decline of the given development paradigm. That ism the model of human relations, based on the indirect connection between production and consumption, has been absolutely self-exhausted.
This lengthy time-bound and spatial movement of ideas, commodities, moneys, and information, plus the immensely long time between the arising and satisfaction of a particular individual's need objectively serve the perfect conditions for absolutely all negative phenomena.
To draw the examples, let us consider just some randomly picked-up phenomena. Poverty and inequality, the USD-based Bretton-Woods system, slow-down of economic growth rates, recession, growing prices and inflation, de-industrialization, primitive production and trade, terrorism and corruption, natural abnormalities and disasters, terrorist actions, the recently started events in Ukraine, EU, US and Russia, etc., - all these are links of one and the same chain, and a product of the indirect model of development. In this model of human relations, the factor of time plays a most negative role.
The existing development model presents the indirect human relations that do not correspond to the current era of the cosmic speeds and use of digital, info, cognition, nano- and other technologies. Owing to advent of these advanced technologies, the economic and other realities change rapidly and are no longer compatible either with the afore-described production and consumption or with the indirect (mediated) type of interconnection with a particular individual and with impossibility to coordinate interests therewith.
And exactly at this point we find the objective cause of the current fact that theory and reality cannot meet one another and correspond to one another. This happens because during the afore-mentioned immensely long time "in-between", the interests of the state, business, and society become too different and fail to coincide with interests of a particular individual as well as with interests of those, who bear knowledge. Thus science is put to oblivion and ostracism.
And now, we find ourselves in the period of transition from one to another development paradigm (see Fig. 1). As known, periods of transition use to be the most difficult times for the mankind - especially, when it proceeds to the objectively set goal of development by the trial-and-error method, least consciously.
The visionary approach enabled us to see the objectively inevitable transition and the way to form anew the first, direct paradigm of development, as well as the other, different models of growth and relationships. Such model becomes feasible only with the digital technologies of the 21st century, through which the production, again, can be oriented to satisfaction of a particular individual needs without manufacturing any redundant items. Transition to the indirect interconnection between production and consumption can reduce the "in-between time", eliminate the very primary cause of the systemic crisis and, in relation to the goal, make it possible to proceed to the evolutional mode of development.
The principal outlay of the new life-organization model, which, too, has been discussed and described in many publications, is presented in Fig. 2. This is a
Fig. 2
new model of relations, or new model of growth, at each local level, of production forces relevant to such relations, and the mechanism for conciliation of the state, societal and business interests with interests of a particular individual.
The main point is that the visionary approach enabled us to formulate and, on the basis of this new life-organization model, to substantiate the need in development and realization of the MEGA-PROJECT entitled as "Territory of the Faster Growth: Everything for People". In 2014, this problem was in the focus of the Round-Table discussion that took place within the framework of the Moscow Economic Forum (MEF-2014). The proposals on the Megaproject were approved by the round-table participants, and the respective resolution was published on the MEF website [22].
The main idea of the Megaproject for resolving the strategic tasks suggests the need to form simultaneously all elements of the basis - i.e., new production relations, thereto relevant production forces and the mechanism for realization thereof -proceeding from the preset goal of the human system development on the base of real-time coordination of the state's, society's and business' interests with interests of a particular human individual.
As it was noted repeatedly in my earlier writings, the most important points to be understood in resolving the tactical tasks for the Megaproject realization are as follows:
1. The project can and must be developed by scholars and scientists from all institutes of the RAS and thus it offers to preserve the RAS. Let us recall the GOELRO project - it was realized!
2. For the Megaproject development, it would be possible to build an international cross-disciplinarian team of academic and practical experts, plus to involve the entire global intellectual community, linked and interacting within Internet, in development of the herein offered model.
3. To realize the pilot project basing on the case of different Russian cities and to provide transfer and proliferation of the new life-organization model throughout the whole territory of the country.
4. Partnership of the state, business, society, and a particular individual, all united by their shared interests, would generate
the hope that the theory and reality will coincide in time and space.
The following information will fully confirm my theoretical conclusions (Fig. 3).
Would you guess, what is there on these pictures? The unsold cars - just a tiny piece of the iceberg tip. So far, there quite a few of such parking lots packed with new cars. Car producers have to purchase the ever bigger land plots in order to deploy the accumulating residuals.
Every week plants produce dozens thousand cars, but the sales are very minimal. However surprising this might be, but there are more cars than human beings on our planet - almost 10 billion cars! The stocks of unnecessary cars pile up throughout the world. Their number is growing continuously and, as it seems, endlessly.
However, this problem, too, can be resolved through the digital production.
Fig. 4. This is the first car, manufactured by means of the 3D-printer
This was proved by Jim Kor, an inventor, who assembled a city car from 3D printed spare-parts. The car is rather small, light, economical and, what
Fig. 3
This time, it is not just my own statement, made by me in writing over thirty years ago. The same or similar statements are being published by all global mass media.
That is, the regularities of the humancommunity development, identified at the theoretical level by means of the visionary approach, now are being confirmed already by life.
is the main point, environment-friendly. Jim Kor feels convinced that his project is a herald of the true revolution in the car production.
What is evident already, the future of the automobile industry will be with smaller independent companies developing original projects, and such companies can be located at any local level. Manufacturing of parts at 3D printers would enable them to start producing cars of diversified models.
Today, however, the excess production extends not only to cars and other commodities, but as well to moneys and information. For example, China, Mongolia and other countries have whole new towns, which have been built to please the investors hunting for high profits, but which are not demanded by people because of high prices.
As revealed in the case study performed by the National Committee for Development and Reforms and the Academy of Macroeconomic Studies, in 2009-2013 6.8 trillion USD were invested in vain because the government of China sought to stimulate the economic growth while the construction sector actors were hyperactive to undertake the task. As noted by the authors of the case study, in the aforementioned period about 50% of all investments in the Chinese economy were "inefficient". Today this is evidenced, in particular, by "ghost towns" with unpopulated multistory apartment houses, dead motor roads and dormant steelmaking plants. [23]
All these examples show that the human-relations model, based on the belt-line mass production and its indirect interconnection with consumption has become entirely self-exhausted. This model is fantastically cost-ineffective and has brought the consequences we are faced with today.
I would like to make a special emphasis on the point that the broad access to digital technologies in production is already challenging the traditional models for conduct of business that are typical of the indirect development model, because the main factor laid in the basis of digital production is personalization - that is, manufacturing of products for the one-person "market"!
At the same time, however, the digital revolution in production has the reverse side, too. At this picture we see a gun, and an armorer manufactured it by means of a 3D-printer. It is quite clear, what would be going on in the world, if in future every person would be able to "print" fire arms by means of 3D-printers. The cases in point have occurred already - so far, in singular numbers. But what would happen, if manufacturing of such items becomes a mass phenomenon?
It's quite imaginable, what a threat would be posed for the mankind by nano-, bio- and cognitive technologies, if applied widely within the framework of the currently existing development paradigm. I did write about it, and my article on this subject is published in the journal of the RF Ministry of the Interior [24].
So, we see that the revolution in the production is gaining momentum already. But, it makes many people to ask a question: How are we going to live, learn, work and play, how shall we abide by moral and ethical norms and resolve moral and ethical problems, and how shall be able to protect our life, when any person can do anything anywhere by means of such technologies?
Regrettably, there is almost no discussion on the need to transform the basic foundations in societal development - i.e., to build a new model of human relations that would be relevant to the new production forces. In Russia, we hear talks on the need to modernize industry on the basis of the 6th technological mode and on the base of the so-called NBIC (nano-bio-info-cogno) technologies. However, nobody cares even to think about transformation of human relations in the context of such questions as what and how people would produce by means of these innovation, would they be able to satisfy at least the daily-living human needs, and, most important -what would be the purpose, for which people would produce by means of innovations [25].
In other words, the fruits of the industrial revolution would only serve good to the mankind, if such revolution takes place in parallel with changes in the human-relations model and with formation of the radically new model of growth.
And, the new model of growth means:
• mental realization and acceptance of objectivity of the human-community development goal;
• inevitability and the need in building simultaneously all elements of the basis - such as: the new model of life (new production relations) and thereto relevant production forces, plus the mechanism for coordination of the state, society, business interests with a particular individual's interests in the realtime regime;
• formation of only those tasks, instruments and mechanisms, which in the "time between" appearance and satisfaction of a particular individual's need would provide for minimization of all processes and the efficient use of all resources;
• orientation to a particular individual's needs and conciliation thereof in real time through production by order of the given individual and without manufacturing anything redundant, as the only possible condition that would serve motivation higher productivity of labor;
• providing for the balance of technological and social changes in the real-time or proactively. Owing to such resolution of the problem, the primary cause of the crisis would be eliminated, and the system would operate proactively in relation to foreign and domestic threats. обеспечение баланса технологических и социальных изменений в реальном или опережающем времени;
• to pit it differently, the new model of growth means the growth of opportunities to create conditions for each human individual to attain perfection!
References
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МИР (Модернизация. Инновации. Развитие)
ISSN 2411-796X (Online) ISSN 2079-4665 (Print)
РОССИЯ И МИР: ПЕРЕХОД К НОВОЙ ПАРАДИГМЕ РАЗВИТИЯ НЕИЗБЕЖЕН
Валентина Михайловна Бондаренко
Аннотация
В статье дается анализ кризисной ситуации в России и мире. Утверждается невозможность решения проблем социального и экономического развития, ускорения экономического роста и формирования новой модели в рамках существующей парадигмы развития. С позиций мировоззренческого подхода обосновывается объективная неизбежность и возможность перехода на новую парадигму развития. Для сокращения времени в осуществлении парадигмального перехода и ускоренного достижения объективно заданной цели развития, предлагается разработать и реализовать мега-проект по формированию новой модели жизни и механизм ее реализации - согласование на каждом местном уровне интересов государства, общества, бизнеса с интересами конкретного человека.
Ключевые слова: системный кризис, мировоззрение, новая методология познания, новая парадигма развития, мегапроект. Для ссылки: Бондаренко В. М. Россия и мир: переход к новой парадигме развития неизбежен // МИР (Модернизация. Инновации. Развитие). 2015. Т. 6. № 3. Часть 2. С. 6-17. (in English)
МОДЕРНИЗАЦИЯ
