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ШЕСТОЙ ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКИЙ УКЛАД: МЕХАНИЗМЫ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ РАЗВИТИЯ
13-14 ноября 2015 г.
UDC 339.92
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN RUSSIA UNDER EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION
D. V. Sannikov
In the last 20 years, the development of integration processes with the participation of Russia took place in the Eurasian area quite rapidly: CIS, the Union State of Russia and Belorussia, the Eurasian Economic Community - all these forms of integration interaction brought a good experience of economic cooperation.
Making the Customs Union and formation the Common Economic Space (CES), in fact, was the «core» of Eurasian integration. The emergence of a new major player in the global trading market along with the European Union, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has attracted attention of the world community, politicians, economists and other professionals.
The Eurasian Economic Union is thought to be analogical to the European Union. This is a difficult economic structure than Eurasian Customs Union. The Eurasian Economic will be attempt create strong and independent on state formation because Commonwealth of Independent States and Collective Security Treaty Organization are fail project. The Eurasian Economic Union begins life at 1 January 2015 years. This union has four countries (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia) plus (Kyrgyz Republic from 1 January 2015).
The union will be the largest in terms of area occupying 20 million square miles, with a population of 176 million, 5 Trillion USD overall GDP and the unemployment rate of Eurasian Economic Union is expected to be 5.7%.
The Eurasian Economic Union is seen as an energy superpower, producing about 20% of the world's natural gas and 14% of the world's oil and gas condensate in 2012, making it the world's top producer in both domains. It also produces 9% of the world's electrical energy and 5.9% of the world's coal, making it the third and fourth producer in the world respectively.
Eurasian Economic Union involves the creation of an economic union of states, which would lift restrictions on the movement of goods, services, capital and labor. In addition, within the Union will be coordinated and unified policy on key areas of the economy.
The integration process also provides: Fall of commodity prices and decreasing costs of transportation; Promotion competition in the common market; Increasing productivity; Increasing production by increasing demand for goods; A higher rate of employment; Rise of market volume.
The new trade regime will force Moscow to provide subsidies to $30 billion a year to Minsk and Astana; which will be five times higher than the amount it is spending for this purpose today and the Russian Gas and Oil industry is obliged to pay to this cost.
After joining the Eurasian Economic Union, Russia will subsidize the energy sector of the participating countries of association. Moscow will have to supply energy carriers on domestic prices. Due to cheap raw materials and energy carriers Belarus will benefit and will also have a large market for Belarusian goods with high added value - machinery, equipment and vehicles.
In particular, it is believed that the Eurasian Economic Union is the result of the failure of CIS (Commonwealth Independent States) failed to agree on a wide range of issues due to the number of participants and the lack of mutual trust.
Republic of Kazakhstan has 5.9% an average unemployment rate and a clear tendency to further reduce unemployment. The main source of economic growth and employment in Kazakhstan is the extraction of mineral oil. The country is the largest economy in Central Asia and it is one of the largest energy suppliers in the region.
Kyrgyz Republic will be a member of the Eurasian Economic Union till the end of 2014. All necessary documentation is preparing now. Kyrgyzstan's economy consists mainly of industry and of agriculture, and more than half of the country's labor force is employed in the agricultural sector. Annually, about half a million of Kyrgyzstan's population immigrates to Russian, seeking jobs. The
D. V. Sannikov
unemployment rate in the country in 2013 was 2.4%, and the average value was 2.8% with a further downward trend.
At the moment, Russia is leading trade and economic partner for Kyrgyzstan. Last year, (2013) Russia's share in the total foreign trade of Kyrgyzstan has exceeded 27%. As a sign of good gesture, in 2012 nearly $500 Million dept of Kyrgyzstan to Russia was written off which resulted in closure of one of the US Military bases in Bishkek "Manas" and approval of the Russian Military base.
In particular, within the framework of EEU, Russia plans to create nearly 25 million new jobs due to the modernization of the Russian industry and economy. Also on the territory of Kazakhstan, establishment of 5 industrial productions and uranium enrichment industries are planned.
The Moscow - Astana Railway, 2700kms, Trans-Siberian Railway, overall 11000 KMs and many other projects are part of these investments giving the opportunity to the EEU members to connect to their trade partners like China, EU, India,, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Thailand and etc.
Annalistically, economists consider these infrastructural investments as a benefit to European Union-China trade as well. Main trade partners of the EEU are the European Union, (considered the biggest), China, India, Turkey, Iran and some other countries.
Belief is that the Eurasian Economic Union has significant potential over the next two decades, with experts predicting a 25 percent growth in the member states' GDP by 2030, which equates to over US$600bn. It will also entail collaborative policies in many sectors including agriculture, energy, technology and transportation. These collaborative policies are particularly interesting for countries in Asia seeking access to energy, trade routes in central Asia and Siberia, and agricultural goods. The agreement will give member state citizens access to employment and education across the union.
Today Eurasian Economic Union is a powerful economic institution, whose fate depends on the will of the leaders of the participating countries. Despite of the number of signed agreements between the participating countries, there are still some differences that can harm living Eurasian Economic Union. It should be noted that along with the supporters of the union there are its opponents, so US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, «We note a shift towards re-Sovietization of the region, but of course it will not be called that way. This will be called the Customs Union, the Eurasian Union, or something like that. We know what the aim is, and we are trying to develop effective ways to slow it down or prevent it».
Eurasian Economic Union begins on January 1, 2015 and it is expecting to reach its peak in 2025. In a tough European sanctions against Russia, the fall of oil prices, the depreciation of the Russian ruble it is difficult to talk about any forecasts and specific parameters of Eurasian Economic Union. Therefore, based on data from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Finance, Government of the Russian Federation, etc. we can make a clear conclusion that the unemployment rate in Russia will grow more likely than a decrease, although there is such a possibility. In particular corridor values of unemployment rate in Russia in 2015 is from 5.4 to 6%. Today, the political course of Russia varies from West to East, and Eurasian Economic Union created to strengthen the economies of member countries and «convergence with each other», to modernize and improve the country's competitiveness in the global market.
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Unemployment rate in Russia under Eurasian Economic Union
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