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4THEORETICAL VARIANTS OF EVOLUTION OF ECONOMY AND POPULATION CHANGES
The honored science and education member of the RANS, corresponding-member of the IAS of HS, Life Fellow of the international Biographical Association, Cambridge,UK,
professor, d. t. s.
Pil E.A.
Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Saint-Petersburg State Marine Technical University
Abstract. The article deals with the issues of classification different kinds of countries using surfaces which their economy and population can occupy. Some formulas which are presented in this article allow us to calculate these surfaces.
Economic growth or recession are affected by a large number of factors one of which is growth or decrease in population for objective reasons. In order to find out the interconnection between theoretical economic growth or recession et and theoretical growth or decrease in population pt respectively, we developed Table 1, where possible variants of interconnection of variables et and pt in question are presented. In this work and for our case the word economy will be understood as GDP in the country in question. Thus, depending on context we will use the term GDP or the word economy. The graphs in Table 1 have one horizontal axis Qt instead of two Qet and Qpt with different scales and values. This Table contains 62 lines some of them are presented in Table 1.
Hereinafter in all the graphs of Table 1, a dashed line indicates the et parameter, and the full line indicates the pt parameter.
Variant 1
In this variant economy et and population pt are constant values and do not change in time, i.e. et = const and pt = const (see line 1). Hereinafter the first digit indicates the line number, and the second the column number. Changes of et and pt are described by a linear equation of the form yet = Qet and ypt = Qpt.
Box 11 presents a variant where the population Qpt prevails over the economic variables Qet, i.e. Qpt > Qet. In order to characterize this state of economy and population let us introduce the variable Qpet, which shows theoretical difference between variables Qpt and Qet, and is calculated according to the following formula (1)
Qpet = Qpt - Qet. (1)
In this case the bigger the Qpet value, the lower the population's living standard, as consumption per capita decreases. For the sake of simplicity let us consider that both the elite and oligarchs and the middle class and low-income people consume the same number of goods, products and services. If we do not take it into account, along with the growth of the Qpet value the elite class and the oligarchs will at least not want to worsen their wealth, so the living standard of the middle class and the low-income will decrease.
Thus, here we may have the following variants of situation change or their combinations:
1. The population will take worsening of its situation lying down;
2. Due to its inescapable situation the population will join different religious sects, which will make its economic situation even worse;
3. The population will emigrate legally and illegally whenever possible to more economically developed countries, primarily to countries where population birth rate is going down and that do not have enough workforce, which can be currently seen in Europe;
4. The government will organize more of various holidays and carnivals to distract the population from real life;
5. The government of the country will pursue the "enemy from without or within" policy to reorient the population's views from the economic situation to politics pointing them out as the cause of the current situation. This can be seen in recent and new history of countries, including in the USSR;
6. The government of the country will pursue the policy of making the population drunk, as this is much easier, quicker and cheaper to do than build stadiums, sports grounds and promote a healthy lifestyle, as drunk population is easier to manipulate and it will not take active part in political life of the country.
Moreover, for example, in the Soviet Union income from vodka sales brought much profit to the public purse. Thus, the population will degrade, which can lead to irreversible effects on the nation's gene pool;
Table 1. Variants of interconnection of theoretical economy changes et and theoretical population changes pt
№
1
2
4
Qt - Pt
t IQpet
-t
- Qt pTlQe
2
- Qt Tc- pt - et 1 Tct - t
Qt tc e
cQ^ct ' t
Qt et
s/tcq tc
ct pt
Qt p
T
T C
Tct et t
Qt P1 1 Tbp
Tbp
bpt et t
Qt et s Tbe
CM
Tbet pt
Qt Tbp Tbe ]/P
Qt Tbe Tbp ^ /e t
V : Jpe
t
4
Qt Tc2 Pt
Qt Tc2 et
:T
• -'-pea *- t
Qt i ptmin pt
ci I bt
-Tc2
Qt et
t etmin -et
Tc2
Ss t
i Qt Tpea et Tci I_Tc2J
. Qt etmax pt Tpeai Im^peaZ
" ' et
Qt Tci p<
Qt Tc et
Qt Tc Pt
cq
Ti Tct
E " jjS - t
et
Trt
' qt tcq pt^c
t Tt
t
Qt Tc
Qt
Tc I et — Pt
t
Qt
' - & Pt
Qt etmin Tc2
Qt UPtmin Tc2
Qt TenPn Tc2
'pj
et
Qt Tpnen Tc2
'S
Pt
t
9
Qt ptmax Tc2
' Tpea Jyt _L-. t
Qt etmax Tc2
-Qi Tj
t
Qt Te
t T expx
— - jtmax
Wi**
10
Qt etmax Tc2 'tmir\ /tët
- -Qt ptmax Tc2
-etmins /'et
f I
t
Qt eT Tc2
^J-Pt
--et -*-1
QXptmax Tc2
etmin' et
3
t
1
t
t
3
t
t
t
5
t
t
6
t
7
t
8
t
a
t
7. The government of the country will pursue the policy of "stupefying" the young promoting youth subculture to distract them from active political life;
8. The government of the country will get rid of opposition leaders and activists by different means: by judiciary means, sending them to prison, camps, etc., by physical liquidation, forced emigration to other countries, etc. In the latter case opposition leaders will create foreign centers and, using mass media and the Internet, will start to undermine the antinational regime their compatriots still live in;
9. The government will expel active population from cities to the country on a massive scale as reeducation by physical labor;
10. The government of the country will put the economy on a militaristic footing. This will ultimately lead to worsening of the population's living and possibly to war, which happened in Germany in the last century;
11. In order to distract the population from the democratic process the government of the country will start a war with a weaker neighboring state, which was done by Iraq in 1990 to 1991 and by other countries;
12. In order to improve its own economy the government of the country will join military action started by another state, which can be seen in the history of America, where large GDP growth is directly related to arms and product supply to countries at war;
13. The population will remove the current government and possibly the ruling class from power by means of a democratic election, as it was done in Chili, Venezuela, etc., or by means of a "color revolution" (Ukraine, Georgia);
14. The population will start a revolution and remove the existing regime, as it recently took place in Romania, Tunisia and in other countries.
Box 12 shows dependences where economic variables prevail over population, i.e. Qet > Qpt. In this case the higher the Qept value calculated according to the formula (2), the higher the living standard of the population, which will naturally lead to wealth growth of the whole population.
Qept = Qet - Qpt. (2)
Dependences et and pt changing according to the linear law can be characterized by the tilt angle a of a certain line to the horizontal axis. In the variant in question for all cases of a = 0°. Theoretically the tilt angle a may lie within the following limits -90° < at < +90°. Thus, the symbol of the angle a shows growth (if +) or decrease (if -) of the variables in question.
Variant 2
Line 2 shows variants of change of the economy et and population pt according to the linear law, in this case the set up dependences intersect in point Tc, which has values Tct and TcQ at the corresponding reference axes t and Qt.
In the case in question there are the following four evolution variants possible:
• population pt grows faster than the economy et, box 21. In this case it is desirable that value Tct be at its maximum, which will allow to postpone impoverishment of the country's population;
• the economy et grows faster than population pt, box 22. In this case it is desirable that value Tct be at its minimum. This will allow to increase population's wealth in a shorter time period;
• the economy et decreases faster than population pt, box 23. In this case it is desirable that value Tct be at its maximum. This will prevent population from fast impoverishment and allow to take emergency measures to both increase the country's population and improve the economy as a whole;
• population pt decreases faster than the economy et, box 24. In this case it is desirable that value Tct be as low as possible. This will allow to increase population's wealth in a minimum time period. This variant is not entirely ethical from the moral viewpoint, as sensible population will not want to increase its wealth at the expense of another part of the country's population, moreover, as population decreases, the workforce producing common goods and services decreases accordingly. That is why in this variant it is desirable to use automation and mechanical upgrade of production process, as well as introduction of new technologies, etc. This variant is relevant for countries with large population, poor economic situation and thus excess of workforce.
Variant 3
Here variant 3, which was inserted into this group, though it could have been included into the group of nonintersecting curves. In this variant variables et and pt are parallel to axis t at first, and then they start changing according to a complex law in the points of bend of Tbe and Tbp, where the tangent changes its direction, with similar coordinates (boxes 31 and 32), or with different coordinates (boxes 33 and 34). These
boxes also show projections of points Tbe and Tbp to axis t, which are Tbet and Tbpt respectively. Due to the fact that the coordinates of points Tbe and Tbp are different, we introduced here two new properties of Tep and Tpe, which are calculated with the formulas: |Tep| = Tbet - Tbpt; |Tpe| = Tbpt - Tbet. Here the values of Tep and Tpe are considered according to the absolute value, as they can be the following: Tbpt > Tbet; Tbpt < Tbet or Tbpt = Tbet.
On the basis of the formulas above we can conclude the following:
• if the economy et and population pt change their linear law to a more complex one at the same time, i.e. Tbet = Tbpt, as it is presented in boxes 31 and 32, let us add new parameters in order to make conclusions: ±Aet; ±Apt; Ate and Atp, where ±Aet is growth or recession of the economy in the time period Ate in question, unit, and ±Apt is growth or decrease of population in the time period Atp in question, pers. This means that we need to know how variables et and pt will increase or decrease within the time period Ate or Atp. In this case values Ate and Atp should be taken as equal, i.e. Ate = Atp. In effect it is desirable to assume that values Ate and Atp are equal to one, i.e. one hour, day, week, month or year, depending on specific conditions and the prospect of timely receiving accurate information on changes taking place in the economy or population.
Thus, we can note down the following three formulas for box 31:
1. Apt - |-Aet| = 0;
2. Apt - |-Aet| > 0;
3. Apt - |-Aet| < 0.
4.
As for box 32, we can note down the following:
5. Aet - |-Apt| = 0;
6. Aet - |-Apt| > 0;
7. Aet - \-Apt\ < 0.
8.
For the sake of simplicity here the + sign was omitted.
In boxes 31 and 32 in question there are the following two evolution variants possible:
1. When variables et and pt change by the same value, i.e. when |±Aet| = |±Apt|. If the values are equal |±Aet| = |±Apt|, it is desirable for box 91 that the value of point Tbpt be at its maximum, as in this case the population's wealth will decrease far in the future. As for values |±Aet| and |±Apt|, here they must be at their minimum, as in this case the population's wealth will decrease very slowly;
2. When variables et and pt change according to different laws, i.e. |± Aet| Apt|. Here it is desirable for variables et and pt in box 31 that the sum of values |—Aet| and Apt be at its minimum (j- Aep | + Apt ) ^ min. In this case population growth and simultaneous recession of the country's economy
will take place more smoothly. As for box 32, here it is desirable to have maximum Aet and |-Apt| values, as in this case population's wealth will increase in a minimum time period.
For boxes 33 and 34 there are the following two evolution variants possible:
1. If the economy starts falling earlier than population starts growing, it is desirable that the value of Tep tend to the maximum, i.e. T ^ max, as in this case population will slide into poverty slower (box 33);
2. If the economy starts improving later than population starts decreasing, it is desirable that the value of Tpetend to the minimum, i.e. Tep ^ min, as in this case growth of population's income may
have a good impact on birth rate (box 34). Variant 4
Line 14 shows variables et and pt that differ from those above in that one of the dependences is a curve that goes down to its minimum Temin (Tpmin) at first, and then goes up intersecting the line twice. In boxes 41 and 42 the lines in question go up, and in boxes 43 and 44 they go down. Here there must be the following values of the parameters in question. For parameters Aet and Apt:
• boxes 41, 43:
to the minimum point: - Ap ^ max ; beyond the minimum point: Ap ^ min,
• boxes 42, 44:
to the minimum point: — àet ^ min ; beyond the minimum point: Aet ^ max. For parameters Tpea:
• box 41: Tpea ^ max , Tpeal ^ ^ , Tpea2 ^ maX ;
• boX 42: TPea ^ min , TPeal ^ ^ , Tpea 2 ^ min ;
• boX 43 TPea ^ maX TPeal ^ ^ TPa2 ^ maX .
• box 44: TPea ^ min , Tpea\ ^ min , Tpea2 ^ min .
In this variant while choosing the maximum or minimum values of the parameters in question we encountered duality of their interpretation. So, for example, if in box 44 parameter Ta1 is at its maximum, population's economic situation will decrease for a long time, and then it will shoot up. If the value of parameter Tfl is at its minimum, population's economic situation will shrink, but it will shoot up then. In this case the author, of course, considers it desirable to choose the second evolution variant, where T tx ^ min . Variant 5
This variant is similar to variant 4, but here the curve has a maximum. That said, at first the curve goes up to its maximum Temax (Tpmax), and then goes down and intersects the line twice. In boxes 51 and 52 the lines in question go up, and in boxes 53 and 54 they go down.
Here there must be the following values of the parameters in question: For parameters Aet and Apt:
• boxes 51, 53:
before the maximum point: Ap ^ min ; beyond the maximum point: — Ap ^ max
• boxes 52, 54:
before the maximum point: Aet ^ max ; beyond the maximum point: — Aet ^ min . For parameters Tpea:
• box 51: TPea ^ min , TPeal ^ min , T'pea2 ^ min ^
• box 52: Tpea ^ max , Tpeal ^ max , Tpea2 ^ max ;
• box 53: Tpea ^ min , Tpml ^ min , Tpea2 ^ min ;
• box 54: Tpea ^ max , Tpeal ^ max , Tpea2 ^ max .
Variants 6 and 7
These two variants show variables et and pt that intersect in one point Tc. Here there must be the following values of the parameters in question: box 61: Tf ^ min, Ae ^ max, Apt ^ min ; box 62: ^ max , Aet ^ max, Apt ^ min ; box 63: ^ min, — Aet ^ min, — Apt ^ max ; box 64: Tf ^ max , — Ae, ^ min, — Ap ^ max ; box 71: ^ min, Ae, ^ max, — Ap, ^ max ; box 72: ^ max , — Ae, ^ min, Ap ^ min .
The following three variants 8, 9 and 10 show intersections of curves in two points, and in this case the maximum and minimum coordinates of variables et and pt can be equal, i.e. Tptmin = Tetmin etc. (boxes), or
differed i.e. Tptmin > Tetmin or Tptmin < Tetmh etc.
Variant 8
In order to describe variables et and pt shown in line 8, as well as in lines 9 and 10, which can have their maximum and minimum values both at one line and dislocated, let us introduce the following eight new parameters given below:
1. Tpnen is the difference between the coordinates of points Tptmin and Tetmin. Unit;
2. Tenpn is the difference between the coordinates of points Tptmax and Tetmax. Unit;
3. Tpxex is the difference between the coordinates of points Tptmax and Tetmax. Unit;
4. Texpx is the difference between the coordinates of points Tetmax and Tptmax. Unit;
5. Tpxen is the difference between the coordinates of points Tptmax and Tetmn. Unit;
6. Texpn is the difference between the coordinates of points Tetmax and Tptmin. Unit;
7. Tpnex is the difference between the coordinates of points Tptmin and Tetmax. Unit;
8. Tenpx is the difference between the coordinates of points Tetmin and Tpmax. Unit;
The eight parameters described above show dislocation of the peaks of variables et and pt. This said, the subscript enpx shows that the first intersection point is a curve, in this case a coordinate of the minimum point of variable et, and the second intersection point is the maximum point of variablept, i.e. Tetmin > Tptmax.
Line 21 shows variants of change of variables et and pt in the form of two curves having minimum points and intersecting in two points. Here in boxes 81 and 82 their minimums are located at one line, and in boxes 83 and 84 they are dislocated in relation to each other by the value of Tenpn (box 83) or by Tpnen (box 84).
Here there must be the following values of the parameters in question.
For parameter T^d.
• boxes 81 and 83. T ^ max ;
• boxes 82 and 84. T ^ max.
For parameters Tenpn and Tpn
boxes 81 and 83: ^ min where Tbet >Tbpt;
enpn pnen
V
pnen
Tenpn ^ max where Tbet < Tbpt For parameters Qenpn and Qpnen.
• boxes 81 and 83. Q ^ max ;
• boxes 82 and 84. Qpnen ^ min ; Variant 9
Line 9 shows variants of change of variables et and pt as two curves having maximum points and intersecting in two points. Here in boxes 91 and 92 their maximums are located at one line, and in boxes 93 and 94 they are dislocated in relation to each other by the value of Tpxex (box 93) or by Texpx (box 94). Here there must be the following values of the parameters in question. For parameters Tepx and Tpex.
• boxes 91 and 93. T ^ min ;
• boxes 92 and 94. T ^ max. For parameters Texpx and Tpxex.
• box 93. Tpxex ^ max where Tbet >TbPt;
T<xp)x ^ min where Tbet < Tbpt;
• box 94. Tpxex ^ min where Tbet > Tbpt; Texpx ^ max where Tbet < Tbpt.
For parameters Qexpx and Qpxex.
• boxes 91 and 93. Q ^ min.
• boxes 92 and 94. Q ^ max. Variant 10
Line 10 shows variants of change of variables et and pt, as two curves having maximum points and intersecting in two points. Here in boxes 101 and 102 their maximums and minimums are located at one line, and in boxes 103 and 104 they are dislocated in relation to each other by the value of Tpxex (box 103) or by Texpx (box 104).
Here there must be the following values of the parameters in question. For parameters Tepx and Tpex.
• boxes 101 and 103. T ^ max
• boxes 102 and 104. T ^ min
For parameters Tenpx h Tpnex:
• box 103: Tpnex ^ max where Tbet >Tbpt;
Tpnex ^ max where Tbet < Tbpt;
• box 104: Tenpx ^ min where Tbet >TbVi,
Tenpx ^ min where Tbet < Tbpt,
For parameters Qp»« h Qpn:
• boxes 101 and 103: Qexpn ^ maX;
• boxes 102 and 104: Q ^ min .
Due to the fact that two variables et and pt have the same coordinates when they are tangent, let us call it equilibrium line Lbd. This line has such properties as the following: population consumes entirely all products, goods and services produced in the country in the time period of them being tangent.
Based on the tangent and merging variables et and pt described above, let us introduce concepts in a similar way to the equilibrium point: equilibrium of the economy and population, i.e. where the GDP value and population are equal Qeti = Qpti.
Now let us introduce the following three definitions to equilibrium of the economy and population.
Theoretical equilibrium of the economy and population is understood to be the equation Qeti = Qpti, where the population consumes all the quantity of products, goods and services in a time unit its country produces in the same time unit without loss, and import is fully absent.
Practical equilibrium of the economy and population is understood to be the equation Qepi = Qppi, where the population consumes all the quantity of products, goods and services in a time unit its country produces in the same time unit considering their loss AQeth and import is ^ fully absent.
Real equilibrium of the economy and population is understood to be the inequation Qeri = Qpri, where the population consumes all the quantity of products, goods and services in a time unit its country produces in the same time unit considering their loss AQeth and the remaining lack of products, goods and services in covered by import.
SPECIALTY OF THE USAGE OF ELECTRONIC MARKETING IN TOURISM
Djuraeva Z. T., Khurramov O. K.
Uzbekistan, Bukhara State University
Abstract. In the given work there were studied benefits of using electronic marketing in sphere of tourism. Contrary to the traditional communication media which basic function consists in information delivery, the Internet is not simply the information transmitter, and much more - the global virtual market. Tourism today is the global computerized business in which participate air companies, hotel chains and tourist corporations of the entire world. Modern tour product becomes more flexible and individual, more attractive and accessible to consumer. Electronic marketing is accomplishing electronic function by the Internet, information technologies and telecommunication systems. Electronic marketing is also called internet marketing, web marketing, online marketing or digital marketing.
Keywords: Internet, electronic marketing, display advertising, eE-mail marketing, blog marketing, social media marketing, mobile marketing.
Today's society is in such stage that the information technologies are being rapidly spread and the influence of it is enough considerable in most of part of economic life.
Availability of electronic atmosphere by the result of the development of global information and communicative technologies and the large number of companies using the opportunities of this atmosphere in their working process is the most significant mark of economics. Todays' businessmen are actively using opportunities of information technologies. In most cases, the usage degree of it signs the success of running business, and its place in inner and outer world market.
