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Мир в экономических индексах, зависящих от размера страны.
X. Амплитуды милитарного беспокойства
Сейдаметова Зарема Сейдалиевна, доктор педагогических наук, профессор
Темненко Валерий Анатольевич, кандидат физико-математических наук, доцент
Крымский инженерно-педагогический университет имени Февзи Якубова, Симферополь, Республика Крым
Цель исследования – ввести два новых измерителя степени милитаризации страны: «амплитуды милитарного беспокойства», как отношения Милитарного Индекса MI к Продуктовому Индексу PI и Демографическому Индексу DI, и исследовать зависимость Амплитуды Милитарного Беспокойства от основных экономических индексов с целью выявления критериев, отделяющих «нормальный» уровень милитаризации, совместимый с экономическим развитием страны и её демографическими ресурсами, от «избыточной» или «недостаточной» милитаризации. Для достижения этой цели представлено и описано распределение стран в 2021 на плоскостях, образованных осью Амплитуды Милитарного Беспокойства и той или иной осью основных экономических индексов. Научная новизна заключается в анализе этих распределений, позволяющим отделить «нормальную» милитаризацию от «избыточной» или «недостаточной» с точки зрения экономической и демографической обоснованности. Изучение этих распределений выявляет в результате картину начального состояния мира в 2021 перед глобальной и радикальной геополитической трансформацией, начавшейся в 2022 г.
Ключевые слова: мировая экономика; экономические индексы; милитарный индекс; амплитуда милитарного беспокойства.
Цитировать: Seidametova Z.S., Temnenko V.A. The World in economic indices depending on a country’s size. X. Amplitudes of the military disquietude // KANT. – 2023. – №1(46). – С. 85-91. EDN: QBAETG. DOI: 10.24923/2222-243X.2023-46.15
Seidametova Zarema Seidalievna, DSc of Pedagogical sciences, Professor
Temnenko Valerii Anatolievich, Ph.D. of Physics and Mathematical sciences, Associate Professor
Fevzi Yakubov Crimean Engineering-Pedagogical University, Simferopol, RC
The purpose of the study is to introduce two new measures of the degree of militarization of the country: “amplitudes of military disquietude”, as the ratios of the Military Index MI to the Product Index PI and to the Demographic Index DI, and to investigate the dependence of the Amplitude of Military Disquietude on the main economic indices in order to identify criteria separating the “normal” level of militarization consistent with the economic development of the country and its demographic resources, from the “excessive” or “insufficient” militarization. To achieve this goal, the distribution of countries in 2021 on the planes formed by the axis of the Amplitude of Military Disquietude and one or another axis of the main economic indices is presented and described. The scientific novelty lies in the analysis of these distributions, which makes it possible to separate “normal” militarization from “excessive” or “insufficient” militarization in terms of economic and demographic rationales. The study of these distributions reveals as a result a picture of the initial state of the world in 2021 before the global and radical geopolitical transformation that began in 2022.
Keywords: world economy; economic indices; the military index; amplitude of the military disquietude.
УДК 339.97:330.43
5.2.5
Seidametova Z.S., Temnenko V.A.
The World in economic indices depending on a country’s size.
X. Amplitudes of the military disquietude
Introduction
In papers [1] and [2] the idea of the Military Index MI was introduced. In the previous paper [3], matrices of the connection between the country’s military potential and its economic and demographic potential were introduced and studied.
The purpose of this study is to introduce a new quantitative measure of the degree of militarization of each country in the form of the ratio of the Military Index MI to each of the country's two main economic indices: the Product Index PI and the Demographic Index DI. Both of these ratios, MI:PI and MI:DI, we will call the “Amplitude of the Military Disquietude”. These amplitudes are introduced as a tool to distinguish between “normal” militarization and “excessive” or “insufficient” militarization of a country. Here the terms “norm”, “excessive” and “insufficient” are used from the point of view of compliance with the economic opportunities of the country and with its demographic resources, and not with the aim of predicting the success/failure of the real possible use of the country's military potential in combat conditions.
The purpose of the study structures the following tasks: 1) to study the distribution of countries on the {MI, MI/PI} plane and identify the “norm” of militarization of countries, as well as identify countries with an excessive level of militarization using this distribution; 2) to explore the distribution of countries on the {EPI, MI/PI} plane and identify countries with normal and excessive militarization; 3) to explore the distribution of countries on the planes {PI, MI/PI} and {DI, MI/PI} and identify countries with normal and excessive militarization; 4) to build and explore similar distributions for the second Amplitude of the Military Disquietude. The theoretical basis of this study is the previous papers of this series of papers [1-9]. The practical significance of this study lies in the methods for classifying countries by the level of militarization according to the statistical data of 2021, which create some global picture of the initial conditions before the radical geopolitical transformation unfolding from 2022.
Main part.
Preliminary remarks. The two Amplitudes of the Military Disquietude introduced by us MI:PI and MI:DI are not statistically independent from each other. Their ratio ((MI:DI)/(MI:PI)) is obviously equal to the ratio PI:DI. This relation, as shown in [4], satisfies the index identity:
PI/DI=EPI/EPI_c . (1)
In formula (1) EPI is the Economic Productivity Index introduced in [10]:
EPI=(GDP/PC)/max〖{GDP/PC}〗 ∙100 (%), (2)
where GDP/PC is Gross Domestic Product per capita, and max{GDP/PC} is the maximum of this value reached by one of the countries of the world in the same year. EPI_c is a global economic parameter introduced in [4]:
EPI_c=max〖{GDP}〗/(max〖{POP}〗∙max〖{GDP/PC}〗 )∙100 (%). (3)
In formula (3) max{GDP} is the maximum value of GDP achieved in one of the countries of the world in the same year; max{POP} is the population of the country with the largest population in the same year.
The global economic parameter EPI_c contains data on three “champion” countries. In recent years, these are the USA (“champion” in GDP), China (“champion” in population) and Luxembourg (“champion” in GDP/PC). In [4], the parameter EPI_c is identified with the boundary on the axis EPI that separates highly productive economies (“hot” and “warm” economies) from low-productivity (“cold” economies).
Formula (1) shows that for highly productive countries (EPI>EPI_c) the MI:DI amplitude exceeds the MI:PI amplitude, and for countries with a “cold” economy (EPI<EPI_c), on the contrary, MI:DI is less than MI:PI .
For the convenience of the reader, we recall here the definitions of the main economic indices PI and DI:
PI=GDP/max〖{GDP}〗 ∙100 (%), (4)
DI=POP/max〖{POP}〗 ∙100 (%), (5)
where GDP is the country's Gross Domestic Product and POP is the country’s population.
The GDP and GDP/PC values are measured in current US dollars. Indexes MI, PI, DI, EPI are measured as percentages, but the percent symbol (%) is usually omitted when writing indexes.
A complete list of such countries for which the Military Index MI 2021 is known is given in the electronic appendix to the paper [1] (https://bit.ly/3SviXZL). In this list, ordered by MI descending, in addition to the index MI, there are also the 2021 indices PI, DI, EPI and MI:PI and MI:DI. Abbreviated three-letter country names are also given, in accordance with the well-known ISO standard [11]. These abbreviated names are shown in the figures in this paper.
World on a plane {Military Index MI, Amplitude of Military Disquietude MI:PI}. Fig. 1 shows the distribution of the countries of the world on the plane {MI, MI:PI}. The solid line in this figure shows some conditional upper limit of the “norm” for the Amplitude of Military Disquietude. This smooth border is drawn so that most countries are below it.
If a country is above this “norm” line, then one can speak of “excessive” militarization of the country. Fig. 1 shows that in the region of military SuperGiants (these are only three countries), Russia has excessive militarization: the MI:PI value for Russia, equal to 11.61, significantly exceeds the MI: for USA (1) and China (1.16). In the zone of military Giants (10<MIMI_IND=44.13) an excessive militarization of Pakistan (MI:PI=17.90), Egypt (MI:PI=12.95) and Ukraine (MI:PI=14.92) can be noted. The Amplitude of Military Disquietude of these countries significantly exceeds the similar Amplitude for other countries with similar values of the Military Index MI. In the zone of countries belonging to the “MI-Big” Military Level (5<MI10) as excessive militarization can be seen in Myanmar (MI:PI=24.71) and Venezuela (MI:PI=31.00). These two countries, in terms of the Amplitude of the Military Disquietude, are superior to other countries with similar values of the Military Index. For countries with low values of the Military Index MI (MI2) we have adopted the upper limit of the “normal” for the Amplitude of Military Disquietude (MI:PI=30). As can be seen from fig. 1 nine countries exceed this limit. Eritrea has the highest Amplitude of the Military Disquietude in the world (MI:PI=101.37). All these nine countries are in the “military trap” described in paper [9] for small countries. Having a small population (DI1, only Chad has DI=1.20), low GDP (PI0.05), these countries have to strain their economic capabilities quite significantly in order to create a military force that provides the Military Index MI1-2. It can be assumed that these countries actually maintain armed forces beyond their possibilities. Here is a list of these countries: Eritrea (MI:PI=101.37), South Sudan (MI:PI=73.86), Central African Republic (MI:PI=70.93), Kyrgyz Republic (MI:PI=50.93), Suriname (MI:PI=45.12), Tajikistan (MI:PI=41.56), Chad (MI:PI=41.33), Montenegro (MI:PI=34.26), Liberia (MI:PI=33.20). In this list, only two countries have EP>1% (Montenegro, EPI=6.84 and Suriname, EPI=3.42). All other countries in this list belong to the EPI-group the Least Development Countries (EPI<1). The paper [9] notes that a small country falls into the “military trap” voluntarily. A small country may not attempt to build a high MI by maintaining a military at a level consistent with its economic capabilities. An example of such rational behavior is Iceland, which has the smallest MI and MI:PI values in the world (MI=0.053, MI:PI=0.48). But such behavior seems to be possible only for a highly productive country: Iceland has EPI=50.50.
Figure 1 - World on the plane {Military Index MI, Amplitude of Military Disquietude MI:PI} 2021.
––––– conditional upper limit of a “norm” for MI:PI.
World on a plane {Economic Productivity Index EPI, Amplitude of Military Disquietude MI:PI}. Fig. 2 shows the distribution of countries on the plane {EPI, MI:PI} in 2021. Some conditional upper limit of the “norm” for the Amplitude of Military Disquietude is shown in the form of a smooth line, below which most countries are located. The abbreviated names of those countries that are above this line are written. These countries can be considered “excessively militarized” due to the increase in the Amplitude of Military Disquietude. In addition to those already shown in fig. 1 low-productivity countries with small EPI, which are in the “military trap”, in fig. 2 other “excessively militarized” countries also appear. In the zone of highly productive “hot” economies (EPI≥EPI_JPN=28.78), only one country has “excessive” militarization: Israel, MI:PI=7.68. “Hot” economies are characterized by low values of the Amplitude of Military Disquietude MI:PI. For the USA, this Amplitude is 1. Three “hot” countries have MI:PI less than one (Iceland, MI:PI=0.48; Ireland, MI:PI=0.83; Germany, MI:PI=0.99).
Figure 2 - World on a plane {Economic Productivity Index EPI, Amplitude of Military Disquietude MI:PI} 2021.
––––– conditional upper limit of the norm MI:PI.
In the zone of “warm” economies (11.9EPI<EPI_JPN), the level of the upper limit of the norm for MI:PI increases with a decrease in EPI. Several warm economies are “excessively militarized” as measured by elevated MI:PI values. Fig. 2 shows such countries in the “warm” zone: Croatia (MI:PI=14.19), Bahrain (MI:PI=10.58), Estonia (MI:PI=9.94), Slovenia (MI:PI=7.98). The amplitude of the Military Disquietude of these countries, in itself not very large, exceeds for each of them the MI:PI values for other countries with similar EPI values.
Armenia is marked on the fig. 2 as a country with an excessive militarization. The MI:PI amplitude for this country (MI:PI=29.66) exceeds the value of this parameter for other countries belonging to the EPI-group MiddleCold (2<EPI4).
World on the plane {Product Index PI, Amplitude of Military Disquietude MI:PI}. Fig. 3 represents the distribution of countries on the plane {PI, MI:PI}. The axis of the Product Index PI is the interval from PI=0 to PI=10. In 2021, there were only seven countries with PI>10. All of them had small Amplitude of Military Disquietude values from MI:PI=0.99 for Germany to MI:PI=3.34 for India. There are 11 countries in the segment from PI=4 to PI=10. Ten of them have small Amplitude of Military Disquietude from MI:PI=1.16 (Mexico) to MI:PI=4.34 (Korea). One country in this PI patch is “excessively militarized”: Russia has a high MI:PI of 11.61. There were 13 countries in the range from PI=2 to PI=4 in 2021. In this interval, one country is “insufficiently militarized” (Ireland, MI:PI=0.83). Two countries with higher values of the Amplitude of Military Disquietude can be considered “excessively militarized”: Israel, MI:PI=7.68 and Turkey, MI:PI=6.16. The remaining ten countries are “normally militarized” for these Product values PI, with MI:PI ranging from 1.40 (Belgium) to 4.10 (Thailand).
There were 18 countries in the interval from PI=1 to PI=2 in 2021. Two of them have an excessively large Amplitude of the Military Disquietude for this PI interval: Pakistan, MI:PI=17.90; Egypt, MI:PI=12.55. These countries, noted earlier in the fig. 1, should be considered “excessively militarized”.
With a further decrease in the Product Index PI (PI<1), the upper limit of the norm for the Amplitude of the Military Disquietude MI:PI increases sharply. But even against the background of this growth of the “norm”, one can note the excessive militarization of Greece (PI=0.94, MI:PI=9.88), Iraq (PI=0.91, MI:PI=8.20), Ukraine (PI=0.86, MI:PI=14.92 ), Algeria (PI=0.72, MI:PI=12.39) and Myanmar (PI=0.28, MI:PI=24.71). All these countries in the fig. 3 are located above the conditional border of a “normal militarization”. All countries with MI:PI>30, whose abbreviated names are shown in fig. 3 are “excessively militarized”. Almost all of them are small countries that are in a “military trap”.
Figure 3 - World on the plane {Product Index PI, Amplitude of Military Disquietude MI:PI} 2021.
––––– conditional upper limit of normal for MI:PI.
World on a plane {Demographic Index DI, Amplitude of the Military Disquietude MI:PI}. Fig. 4 represents the distribution of countries on the {DI, MI:PI} plane. This figure shows the conditional upper limit of the “normal militarization”. This figure is inscribed (as in previous figures) with the names of nine small countries that are in a military trap and the names of seven countries with “excessive militarization” with a sufficiently large population of these countries (DI2). Five of these countries are marked as “excessively militarized” by other criteria applied in the previous figures (Venezuela, Myanmar, Egypt, Russia, Pakistan). The two countries labeled as “excessively militarized” in Fig. 4, according to other criteria they “sank” under the corresponding upper limits of “normal militarization” in fig. 1, 2 and 3. These are Yemen (DI=2.19, MI:PI=29.49) and Dem. Rep. of the Congo (DI=6.64, MI:PI=11.84).
Figure 4 - World on a plane {Demographic Index DI, Amplitude of Military Disquietude MI:PI} 2021.
––––– conditional upper limit of normal for MI:PI.
Second Amplitude of Military Disquietude MI:DI. The MI:DI “population-based” Amplitude of the Military Disquietude is a more difficult indicator for analyzing of “normality” or “excessiveness” of militarization than the Amplitude MI:PI. On two-dimensional distributions of the form {one of the economic indices, MI:DI}, countries with “normal” militarization and countries with “excessive” militarization turn out to be mixed. An example of such “mixing” is shown in fig. 5. This figure shows the distribution of countries on the {MI, MI:DI} plane. In this figure, the abbreviated names of all countries with a sufficiently high value of the second Amplitude of the Military Disquietude {MI:DI>15} are inscribed. In this list, along with the countries that we marked at least once as “excessively militarized” according to the first Amplitude MI:PI (Israel, see fig. 1 and fig. 3; Montenegro, see fig. 1, 2, 3 and 4; Bahrain and Estonia, see fig. 2), there are countries with the “normal” militarization: Luxembourg, Norway, Singapore, Qatar. These four countries are highly productive hot economies. As noted in the “Preliminary remarks” section, such countries can have large values of the second Amplitude of the Military Disquietude (MI:DI>MI:PI). This is not evidence of excessive militarization.
On the same fig. 5 the names of only three countries with MI:DI<10 are inscribed for which the second Amplitude of the Military Disquietude exceeds the same Amplitude of other countries with similar values of the Military Index MI. Two of the three countries were previously marked as excessively militarized (Russia, MI:DI=8.70; Korea, MI:DI=9.28). The third country with a comparable MI:DI value is known to be “normally militarized” (Australia, MI:PI=2.50; MI:DI=9.76).
Figure 5 - World on the plane{ Military Index MI, Amplitude of Military Disquietude MI:DI } 2021
Consequently, the distribution of countries on the plane {MI, MI:DI} does not allow one to separate countries with excessive militarization from countries with normal militarization.
Fig. 6 (a, b, c) shows the distribution of countries on the {EPI, MI:DI} plane. This distribution allows you to see the upper and lower limits of the militarization norm by the Amplitude MI:DI, but only separately for each of the six EPI-groups.
On fig. 6a shows the normal militarization line for the hot economies with the highest EPIs. All “hot” countries are inside this border, with the exception of the excessively militarized Israel. This country has the highest values in the world for the second Amplitude of the Military Disquietude (MI:DI=24.25).
Fig. 6b shows two closed lines that we propose as normal militarization boundaries for the economies on the level Warm (11.9<EPI25.95) and the economies belonging to the EPI-group UpperCold (4<EPI11.9). On this fig. 6b the names of all “warm” countries and some countries of the EPI-group UpperCold are inscribed.
a
b
c
Figure 6 - World on a plane {Economic Productivity Index EPI, Amplitude of the Military Disquietude MI:DI} 2021.
–––– conditional limits of the norm for the different EPI-groups.
In the EPI-group Warm, judging by Fig. 6b, only Croatia lies outside the closed border of the normal militarization in this group (EPI=12.30, MI:DI=14.66).
In the EPI-group UpperCold Montenegro (EPI=6.84, MI:DI=19.66) and, to a certain extent, Russia (EPI=8.22, MI:DI=8.70) and Botswana (EPI=5.42, MI:DI=9.41) are distinguished by its excessive militarization. Excessive militarization of these three countries was also noted above by other criteria.
Fig. 6c shows lines delimiting the region of normal militarization for the EPI-groups UpperCold, MiddleCold, LowCold, and LDC.
In the EPI-group MiddleCold (2<EPI4), only Suriname is outside the closed area of normal militarization. We noted above that Suriname is one of the small countries that are in a “military trap”.
In the EPI-groups LowCold (1<EPI2) and LDC (EPI1), the upper limit of normal militarization drops sharply (see fig. 6c). Therefore, the three “excessively militarized” countries lying outside this boundary in these EPI-groups have very small values of the second Amplitude of the Military Disquietude MI:DI. These are Republic of Congo (EPI=1.96, MI:DI=3.86), Kyrgyz Republic (EPI=0.94, MI:DI=4.01) and Eritrea (EPI=0.46, MI:DI=3.93).
Conclusions
This paper discusses several ways to separate the normal militarization from the excessive or insufficient militarization using two Amplitudes of the Military Disquietude MI:PI and MI:DI. For this, the distribution of countries on two-dimensional charts is used, one of the coordinate axes of which is the Amplitude of the Military Disquietude, and the second axis is the axis of one of the main economic indices (PI, DI, EPI, MI). It is noted that the use of the first Amplitude of the Military Disquietude (MI:PI) with a high degree of confidence makes it possible to distinguish normally militarized countries from the excessive or insufficient militarized ones. It is noted that some small countries are excessively militarized, because they are in a “military trap”.
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