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ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ
THE USE OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ASSESSING LAND
AND LAND PLOTS
1 2 Ismagulova A.A. , Massakova S.S.
1Ismagulova Anara Aitmukhambetovna - Master of Economic Sciences, Senior Lecturer;
2Massakova Saltanat Sailhanovna - Candidate of economic sciences, Associate Professor, DEPARTMENT FINANCE AND STATISTICS, NARHOZ UNIVERSITY, ALMATY, REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
Abstract: the article proposes a technique for calculating the value of land plots using correlation regression analysis in the case when some factors influencing the cost of a land plot do not have a quantitative estimate or when it is impossible to obtain quantitative estimates for quantitative factors.
This article also discloses the use of statistical methods, both when making amendments, and directly assessing the value of land plots on the basis of an analog approach. Keywords: correlation-regression analysis, land and land estimation, correction factor, mathematical model.
The peculiarity of the methodology for calculating the value of land site is the possibility of using correlation regression analysis in the case when individual factors affecting the cost of a site do not have a quantitative estimate or when it is impossible to obtain quantitative estimates for quantitative factors.
The second proposed calculation methodology can be used in the case where it is not possible to directly obtain a valuation of the site.
For example, the need for an indirect and not direct assessment of the cost of a site is associated with those cases where there is a single price for buildings and the site on which it is located, in which case the site can be valued only indirectly, through the influence of its value on the price of the building. To assess this influence, it is necessary to assess the impact of not only the plot, but also other factors: the location of the house, the area, the number of storeys, the materials of which the house is made and other characteristics of the house. Identify the impact of these factors, using correlation-regression analysis.
We undertake to assert that: economic and statistical methods based, in particular, on correlation-regression analysis, must fully comply with the requirements of the "Methods of estimating land and land resources" to date in the current conditions for the development of the primary land market more reliable method for assessing land plots of non-agricultural destination does not exist.
Thus, we would make the following recommendations for the improvement of the " Methods of estimating land and land resources ", directly using statistical methods, both when making amendments, and directly estimating the value of land plots on the basis of the analogue approach [1].
Hence it is easy to conclude that the valuation of the land plot, performed on the basis of the correct application of economic and statistical methods, will always be more accurate and objective evaluation, performed on the basis of direct comparison with random objects of sale, accepted as analogs. In other words, the presence in the immediate vicinity of the evaluated area of several previously sold sites, which, according to formal characteristics, are suitable for analogs, does not yet mean the unconditional priority of the result obtained by the method of paired comparisons. A random variable is a stochastic, probabilistic quantity.
The degree of its approach to truth, which is the most probable value, is unknown. The cost, obtained on the basis of economic-statistical methods, is a generalized and regular
value, the confidence interval and the systematic error of which are known. The totality of random variables is a regularity [3].
Hence it can be summarized that processed by the methods of mathematical statistics and averaged information on the cost, say, of several dozens of sold identical land plots located in several comparable settlements, is the objective basis that practically completely excludes the probability of the expert making erroneous, unreliable data on the cost analogues. Having the average cost of analogues, the task of the appraiser will be to study the differences in the specific characteristics of the evaluated area, affecting its value, from the analogous average statistical characteristics of analogous sections and the calculation of the resulting formulas of correction factors.
As the land market develops and develops in Kazakhstan, as we said earlier, the significance of the results of the evaluation, obtained with the help of the comparative approach, increases. The subjects of valuation activities require more rigorous evidence of the results of the assessment. And what can be more demonstrative, if not a judgment about the evaluation, based on the results of statistical modeling of mass data or the application of mathematical procedures that allow to minimize the subjectivity of the appraiser's assumptions [4].
Being a supporter rather than an opponent of a formalized approach to the assessment process, we believe that the correct application of various mathematical methods in the evaluation activity ultimately leads to more demonstrable results, including for various inspection bodies, rather than the use of the informalized approach and the results generated on a subjectively intuitive level. With a comparative approach, the sale prices of similar properties are used as evidence of the value of the valuation object. The valuation is made based on the prices of analogical objects, which act as indicators of the value of these objects, but adjusted taking into account the difference in their characteristics from the corresponding characteristics of the object of evaluation. The need to make corrections (adjustments) in the prices of analogical objects (objects of comparison) arises due to the fact that there are practically no two exactly identical objects of property in all essential parameters (legal, economic, physical, etc.).
It is well known that the comparative approach is particularly effective in the case of the existence of an active market for comparable real estate. The accuracy of the assessment depends on the quality of the data collected, because, using this approach, the evaluator must collect reliable information about recent sales of comparable objects. These data include: physical characteristics, time of sale, location, terms of sale and financing. The effectiveness of this approach is reduced if there were few transactions and the date of their completion and the valuation date shares an extended period, or if the market is in an abnormal state, as rapid changes in the market lead to a distortion of the indicators [1].
The generalized mathematical model of the comparative approach for determining the market value of real estate has the form:
Where:
C - cost of the valuation object;
Ui - the price of the i-th analogue;
Mij - adjustment of the price of the i-th analogue to the difference with the object of evaluation with respect to the j -th price-forming factor;
vi - the weighting factor of the i-th counterpart;
n - the number of analogical objects;
k - the number of analyzed pricing factors.
In the assessment practice, there are two groups of methods for calculating corrections [1]: qualitative and quantitative.
Expert estimates are used to calculate the qualitative corrections. This methodology is based on the professional experience and intuition of the appraiser, which is a deliberately subjective approach. Methods for calculating quantitative corrections are based on modern mathematical methods, so that significantly increases the objectivity and evidence of the results obtained.
The choice of this or that mathematical method depends on the quantity and quality of the initial information about the analogical objects. In addition, there is a direct relationship between the number of factors by which the evaluator compares and the number of analogues. In the presence of a sufficiently large amount of data on analogical objects, preference should be given to statistical methods that allow us to identify regularities against the background of randomness; build multi-factor valuation models and, on their basis, obtain sound conclusions and forecasts [2].
Recently, in international practice, in particular the Russian and Ukrainian assessments, statistical methods have become increasingly popular. This can be seen from the number and quality of articles published in specialized periodicals for evaluation. Especially I would like to note the practical results of application of regression models for estimating land plots of Ukrainian appraisers G.A. Panasenko and T.P. Panasenko.
The most relevant statistical methods in assessing the cost of suburban areas and areas intended for individual housing construction, since information on supply prices is generally available and available in sufficient quantities.
The use of regression analysis in the assessment makes it possible to establish the regularity of the influence of the main pricing factors on the resulting resultant (usually cost) indicator, both in their totality and each factor separately. With the help of regression analysis as a method of mathematical statistics, it is possible, first, to find and describ e the form of the analytical dependence of the resulting indicator on factor variables and, secondly, to evaluate the tightness of this dependence. Due to the solution of the first problem, a regression model is obtained, which then calculates the desired index for given values of the factor variables. The solution of the second problem makes it possible to establish the reliability of the calculated result.
With the help of the obtained regression model, it is possible to calculate, in addition to the point model, an interval forecast of the value of the property. For this purpose, a numerical interval is calculated in which the true value of the market value of the evaluated object falls with a certain, rather high probability. Having such an interval forecast, the valuer gets the lower and upper bounds of the cost.
Currently, a rather large place is occupied by the processes of buying and selling land for cottages and housing construction.
The cost of them is determined by supply and demand, as well as the presence of certain signs: remoteness from the city; flat or uneven, an important characteristic from the point of view of the construction of a residential building; perhaps a certain role is played by the area of the plot.
References
1. Medvedev O.E. Methodical recommendations for assessing the value of land. Moscow, 2004.
2. Dubrov A.M., Mkhitaryan B.C., Troshin L.I. Multidimensional Statistical Methods: A Textbook. Moscow: Finance and Statistics, 2000.
3. Ismagulova A.A. Dynamic and structural changes in the composition of the land fund of the RK // Quarterly scientific and practical journal "Statistics, Accounting and Audit". Almaty: 3 (54), 2014.
4. Ismagulova A.A., Massakova S.S. «Analysis of the seasonality index of thenumber of passengers carried by the Metropolitan of Almaty city»// Quarterly scientific and practical journal "Statistics, Accounting and Audit". Almaty: 3 (58), 2017.
