CC BY
22
DOI https://doi.org/10.18551/rjoas.2017-05.16
THE ROLE OF THE BUREAU OF LOGISTICS (BULOG) IN THE ADEQUACY OF RICE
IN BENGKULU PROVINCE, INDONESIA
Efrita E.
Faculty of Agriculture, Muhammadiyah University of Bengkulu, Indonesia
Sjarkowi F.*, Yazid M., Adriani D.
Faculty of Agriculture, University of Sriwijaya, Indonesia
*E-mail: fachrurrozie [email protected]
ABSTRACT
The availability of rice from domestic production is not stable. The role of the Bureau of Logistics (BULOG) is to stabilize the availability of rice by buying the rice at the time of abundant production and distribute it at the time of scarcity. The objective of this study is to analyze the sufficiency of rice in Bengkulu Province based on the availability of rice from the domestic production and the changes in the stock of BULOG of the Regional Division of Bengkulu. The data used are the monthly time series data of the period from 2010 to 2015. The adequacy of rice is observed at the level of regency/municipality in four categories of adequacy. The results of the calculation on the basis of annual supply and consumption show that Bengkulu Province is in the surplus of rice or in the safe category. The rice sufficiency in all regencies of Bengkulu are also in the safe category, except in the City of Bengkulu that experiences deficit with a category of severe. The rice deficit is most prevalent in December. The provision of rice from bUlOG does not have much effect on the sufficiency of rice in Bengkulu Province. BULOG should be aware of rice deficit in Bengkulu City and Lebong Regency especially in the months of January, June and December since in these months centers of rice production also experience rice deficit
KEY WORDS
Adequacy, availability, rice, production.
Rice is the main staple food in Indonesia. As the nation's main staple food, rice becomes a national strategic commodity. Rice is not only an economic commodity, but also a political commodity that has a broad social dimension. The ever increasing growth of population and the declining of paddy field areas because of the land conversion cause the task of fulfilling rice for the population of Indonesia at every moment and in every region become increasingly more and more difficult.
The supply of rice in Indonesia comes from the domestic production and import. The domestic rice production is unstable since it is influenced by many factors, such as land, technology, climate, and farmers. The provision of rice through importing will have an impact on rice self-sufficiency, food independence and food sovereignty. According to Sjarkowi (2015), food sovereignty is far more important than food security, which means that in fulfilling food sufficiency we should be independent, be technologically oriented, and not be dictated by other countries, and be sustainable. Therefore, the rice supply from the domestic production should receive the most attention from the government.
The Public Enterprise of Bureau Of Logistics (BULOG) is an agency appointed by the government to maintain the stability of the domestic rice. BULOG purchases grain/rice of the domestic production which refers to the Government Purchase Price (GPP) for the Government Rice Reserve (GRR) and rice stocks for subsidized rice program for low-income communities. The rice is then distributed to the poor and the food-insecure population, in a state of emergency or disaster, in a state of social conflict, and at a time when rice prices are uncontrollable. The stock changes of BULOG indicates the provision of rice by the government. If the change is positive, the government's rice reserve increases and the
supply of rice for the public is reduced. If it is negative, the government's rice reserve decreases and the provision of rice for the people increases.
Based on the Map of Food Resilience and Food Vulnerability (Food Security Council, 2015), Bengkulu Province is in the category of high surplus of rice, in which the ratio of per capita normative consumption to the net production of cereals (rice, maize, cassava and sweet potato) is less than 0.5. However, the circumstance of this surplus of rice sufficiency is questionable. The question is whether the production is overestimate or the demand is underestimate. In Bengkulu Province, much rice is found from the neighboring provinces, such as Lampung, South Sumatra, West Sumatra, even from outside the island of Sumatra, such as Banten and West Java, as well as imported rice in BULOG of the Regional Division of Bengkulu. Therefore, the writer is interested in doing a more in-depth analysis of the role of BULOG of the Regional Division of Bengkulu in stabilizing the availability and the sufficiency of rice in Bengkulu Province.
METHODS OF RESEARCH
Time and Location of the Study. This study was conducted from January 2014 to November 2016 in the Province of Bengkulu. Bengkulu was selected as the study area since the contribution of the sub-sector of the agriculture to the GDP is still fairly high at 31 percent and rice is the staple food of the population. Additionally, in the Province of Bengkulu there is one city that always experiences a deficit in rice, which is surrounded by 9 regencies which are in surplus of rice.
Types and Sources of Data. The data used in this study are monthly time series data of the period from 2010 to 2015. The variables used are the size of population, per capita consumption of rice, domestic rice production, and changes in stocks of rice of BULOG of the Regional Division of Bengkulu.
Analytical Model. The analytical method used is the descriptive qualitative analysis. The facts, the phenomena, the variables, and the circumstances that occur at the time of study are described as they are and are presented in the form of tables, graphs, or figures.
Rice sufficiency is viewed in terms of the supply (availability of rice) and in terms of the demand (consumption of rice). Rice sufficiency means that there is a balance between the availability of rice with the amount of rice consumption. If the amount of the availability exceeds the amount of consumption, it means a surplus occurs, and vice versa, if the amount of the availability is less than the amount of consumption, a deficit of rice occurs. The rice sufficiency is stated as follows:
CB = QSB - QKB (1)
CB > 0 = Surplus of rice (ton) CB < 0 = Deficit ofrice (ton)
Where: CB = Rice sufficiency (ton); QSB= Total availability of rice (ton); QKB= Total consumption of rice (ton).
To reveal the role of the Bureau Of Logistics (BULOG) of Regional Division of Bengkulu in the sufficiency of rice in Bengkulu Province, the availability of rice is calculated by two approaches. The first approach is to calculate the availability of rice from the domestic production without role of BULOG. The rice availability with the first approach is calculated by using the equation:
QSB1 = 0,6274(QPG - QGPa - QGC) - (QBPa + QBC) (2)
Where: QSB1= Total availability of rice from the domestic production without the role of BULOG (ton); 0,6274= Conversion rate of dry milled grain into rice; QPG = Total grain production (ton); QGPa = The amount of grain used for feed (ton); QGC= Number of grain spilled (ton); QBPa = The amount of rice used for feed (ton); QBC = The amount of scattered rice (ton).
The second approach is to calculate the availability of rice from the domestic production with role of BULOG. The availability of rice with this second approach is calculated by using the equation:
QSB2 = [0,6274(QPG - QGPa - QGC) - QASBP] - (QBPa + QBC) (3)
Where: QSB2= Total availability of rice from the domestic production with role of BULOG (ton); QASBP = The role of bUlOG, proxied by variable changing the rice stok of BULOG (ton).
The grain used for feed and that which is scattered is respectively 0.44% and 5.4% of the supply of grain, while the rice used for feed and that which is scattered is respectively 0.17% and 2.5% of the supply of rice (Food Security Agency of Bengkulu Province, 2015). This percentage is used to proxy the availability of rice.
The consumption of a commodity is affected by the price of the commodity itself, the prices other commodities, both the substitutes and the complements, the level of income, the tastes or preferences of consumers, and the population, and other shift factors. For the commodity of rice which is the staple food of Indonesia's population, the factor of the increasing population is the major factor that causes rice consumption to continue growing from year to year.
In addition to household consumption, rice is also used for food processing industry and the needs of hotels and restaurants (Erwidodo and Pribadi, 2003). In this study the reseacher restricted the analysis of rice only for household consumption. The amount of rice consumption of the residents of Bengkulu Province is obtained by multiplying the per capita consumption of rice by the size of population, by using the following equation:
QKB = aJP (4)
Where: QKB = Total consumption of rice; a = Amount of rice consumption per capita; JP = size of population.
By substituting equation (2) and (4) into the equation (1), the rice sufficiency equation is obtained as follows:
CBi = [0,6274(QPG - QGPa - QGC) - (QBPa + QBC)] - aJP (5)
And by substituting equation (3) and (4) into the equation (1), the rice sufficiency equation is obtained as follows:
CB2 = {[0,6274(QPG - QGPa - QGC) - QASBP] - (QBPa + QBC)} - aJP (6)
Per capita rice consumption is obtained through three approaches, namely the actual consumption, the normative consumption, and the consumption of food-insecure households. The actual consumption is obtained from the information issued by the Provincial Food Security Agency of Bengkulu. The normative consumption is obtained from the Regulation of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia Number 75 of 2013 about The Nutrition Adequacy Score that is recommended for Indonesian People, namely as much as 2,150 kcal/capita/day on the consumption levels. Based on the National Desirable Dietary Pattern (NDDP), 50 percent of the energy needs is fulfilled by consuming food of grains group. While the rice consumption in food-insecure households is obtained from the energy consumption of food-insecure households according to Jonsson and Tole in Maxwell et al., (2000), that is < 860 kcal/capita/day.
Rice sufficiency in Bengkulu Province is divided into four categories, namely: 1. Safe, that is the condition when the amount of the rice availability is more than the amount of the actual consumption, which means that there is a surplus of rice (CB > 0). This area is colored purple.
2. Healthy, that is the condition when the amount of the rice availability is less than the actual amount of rice consumption, but larger than the normative consumption, which means that a deficit in rice occurs (CB <0). This area is colored green.
3. Crisis, that is the condition when the amount of the rice availability is less than the amount of rice for normative consumption, but larger than the consumption of rice in food-insecure households, which means that a deficit in rice occurs (CB <0). This area is highlighted in yellow.
4. Severe, that is the condition when the amount of the rice availability is less than the amount of rice for the consumption of insecure households, which means that a deficit in rice occurs (CB <0). This area is colored red.
The sufficiency in rice can be explained in Figure 1.
Surplus Deficit
Availabiiity *
Safe Healthy Crisis Severe
I-1-\-1-1
actual normative insecure huii^liold
COll^llHiptiolL consul ntion roiisumprimi
8-ftf £.45 6.76
mviiih ks/cmplta/moitfli iiETapiia^woiitti
Consumption 4_^
Figure 1 - The Categories of Rice Sufficiency in the Province of Bengkulu
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Bengkulu Province is located in the western side of the Bukit Barisan Mountains and is directly adjacent to the Indian Ocean with a coastline of approximately 525 kilometers. The astronomical location of Bengkulu Province is between latitudes 2o16'S to 3o31'S and between longitudes 101o01'E to 103o41'E. The existing area, 1,724,103 hectares (86.55 percent) as agricultural land, consisting of 1,632,452 hectares of agricultural land other than paddy fields and 91,651 hectares of paddy fields. Paddy is the food crops that is dominantly cultivated in the Province of Bengkulu, consists of 93.46 percent wetland paddy and 6.54 dryland paddy (BPS-Statistics of Bengkulu Province, 2016).
The type of climate of Bengkulu Province is categorized as type A according to Schmidt's and Ferguson's climate classification, allowing rice farming throughout the year because the availability of water is ensured. The season that occurred in the Province of Bengkulu are two seasons: the rainy season which occurs in the month of December to March and the dry season which occurs in the month of June to September. While in April-May and October-November is a transition.
The availability of rice comes from the domestic production and the changes in the stock of BULOG of Regional Division of Bengkulu. The availability of rice is presented in Table 1.
Table 1 - The availability of rice in the Province of Bengkulu in the period of 2010-2015
No. Rice Availability (ton) Growth (%)
Years domestic production changes in stock of BULOG Total
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5 = 3 - 4 ) (6)
1. 2010 297,193.30 4,468.94 292,601,77
2. 2011 288,959.42 -6,228.50 295,358,78 0,94
3. 2012 334,591.57 5,664.88 328,771,29 11,31
4. 2013 358,121.75 -5,877.34 364,160,32 10,76
5. 2014 341,078.00 1,673.83 339,358,25 -6,81
6. 2015 332,718.27 953.69 331,738,42 -2,25
The data in Table 1 show that the availability of rice until 2013 increased 7.67 % per year, but in the period of 2014 to 2015 the availability of rice declined 4.53% per year.
Rice consumption of the population of Bengkulu Province is still high. In 2015, the consumption of food of grains group reached 67.3 percent of the Nutritional Adequacy Score (Food Security Agency of Bengkulu Province, 2016). The development of consumption of food of grains group by the population of Bengkulu Province can be seen in Table 2.
Table 2 - The Consumption of the Food of the Grain Group by the Residents of Bengkulu Province
in the Period of 2010-2015
No. Years Grain (kg/capita) Rice (kg/capita) Corn (kg/capita) Wheat (kg/capita)
1. 2010 128.30 119.60 0.30 8.40
2. 2011 121.50 111.80 0.70 9.00
3. 2012 114.70 106.30 0.40 8.00
4. 2013 114.80 106.40 0.20 8.20
5. 2014 113.59 105.69 0.40 7.50
6. 2015 119.33 106.13 0.70 12.50
Average (kg/capita) 118.70 109.32 0.45 8.93
Standard (kg/capita) 100.40 91.00 2.70 6.70
Growth (% per year) -1.36 -2.32 43.10 11.33
The data in Table 2 show that the consumption of rice per capita by the population of Bengkulu Province is the highest as compared to the consumption of corn and wheat. This is consistent with the results of the study by Cahyani (2008) and Lantarsih et al. (2011) which indicates that rice is still the main energy source in Indonesia compared to any other food of grain group.
The data in Table 2 also indicate that per capita rice consumption tends to decline due to rising income of the people. The GRDP of Bengkulu Province based on the valid prices of 2010 was 18.60 trillion. In 2015 the GRDP at constant prices of 2010 increased to 38.07 trillion. According to Engel's Law, at the time of low income, most of the budget is spent on the staple food need. When income increases, the proportion of income spent on buying the staple food is reduced, although the actual expenditures for food increased (Chai and Moneta, 2010).
The rising income of the people lead to the shifting of rice consumption to other foods made of flour, such as instant noodles and bread. This is indicated by the increase of per capita flour consumption by 8.4 kg per capita in 2010 to 12.5 kg per capita in 2015. Wheat is an imported foodstuff, the increase of its consumption will thresten the food independence and food sovereignty.
Figure 2 - Total Rice Consumption in Bengkulu Province, 2010-2015
The increasing knowledge about health and nutrition causes the decrease of rice consumption. The results of the study by Park et al. (2005) showed that the pattern of food was very closely related to education and health behaviors. According to Hu (2002), the
increase of disease risk is caused by errors of food consumption patterns, such as excessive consumption of rice can trigger diabetes.
Rice consumption decreases due to the successful implementation food diversification program. The consumption of tubers increased from 27.4 g/capita/ day in 2014 to 33.8 g/capita/day in 2015. In addition, the decline in rice consumption may also be due to saving behavior in consuming rice. The results of the study by Anriany and Martianto (2013) wasteful practices can cause a loss of 4.7 grams of rice per capita per day, an equivalent of 1.72 kg per capita per year. Total rice consumption in Bengkulu Province for 2010 - 2015 period can be seen in Figure 2.
The data in Figure 2 show that the greatest amount of rice consumption occurred in 2010. This is due to the fact that the consumption of rice per capita in 2010 was still very high (119.6 kg per capita). In the period of 2011 - 2012 the consumption of rice decreased with decreasing per capita consumption of rice. Later in the period of 2013 - 2015 per capita rice consumption was declining, however because the population continued increasing, the amount of rice consumption began to rise again from year to year. The results of this study are consistent with the results of the study by Efrita (2001) which show that the projected demand for rice increases annually in Bengkulu Province. Nur et al. (2012) suggested that the elasticity of the population against rice consumption was much higher than the elasticity of the price of rice, the price of wheat, the rice production and the income.
The results of the calculation of rice adequacy are presented in Table 3.
Table 3 - Rice sufficiency in Bengkulu Province, 2010-2015
Sufficiency (kg)_Sufficiency ahead (Months)
No. Years without the role with the role without the role with the role
of BULOG of BULOG of BULOG of BULOG
1. 2010 91,226.79 86,635.26 5.32 5.05
2. 2011 92,978.94 99,378.30 5.69 6.08
3. 2012 144,981.61 139,161.33 9.18 8.81
4. 2013 165,074.16 171,112.74 10.26 10.64
5. 2014 146,102.35 144,382.60 8.99 8.89
6. 2015 133,730.46 132,750.61 8.06 8.01
The data in Tabel 3 indicate that the rice sufficiency in Bengkulu Province is in the safe category. The rice availability from the domestic rice production and the changes in the stock of BULOG can meet the needs of the population of Bengkulu Province with safe category. The surplus of rice in Bengkulu Province can meet the needs of rice for 5 to 10 months ahead. This is consistent with the Map of Food Resilience and Food Vulnerability (Food Security Council, 2015) which states that Bengkulu Province is in the category of high surplus. These findings refute the statement of Romdhon (2013) which states that Bengkulu Province experiences a deficit in rice, in which domestic rice production meets only 30.39 percent of the need of rice.
The results of the calculation of rice adequacy in the regencies / the municipalities of the availability from the domestic rice production in Bengkulu Province are presented in Table 4.
Table 4 - Rice Sufficiency in Bengkulu Province by the Regencies/Municipalities, 2010-2015
Regency/ _Years
INU. Municipality 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1. Bengkulu South 19,659 22,077 29,492 25,146 34,858 34,900
2. Rejang Lebong 11,408 14,284 20,143 30,317 27,002 21,800
3. North Bengkulu 18,274 14,411 24,884 22,533 31,674 11,875
4. Kaur 9,558 5,928 17,285 16,706 11,269 17,619
5. Seluma 25,118 19,029 29,970 28,856 17,090 14,493
6. Mukomuko 4,041 14,074 8,061 23,029 11,961 28,209
7. Lebong 18,637 15,459 18,183 17,010 15,371 18,018
8. Kepahiang 3,964 9,274 13,886 17,157 16,197 13,396
9. Central Bengkulu 11,236 8,170 10,880 9,188 8,752 6,744
10. Bengkulu City -30,668 -29,726 -27,802 -24,868 -28,071 -33,323
The data in Table 4 show that nine regencies in Bengkulu Province are in surplus of rice in which the availability of per capita is higher than the actual per capita consumption, therefore the sufficiecy of rice is in the category of safe and is given a purple color. The only area that experiences a deficit in rice in Bengkulu Province is the City of Bengkulu. The availability of rice from the domestic rice production in Bengkulu City is only 11-32 kg per capita, far below the consumption of food-insecure households in the amount of 80.30 kg per capita. Therefore, the rice sufficiency of Bengkulu City is categorized as severe and is colored red.
An analysis of monthly rice sufficiency is performed to see if the supply of rice from the domestic rice production and the changes in the stock of BULOG of the Regional Division of Bengkulu can meet the needs of rice consumption of the population of Bengkulu Province every month. The monthly availability of rice from the domestic rice production and the changes in the stock of BULOG are presented in Table 5.
Table 5 - The Monthly Rice Availability in Bengkulu Province, 2010-2015 (Ton)
No. Years Availability Months Averages
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1. 2010 Production 23,141 21,377 37,536 27,161 18,362 19,431 24,111 31,289 18,462 17,431 26,032 32,860 24,766
BULOG stock 423 1,026 -600 17 1,560 450 -864 -2,481 601 -1,646 -2,321 -633 -372
Total 22,718 20,351 38,136 27,144 16,802 18,981 24,975 33,770 17,862 19,077 28,353 33,493 25,139
2. 2011 Production 15,964 20,517 30,298 42,465 21,916 33,297 23,479 16,894 24,659 20,560 28,366 10,544 24,080
BULOG stock 3233 -1,240 -540 2,617 5,228 -97 -1,027 -2,315 -1,558 1,438 -511 1,000 519
Total 12,731 21,757 30,838 39,848 16,689 33,394 24,505 19,209 26,217 19,121 28,877 9,545 23,561
3. 2012 Production 17,622 28,491 54,528 43,308 28,362 23,633 26,171 28,866 20,757 21,664 25,159 16,032 27,883
BULOG stock 592 1,235 -740 -2,466 1,470 -246 90 -392 -3,223 2,633 -2,201 -2,416 -472
Total 17,030 27,256 55,268 45,774 26,892 23,878 26,080 29,258 23,980 19,031 27,360 18,447 28,355
4. 2013 Production 21,769 29,014 68,086 43,487 29,219 24,270 24,624 19,120 27,764 35,043 21,458 14,268 29,844
BULOG stock 4,889 604 -1,843 -3,063 4,753 -265 -1,163 1,676 -666 -1,021 -600 2,575 490
Total 16,880 28,410 69,929 46,550 24,466 24,535 25,787 17,444 28,430 36,064 22,058 11,693 29,354
5. 2014 Production 19,627 35,690 62,221 28,011 17,582 29,669 23,655 19,351 38,245 35,285 19,234 12,507 28,423
BULOG stock 2,770 -354 -3,299 2,040 -20 -3,002 -551 -606 -1,525 4,146 -227 -1,047 -140
Total 16,857 36,044 65,520 25,971 17,602 32,671 24,205 19,957 39,770 31,139 19,461 13,555 28,563
6. 2015 Production 16,551 27,378 56,745 40,810 28,910 23,172 12,464 20,557 45,707 27,632 20,701 12,090 27,726
BULOG stock -1,655 265 -2,661 882 3,407 -209 -8 499 -196 -1,269 -3,254 3,244 -80
Total 18,207 27,113 59,406 39,928 25,502 23,381 12,472 20,058 45,903 28,901 23,955 8,846 27,806
Production 19,112 27,078 51,569 37,540 24,059 25,579 22,417 22,680 29,266 26,269 23,492 16,383 27,120
Averages BULOG stock 1,709 256 -1,614 4 2,733 -561 -587 -603 -1,095 714 -1,519 454 -9
Total 17,404 26,822 53,183 37,536 21,326 26,140 23,004 23,283 30,360 25,555 25,011 15,930 27,130
The data in Table 5 show that the minimum rice availability is 10,544 tonnes of rice which occurred in December 2011 and the maximum is 68,086 tonnes which occurred in March 2013. The average availability is 27,120 tonnes. The provision of rice from the stock of BULOG of the Regional Division of Bengkulu does not function properly. Supposedly, BULOG should increase the stock of rice by buying the rice from the farmers during the harvest and release the rice stock at the time of scarcity. In adding and releasing stocks of rice, BULOG did not pay attention to the fluctuations of the availability of the domestic rice as shown in Figure 3.
70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jill Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figure 3 - The Monthly Availability of Rice from the Domestic Rice Production in Bengkulu Province,
2010-2015 (ton)
The data in Figure 3 show that the domestic rice production has a certain pattern, in which during March the production reaches its peak, then it declines and rises again in September. Then the production decreases again and reaches the lowest production in December. Thus, BULOG should increase the stock in March and September and release the stock from November to January. However, the opposite happens, BULOG releases the stock of rice at the harvest time, namely March and increases the stock of rice during the scarcity, namely in December.
Total monthly rice consumption of the population of Bengkulu Province in the period of 2010-2015 are presented in Table 6.
Table 6 - Monthly Rice Consumption in Bengkulu Province, 2010-2015 (ton)
No. Years Months Growth
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (%)
1. 2010 17,164 17,189 17,215 17,240 17,266 17,291 17,317 17,342 17,368 17,394 17,420 17,445 0.148
2. 2011 16,332 16,355 16,379 16,403 16,427 16,451 16,474 16,498 16,522 16,546 16,570 16,594 0.145
3. 2012 15,801 15,823 15,846 15,868 15,891 15,913 15,936 15,959 15,981 16,004 16,027 16,049 0.142
4. 2013 16,087 16,110 16,132 16,154 16,177 16,199 16,222 16,244 16,267 16,289 16,312 16,334 0.139
5. 2014 16,248 16,270 16,292 16,314 16,336 16,358 16,380 16,402 16,425 16,447 16,469 16,491 0.135
6. 2015 16,582 16,604 16,626 16,648 16,670 16,692 16,714 16,736 16,758 16,780 16,802 16,824 0.132
The data in Tabel 6 show that the amount of rice consumption increases each month. The increase of the amount of consumption depends on the amount of rice consumption per capita and the population growth.
The results of the calculation of rice adequacy from the domestic rice production without the role of BULOG are presented in Table 7.
Table 7.Monthly Rice Sufficiency in Bengkulu Province Through the Availability of the Domestic Rice
Production Without the Role of BULOG, 2010-2015
No. Years Months
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1. 2010 5,977 4,188 20,321 9,921 1,097 2,140 6,794 13,946 1,094 37 8,613 15,415
2. 2011 -367 4,162 13,919 26,062 5,490 16,847 7,004 396 8,136 4,014 11,795 -6,050
3. 2012 1,821 12,668 38,682 27,439 12,471 7,720 10,235 12,908 4,776 5,660 9,132 -18
4. 2013 5,682 12,905 51,954 27,332 13,043 8,071 8,402 2,876 11,497 18,754 5,146 -2,067
5. 2014 3,379 19,420 45,929 11,697 1,246 13,311 7,275 2,949 21,820 18,838 2,765 -3,984
6. 2015 -31 10,774 40,119 24,162 12,240 6,480 -4,250 3,821 28,949 10,852 3,899 -4,734
The data in Table 7 show that the frequency of the deficit in the period of 2010 to 2015 is only 8 months, in which 3 months of them are in the healthy category (green), 1 month is in the crisis category (yellow) and 4 months are in the severe category (red). The deficit frequently occurs in December. The most frequent deficits occurred in 2015.
The results of the calculation of rice adequacy originating from the availability of the domestic rice production with the role of BULOG are presented in Table 8.
Table 8 - Monthly Rice Sufficiency in Bengkulu Province Through the Availability of the Domestic Rice
Production with the Role of BULOG, 2010-2015
No. Tahun Bulan
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1. 2010 5,554 3,162 20,921 9,904 -464 1,690 7,658 16,428 494 1,683 10,934 16,048
2. 2011 -3,601 5,401 14,459 23,445 262 16,943 8,031 2,710 9,695 2,575 12,307 1-7,050
3. 2012 1,229 11,433 39,423 29,906 11,001 7,965 10,144 13,300 7,999 3,027 11,334 2,398
4. 2013 792 12,301 53,797 30,395 8,290 8,336 9,565 1,200 12,163 19,775 5,746 1-4,642
5. 2014 609 19,774 49,228 9,657 1,266 16,313 7,825 3,554 23,345 14,692 2,992 -2,937
6. 2015 1,624 10,509 42,780 23,280 8,832 6,689 -4,242 | 3,323 29,145 12,121 7,153 1-7,978
The data in Table 8 reveal that only after the intervention of government, namely through BULOG of the Regional Division of Bengkulu, there are 7 months of deficit frequency, namely 1 month in the healthy category, two months in the crisis category, and 4 months in the severe category.
In terms of quantity, the government intervention caused the frequency of deficits to decrease from 8 to 7 months. But in terms of quality, the government intervention does not significantly affect the sufficiency of rice in the Province of Bengkulu.
Table 9 - The Monthly Rice Sufficiency of the Population of Bengkulu Province by Regency/Municipality, 2010-2016
No.
Regency/ Municipality
Months
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug_Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
South Selatan
2010 2,400 1,095 6,781 2,938 283 -162 1,771 2,025 -121 102 1,923 523
2011 -1,091 928 5,847 8,551 1,063 -545 -1,212 -1,158 2,355 1,833 5,490 -77
2012 -1,177 -1,094 7,405 15,032 1,287 -1,229 -1,179 -313 1,212 7,631 2,838 -1,007
2013 -1,320 -154 10,820 6,126 261 -1,188 -793 -819 4,591 4,965 2,542 30
2014 -416 493 15,369 3,355 -475 -744 -1,333 -1,191 4,662 12,509 3,264 -712
2015 Rejang Lebong -1,260 1,039 14,700 8,411 -1,336 -1,023 -1,323 -443 3,841 13,242 255 -1,286
2010 2011 2012
2013
2014
2015
North Bengkulu 2010 2011 2012
2013
2014
2015 Kaur 2010 2011 2012
2013
2014
2015 Seluma 2010 2011 2012
2013
2014
2015
Mukomuko 2010
-414
863
613
7,991
1,032
879
3,989
-222
2,085
1,646
3,612
4,056
1,322
1,953
-177
141
1,346
2,871
2,591 1,885 2,776
-1,595
-957
-1,317
-425
-88 137 2,579 4,630
5.381 3,075
2,018 2,045 4,990 1,805 3,398 1,181
1,109 978 3,371 91
3,667 4,901
3.382 790 6,093 8,759 5,745 5,409
-452
957 56
1,038 5,230 5,718 5,738
3,148 5,392 2,978 6,035 5,152 831
2,989
-63
9,288
9,890
2,826
7,902
4,746 1,259 15,260 14,387 7,483 6,628
446
1,974
785
2,550
3,129
3,017
1,613 4,586 2,915 842 1,342 212
2,482 1,024 4,215 4,062 1,979 2,136
2,997 1,457 4,755 5,866 1,788 4,061
1,195
768
2,567
1,507
1,591
1,561
2,494 1,220 2,996 1,515 1,392 -179
1,939 1,254 610 -377 3,768 2,028
2,080
153
1,211
-680 -829 -1,562
918 -13 | -243
-457
1,492
604
1,427
-179
2,298
1,824
-834 -746
-63 2,004
880
597
1,609
1,078
2,991
6,860
-400
901 228
244
2,515 292 410 3,360 2,466 1,821
115
3,110
2,553
522
1,139
3,373
-455 862 56
1,569 1,709 1,733
167
2,911
229
6,652
2,445
1,734
-473
-596
1,143
1,768
1,399
52
394
-368
670 48
-908 -1,007 -247 -877
-787 -844 -686 -465
-69
-347
-39
2,464 3,474
727
-1,503 -371 454 13
-1,361 -830 -948 -1,647
94
3,011 283
-789
-1,396
-1,647
1,116 -1,015 -867
-63
2011 -1,283 -130 1,293 4,365 731 888
2012 -791 -1,145 -1,086 77 3,916 -921
2013 1,122 -664 238 3,330 7,135 4,332
2014 -483 2,177 3,444 -1,223 -1,535 -1,538
2015
-1,388 -529
3,173
3,300
-121
Lebong 2010 -648 -226 306 10 1,379 955
2011 -569 -392 -99 3,684 582 11,826
2012 514 286 -525 -742 298 6,919
2013 -166 -587 -515 -780 4,583 8,995
2014 -792 -892 -733 -81 1,206 13,918
2015 -966 -958 -422 2,506 10,634 11,491
441 106 2,867 3,422 656 1,264
3,374 4,350 7,857 6,996 5,468 47
1.853 852 239 593
2,715
4.854 7,026 2,064 2,601 2,898
2,298
-630
-1,198
-940
2,545 361
4,310
-125
2,244
1,603
994
897
1,034
1,317 -10 951 1,311 5,683 4,629
34
1,490
334
2,979
7,233
13,619
-69
-477 -1,034
1,295 2,288 1,094 4,205 3,943 1,718
626 -548 3,020 131 11 -1
1,139 258
2,357 1,700 1,590 24
1,889 -30
399
-1,127
1,512
766
1,759
471
1,101
-201 1,450 862 -608
413 1,112
-780
-652 -659
1,121 -199 800
1,222 -206
252 -154 -787
6,279
-1,336
864 -266
-1,495
-1,484 -495 -1,568 -1,651
3,434 1,489 934
1,994
-926
2,637
486
1,825 5,316
-957
5,255
937
-522
-823
-870 -599 -854 -357 -793
-851 -638 -459
-106
-881
-551 -265 -618 -870 -934
-791 -269 -614 -960 -974
Kepahiang
Central Bengkulu
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
878 389
-501
974 1,443 1,692 1,118 426 2,192
3 -521 2,631
1,399 587 3,588 242 -237 2,554
1,443 2,498 1,425 3,552 2,486 1,713
1,082
492
3,466
170
-75
755
1,068 10
1,377 -163 1,297 -186
1,104 1,642 622 696 -121 -501
909 32 -119 1,175
-327 -306
995 103 237 1,022 129 1,986
439
93
232
703 285 1,469
90
-32
10.
-1,184
-1,604
-423
-1,633
-1,495
-395 1,822 1,328 2,253 6,027 1-1,246 -578 5,224 1,167
-637 -1,001
2010 -656 -540 972 519 -953 519 141 214 940 655 1,174 899
2011 -371 391 1,306 422 1,881 937 611 26 964 716 1,685 636
2012 1,368 59 2,365 929 685 1,470 351 991 530 1,938 909 2217
2013 826 2,484 2,886 1,463 1,090 1,676 556 816 1,990 470 1,980 857
2014 1,345 1,564 3,428 845 1,005 1,408 897 308 1,565 3,267 537 -39
2015 -44 -83 138 -34 536 580 1,028 2,577 2,024 1,678 2,552 2382
-276
306 -420 | 649
-553 302 -47
-707 1,671 -328
2010 -3,060 -3,084 -2,137 -1,513 -2,644 -2,816 -2,883 -3,051 -1,537 -2,388 -3,116 -2878
2011 -1,919 -2,277 -2,192 -2,499 -2,965 -2,962 -2,963 -1,869 -2,111 -2,424 -2,933 -3033
2012 -2,890 -2,896 -233 -1,951 -1,636 -2,823 -2,884 -2,208 -2,101 -2,760 -2,891 -2933
2013 -2,966 -2,938 353 322 -2,478 -2,886 -3,003 -3,009 -2,627 -695 -2,374 -2971
2014 -2,708 -2,701 -345 -1,923 -2,987 -3,051 -3,057 -2,927 -840 -2,208 -2,645 -3085
2015 -3,105 -3,024 -2,218 -1,032 -3,093 -3,104 -3,133 -3,098 -2,498 -3,096 -3,146 -3173
Indeed, BULOG managed to eliminate the rice deficit which occurred in December 2012 and January 2015 and reduce the degree of deficit of rice in December 2014 which was originally severe turned into a crisis by releasing the stock of rice. However, BULOG mistakenly increased the stock of rice, so that in May 2010, month of rice deficit occurred, although it was still in the healthy category, then it aggravated the degree of deficit that
occurred in January of 2011, which originally was in a healthy category turned into a crisis category, and in December 2013 from the category of crisis turned into a severe category.
The monthly rice sufficiency in the regencies/municipalities can be a guideline for BULOG in making a purchase and distributing the rice stock. The monthly sufficiency of rice of Bengkulu Province in the regencies/municipalities are presented in Table 9.
The data in Table 9 show that the city of Bengkulu always experiences a deficit of rice with severe category (red). The regency which experiences most deficits is Lebong Regency. Therefore, the issue of rice insufficiency for the population of Bengkulu and Lebong Regency really need to be heeded by BULOG compared to other regions. BULOG can purchase rice in surplus areas, such as Rejang Lebong, Bengkulu Utara, Kepahiang and Central Bengkulu. The right time to make a purchase is in March, April, May, and September. Whereas the time to be on alert and to release the rice stock is January, June and December.
CONCLUSION
Bengkulu Province is in surplus of rice. The domestic rice production and the changes in the stock of BULOG of Regional Division of Bengkulu can meet the needs of the rice consumption of the people of Bengkulu. All of the regencies in Bengkulu are in surplus of rice except Bengkulu City that is in deficit condition with the category of severe (red). The monthly rice supply is unstable, consequently in January, July, and December rice deficit occurs. The deficit in rice in Bengkulu Province most frequently occurs in December.
The role of BULOG Regional Division in Bengkulu does not have much effect on the sufficiency of rice in Bengkulu.
IMPLICATION
BULOG Regional Division in Bengkulu should buy rice in Rejang Lebong Regency, North Bengkulu, Kepahiang, and Central Bengkulu, in March, April, May, and September. BULOG should be on the alert for distributing the stock of rice in the City of Bengkulu and Rejang Lebong Regency in January, June and December.
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