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Секция «Актуальные на учные проблемы в мире (глазами молодьш исследователей)»
УДК 338
ПРОБЛЕМА НЕФТЯНОЙ ИГЛЫ В РОССИИ
А. А. Гостев
Руководитель по иностранному языку - Е. А. Астапенко
Сибирский государственный аэрокосмический университет имени академика М. Ф. Решетнева
Российская Федерация, 660037, г. Красноярск, просп. им. газ. «Красноярский рабочий», 31
Проводится анализ ситуации в российской экономике, её зависимость от сырья, на чём основывается цена на сырьё, возможные последствия сырьевой ориентации экономики и решений проблем, созданный топливным кризисом.
Ключевые слова: нефть, сырьё, таможня, инновации.
THE PROBLEM OF THE OIL NEEDLE IN RUSSIA
A. А. Gostev Foreign Language Supervisor - E. A. Astapenko
Reshetnev Siberian State Aerospace University 31, Krasnoyarsky Rabochy Av., Krasnoyarsk, 660037, Russian Federation
The research analyses the situation in Russia's economy, its dependence on raw materials, what is the price on raw materials based on, possible consequences and outcomes of material based economy and solutions to problems created by the oil crisis.
Keywords: oil, raw materials, customs, innovations.
The oil needle, also known as the resource curse, refers to the paradox that countries and regions with an abundance of natural resources, specifically non-renewable resources like minerals and fuels, tend to have less economic growth and worse development outcomes than countries with fewer natural resources or no natural resources at all.
This problem is especially relevant to Russia because its economy is oriented on selling raw materials. Furthermore, Russia is the biggest source and supplier of raw materials in global division of labor. Russia's dependence on raw materials is only emphasized by the fact that an export duty is set on oil - a measure that the World Trade Organization demands to abolish. Other protective measures are set in regard to raw materials: only a small part of customs stations are authorized to carry out customs control of oil, wood and other resources.
Export of minerals (mostly oil and gas) is the main source of Russia's revenue. At least 57 % of Russia's GDP is dependent on oil [1]. That is why the two-fold reduction of prices on oil was followed by reduction of rubles exchange rate and income to Russia's budget by approximately the same amount [2].
What could the price on oil depend on? The price on oil is determined by economical and political factors. We cannot fully predict the scale of the effects, but the price on oil usually depends on discovering new oil fields, armed conflicts in the areas that are rich with raw materials, the general political situation in the world and even actions of terrorist groups. The last factor is especially relevant at the moment, because the reduction of price on oil was partially caused by actions of ISIS in form of price dumping, bribing and smuggling.
What consequences the oil needle might have? Losing the ability to compete with others on world markets as well as import technologies and goods without investments may make Russia a "failed state" [2]. High prices on oil might create a paradox, in which a fast price increase would drastically increase the state's revenue and cover any expenses on developing and enhancement of economics, but no changes would follow. As a result, domestic production is reduced orcompletely absent. The prices for equipment required for producing refining oil are also increased because of ruble's exchange rates. For example, by the end of 2015, "Rosneft" will have spent 21,9 billions of euros on technical resources and services [3].
Актуальные проблемы авиации и космонавтики - 2016. Том 2
The most adverse effect may be the negative influence on development of other sectors of economics. This makes the state's economy extremely vulnerable. When the state concentrates its resources on a single branch of its economy, the damaged caused by crisis is measured by billions or even trillions of rubles. Russia exports military equipment, space technologies, agricultural goods and more, but the revenue provided by them is insignificant in the light of trading raw materials. Nevertheless, cheap oil inevitably makes states to develop new political and economical reforms. So what can Russia do to improve the situation?
One of the most effective measures that is working right now is the export customs duty on oil. It increases the state's revenue and companies that trade oil get the return of VAT, but with ruble's exchange rates and prices on oil becoming worse, this measure proves to be insufficient, and that's why Russia is planning to convert to a new way of development.
Today, Russia is planning to develop its economy by innovations. It is unknown what innovations are planned to be done, but we can safely assume that they will develop domestic production and attract foreign investments. In its turn, this will allow Russia to improve the quality and quantity of its export in long term, and, possibly, decrease the dependence on raw materials by a large margin and let it exist not as the main source of income, but as a source of competitive and affordable goods.
Nowadays, Russia is just planning to restructure its economy, and it's nearly impossible to predict what results it will bring or whether they will be done at all. Even if these plans are brought to life, this might not be a guarantee of any improvement for Russia. Nevertheless, diversifying the resources and developing other branches of economy than raw materials will eliminate any probability of a colossal lack of funds in the state's budget. It will also develop the country's position in the global economics and politics.
References
1. "Just an oil and gas company": how much Russia's economy depends on oil [Electronic resource]. 2015. URL: http://carnegie.ru/2015/08/25/ru-61056/ijqa (date of visit: 28.11.2015).
2. Is dependence on oil in Russia increases or decreases? [Electronic resource]. 2015. URL: http://thequestion.ru/questions/43513/uvelichivaetsya-ili-umenshaetsya-zavisimost-rossii-ot-nefti (date of visit: 27.11.2015).
3. The oil needle: economic drug or economic panacea? [Electronic resource]. 2015. URL: http://lenta.ru/columns/2015/10/23/petroleum/ (date of visit: 25.11.2015).
© Гостев А. А., 2016
