CC BY
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UDC 334.723.2.1.2.43
DOI 10.1555/2409-3203-2017-0-12-136-141
THE DEPENDENCE OF THE BUDGET RUSSIA ON COMMODITY EXPORTS
Sun Hui
Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences Xinjiang University
China, Urumqi Imaginova Emilia A. Xinjiang University China, Urumqi
Annotation: This article discusses the problem of dependence of the Russia economy on world commodity prices and the identification of ways to solve this problem.
Keywords: a country's economy, dependence on raw materials, development of Russia's economy.
The modern development of Russia's economy is based on the strategy of export-raw material orientation. Such an economic strategy as a whole has led to success in the development of the Russian economy. It is possible to estimate indicators such as the high rate of development of the economic sphere in the Russian Federation. Growth rates were quite high, due to the development of the fuel and energy sector. In the first place - is the oil and gas industry, which are associated with the extraction and processing of raw materials export abroad, and of course, with their use.
Russia's GDP from 1992 to 1998 decreased by 39.6% and, therefore, higher oil and gas prices in the 2000s led to an increase in income from their exports, which made a significant chance to resolve the most important problems at that time, namely, , improving the living standards of citizens, the expansion of social support, increased investment in infrastructure and promoting the development of Russian business. And thanks to the price increase of oil and gas resources in the world market created conditions for solving these problems. Since 2000, increased from 1800 to 14,100 dollars in 2012 per capita GDP. But at the same time a positive impact on our economy gradually declined, and even throughout the period of increased risks of dependence of the domestic economy of fuel and energy complex.
The share of extractive industries and part of commodity exports low degree of processing in the total number of export is extremely high. This leads to high dependency as national income, and revenues from the current price of raw materials on the world market. Since world prices for raw materials are characterized by very high volatility, this leads to instability of Russia's GDP and government revenues, and may serve as a major obstacle to achieving long-term sustainable economic growth.
Russia is in second place in terms of production of natural gas and the third largest oil producer in the world. Russian oil and gas revenues constitute about 50% of the income of the federal budget, and about 68% of total exports (according to the state, for 2015 according to PFC Energy) (Sadykov E.TS 2014, s.602).
2006 2007 2003
Picture 1. Comparison of sources of income in 2006 - 2015 years.
Figure 1 shows a comparison of the sources of income of the Russian budget, from which it can be concluded that the oil and gas sector accounts for almost 50% of the total income, and in 2012, 2013 and 2014 do not exceed the oil and gas. It should also be noted that the income of Russian oil export exceeds by more than four times the revenues from gas exports. Therefore, oil prices are the main factor that determines the stability of the Russian currency. From this it appears that any significant decline in international oil prices will inevitably affect Russian economic growth in the GDP in the state budget, balance of payments, and even on the exchange rate of the ruble. In Figure 2 you can see the dependence of the state budget from oil prices.
This is not a positive trend, as the current crisis in 2014 clearly showed that the slack of the Russian energy commodity market. If we compare the first and the second picture, then obviously there is a link between the world price of oil and domestic oil and gas revenues and, accordingly, the completion of the state budget.
Picture 2. Comparative analysis of the Russian budget revenues and oil prices.
This dependence led to a rise in prices by an average of 35% -40%, the ruble has fallen almost in half, GDP fell in nominal terms, the dollar by about 40%. In consequence of this, Russia can keep up with the developed countries, loss of competitiveness of their products in foreign markets.
Such a one-sided economic policy leads to so called "Dutch disease", the essence of which is that the the rapid growth of exports, in this case oil and gas sector, leading to an increase in inflation and unemployment, a drop in manufacturing exports and income growth (Dzinter NV, Sharafutdinova JR, 2015, p.177).
At the same time there is a foreign currency inflow from the sale of raw materials, and it greatly increases the real rate of the national currency, which ultimately helps to increase prices for domestic goods non-primary sectors of the economy and reduces their competitiveness in relation to imported products.
However, the Russian oil refining industry is currently implemented great number of projects undertaken multi-billion dollar investment, that, despite the change in the economic situation has allowed the leading Russian oil companies to produce fuel that meets modern environmental and performance standards. At the same time it is increasing the share of exports of high-quality diesel fuel and other products with high added value. In Russia in 2014 it processed about 289 million. M. Of oil, which is 5.2% more than in 2013, which is the highest figure in the recent history of Russia.
350
300
2005 2006 2007 200Е 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Picture 3. The dynamics of oil refining in Russia, 2005 - 2014 years.
It is worth noting that the volume of oil refining in recent years grew faster than the volume of its production, this was due to the fact that significantly increased the proportion of processed oil: if in 2010 it amounted to 49.2% of the produced oil, then in 2014 - almost 55%.
At the end of 2014 from 165.3 million tons of Russian oil products were exported, and it is also time high in recent years. Growth Export of oil products in 2014 exceeded the growth of their production, which has led to an increase in the share of exports in total production.
270
2005 2006 2007 200Ё 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Picture 4. Dynamics of export of oil products from Russia, 2005 - 2014 years.
In addition, the increase in exports of petroleum products came on the background a decrease in crude oil exports, and this, experts say, indicates a positive trend replacing the export of raw materials for the products of the processing of higher value-added products.
100%
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
70 673 70 68,5
69,5 62.9 66.9 67,7
8,5 7,5 7,9 6,9
2010
2013
2014
2015
■ п ро- во бензина ■ Авиакероси и ■ п ро- во диаел ьи ого топ л н ва ■ про-во маз;та
Picture 5. Production of oil products
As we can see in Figure No. 5, production increases, but too slowly. For example, gasoline exports amounted to 4.6 million tons. In 2009. The volume of crude oil exports in 2014 amounted to about 220 million tons., And in 2009 was about 250 million tons. From this we can conclude that the problem remains, and it is solved very slowly.
300 250 200 150 100 so 0
■ Экспорт сирой нефти ■ Экспорт нефтепродуктов
Picture 6. The volume of exports of oil and oil products from Russia, million tons
Fuel and energy industry characterizes the effect on state and further development of the Russian economy, providing about a third of total industrial production and revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation, one quarter of GDP, about half of the federal budget income, exports and foreign exchange earnings. Given the high level of oil and gas, and mixed trends in prices for this product, we can say that economic growth is realized at the expense of energy exports to Russia.
Because of this, it is necessary to adopt policies to reduce the economy's dependence on oil and gas sector, which ultimately should lead to the diversification of the economy. This requires comprehensive efforts, such as ensuring macroeconomic stability, including low inflation, and clear rules of change of the national currency, promote competition, encourage the development of high value-added industries, innovation support institutions. Particular attention should be given to agricultural production to ensure food security of the country (EV Frolova, 2015). This policy would change the structure of the economy is not the result of state expansion
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
in certain sectors and to the evolution of the development of the market potential of new industries. We can not and weaken efforts to develop oil and gas industry, but over time the share of fuel and energy sector in the structure of the economy will decrease.
Literature:
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modern Russia. Human capital. 2012. №1 (37). S.55-59.
2. Dzinter NV, Sharafutdinova JR Structural analysis programs
modernization of modern Russian economy // Youth Gazette
Ufa State Aviation Technical University, 2015. -
Number 1 - S. 176-181.
3. Sadykov E.TS. Mineral and raw material complex of the region: the state
and problems of development // Modern problems of science and education, 2014. - №
6. - S. 602.
4. Savinkov VI Culture - determining factor in the development of the country and society. Materials Athanasian readings. 2014. № 1. p.106 - 112.
5. EV Frolova Infrastructure development restrictions
agricultural production in the Russian Federation. In: The institutional and infrastructural aspects of the development of different economic systems. Collection of articles of the International scientific-practical conference. Editor: Sukiasyan Asatur Albertovich. 2015. pp 211-213.
