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https://doi.org/10.29013/ESR-19-11.12-60-63
Davidovsky Anatoly Grigorievich, Associate Professor, the Faculty of Computer Engineering Belarussian State University of Informatics and Radioelectronic,
E-mail: [email protected]
THE PROBLEM OF PREVENTIVE MANAGEMENT OF TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS IN THE INDUSTRY 4.0
Abstract. In this article the problem of risks of high-tech development in condition the Industry 4.0 was viewed. Has been presented the backgrounds of information and analytical systems for preventive management of the Industry 4.0 technological risks.
Keywords: Industry 4.0, technological risks, preventive management.
Introduction
The Fourth Industrial Revolution (the Industry 4.0) is the next stage of revolutionary transformations in the Human History. Such revolutionary stages include the emergence of a system of religious beliefs that united large masses of people, the invention and distribution of money, the invention and distribution of printing, the first, second and third industrial revolutions, the spread of radio-electronic, network and digital technologies. In the context of the Industry 4.0, digital technologies, unmanned transport systems, robotic systems, such as robot consultants, blockchain technologies, biomechani-cal prostheses and exoskeletons, financial internet technologies, internet banking, artificial intelligent systems, intelligent cyber-physical systems of various scales and purposes, smart-house, smart-city, smart-plant, smart-road, intelligent decision support systems, digital biometrics and identity identification, technologies for aggregation and processing of large data streams Big Data, cloud computing technologies, cloud business platforms, cybersecurity systems, convergent bio-, nano-, information and cognitive technologies, entertainment and educational tools based on virtual and augmented reality technologies, additive 3D- and 4D-printing technologies, bioimplantable tools and systems for expanding the human capabilities, "Internet of things", "In-
ternet of everything", mind-machines for increasing the human cognitive potential, gerontological technologies for life extension, cryogenic technologies [1; 2]. At the same time the Industry 4.0 has led to the emergence of fundamentally new technological risks and their various combinations. In conditions of the Industry 4.0 it is important to ensure preventive management of technological risks.
In connection with above, the purpose of this study is to characterize the problem of high-technologies risks and substantiate information and analytical systems for preventive management of technological risks into the Industry 4.0.
Possible technological risks of the Industry 4.0
The Industry 4.0 includes many sources of new possible technological risks [3-5], such as:
- nuclear power and proliferation of military and dual-use nuclear technologies;
- technologies for access to space orbit, flights to the planets of the Solar system and beyond;
- technologies of deep space radio and optical communication;
- military technologies based on new physical principles;
- biotechnologies and their products, as well as genetically modified organisms;
- nanotechnology and its products;
- information technologies and their products;
- cognitive technologies for the creation ofhybrid intelligence and the expand of human capabilities;
- uncontrolled self-replicating convergent technologies, including nano-, bio-, informational and cognitive systems and its combinations;
- private control of human consciousness and behavior of individuals and social groups;
- non-human logic of management into the manufacturing, economic and social organization systems under control of global artificial intelligence;
- military cyber-physical, unmanned and smart systems of various scales and purposes;
- virtual and augmented reality technologies for manipulative and narcotic purposes;
- additive technologies of 3D- and 4D-printing for uncontrolled distribution and reproduction of psychotropic substances, drugs, weapons systems, including weapons of mass destruction;
- uncontrolled distribution of new agents that cause new forms of chemical and non-chemical dependencies;
- means and methods of modification of the human body and consciousness using products of micro-and nanoelectronics, genetic engineering, bi-onanocomposition materials;
- means and methods of creating and popularizing disinformation and destructive content in the Internet media environment;
- means and methods of software-technical and socio-engineering attacks on databases and knowledge bases that are critical for maintaining the stability of industrial and social systems;
- means and methods of technospheric and information cryptographic warfare for the interests of individuals, communities or corporations;
- disorganization and destabilization of socio-technical systems of different scales and levels of complexity.
The most important contribution into the formation of possible technological risks in the Industry 4.0 is made by the development ofWeb-based Internet platforms that provide the development of social
networks (Web 2.0), the possibility of teleconferencing, rapid exchange of large data streams, audio and video resources (Web 3.0), blockchain technology and the Internet of things (Web 4.0), intelligent assistants and remote technologies for expanding human intellectual capabilities (Web 5.0).
The risks of the Industry 4.0 innovative technologies may be prevented. As is well know, the most preventable risks are a risks that are easy to anticipate and that easy to manage. The management by risks of high-tech proliferation is possible only if the following conditions are met:
1) dangerous technologies that lead to risks are created only by peoples;
2) the localization and extent of the consequences of the risks of such high technologies are well known;
3) dangerous technological processes are not associated with benefits for peoples;
4) both the moment and the consequences of dangerous technological processes getting out of control are predictable;
5) the dangers of high-tech processes are easily recognized;
6) there is a resource of time to prevent hightech risks.
The problem of the loss of stability of social systems due to the technological and humanitarian imbalance of Human Civilization due to the disproportionate an acceleration of technological development remains difficult to predict. At the same time, there are a possibility of global high-tech wars with the use of weapons of mass destruction. Such wars can slow down or even stop the technological development of Human Civilization.
In addition, various combinations of the above-mentioned risks can provoke the degradation of the Human Civilization to the level of "sustainable development" with zero growth of the productive forces, progressive wear and tear of the material assets, a decline in the quality of life, aging and extinction of the population.
Innovative activity of high-tech manufacturing companies and enterprises in the context of the Industry 4.0 requires analysis and risk management at a mega-, macro-, meso- and micro levels. In addition, internal technological risk factors can be identified in the innovation activities of companies and enterprises in the context of the Industry 4.0. Such internal technological risk factors include:
- introduction of digital technologies in production;
- formation of new horizontal and vertical digital integrations between divisions of the industrial organization;
- errors in sociotechnical systems and processes of integration and functioning of innovative hightech industries and their clusters.
A micro-risks of innovative activity of hightech manufacturing companies and enterprises are related to the problems of integration of digital technologies between the main stakeholders, the need to create unified information technology platforms for interaction with suppliers, consumers and regulatory structures. A macro-risks are depended on the degree of digital transformation and states of human potential in the surrounding socio-technical environment. A macro-level of risks are formed by the macro-environment of the national economic conditions. A low innovation potential and export-raw material model of development of national economies are more important macro-risks into the Industry 4.0. A mega-level of risks are formed by conditions of transnational socio-cultural, socio-political and socio-economic environment [4; 5].
The backgrounds of the information and analytical systems for preventive management of technological risks in the Industry 4.0
Has been shown into scientific investigation, many modern methods and methods for monitoring, analysis and management of the technological risks do not correspond to the technological levels of the Industry 4.0. An attempts to monitor and ana-
lyze of the risks of individual high-tech processes do not provide systematic management of technological risks of innovative industries. An information uncertainty is an important reason for making of wrong decisions in the risk management of high-tech processes. In this regard, the development of information and analytical systems for managing technological risks of innovative industries in the context of the Industry 4.0 is relevant.
The architectural implementation of such information and analytical systems includes:
1) the block of formation of effective scenarios of information and analytical support and reliability of decisions on preventive management of technological risks;
2) block of information and analytical support for the activities of decision-makers;
3) block of ontological, probabilistic-entropy, fuzzy-cognitive and logical-probabilistic modeling using cognitive complex maps and Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN), method of analysis and prediction by precedents;
4) block of hardware and software on the platforms of online analytical processing (OLAP) and wiki technologies.
5) the block of situational training and intellectual training of decision-makers in situations of risk management of technological development in the conditions of the Industry 4.0.
The functional organization of such information-analytical systems is based on the use of Big Data, BBN, OLAP, data mining, search technologies in databases and knowledge bases based on the method of precedents, simulation modeling, scenario and situational analysis, ontological, fuzzy and cognitive, information-entropy and logical-probabilistic modeling, evolutionary calculations, genetic algorithms and artificial neural networks.
The conclusion
Thus, the Industry 4.0 has many new objective factors that present various possible technological risks with organizational and sociotechnical
aspects. Preventive management of these risks in sustainable technological development of the Hu-
the Industry 4.0 is a key condition for guaranteed man Civilization in the XXI Century.
References:
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