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Journal of Institutional Studies, 2020, 12(2), 149-160 DOI: 10.17835/2076-6297.2020.12.2.149-160
THE INFLUENCE OF GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS AND MULTICULTURALISM ON THE PERSONNEL SECURITY OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION
ZUZANA HORVÂTHOVÂ,
Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Metropolitan University Prague, Prague, Czech Republic, e-mail: zuzana.horvathova@mup.cz;
SVETLANA KALYUGINA,
Doctor of Economical Sciences, Professor, North-Caucasus Federal University, Stavropol, Russian Federation, e-mail: s.kalyugina@gmail.com;
ALEXANDER PIANOV,
Candidate of Sociological Sciences, Associate Professor, North-Caucasus Federal University, Russian Federation, e-mail: alexpya2006@yandex.ru
Citation: Horváthová, Z., Kalyugina, S., Pianov, A. (2020). The influence of geopolitical factors and multiculturalism on the personnel security of Russian Federation. Journal of Institutional Studies, 12(2), 149-160. DOI: 10.17835/2076-6297.2020.12.2.149-160
In general, one wouldprobably agree with the fact that geopolitical factors and multiculturalism both have a considerable influence on the personnel security. Factors such as the human mobility, the quality of human resources, internal and international migration, regional policies as well as the political and economic decisions of the central governments, or even the brain drain that involves the outflux of the highly-qualified specialists are all linked to the profound institutional changes that are taking place in our globalized and interconnected multicultural world. Moreover, personnel security is deeply linked to the national security which makes it very crucial for any country. Our paper focuses on the assessment of the specifics of personnel security in Russia and its vast regions. It shows the main trends and issues that are related to the personnel security in Russia and demonstrate the strength and weaknesses stemming from them. Moreover, we identify the factors influencing the personnel security in the country and give recommendations for its improvement. We provide a blueprint for the institutional research that sheds the light on these factors and helps to understand how they should be treated. Moreover, we provide some relevant and valuable recommendations regarding the substantiation of personnel policy directions at the federal, regional, and local levels. Our results might be of a special interest for regional and central policymakers, relevant stakeholders, and researchers.
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Keywords: geopolitics; personnel security; multiculturalism; human resources; institutional changes.
Acknowledgements: This paper was supported by a grant from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project No. 18-010-00732 A.
JEL: B52, J08, H84
ВЛИЯНИЕ ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКИХ ФАКТОРОВ И МУЛЬТИКУЛЬТУРНОСТИ НА КАДРОВУЮ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ
ХОРВАТОВА ЗУЗАНА,
доктор педагогических наук, младший профессор, Метрополитный Университет Прага, Прага, Чешская Республика, e-mail: zuzana.horvathova@mup.cz;
КАЛЮГИНА СВЕТЛАНА,
доктор экономических наук, профессор, Северо-Кавказский федеральный университет, Ставрополь, Российская Федерация, e-mail: s.kalyugina@gmail.com;
ПЬЯНОВ АЛЕКСАНДР,
кандидат социологических наук, доцент, Северо-Кавказский федеральный университет, г. Ставрополь, Российская Федерация, e-mail: alexpya2006@yandex.ru
Цитирование: Хорватова, З., Калюгина, С., Пьянов, А. (2020). Влияние геополитических факторов и мультикультурности на кадровую безопасность Российской Федерации // Journal of Institutional Studies, 12(2), 149-160. DOI: 10.17835/20766297.2020.12.2.149-160
В целом нельзя не согласиться с тем фактом, что геополитические факторы и мультикультурализм оказывают существенное влияние на кадровую безопасность. Такие факторы, как мобильность людей, качество человеческих ресурсов, внутренняя и международная миграция, региональная политика, а также политические и экономические решения центральных правительств или даже <<утечка мозгов», которая связана с оттоком высококвалифицированных специалистов, - все это связаны с глубокими институциональными изменениями, которые происходят в нашем глобализированном и взаимосвязанном мультикультурном мире. Более того, кадровую безопасность тесно связана с национальной безопасностью, что делает ее крайне важной для любой страны. Наша статья посвящена оценке специфики кадровую безопасность в России и ее обширных регионах. В нем показаны основные тенденции и
проблемы, связанные с кадровой безопасностью в России, а также продемонстрированы их сильные и слабые стороны. Более того, мы выявляем факторы, влияющие на кадровую безопасность в стране, и даем рекомендации по ее улучшению. Мы предоставляем своеобразный план для институциональных исследований, который анализирует эти факторы и помогает понять, как они должны рассматриваться. Кроме того, мы приводим некоторые актуальные и ценные рекомендации по обоснованию направлений кадровой политики на федеральном, региональном и местномуровнях. Наширезультаты могут представлять особый интерес для региональных и общегосударственных чиновников и политиков, а также соответствующих заинтересованных сторон и научных исследователей.
Ключевые слова: геополитика; кадровая безопасность; мультикультурализм; человеческие ресурсы; институциональные изменения
Благодарность: Данное исследование было выполнено при поддержке гранта Российского фонда фундаментальных исследований (РФФИ), проект № 18-010-00732 A.
Introduction
Under the current conditions of various geopolitical changes and the phenomenon of multiculturalism induced by digitalisation and globalization, the risks and threats to personnel security are increasing (Vilasi, 2017; Watters, Ward, Stuart, 2020). Given the widespread unification of the processes and consequences that are characteristic for the competition of many countries for the personnel potential and the human resources that belong to other countries, there is every reason here to talk about personnel globalization that is taking place right here, in the early 21st century (see e.g. Szymanski, Fitzsimmons, Danis, 2019; Zeibote, Volkova, Todorov, 2019; or Naro§, Simionescu, 2019). These processes that occurred in the last couple of decades effectively opened the possibility of attracting specialists from various countries and the concentration of unique personnel in breakthrough areas such as science and research, information technologies, biotechnologies, and medicine, just to give some examples.
One can see that today's world is going through the personnel globalisation (Babones, Aberg, 2019; Boussebaa, Faulconbridge, 2019). The chances of winning or securing more stable positions in this never-ending race are bigger for those countries and organization which would fundamentally change their philosophy and their attitudes towards a professional person or a qualified specialist. The subject of personnel policy which understands this point and goes along the path of creating competitive advantages for the labour force that makes a real change is now becoming increasingly important.
Furthermore, the dominant background in the formation of the current personnel security situation is the processes of globalization, regional disintegration and reintegration which are becoming more intense and significantly affect the creation of a new system of international relations that are based on the novel geopolitical order which might be based on the military power but also on energy security and power systems (see e.g. Zlyvko, Lisin, Rogalev, Kurdiukova, 2014; or Lisin, Shuvalova, Volkova, Strielkowski, 2018). This order emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the creation of the new system of global geopolitics in which several countries are now competing for the domination and the leading position in the world. Among those players are the United States, People's Republic of China, Russian Federation, India, Brazil, as well as the European Union (Flint, Zhu, 2019).
All of the above issues and concerns actualize the problem of ensuring national personnel security and make it more relevant. They also represent a very important and crucial issue for the Russian Federation, a country standing on the crossroads of political trends and
processes and in general balancing between the West and the East in a complex geopolitical game of the 21st century (Lisiakiewicz, 2018; Ko, Min, 2019).
Within the current context, it appears to be absolutely crucial to demonstrate to all the parties involved that the institutionalization of personnel security in the Russian Federation is possible through the development of a set of measures to prevent risks and dangers associated with the use of human resources, their labour and intellectual potential, which would significantly reduce any possible threats to human security and would also strengthen the system of ensuring and sustaining the national security of the Russian Federation (see Kalyugina Pyanov, Strielkowski, 2020).
The ability to solve this problem is due to the relevance of the study of technologies and mechanisms for the formation and implementation of the state human resources (HR) strategy, the feasibility of introducing innovative HR technologies in the state HR policy, and the need to increase the efficiency of ensuring personnel security in modern Russia.
The strategic goal of human security should be the development of the country's human potential as the most important intellectual and professional resource of society, ensuring the preservation of its integrity and high rates of socio-economic development, sustainable competitiveness in the international division of labour (see Chitsaz, Tajpour, Hosseini, Khorram, Zorrieh, 2019). All these are deeply influenced by such factors as multiculturalism and geopolitics.
Our paper is structured as follows: Section 2 provides a concise literature review. Section 3 outlines materials and methods and provisions for further research. Section 4 focuses on the major threats for the human resources in Russia and the implications for the personnel security. Section 5 briefly summarizes the results and provides concise discussions. Finally, section 6 concludes the paper by articulating and abridging overall conclusions and stipulating some relevant policy implications as well as suggestions for further research in this field for the follow-up investigations and studies.
An overview of the research field
Rapid growth of human potential in the sense of its use in strengthening the personnel security determines the quality of any country's development. One can say that it is also becoming the main focus of ensuring national security for many countries in general and for the global geopolitical players in particular. Countries such as the Russian Federation are exceptionally concerned with these issues and seek to understand and to improve the factors leading to the support and nourishment of the personnel security in the face of the new global challenges today's multicultural and digital world poses.
The modernization processes taking place in the Russian economy and aimed at maintaining the stability and sustainability of the socio-economic and political systems determine the need to ensure national security of the state, of which personnel security is an important component.
Personnel security is a relatively new concept and has been studied mainly at the micro level within the organization's management. However, the incompleteness of the processes of institutionalization of the state personnel policy creates real threats to the personnel security of modern Russia, which creates the need to identify the causes and conditions of their occurrence, as well as develop measures to prevent them. All of these can be analysed through the prism of views of Coase (1960) as a theory of a social cost. According to it, personnel security might induce some damage to the mere existence of state institutions and undermine the trust in the state power and authority.
In general, research and studies related to the personnel security began at the beginning of the 20th century as part of the sociology of management and management theory which investigated the problem of personnel security through the prism of the theory of enterprise management (see Koontz, 1961; Chiapello, Fairclough, 2002).
Later, personnel security was considered as an integral part of the national security system by the state. Studies of globalization processes were also carried out in the works of such foreign and domestic scientists. Furthermore, a wide range of problems of international migration relating to the problems of labour migration, the labour market, and security can be found in the works of many researchers (Castles, 2000; McGovern, 2007).
Understanding the social aspects of the multicultural environment is reflected in the works devoted to the general analysis of social changes, transformation of institutions and processes of modernization of society (see e.g. Zofcinová, Horváthová, Cajková, 2018).
The issue of institutional change that our study is based on was developed by the institutional economist Douglass North (see North 1981, 1990, 2005), who actively used elements of historical analysis in the transformation of institutions. He applied the interdisciplinary historical and economic approach to analyse the role of institutions in the economy. This led to the deeper understanding of the institutional structures within various social orders and was followed by Greif (2006) and Mokyr (2016). Furthermore, neo-institutional theory explains that organizations are shaped up based on the occurrences happening in their institutional environment and blend in in some period of time (see Martin, Currie, Weaver, Finn, McDonald, 2017; or Biesenthal, Clegg, Mahalingam, Sankaran, 2018).
As can be seen from the analysis of the degree of scientific development of the problem of human security, a very limited number of works is devoted to its study, according to which human security should be understood as a set of measures to prevent risks and dangers associated with human resources, their labour activity, and the use of their intellectual potential. At the same time, the methodology of forming a personnel safety management strategy has not been developed enough, a systematic approach to its implementation is not being implemented, innovative personnel technologies are not used in the implementation of the state personnel policy, there are no in-depth studies of the influence of geopolitical transformations and multicultural changes on the degree of personnel security of a country or region.
Materials and methods
The topic of our research is interdisciplinary in nature, thence it requires the application of a whole range of political science, sociological, economic and managerial scientific approaches and methods, the use of which allowed a comprehensive study of state personnel policy and personnel security. The fundamental methods used in this study are systemic, comparative historical, institutional, structural-functional, structural-logical, sociological, strategic analysis, economic-statistical and econometric research methods.
In general, this makes sense since in every study of personnel security, institutional and neo-institutional approaches, concepts of a human resource management methodology, a systematic approach, and a concrete historical approach are advisable. Hence, a multi-disciplinary approach to personnel security and the human resource policy is at place and would yield the best results.
In the course of this research, a complex of economic, sociological, political, demographic, sociocultural and managerial theoretical concepts was used. The application of these concepts and theories is envisaged to ensure a comprehensive study of the personnel security system. As for the tools for collecting and analysing empirical material, various methods of specific economic, sociological, demographic, political, and managerial studies are applied. Overall, the resulting study represents a comprehensive review of methods and pathways for further research as well as an institutional blueprint for the assessing and measuring the influence of geopolitical factors and multiculturalism on the personnel security of Russian Federation with a possibility of applying it for other countries.
Threats for the human resources in Russia
In today's global world there is a tough competition for leadership, which is based on the struggle for professionals. Currently, in order for a specialist to effectively interact with the techno sphere and society, hundreds of thousands of dollars must be invested in it. The level of human competence determines the level of competitiveness of a country.
Recently, Russia's human resources have been declining due to the lack of an effective human resources management system, which in turn creates threats to the country's human security. This problem is a poorly understood issue, which indicates the relevance and importance of its research, especially in the current situation, which characterized by political tension, manifested in the sanctions regime and the limited relations between Russia and individual European states: demographic problems and related to the reduction in the working-age population (by 1 million people annually between 2008 and 2015) and the aging of the national labour force (Russia has the 17th place in the world, and the proportion of older people is 19% of total population), which makes the country's economic development dependent on the influx of foreign labour to fill the labour market deficit, in addition, the outflow of highly qualified specialists continues, almost 1.5 million have left Russia for the last 10 years. Highly qualified specialists — those who are the generator of new ideas in industry, in the field of high technology; the complexity of building relationships in a multicultural environment between the country's population and immigrants who differ in a specific system of values, national traditions, and various religious views. In addition, we should not forget the issue of precarization that proceeds from the job instability and might lead to the serious distortions on the labour market (see Klimenko, Posukhova, 2018).
All of the above requires the development of a country's human security strategy, the protection of society and the state from threats and personnel risks, the prevention of brain drain, decisions on the reproduction and demand for the country's human potential (see Fursov, Krivokora, Strielkowski, 2018).
Figure 1 that follows shows the total unemployment in Russia and other global players in the geopolitics of the 21st century such as China, India, United States and the European Union (represented here by the Euro area countries and thus excluding, for example, Denmark, Czech Republic, or Poland).
14
Year
Russian Federation (RIJS) China (PRC) India (I1MD) United States (USA) Euro area (EU)
Fig. 1. Total unemployment in the selected global player countries, % of total labour force
Source: World Bank (2020).
One can see from Figure 1 that while Russia experienced the spikes in the unemployment in the times of the economic and financial crisis of the 1997—2000, the European Union experienced something similar a decade later in 2009—2014. The same tendency can be observed for the United States. All in all, this suggests that human potential and the labour force are experiencing ups and downs in a series of waves.
Another important issue that impacts the personnel security in Russia that cannot be neglected within the discussed content is the digitalization and the acceptance of e-services either in a form of e-government, or for other purposes (e.g. tourism, leisure, or social communication) (see Abrham, Wang, 2017). Many researchers demonstrated that the use of e-services might vary across countries or regions (see e.g. Chiabai, Platt, Strielkowski, 2014).
Digitalization can provide a major driving force for the geopolitical factors and multiculturalism and, as a result, lead to the impacts on the personnel security. It can be shown that this can achieved in a number of ways: First of all, digitalization gives some countries the comparative advantages in dealing with the others. Information officially became the oil of the 21st century and the Big Data became the new step in compiling and assessing data starting from 2010s. Second, digitalization enabled wide social interactions across countries and continents. Global travel became very easy and the sharing economy diminished international movement, housing and job seeking to a trivial task. Moreover, the widespread use of the digital technologies and Internet enabled the young people to deeper emerge themselves into foreign languages and cultures. Young Russians are not an exception — they watch the same films and TV series on Netflix or listen to the same music on Spotify and YouTube as their counterparts do in the United States, European Union, or Japan.
In general, it can be noted that countries that are going continue to lag behind the leaders in terms of quality of life and life expectancy and could risk becoming failed states. Their sovereignty will be largely illusory, as all important economic decisions are taken without their participation and without taking their interests into account. From this perspective, one of the major threats to modern Russia is that it could move to the status of an outsider country in the artificial intelligence (AI) race, complementing the export of crude oil with that of raw data, and the advanced technological processes and added value for more developed economies. In order to avoid this, Russia should invest heavily in digitalization of its economy and create resources, including human resources and personnel capable of turning the country into the digital superpower. It should be said that in comparison with many other countries, Russia is well-equipped with modern technologies. The Internet use is widespread, and the Internet itself is cheap and affordable both offered via mobile operators and via broadband. According to some estimates, Russia is one of the top 10 countries by the number of Internet users around the world (see Fig. 2).
Another option for activists is to support an international agreement that can realistically win the combined support of the major powers. Activists may have to postpone ambitions for a comprehensive ban on development or deployment, but a more incremental agreement could succeed: perhaps an AI code of conduct governing how states use their autonomous weapons.
Countries have a strong interest in developing a common set of rules or at least a mechanism for resolving diplomatic disputes caused by novel applications of new technologies. This can be shown using an example of the United States. Launched in 2017, the Future of Intelligence Act in the United States began this process but should be extended to asymmetric threats and included in the broader national security strategy and the National Defence Licensing Act. Such laws should also provide for an immediate review of the current tools with which the U.S. government must respond to an attack with advanced disinformation. Part of the review should include a report, both classified and unclassified, on investment in
AI research and development across the United States government and the willingness of various authorities to respond to future attacks.
Fig. 2. Top countries by the numbers of Internet users (millions of people) in 2019
Source: Statista (2020)
American technological and operational benefits in future battlefields, including urban warfare. So far, most of the commercial and defence investment in using AI to detect, analyse and combat misinformation has focused primarily on detecting and filtering out malicious content and blocking bots. In addition, such an approach is inherently limited as the speed of disinformation and propaganda spreads and the significant and often irreversible damage that disinformation causes can affect public opinion and legitimacy in urban military operations.
In the Russian Federation, the defence and security technology and unmanned military systems become the main focus of the artificial intelligence development. Another area is banking and finance with the Central Bank of Russia as the major player and innovator. Yet another example is Yandex, a Russian company that is involved in developing AI in transportation, voice assistance, and satellite navigation. All these players considerably influence the labour market in Russia and provide excellent training and dream jobs for the recent graduates and other job seekers.
Now, let us present our model that assesses the influence of geopolitical factors and multiculturalism on the personnel security of Russian Federation (see Fig. 3 that follows).
From Figure 3 one can see an array of seven main factors that influence on the on the personnel security of Russian Federation via geopolitical context and multiculturalism that follow from our own model built on the basis of the literature review and the study of the issues of personnel security in Russia. First of all, there is a need for identifying conditions for the personnel risk in the regions. Given the vast territory Russia has, this becomes a crucial factor. Second, there is necessity for articulating the problems of regional personnel differentiation. Given the huge disparities in specialization in the, say, south and north of the country, this is a very useful task. Third, there is a need to identify the pathways for the formation of a personnel security system in Russia. Various systematic shocks, either anticipated or non-expected might tip the frigid balance. Fourth, there should be a clear understanding of where the development of human resource is going. Given the recent economic and social trends, there might be a need for a slightly different approach to
professional orientation and education (see Horváthová, Cajková, 2018). Fifth, there should be created a system that would allow to map the impacts of the geopolitical changes on the human resources in Russia. Various political issues and scandals, as well as war conflicts and international pressure (e.g. in the forms of economic and political sanctions) might distort the way the human resources are managed and handled in the country. The HR specialists should take these changes and global issues into account in their daily work. Sixth, the impact of migration should also be considered. Migration, either regional, national, or international would always lead to the creation of the multicultural environment. Many young Russians leave the country to study and work abroad but also a considerable number of foreigners would like to live and work in Russia. Both processes mean risks and should be handled adequately. Finally, seventh, some sort of systematization of theoretical and methodological approaches should be reached. There is a need for a consensus and the roadmap that would be acceptable at all levels and by all the parties involved.
Fig. 3. The models of personnel security of Russian Federation Source: Own results
Overall, the main results of our empirical study consist in a systematic review of human security at the macro and mesoscale, the formation of the conceptual foundations of national human security; development of econometric models of migration processes for the conditions of Russia; identifying factors (geopolitical, institutional, migration, socio-economic, etc.) of personnel security in the Russian Federation; identifying the specifics of personnel security in Russia and its regions, taking into account specific personnel risks; systematization of geopolitical factors forming in new centres of international tension and forecasting their development trends; development of a system of indicators for assessing personnel security, justification of a system for monitoring personnel security and an algorithm for its implementation; the development of models for the development of human resources that ensure human security, a justification based on the modelling of key trends in personnel processes at the macro level; the development of modern tools for assessing personnel risks and personnel security; development of scenarios for the formation of a multicultural environment in the studied regions of the country; substantiation of classification of personnel
safety strategies and mechanisms for their implementation; characteristics of the regions of the Russian Federation in terms of personnel security; substantiation of personnel policy directions at the federal and regional levels.
Conclusions and implications
Overall, our results show that the influence of geopolitical factors and multiculturalism on the personnel security of Russian Federation can be best assessed alongside the following main parameters:
• systematization of theoretical and methodological approaches to personnel security;
• conducting a comprehensive study of personnel security problems in Russia;
• comparison of the conditions for the occurrence of personnel risks in the regions of the Russian Federation;
• study of the problems of regional personnel differentiation and development of methods for overcoming it;
• study of the processes of formation of a personnel safety system in Russia;
• identification of the problems of formation and implementation of the personnel policy of the regions of the country;
• analysis of factors that determine the direction of development of human resources;
• assessment of the impact of geopolitical changes on the state of human resources in Russia;
• study of the impact of migration processes on the formation of the multicultural environment of the country;
• development of a strategic management system for personnel security in Russia and mechanisms for its implementation.
In general, the main results of the study consist in a systematic review of human security at the macro and mesoscale, the formation of the conceptual foundations of national human security; development of econometric models of migration processes for Russian conditions; identifying factors (geopolitical, institutional, multicultural, socio-economic, etc.) of personnel security in the Russian Federation; identifying the specifics of personnel security in Russia and its regions, taking into account specific personnel risks; systematization of geopolitical factors forming in new centres of international tension and forecasting their development trends; development of a system of indicators for assessing personnel security, justification of a system for monitoring personnel security and an algorithm for its implementation; the development of models for the development of human resources that ensure human security, a justification based on the modelling of key trends in personnel processes at the macro level; the development of modern tools for assessing personnel risks and personnel security; development of scenarios for the formation of a multicultural environment in the studied regions of the country; substantiation of the strategic management system for personnel security and the organizational and economic mechanism for its provision; substantiation of classification of personnel safety strategies and mechanisms for their implementation; characteristics of the regions of the Russian Federation in terms of personnel security; substantiation of personnel policy directions at the federal, regional and local levels.
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