Научная статья на тему 'Assessment of personnel risks and threats in the context of state security: a neo-instutional perspective'

Assessment of personnel risks and threats in the context of state security: a neo-instutional perspective Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

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Ключевые слова
INSTITUTIONALISM / NEO-INSTITUTIONAL PERSPECTIVE / PERSONNEL RISKS / PERSONNEL SECURITY / STATE / ИНСТИТУЦИОНАЛИЗМ / НЕОИНСТИТУЦИОНАЛЬНАЯ ПЕРСПЕКТИВА / КАДРОВЫЕ РИСКИ / КАДРОВАЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ / ГОСУДАРСТВО

Аннотация научной статьи по экономике и бизнесу, автор научной работы — Strielkowski Wadim, Astachova Elena, Larionova Natalia

His paper focuses on the problems of analysis and assessment of personnel risks and threats to personnel security as well to the security of the state from the point of view of the new-institutional theory. Organizational structures adapt and structure themselves based on the behaviour of their participants and on the factors of the external environment. Thence, personnel security might be influenced and distorted by the geopolitical, social and economic factors of all kinds. It is in the best interest of the state to impose a certain degree of regulation on these processes and to take control into its hands for the greater good and benefits of its citizens. Institutions of personnel security in Russian Federation are undergoing profound changes in the recent years. Many events that take place in the institutional environment might cause personnel risks and threats and thence effect the state security. Therefore, it seems important to focus on the volatile factors that might cause issue for the personnel security and cause negative effects for the state security. The paper analyses the indicators and performance indicators of the state apparatus and the quality of public administration, corruption risks, the effectiveness of the implementation of human resource requirements, the risks of demographic development, the level of migration, the scientific and educational system and educational risks using the example of the Russian Federation.

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Оценка рисков и угроз персонала в контексте государственной безопасности в неоинституциональной перспективе

В данной статье рассматриваются проблемы анализа и оценки кадровых рисков и угроз безопасности персонала, а также безопасности государства с точки зрения новой институциональной теории. Организационные структуры адаптируются и структурируются на основе поведения их участников и факторов внешней среды. Следовательно, на безопасность персонала могут влиять и искажать геополитические, социальные и экономические факторы всех видов. В интересах государства навязать определенную степень регулирования этим процессам и взять контроль в свои руки для блага и блага своих граждан. В последние годы институты кадровой безопасности Российской Федерации претерпевают глубокие изменения. Многие события, происходящие в институциональной среде, могут вызывать кадровые риски и угрозы и, следовательно, влиять на государственную безопасность. Поэтому представляется важным сосредоточить внимание на волатильных факторах, которые могут создавать проблемы для безопасности персонала и оказывать негативное влияние на безопасность государства. В статье анализируются показатели деятельности государственного аппарата и качества государственного управления, коррупционные риски, эффективность реализации кадровых потребностей, риски демографического развития, уровень миграции, а также научно-образовательная система и образовательные риски на примере Российской Федерации.

Текст научной работы на тему «Assessment of personnel risks and threats in the context of state security: a neo-instutional perspective»

ИНСТИТУЦИОНАЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ РЫНКА ТРУДА

www.hjournal.ru

Journal of Institutional Studies, 2019, 11(3), 170-181 DOI: 10.17835/2076-6297.2019.11.3.170-181

ASSESSMENT OF PERSONNEL RISKS AND THREATS IN THE CONTEXT OF STATE SECURITY: A NEO-INSTUTIONAL PERSPECTIVE

WADIM STRIELKOWSKI,

Professor,

Cambridge Institute for Advanced Studies, Cambridge, United Kingdom, Prague Business School, Prague, Czech Republic, e-mail: [email protected];

ELENA ASTACHOVA,

Associate Professor, Prague Business School, Prague, Czech Republic, North-Caucasus Federal University, Russian Federation, e-mail: [email protected];

NATALIA LARIONOVA,

Associate Professor, North-Caucasus Federal University, Stavropol, Russian Federation, e-mail: [email protected]

Citation: Strielkowski, W., Astachova, E., and Larionova, N. (2019). Assessment of personnel risks and threats in the context of state security: a neo-instutional perspective. Journal of Institutional Studies, 11(3), 170-181. DOI: 10.17835/2076-6297.2019.11.3.170-181

This paper focuses on the problems of analysis and assessment of personnel risks and threats to personnel security as well to the security of the state from the point of view of the new-institutional theory. Organizational structures adapt and structure themselves based on the behaviour of their participants and on the factors of the external environment. Thence, personnel security might be influenced and distorted by the geopolitical, social and economic factors of all kinds. It is in the best interest of the state to impose a certain degree of regulation on these processes and to take control into its hands for the greater good and benefits of its citizens. Institutions of personnel security in Russian Federation are undergoing profound changes in the recent years. Many events that take place in the institutional environment might cause personnel risks and threats and thence effect the state security. Therefore, it seems important to focus on the volatile factors that might cause issue for the personnel security and cause negative effects for the state security. The paper analyses the indicators and performance indicators of

© Стриелковски В., Астахова Е. А., Ларионова Н. А., 2019

the state apparatus and the quality of public administration, corruption risks, the effectiveness of the implementation of human resource requirements, the risks of demographic development, the level of migration, the scientific and educational system and educational risks using the example of the Russian Federation.

Keywords: institutionalism; neo-institutional perspective; personnel risks; personnel security; state.

JEL: B52, J08, H84

Acknowledgements: The study was carried out at the expense of a grant from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project No. 18-010-00732).

ОЦЕНКА РИСКОВ И УГРОЗ ПЕРСОНАЛА В КОНТЕКСТЕ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ В НЕОИНСТИТУЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ ПЕРСПЕКТИВЕ

СТРИЕЛКОВСКИ ВАДИМ,

профессор,

Кембриджский институт современных знаний, Кембридж, Великобритания, Пражская Бизнес-школа, Прага, Чешская республика, e-mail: [email protected];

АСТАХОВА ЕЛЕНА АЛЕКСАНДРОВНА,

кандидат экономических наук, доцент, Пражская Бизнес-школа, Прага, Чешская республика, Северо-Кавказский федеральный университет, Ставрополь, Российская Федерация, e-mail: [email protected];

ЛАРИОНОВА НАТАЛЬЯ АЛЕКСАНДРОВНА,

кандидат экономических наук, доцент, Северо-Кавказский федеральный университет, г. Ставрополь, Российская Федерация, e-mail: [email protected]

Цитирование: Стриелковски, В., Астахова, Е. А., Ларионова, Н. А. (2019). Оценка рисков и угроз персонала в контексте государственной безопасности в неоинституциональной перспективе // Journal of Institutional Studies, 11(3), 170-181. DOI: 10.17835/2076-6297.2019.11.3.170-181

В данной статье рассматриваются проблемы анализа и оценки кадровых рисков и угроз безопасности персонала, а также безопасности государства с точки зрения новой институциональной теории. Организационные структуры адаптируются и структурируются на основе поведения их участников и факторов внешней среды. Следовательно,

на безопасность персонала могут влиять и искажать геополитические, социальные и экономические факторы всех видов. В интересах государства навязать определенную степень регулирования этим процессам и взять контроль в свои руки для блага и блага своих граждан. В последние годы институты кадровой безопасности Российской Федерации претерпевают глубокие изменения. Многие события, происходящие в институциональной среде, могут вызывать кадровые риски и угрозы и, следовательно, влиять на государственную безопасность. Поэтому представляется важным сосредоточить внимание на волатильных факторах, которые могут создавать проблемы для безопасности персонала и оказывать негативное влияние на безопасность государства. В статье анализируются показатели деятельности государственного аппарата и качества государственного управления, коррупционные риски, эффективность реализации кадровых потребностей, риски демографического развития, уровень миграции, а также научно-образовательная система и образовательные риски на примере Российской Федерации.

Ключевые слова: институционализм; неоинституциональная перспектива; кадровые риски; кадровая безопасность; государство.

In the view of the institutional theory, organizations represent social constructions meaning that organizational structures adapt and structure themselves based on the behaviour of their participants and on the factors of the external environment (Scott, 1987).

Moreover, the neo-institutional theory states that organizations are structured by the events taking place in their institutional environment and merge with them over time (Meyer and Rowan, 1977; Martin et al., 2017; or Biesenthal et al., 2018).

With regard to the above, one cannot but notice that the current stage of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation is characterized by high risks and threats to the violation of the stability of life and the development of society for reasons of a geopolitical and macroeconomic nature (Mau and Ulyukaev, 2015). In conditions of instability of the global financial and commodity markets, the impact of the global financial and economic crisis, economic sanctions by the United States and EU countries, personnel safety is becoming a priority security problem for the development of the Russian economy (Krivko et al., 2019).

The effective protection of the socio-economic interests of society, aimed at reducing and preventing risks and threats associated with human resources, the security of the processes of reproduction and development of human and, in particular, labor resources to form the necessary potential for economic development of the state (Abrham et al., 2015). All these require the development of mechanisms for effective management of personnel risks and threats in the personnel security system of the Russian Federation (Mamychev et al., 2016; Fursov et al., 2018).

Risks and threats arising at the present stage of development of the state determine the relevance of studying the issues of ensuring national and economic security, the importance of studying one of its main components, namely the personnel security (Niño-Amézquita et al., 2017). This personnel security can be viewed as one of the elements standing high on the pyramid of personal needs (Maslow, 1970), however its consequences are long and far going.

In the institutions of personnel security, the state acts as the main regulator. It determines the guidelines for development, the composition and level of needs of human resources, their provision (Pearson, 2005; Mukhoryanova et al., 2018). However, the state is not a total regulator of these processes. It directly affects a rather narrow circle of entities, including state and municipal organizations, enterprises and joint-stock companies controlled by the state, as well as social groups (people with disabilities, youth, women, migrants, etc.) who need special protection. Other entities build their own personnel security based on their own interests.

This paper shows that the prevention of personnel risks and threats is possible through their analysis and assessment and application of methods for managing them. The paper

presents a systematic study and determination of the content of personnel risks and threats to personnel security of the state that might help to improve the ability to identify ways to control and minimize these risks.

Methods for assessing and managing personnel risks and threats

The general institutional approach to managing risks and threats to human security of the state is to identify the possible consequences of decisions in risk situations and situations of a security threat (Rothstein et al., 2013). It can be seen that it can lie in the development of measures to prevent or reduce damage due to underestimated and underestimated risk factors and threats. Moreover, it can also be in creating such a system of adaptation to risks and threats, in which it is possible not only to neutralize and minimize undesirable consequences and results, but also to maximize the level of personnel protection of the country.

These processes can be analysed in the views of Coase (1960) as a theory of a social cost. Personnel security might cause serious harm to the mere existence of state institutions and undermine the trust in the state power and authority. Thus, it might represent something along the lines of a negative externality in the views of Coase (2007).

One can see that the effective governance of personnel risks and threats to personnel security of the state should have a strategic direction and be implemented by tactical methods. It becomes clear that strategic management of personnel risks and threats to personnel security should include:

• setting long-term goals in the field of ensuring personnel security of the state through inducing changes to its institutions;

• analysis and assessment of uncertainty, risk situations and threats to personnel safety that impede the achievement of goals;

• development of the basic concept of ensuring personnel safety;

• development of personnel policies and action programs.

Among the tools and methods for assessing personnel risks and threats, modern researchers include applied scientific methods: research methods; methods of analysis and synthesis; forecasting methods. The tactics of managing personnel risks and threats are associated with the development of evaluation methods and management methods.

Currently, the greatest interest among the methods for assessing personnel risks and threats posed by the structural elements of personnel security is the use of the indicative method.

Determinants of personnel risks and threats

State interests in the field of personnel security involve taking into account the following indicators: quality and level of government, level of corruption, level of social tension in the labor market, level of migration, level of education, as well as many others (Montaquila and Godwin, 2016).

An indicative method for assessing the state's personnel security makes it possible to determine the occurrence of possible personnel risks and threats. Using the indicative method to determine a more accurate and reliable assessment of the impact of various threats is possible when determining threshold values for personnel safety indicators.

Threshold values are the limiting values of indicators (indicators) of personnel safety, the excess (or decrease) of which leads to the formation and spread of negative, destructive trends in the field of socio-economic development (Omer, 2008).

However, in modern conditions, the level of accuracy of indicators of personnel risks and threats to personnel security is a serious problem which consists in the absence of a methodological base for determining indicators that take into account all the features of the state structure of the country and all the necessary macroeconomic qualitative and quantitative indicators of socio-economic status.

Thus, to assess the overall level of personnel security and develop a set of measures aimed at preventing and minimizing personnel risks and threats, it is considered advisable to apply a systematic approach using a common methodology for studying the problems of managing personnel risks and threats based on aggregated qualitative and quantitative indicators and characteristics labor resources of the Russian Federation.

Analysis of the personnel security: a case of Russia

The implementation of personnel risks and threats in the personnel security system of the Russian Federation has its own characteristics. Firstly, it is a large-scale economy with an area of 17.1 million km2 and a population of 2018 constituting about 146.9 million people (Federal Statistics, 2019). Secondly, its Russian sociocultural diversity, cultural and traditional differences which leaves its mark on socio-economic relations in the country. Thirdly, Russian economy has 85 entities characterized by differentiation of regional indicators of economic and social development. Finally, fourthly, the transition to an open economy led to the inclusion of Russia into the global economy (Granville andMallick, 2010).

Key medium-term economic growth risks are characterized by the expansion of economic sanctions, the resumption of turbulence in the financial markets of EMDE countries, changes in oil prices and the complication of world trade conditions (World Bank, 2019a).

Thus, the analysis of risk factors and threats to human security in this study was carried out on the basis of a systematic approach with the identification of negative and risk impacts from macroeconomic phenomena (institutional, political, demographic, migration, etc.).

The stability of any state depends, first of all, on the quality of public administration and state personnel policy. However, despite the processes of qualitative reform, the domestic practice of public administration not only retains its inconsistency, but also acquires the tendency of excessive administration.

The institutional changes are predetermined by the vectors of the upgrade of the public administration system in Russia which are set by the formalization and bureaucratization of managerial activity, accompanied by the growth of the bureaucracy (Fadeikina et al., 2016). Unfortunately, this is not coupled with the increase in the efficiency of the state apparatus or the formation of a legal culture and citizen participation in the management process (see Table 1).

It can be seen on Table 1 that over the analyzed period, the increase in the number of employees of state bodies and local self-government bodies in the whole of the Russian Federation almost doubled, and at the federal level by 1.3 times which indicates the extensive development of the public administration process, reducing its effectiveness, increasing the bureaucratization of the state apparatus and, accordingly, and increasing government spending on its functioning.

Table 1

Number of employees of state bodies and local governments in the Russian Federation in 2000-2018, thousand people

Year 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018/2000

Russian Federation 1163,3 1648,4 2176,4 2146,3 2172,9 2156,3 1,9

Federal level 38,8 47,5 49,2 49,1 49,7 49,6 1,3

Source: Federal Statistics (2019).

The quality of public administration, in particular, the personnel policy of any state depends on various factors. Recently, a plethora of research has been carried out on the problems of the quality of public administration. One of the global studies is carried out by the World Bank from 1996 to the present, according to the results of which a rating of the countries of the world is formed in terms of quality and effectiveness of public

administration (World Bank, 2019b). The project methodology includes six indicators (Worldwide Governance Indicators), reflecting various parameters of public administration, for each of which a country rating is formed.

Each of the six indicators of public administration quality is evaluated on a scale from zero to one hundred, which allows us to judge the country's position in the world ranking. Accordingly, the lower the indicator value, the worse this parameter of public administration.

In Russia, the best dynamics and a high level (50.48%) is shown by the government's performance indicator, which doubled during the period under review. Significant growth rates are demonstrated by an increase over the period of the indicator of political stability and the absence of violence, which also doubled. However, in general, the level of this indicator remains low. The indicator of legislative quality has improved slightly (from 27.18% to 32.69%) and the rule of law (15.84% to 22.12%). The level of deterrence of corruption (17.31%) has a low level, despite its slight increase over the period. The indicator of taking into account the opinions of the population and accountability of state bodies deteriorated over the period. Russian indicators of the quality of public administration during the analyzed period are below the global average (World Bank, 2019b).

The lack of the proper institutions that would ensure the influence of various groups of the population in the ruling elite creates significant barriers in improving the efficiency of Russian public governance and therefore in the efficient use and reproduction of human resources, which creates risks and real threats to the personnel security of the state (Yildirim and Gokalp, 2016). Thus, after examining the risks and threats to human security associated with the effectiveness of public administration in Russia against the backdrop of global trends, it should be noted that in modern conditions in the Russian Federation the level of effectiveness of public administration in comparison with foreign countries remains low, which significantly increases the risks and threats personnel security (Martynova et al., 2017).

The main reasons for this situation are: the high number of officials in the public administration system, the inability to influence various groups of the population on management policy due to their absence in the ruling elite, and the presence of significant barriers to improving the efficiency of public administration. This makes it difficult for governments to quickly adapt to changing conditions; inefficiencies in the exercise of their job functions; distrust of the authorities, the results of elections, referenda; political protests; the growth of social and political tension and, as a consequence of all this, the decline in living standards and the dissatisfaction of the needs and interests of human resources, which contradicts the tasks of ensuring personnel security of the state.

Russia's lagging behind the advanced countries in socio-economic development is also due to the lack of a state personnel policy formed by some politicians and public servants who are not adequately prepared to professionally and morally perform the functions of public administration, obviously losing to their Western colleagues. Therefore, corruption risks deserve special attention in the study of personnel risks and threats to personnel security in Russia.

An objective indicator of "corruption risks" is the The Corruption Perceptions Index computed by Transparency International (2018) which represents a global study of countries around the world on the prevalence of corruption in the public and economic sectors. The calculation of the index is based on the study of publicly available statistics and the results of global surveys, determines the corruption rating of countries regarding any abuse of official position in the state for personal purposes. The focus on expert surveys in measuring corruption is due to insufficient statistics (for example, the number of criminal cases or court sentences for corruption), firstly, because of their limited access to these data, and secondly, biased reflection of the results associated with reflection not so much the real level of corruption as the effectiveness of the work of law enforcement agencies in identifying and combating corruption.

This is determined by the only reliable source of information for the opinions and testimonies of people directly facing corruption (entrepreneurs) or professionally studying it (analysts). The significant influence of the index, according to researchers, on the general perception of corruption by residents of countries, leads to a decrease in the opportunities for economic and personnel development of the state. As Transparency International (2018) notes, the problems with corruption in the Russian Federation are associated with the fact that "the existing institutions of a democratic society are often replaced by their imitation". In the ranking of the index, Russia received 28 points in 2018, which corresponds to 28 place (see Table 2 that follows).

Table 2

The dynamics of the corruption perception index in Russia (2012-2018)

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Index value 28 28 27 29 29 29 28

Source: Transparency International (2018).

According to the corruption perception index, Russia is located next to Guinea, Iran, Lebanon, Papua New Guinea and Mexico.

In the context of personnel security, social tension in the labor market is formed not only in the absence of real opportunities for the realization of their needs by certain groups of people or communities, but also in the presence of potential risks and threats to the interests of human, in particular labor resources, expressed in a complex of subjective assessments and objective factors.

The effectiveness of the implementation of human resource requirements in Russia is expressed in the approval of the activities of public institutions.

Since 2017 there is a decrease in approval in almost all public institutions, which increases the risks and threats to human security. However, the dynamics of this indicator must be constantly monitored, especially since over a longer period (2008—2017), in general, the dynamics was upward.

The most important determinant of the personnel security of a state is the state of its demographic environment, as well as the risks of demographic development. The demographic risks and threats to the personnel security of the Russian Federation associated with the reproduction of its human resources are manifested primarily in terms of population. A slight increase in the population in Russia by 0.4% between 2000—2018 determined direct and indirect negative trends, expressed in terms of fertility and mortality.

Demographic risks and threats to the personnel security of the Russian Federation associated with the reproduction of its human resources are manifested primarily in terms of population. A slight increase in the population in Russia by 0.4% between 2000—2018 determined direct and indirect negative trends, expressed in terms of fertility and mortality.

Negative trends of this coefficient were also observed on a global scale (in 1950-1955, the total birth rate in the world was 4.95, and in 2015, according to the UN estimates, 2.36).

However, in Russia this indicator throughout the analyzed period had extremely negative trends: in 2000, the indicator was 1.195, for subsequent periods there was a slight increase of almost 1.5 times (1.762) in 2016 and a sharp decline of 8% in 2017 (1,621), and 2.6% in 2018 (1,579).

The latest statistics obtained for the first quarter of 2019 show a decrease in the total fertility rate by 5.5% compared to 2018 (1.49 children per woman). In general, the decline in this indicator over the past five years is defined as critical 11.2% (Federal Statistics, 2019).

Currently, Russia is witnessing the first signs of labor shortages. Despite the situation of full employment (65.6% in 2018) and the unemployment rate close to the natural norm (4.8% in 2018), in a situation of a decrease in the number of labor resources, a collision of employers with a shortage of labor is expected.

The downward trend in the total number of workforce that arose in 2017—2018. It has also noted by the HSE Center for Labor Studies,which is projected to reduce labor by 7-8 million over the next 10-15 years that: "the scale may vary, but the trend is obvious" (Realnoe Vremya, 2018).

A similar trend establishes the following correlation between the number of the labor force and the demographic burden of the population: the greater the reduction in the number of labor, the greater the burden on the economy of the unproductive population. So, for the analyzed period from 2000-2018. in Russia there was a steady increase in the demographic load coefficient by 18.7%. In 2018, there were 786 disabled people per 1,000 people of working age.

According to the forecast of the Federal State Statistics Service, the demographic load indicator will also have a tendency to increase until 2036 (see fig. 1).

920 900 880 860 840 820 800 780

However, the present and projected increase in the demographic burden has already led to a crisis in the pension system. Today, one in four Russian residents is an old-age pensioner, while 10 years ago the proportion of citizens over the working age was 20.8 %, by the beginning of 2018 it reached 25 % (Federal Statistics, 2019).

Furthermore, one of the indicators of personnel risks and their attendant threats in the personnel security system of Russia is a high level of migration (both emigration and immigration), which negatively affects both the quantitative and qualitative indicators of the population of the Russian Federation. In general, migration represents a global risk (Jandova, 2012).

The dynamics of emigration and immigration processes in Russia from 2011 to 2018 has an upward character. Some studies show that about 1/3 of the representatives of the observed emigration flow in recent years have high indicators of the quality of human capital, expressed in the high educational and professional rates of leaving the country, moreover, for the most part at a young age (Fursov et al., 2018).

In other words, currently in Russia there is an increase in emigration flows of highly educated specialists at the peak of professional productivity. The proportion of people with high migration attitudes (from 8 to 23%), as well as high rates of people traveling among young people and middle-aged people with higher education and living in large cities, are setting a new migration trend with a long completion.

The potential of Russians accumulated abroad in recent years from annual emigration to more developed countries is about 800,000 people with higher education, who demonstrate the problem of brain drain and scientific intelligentsia. In total, about 0.07—0.08% of the population per year leaves Russia for non-CIS countries. This is less than leaving most countries of the world, including the USA and the main countries of the European Union.

Human security, and in particular labor resources, is influenced by the scientific and educational system and educational risks. The problem of secondary education in Russia is manifested, on the contrary, in a reduction in the number of skilled workers with a systematic

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Fig. 1. Demographic load factor forecast until 2036 Source: Own results based on the data from Federal Statistics (2019).

increase in the number of educational organizations under secondary vocational education programs. Even a 35% increase in the number of such institutions from 2000 to 2018 did not improve the menacing decrease in the number of skilled workers. For the study period from 2000—2018, the reduction dynamics was 80 %.

1200 965 1115 1000 800 600 400 200 0

2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fig. 2. Russian dynamics of a decrease in the number of educational institutions of higher education and scientific organizations engaged in educational activities under higher education programs, thousand people Source: Own results based on the data from Federal Statistics (2019).

The problems of higher education are similar. Starting in 2010, a decrease in universities began by 34 % in just 6 years (from 1,115 higher education institutions in 2000 to 741 in 2018) (see fig. 2 above).

The number of students in 2018 decreased by 12 % as a whole for the analyzed period from 2000-2018, and in particular since 2010 by 41% compared to 2018, 933.2 thousand graduated (in 2018), 1147.9 thousand were admitted to the studying programmes.

Apart from students, one of the serious problems of education is its quality. The university personnel often produce low-quality research and publishes in low-quality scientific journals (often in the so-called "predatory journals" (see Strielkowski, 2017)).

Thus, one of the central problems of the long-term macroeconomic potential and ensuring personnel security in Russia against the background of a negative decrease in the number of skilled workers graduated and the number of university students graduated is the lack of qualified specialists able to modernize the country's economy.

Conclusions

Overall, in the course of our indicative analysis of institutional determinants affecting the personnel security of the Russian Federation, we identified the key risks and threats in the Russian personnel security system. Our analysis of the quality of public administration and its impact on ensuring the personnel security of the state revealed a number of personnel risks and threats to personnel security, such as low efficiency of public administration of human, in particular, labor resources, and the growth of socio-political tension in the country.

In the course of the analysis of the demographic situation that developed itself on the territory of the Russian Federation for the period from 2000-2018, the following negative trends were identified that formed the demographic risks and threats to the personnel safety of the state:

• decrease in real disposable incomes of the population;

• rising prices for goods and services;

• low level of benefits and social benefits that do not meet the needs of needy segments of the population;

• illegality of income distribution, income inequality;

• increased crime in the absence of a constant source of income;

• increased violence in adolescence.

Thus, the prevailing negative situation in the socio-economic system of the Russian Federation identified the following main socio-economic risks and threats to human security:

• decrease in living standards and quality of life of the population;

• limiting the ability of the population to invest in themselves and in the economy;

• weakening of labor motivation of employees.

The problems of the socio-economic system largely determined the migration processes in the country, which negatively affected the quality of the labor resources of the Russian Federation:

• increase in the number of people leaving the country;

• migration decline in the population with high human capital and educational level;

• outstripping growth in the number of working-age immigrants over the number of working-age population of Russia;

• low-skilled immigration influx.

All this led to the following main migration risks and threats to personnel security:

• outflow of highly qualified personnel;

• increase in the number of low-skilled foreign labor.

Negative trends in the quality of labor resources and a negative impact on human security are also observed in the educational sphere. Scientific and educational risks and threats to human security in Russia are caused, first of all, by a decrease in the number of scientific schools; lack of educational schools; lack of funds in the educational system; low teacher salaries; a decrease in the number of graduates of educational institutions and qualified specialists; Unreadiness for innovative activity of these organizations.

In general, the scientific and educational risks and threats to human security in Russia include:

• reduction in the number of educational institutions;

• imbalance of the labor market and educational services, expressed in the dissatisfaction of the needs of the labor market in personnel with the necessary level of knowledge and qualifications;

• low funding for scientific and educational fields of activity;

• low level of remuneration for specialists in this field;

• low level of innovation activity.

Scientific and educational risks are closely linked with professional qualification risks and threats to personnel safety, which are described in this study as low labor productivity; the lack of demand for qualified personnel in the labor market and the depreciation of the value of "professional people".

Thus, the analysis of qualitative and quantitative indicators characterizing the state of human, in particular, the labor resources of the Russian Federation helped us to identify the main negative trends in institutional development of the country. These trends seem to impact on increasing personnel risks and threats and the state of the potential of the socio-economic system for the personnel development of the Russian Federation. Therefore, institutional aspects of this development should be studied closely and taken into account when formulating measures and policies aimed at improving the personnel development and state security.

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