CC BY
18ECONOMIC SCIENCES
Mirzayeva Ayan PhD-Student, Institute of Control Systems Baku State University, Azerbaijan DOI: 10.24412/2520-2480-2020-3183-4-7
THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TOURISM
MARKET
Abstract.
In many countries of the world, tourism is developing as a system that provides all the opportunities to get acquainted with the history, culture, customs, spiritual and religious values of a given country and its people, and gives income to the treasury. Not to mention the fact that this system "feeds" a lot of individuals and legal entities, one way or another connected with the provision of tourist services. In addition to a significant income item, tourism is also one of the powerful factors in enhancing the country's prestige and its importance in the eyes of the world community. Currently, the tourism industry is one of the fastest growing forms of international trade in services, despite the crisis, which has covered almost all areas of the global economy. Like the great depression of the beginning of the twentieth century, the global economic crisis that began in 2008 caused a planetary panic that swept not only the United States, but also stable Western Europe.
Keywords: tourism, crisis, impact, global economy, tourism market.
In modern conditions, tourism is one of the most developed areas of the world economy, forms of foreign economic activity. By the end of XX century. tourism took a leading place in international foreign economic relations, began to have a serious impact on the development of the economy of individual countries and the world economy as a whole, its influence on the formation of gross domestic product (GDP) increased. Currently, tourism is a powerful global industry, occupying up to 10% of the global gross product, which involves a huge mass of employees, fixed assets, large capital. We can say that tourism is also a serious global policy. [1]
Tourism plays a major role in the global economy, providing a tenth of the global gross national product (GNP) This sector of the economy is developing rapidly and in the coming years will become its most important sector. The annual growth in investment in the tourism industry will be about 30%. Countries with abundant tourism resources specialize in international tourism and export such services. For example, the resorts of Spain, Greece, Tunisia and Morocco attract a large flow of tourists with a favorable climate and excellent sea beaches. In addition, tourism has social significance as a factor in improving the educational level of people. International tourism has a powerful impact on employment and is an active source of foreign exchange earnings and has an impact on the country's balance of payments. In addition to the impact on the economy of many countries, international tourism affects their social and cultural environment, ecology. And the latter, in turn, affect tourists. The following factors influence the development of tourism today. Firstly, the global financial crisis, which is reflected in all spheres of life. The tourism industry was no exception. Traveling is far from the first need and need of a person, which means that abandoning them is not so difficult. First of all, the crisis will hit the middle class, because it was he who always constituted the main stratum of actively traveling. Mass tourism will also suffer a lot from the
crisis. Already, prices for long-distance destinations increased by 10-40% compared to last year. And all because of the increase in the cost of the flight. If last year in Bangkok, for example, it was possible to fly for $ 500, now a place in the economy class costs at least $ 1,100. On average, for long-distance destinations, cheap tours have risen in price by 2 times or more, in expensive segments, the price increase was 15-20%. The second factor determining the situation of today's tourism are bills that can practically destroy the tourist market, which can be adopted by the government in the near future. Thirdly, international relations. They have a huge impact on tourism. An example of this is Thailand, in the two largest airports of which, blocked by the local opposition in late November, tens of thousands of foreign tourists got stuck. This was a real headache for Ukrainian tour operators. Thus, the financial crisis will undoubtedly have some effect on the entire tourism sector, regardless of direction. But people will not stop traveling - unless they reduce the cost and duration of trips. In our stressful everyday life, it is impossible to exist without proper rest. Of course, in a crisis, tourist flows abroad have declined significantly.
From an economic point of view, the attractiveness of tourism as an integral part of services is the faster return on investment and income in freely convertible currency. The tourism business is one of the fastest growing sectors of the world economy, accounting for about 6% of the global gross national product, 7% of total capital investment, 11% of global consumer spending and 5% of all tax revenues. International tourism accounts for about 7% of world exports. In absolute terms, this is second only to revenues from the export of oil, oil products and automobiles. The growth of tourist activity (according to the WTO), measured in the number of tourists arriving in other countries and income from their services (in percent).
Moreover, the indirect impact of tourism on the economy is almost equal to its direct result. Given these prerequisites, the share of tourism according to WTO
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forecasts reaches 11 - 12%. The tourism business stimulates the development of other sectors of the economy: construction, trade, agriculture, the production of consumer goods, communications, etc.
This business attracts entrepreneurs for many reasons: small start-up investments, growing demand for tourism services, a high level of profitability and a minimum payback period.
In a number of foreign countries, tourism is one of the highest priority sectors, the contribution to the gross national income of which is 15 - 35% (Hungary, Czech Republic, Austria, Sweden, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal).
Statistics show that air transportation is resistant to global shocks. Despite short-term market downturns after each of the global crises — be it the explosive rise in oil prices in 1973 and 1978, the Persian Gulf war in the early 1990s, or the September 11, 2000 terrorist attacks — the curve of air transportation volumes, showing a decrease, soon not just returning to the starting point, but steadily tearing up. Every 15 years, according to the ICAO, the passenger turnover doubles. And in the next 15 years, according to the forecast calculations of experts of the Airbus concern, this trend will not undergo any changes. Over the course of 20 years, global passenger growth will average 4.7% per year, they say. "Crises make only short-term adjustments, and in the medium and long term, continuous and steady growth will necessarily follow." The forecasted geography of this growth can be based on statistical calculations for 2000-2008. In general, they showed an increase in passenger traffic by 38%. At the same time, the air transport market of India developed most rapidly -192%. Next come China (184%), the Middle East (166%), the CIS countries (121%), Africa (53%), Latin America (40%). Passenger traffic growth in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region was 29% lower than the world average. And quite a bit - 7% - added North America.
By the beginning of 2009, virtually all regions were affected by the economic crisis. In Europe, in the first quarter of 2009, the export of EU tourism services decreased by 24%. The outlook for the sector in 2009 was generally disappointing. In addition to adverse economic conditions and a factor holding back the increase in tourist visits, there was a fear of an epidemic of the H1N1 flu virus. The World Tourism Organization has predicted a 4-6% drop in international tourist arrivals in 2009. [2]
However, according to forecasts of specialists from international organizations, international tourism quickly recovered from the effects of the crisis. According to estimates by the World Tourism Organization, the number of international tourist arrivals in 2010 increased by 3-4%.
The World Tourism Organization's initial forecast for 2010 showed that international tourist arrivals are likely to gradually begin to recover with an increase of 1-3%. The experts were right. Thus, according to the World Tourism Organization, in the first four months of 2010, the expected recovery of international tourism in terms of arrival, income and expenses in 120 key countries of the world occurred.
International tourism is an actively developing promising international business, which distinguishes it as one of the types of foreign economic activity. He resorts to the main commercial operations of international trade (transactions of sale of services), he also requires companies, including transnational special management strategies.
This is primarily due to the fact that the exchange rate has a significant impact on the activities of the tourism sector. Since the tourism industry cannot adjust the exchange rate itself, it has to adapt to currency fluctuations. International tourism receipts represent the revenues of the host countries from international tourism, which are recorded according to the export item of these countries and include payments made by visitors staying for one day or several days. As an export item, they make up approximately 6% of the total value of international exports of goods and services and take fourth place after goods such as fuel, chemicals and cars. For many host countries, in particular for developing countries and island states, tourism remains the largest source of export revenue. [3]
Against this background, for countries with a developing economy, for the former post-socialist countries, it is the development of inbound tourism that becomes important, since the dollar is freely circulating in their economy and international trade in services can be very effective. [4]
Therefore, for successful activities in the international market of tourism enterprises, it is necessary to remember that international tourism acts primarily as a social phenomenon, while the foreign economic activity of a tourism enterprise relates primarily to economic categories. It is also necessary to take into account that both of these phenomena are multilevel: if international tourism is studied at the macroeconomic level, then the foreign economic activity of a tourist enterprise is the subject of a study of microeconomics. However, despite the above differences, it should be borne in mind that the foreign economic activity of a tourism enterprise is an element, an "elementary link" of the phenomenon of "international tourism", which arose and develops thanks to the targeted activity of tourism enterprises operating in the country's foreign economic complex. Accordingly, international tourism is a derivative of the totality of economic activities that make up the practice of foreign economic activity of travel agencies.
Starting to study the elementary link of the phenomenon of international tourism - the foreign economic activity of a tourism enterprise - it is necessary to dwell on the consideration of its functions. An analysis of the functions of the foreign economic activity of a tourism enterprise will allow us to demonstrate how the public purpose of this category is realized.
The greatest influence on world tourist flows in 2020 will be caused by rising prices for jet fuel, distribution of Covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate of national currencies, according to the forecast of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). The fall in demand for tourism services in 2020 will worsen. According to the UNWTO, the main thing that holds back the interest of Europeans and Americans in travel now
is economic uncertainty, as well as the high euro exchange rate. Many experts expect a significant increase in airfare. UNWTO expects more tangible results in
CONCLUSION
Tourism, among other sectors of the non-productive sphere of the economy, is more exposed to external factors. In this sense, the impact of the global financial crisis on the global tourism industry is no exception, and, of course, most experts talk about the negative consequences of the instability of the global economy and the Covid-19 pandemic for the further development of the tourism business. According to the World Tourism Organization, most regions of the world in the second half of 2020 showed a decrease in the growth rate of international tourism. This is especially true in European countries. At the same time, the tourist market entered the crisis earlier than other industries. In this situation, most tour operators were not able to pay for charters and blocks of places in hotels, because in the conditions of the financial crisis, banks refuse loans to those sectors of the economy that are low-income and risky. In connection with these prices for accommodation and air travel are growing, and the number of charters is reduced. The fall in demand for organized leisure and the increase in costs of tour operators has already led to the bankruptcy of several large tourism companies.
In the medium term, a significant decrease in the volume of business and corporate tourism is also expected, which will suffer from the global economic downturn to a greater extent than travel for leisure and recreation. This is primarily due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Due to the pandemic, investment in the development of tourism infrastructure is declining. We can talk about such a reaction to the influence of external factors, such as changes in routes and travel distances. According to forecasts, tourists will choose closer, cheaper destinations, preferring routes in their own country or neighboring countries using more efficient vehicles. The duration of trips, their frequency, expenses during travels will also decrease, the number of package tours, including to beach resorts, will decrease. At the same time, the number of trips booked independently will increase, mainly with accommodation
according to forecasts, the growth in demand in these markets is very much due to factors such as oil prices, fears of Covid 19 pandemic, to which the tourism mar-
with friends or relatives. Trips to those countries will be most in demand. Which will be the most beneficial for tourists during a pandemic. Positive trends in the educational tourism market are expected. Consumers will consider the opportunity to combine a foreign trip with education, language learning, advanced training as a profitable investment to improve their own level, for successful employment, promotion on the career ladder. Choosing between ordinary leisure and educational programs abroad, in conditions of economic instability, consumers will give preference to training programs. Some representatives of the tourism industry also believe that the departure of incompetent players from the market and the retention of professionals in the industry can be a positive consequence of the crisis.
References
1. Okladnikova V.A. International tourism. Geography of tourist resources of the world. - 2011 .382 p.
2. Alexandrova A.U. International tourism. 2010 . 464 p.
3. Bystrov S.A., Vorontsova M.G. Tourism. Macroeconomics and microeconomics. 2007 . 464 p.
4. Chikurova T.U, Piunova M.A. Modern trends in the development of entrepreneurship in the service sector and international tourism // Mathematical models and information technology in the organization of production. 2008. No. 2. P. 83-90.
5. Seyidov S. "Factors influencing local tourists' decision-making on choosing a destination: A case of Azerbaijan"
6. Martha Honey; Raymond Gilpin "Tourism in the developing world, promoting peace and reducing poverty"
7. Kvartalnov V.A. Tourism. - Moscow: Finance and Statistics, 2004
8. Birzhakov M.B. Introduction to tourism. 2004
9. Bogatyreva TG Modern culture and social development 2006
terms of travel from developing countries. However, kets are sensitive.
Country The number of tourist arrivals, million Share in the global tourism market, % Growth Dynamics 1995-2020,%
USA 102,4 6,4 3,5
France 93,3 5,8 1,8
Spain 71 4,4 2,4
Hong Kong 59,3 3,7 7,3
Italy 52,9 3,3 2,2
United Kingdom 52,8 3,3 3
Mexico 48,9 3,1 3,6
Russia 47,1 2,9 6,7
Czech Republic 44 2,7 4
Total 708,8 44,2
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УДК 658. 155.4
Lopatiuk R.I.
Associate Professor of Foreign Trade Management, Hotel and Restaurant Business and Tourism
Vinnytsia National Agrarian University, Vinnytsia,
APPLICATION OF ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR THE RESTAURANT
ENTERPRISE MANAGEMENT
Abstract.
The main factors that affect the formation of the revenue side, in particular the net profit of restaurants in Vinnytsia, are identified and analyzed in the article. The mathematical model is developed. Based on the obtained data of correlation-regression analysis, the main recommendations for the work of restaurants to increase their profitability are proposed.
Keywords: rest business, mathematical molecule, correlation analysis, restaurant profit, food cost, labor cost, service, service
Effective management of any modern restaurant, only on the first count is not subject to the laws of mathematical analysis.
In fact, the results of the financial activities of restaurants are not possible without the use of modern methods of economic and mathematical modeling as well as economic and statistical analysis. The activity of any cafe, restaurant, pizzeria etc. is affected by many factors. It is possible to estimate their performance by methods of statistics which are based on the development and the analysis of the corresponding mathematical model. For this purpose, the methods of multiple correlation-regression analysis are used, which allow to study and quantify the internal and external investigative links between the factors forming the model and establish the functioning regularities and trends in the development of the investigated result feature.
In this article, we will try to establish a clear relationship between what exactly affects the operation of the restaurant, which factors are key ones and have the greatest impact on the final financial result.
The main tasks of economic and mathematical modeling are: analysis of economic objects and processes; economic forecasting, forecasting the development of economic processes; making management decisions at all levels of the economic hierarchy [16]. Among the large number of models should be distinguished such statistical methods as methods of trend and correlation-regression analysis. The main task of correlation and regression methods of analysis is to analyze statistics to identify the mathematical relationship between the studied features and to establish using correlation coefficients a comparative estimate of the density of the relationship, which has a certain numerical expression [11].
Correlation and regression methods of analysis solve two main problems: determining the analytical form of the relationship between the variation of signs X and Y with the help of regression equations; finding and statistical evaluation of the equation of the relationship between performance and factor characteristics on the basis of regression analysis; interpretation of the obtained equation and its use. The most common types of relationships are: - a factor feature is directly related to
the effective feature; - the effective feature is determined by a set of operating factors; - two effective features are caused by the action of one common cause.
An important sign of the investment attractiveness of restaurant enterprises is the profitability level of the enterprise, in particular indicators that show the financial result (the amount of profit received by the enterprise during the analyzed period). That is why it is necessary to analyze how the profit of the restaurant is formed, to determine the main ways and methods of managing it. In order to identify the main components that affect the amount of profit of restaurants, we will conduct a correlation analysis of individual financial indices of their activities. To determine these dependences, we will perform a correlation-regression analysis and develop an economic-mathematical model.
The analysis of the impact of individual factors on the amount of net income, profitability indices allow us to assess certain trends that have emerged as a result of the activities of restaurants in Vinnytsia region during 2017-2020. We will quantify the total impact of the studied factors on the performance index. The complex interaction of all factors (X1, X2,.....Xn) with the resultant indicator (Y) can be described by the equation of linear multifactor regression of the form:
y = ao+ax x- +a2 x2 + an xn (3.1.)
Using the data of correlation-regression analysis, we determine the influence of the following factors on the amount of net profit, UAH million. (Y) for the restaurants of Vinnytsia region:
1) Labor cost, UAH (X1);
2) Seasonality of products used, % (X2);
3) Level of service and maintenance, UAH (X3);
4) The cost of rent, utilities, UAH (X4);
5) Food cost, UAH (X5);
6) The average amount received (UAH) - is an index to determine the guests in the price segment of the institution. (X);
These indices were grouped into 5 restaurants of the Vinnytsia restaurant chain "Fine Affairs", which are studied in the dynamics of 2015-2020; the average indices for the studied period were used for the analysis (tab. 3.1)
