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and the USA, achieved a lot: succeeded to keep in the country the military base of anti-terrorist forces, raised by more than three times the income of its location, secured writing off the external debt to Russia, received the Russian grant, as well as the preferential credit. At the same time, the leadership of Kirghizstan preserved the chance for further bargaining relating to the air base. The agreement on presence of NATO servicemen shall be concluded for one year with probable prolongation or without prolongation, if one interested party, for instance Russia, wishes to make to the Kirghiz authorities a more favorable proposal. Kirghizstan within the framework of present realities in the Central Asia objectively needs the close rapprochement with Russia. The neighboring countries (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) constantly make greater border claims to the republic. Only maintaining unity with the Russian Federation, it is possible to withstand the countries, which are more powerful in economic and military terms and which deliver rigid territorial ultimatums.
"Tsivilizatsiya i gosudarstvo na Vostoke", M., 2009, p. 23-44.
Elena Ionova,
candidate of historic sciences (IMEMO RAN) THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL FACTORS ON RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND TURKMENISTAN
The dominant of cooperation of Russia with Turkmenistan remains the export of Turkmen gas to the RF. For the 2009, the dialogue at the highest level was going on: in September and December two working visits were made by D. Medvedev to Ashghabad , while G. Berdymukhamedov visited Moscow in March and November. Besides, the negotiations at the highest level were held during meetings
within the frameworks of the CIS. They concerned the search for addressing the questioned issues (primarily the amount and price of the Turkmen gas purchased by the RF) and determining new directions of bilateral cooperation. For 2009, Russia, despite extension by Turkmenistan of its external economic ties, kept the leading position in the foreign trade turnover of the republic. For 11 months its amount made up $5.5 billion (without taking into account the gas component, the trade turnover of the two countries did not succeed $900 million, though), at the same time the Russian export to Turkmenistan increased by 2.5 times. With participation of Russian investors, 127 projects are being implemented in various sectors of economy and in the social sphere. The leadership of the RT stresses that the relations with the RF are going on within the framework of the long-term strategic partnership and do not depend on the international conjuncture and are not subject to the external impact.
At the same time, the changed realities make essential corrections in the relations between two countries. The list of factors, having direct impact on mutual relations between Russia and Turkmenistan, inter alia, consists of the following: first, intensification of economic relations of Turkmenistan with other economic partners, reflected, in particular, in the realization of the principle of multiple variation of the routes for export of the Turkmen gas, and, second, the world financial-economic crisis. The commission on 14 December 2009 of the gas pipeline Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China meant that Russia ceased to be the sole importer of the Turkmen gas (excluding the small gas import by Iran) and its supplier to the world market. For the nearest 30 years, the gas will be shipped to China, which gradually becomes one of the biggest markets for the supply of the raw resources from the Central Asia (in 2006 the oil pipeline from Kazakhstan was put into operation). The Trans-Asian gas pipeline, constructed for the shortest period of time
(only for two years), becomes for the PRC a real step forward on the way of diversification of the sources of the energy supplies, which is the aim, aspired for by all countries-importers of oil and gas, striving for ensuring energy security. The new pipeline means a lot for Turkmenistan: first of all, ensuring the sustainable sale of the produced gas, the shaping of its price on the basis of market competition and, as a whole, reduction of the republic's dependence on the RF in the sphere of these raw materials' supply to the world market. The construction of the Trans-Asian gas pipeline, estimated by the interested Central Asian countries as "the transaction of the century", acquires a special significance also from the point of view of the perspective integration processes. The pipeline may become an important factor both of the internal-regional (combination of resource, industrial and transit capacity of three countries of the CA) and of the inter-regional integration (the quadripartite format with participation of China but without Russia). In its turn, this process may lead to construction of new partnership schemes.
The leaders of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in their speeches relating to the commission of the gas pipeline stressed exactly the project's integration aspects. N. Nazarbayev said: "This is a great project. The pipeline restores the ancient Silk route." He noted as well that this fact would lead to the consolidation of positions of the Central Asian region in the world energy system. I. Karimov declared that the pipeline, constructed for the sake of reaching China, "changed the geopolitical map of the Central Asia" and would contribute to consolidation of energy security in the region and in the world. At the same time, the leaders of three Central Asian countries stressed that the Trans-Asian gas pipeline contributed as well to creation of the vast energy infrastructure with all accompanying elements - the industrial and social objects, the communications and new jobs. It should be noted
that the Russian business succeeded in making its contribution to implementation of this project: one of the most complicated parts of the pipeline was constructed with participation of Russian companies.
At the same time, there is quite evident the growing dependence of economy of Turkmenistan, like of other countries of the region, on China, which more actively penetrates to their markets. As it is known, the energy resources of the CA countries attracted the interest of China and represent the main factor of Beijing's interest in the region. It is accompanied by the rise of the investments' amount in the economy of the CA countries and by provision of beneficial credits for specific projects. At present, the development of the Turkmen-Chinese relations takes place not only in the raw materials sector but also in the wide specter of the economic development. The Chinese investments, according to the official data, made up in 2009 over $1billion and 1.4 billion yuans; in Turkmenistan 53 projects are being implemented in the gas and oil sphere, in the sectors of telecommunication, transport, agriculture, textile, chemical and food industries as well as in health care and construction.
The strengthening position of the Chinese capital in economy of Turkmenistan promotes the rise of influence of China. In particular, the Chinese national oil company (KNNK) possesses the contracted territory "Bagtyyarlyk" with the oil field Samandepe, the starting point of the natural gas' shipment by the Turkmen-Chinese gas pipeline (the Chinese investments were used also for construction there of a big gas processing enterprise). This corporation, having received in 2007 the license for exploration and extraction of gas there, remains up till present the sole foreign company, extracting gas in Turkmenistan. Like in other republics of the CA, Beijing uses there the mechanism of providing beneficial credits for various projects. For instance, in 2009 the CPR became the biggest creditor of Turkmenistan. At the same time,
KNNK, like companies of South Korea and UAE, won the international tender for the total sum of $9.7 related to different contracts. In December 2009, Turkmenistan and China signed a package of new beneficial agreements mainly on development of transport and communication.
For 2009, the alternative direction of the Turkmen's gas export -to neighboring Iran - was being extended. In July 2009, Ashghabad and Tehran concluded the agreement on construction and putting into operation of the second gas pipeline for gas shipment from Turkmenistan to Iran. Finally, the diversification of export routs for "blue fuel" (gas) was supposed to ensure the widely discussed in the republic construction of gas pipeline "Nabucco" in order to ship gas directly to Europe round Russia. The implementation of this project reflects the old wish of the EU and the USA. Brussels with greater attention examines the energy resources of Turkmenistan, and many European companies are ready to make investments in exploration and extraction of gas. The coincidence of interests of Turkmenistan and the European Union resulted in 2009 in intensification of relations at the inter-state level and in the partner ties between separate companies of European countries and Turkmenistan.
In November 2009, G. Berdymukhamedov made his official visit to Italy; as a result of the visit, the inter-government agreements (for instance, the agreement on support and protection of investments) and contracts with big companies were concluded. In particular, there was signed the memorandum on mutual understanding between the state agency for governance and use of hydrocarbon resources under the president of the RT and corporation ENI, which, as expected, will be the first Italian company to go to the Turkmen market. Besides, in 2009, there was signed the memorandum on the long-term cooperation with one of the biggest European companies - German firm "RWE AG".
Turkmenistan concluded with this company the agreement on division of production in the course of development of one of the oil-gas blocks in the Caspian shelf. The proposals for development of sea deposits were made by French companies Total and CDF, by energy holding BP, by Austrian company OMV.
Lately, in the course of search for investments Asghabad pays great attention to development of relations with Japan. The Japanese capital already implements 23 investment projects; the most active work is carried out by the following companies in the Turkmen market, which opened their representative offices in the republic: "ITOCHU Corporation", "IGC Corp.", "Foreign Trade Company Abdul Hadi". In December 2009, G. Berdymukhamedov made his first official visit to Japan with the objective to attract new Japanese investments in economy of the RT. In the course of the visit, the ways of mutual actions in the sphere of transport and communication, construction, textile industry and health care were determined. As a result, an expert group was established to determine the main directions of cooperation in the oil and gas and in the processing industries; there were concluded some agreements on investments of Japanese companies for the sake of development of chemical industry in the RT. At the same time, the state bank of external economic activities of the RT and the Japanese bank of international cooperation concluded the agreement on the long-term beneficial credits. As a whole, it is possible to conclude that at present the process of active penetration of Turkmenistan in the world economic system is going on in different geographic directions.
At the same time, the relations between Moscow and Asghabad were formed not in a simple way. The world financial crisis, resulted in reduction of gas demand in Europe and Ukraine, determined the reduction of "blue fuel" purchase by Russia in Turkmenistan. In 2009, it was not to "Gasprom" advantage to buy gas in Turkmenistan, since
Asghabad, despite the fall of world prices, did not agree either to decrease the price or to reduce the amount of gas. The construction of the Caspian gas pipeline was actually frozen, although its project had been widely publicized beforehand. However, the complication of relations between Moscow and Ashghabad were determined not only by the consequences of the world crisis (for the first quarter of the year "Gasprom" completely fulfilled its liabilities, purchasing the fixed amount of gas, corresponding to the European formula of price excluding expenses for transportation and marketing of the fuel). Moscow was dissatisfied with the continuing search by Ashghabad for chances to export gas to Europe round Russia. It was reflected in the disagreement between Moscow and Ashghabad on the issue of construction of the internal gas pipeline East-West, which would let connect the deposits in the eastern districts of the country with the shore of the Caspian Sea. Moscow demanded the guarantee that the gas would be shipped by this pipeline to the Caspian pipeline and would reach Europe through Russia, while "Gasprom" would become not only the investor but also the operator of the pipe. However, G.Berdymukhamedov in the course of his visit to Moscow in March 2009 refused to give such guarantee, and therefore in perspective such position might make pipeline East-West the first link of pipeline "Nabucco". Besides, Ashghabad declared the international tender for this project. In response, "Gasprom" informed Ashghabad on its intention to decrease four times the purchase of gas.
Meanwhile, the deterioration of relations with Asghabad does not correspond to the future plans of Moscow. The geopolitical deliberations demand maintenance of sustainable ties with the republic, which experiences influence of other external partners. In December 2009, D. Medvedev visited Ashghabad; this visit settled the issue and concluded the negotiations, going on for the whole year both at the
highest level and at the level of economic subjects. Turkmenistan and Russia agreed to resume in January 2010 the supplies of Turkmen fuel. The compromise was achieved on the question of price: its formula should correspond to the conditions of the European gas market. As a whole, in 2010 the Turkmen gas will cost for "Gasprom" cheaper mainly owing to reduction of the amount of its supply (previously, under the contracts, the annual purchases accounted for 50 billion cubic meters). At the same time, some experts think that the new agreement corresponds, first of all, to the political aspirations of Moscow, since actually it is more profitable for "Gasprom" to buy cheaper gas from Russian independent producers, which were raising the amount of its extraction.
The agreements on Turkmen pipelines seem to be significant. First, it was planned to continue cooperation in construction of the Caspian gas pipeline, destined for extension of supplies of Turkmen gas through Russia to Europe. Second, it was agreed to intensify activities of the RF in laying internal gas pipeline East-West, which for a long time had been point of discord in relations of two countries. Meanwhile, one paragraph of the agreement provided for concerted position with the RF concerning new directions of Turkmen gas to the markets of Europe. The decision was also taken on the intensified participation of Russian companies in supplying with the modern equipment the leading branches of economy of the RT, which founded its reflection in the agreement on extension of strategic cooperation in the sphere of energy and engineering industry. At the same time, it was intended to involve Russian companies in implementation of projects in the oil and oil refining industries, including development of hydrocarbon resources of the Turkmen sector of the Caspian Sea and also creation of infrastructure for shipment of oil and oil refining products. A great role
in technical renovation of Turkmen economy is devoted to the Russian state corporation "Rostehnologii".
"Rossiya i novye gosudarstva Evrazii", M., 2010, N1, p. 84-89.
E. Kuzmina,
candidate of the political sciences THE PECULIARITIES OF THE INTERNAL POLITICAL AND THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION IN THE CENTRAL ASIA
The Central Asia, which has passed the eighteenth period of consolidation of new independent states, is one of the new geopolitical regions of the world, having impact on the world processes. They excite a rather great interest of the world and regional political actors. The analysis, presented below, describes the internal political peculiarities of the region, which promote or hinder its unification. Since the Central Asian region is at the stage of consolidation, it is necessary to analyze the interests and capabilities of big foreign policy actors, having impact on shaping regional unity. The countries of the Central Asian region differ in political and social system, type of economy, strategic priorities in the foreign policy. However, there exist essential common features of the political development of the region's states.
After disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Central Asian states have passed a rather long way of formation of their statehood. In terms of territory, these state entities finished this formation as the union republics of the USSR for the period of 1924-1936. Up to the second part of the XIX century there existed three multinational states on the territory of the Central Asia: Bukhara emirate, Kokand and Khiva khanates, which did not relate to the areas of the national settlement. Later, a great part of these territories became the components of the
